I guess the question is what if pitch 1 or 2 is the only pitch in the AB you could drive? The elite guys will throw whatever they want in whatever count they want. And they usually go 6 regardless of your approach.

I'm pro taking some pitches, but I also understand the idea of hit the best pitch against elite pitching, especially if you are a good-to-great hitter. Taking pitches might only cap their outing at 6 innings.

Beat40 said:

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I guess the question is what if pitch 1 or 2 is the only pitch in the AB you could drive? The elite guys will throw whatever they want in whatever count they want. And they usually go 6 regardless of your approach.

I'm pro taking some pitches, but I also understand the idea of hit the best pitch against elite pitching, especially if you are a good-to-great hitter. Taking pitches might only cap their outing at 6 innings.

---

Given Altuve's proclivities to swing away early in the count, I doubt any decent pitcher is throwing him anything worth hitting in those first couple of pitches. If they do, they are a fool. He seems to swing at a lot of fastballs way above the zone, and sliders way outside on P1. I wonder if statcast has the ability to tell us which team swings at the most pitches that would be called balls? I would bet we are way up there.

Bregman killed the 8th last night by swinging at the first pitch as TK was in the middle of saying the reliever was wild and Alex could work a walk, so I suspect the braindead hacking approach is more contagious than the reverse.

txags92 said:

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Beat40 said:

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I guess the question is what if pitch 1 or 2 is the only pitch in the AB you could drive? The elite guys will throw whatever they want in whatever count they want. And they usually go 6 regardless of your approach.

I'm pro taking some pitches, but I also understand the idea of hit the best pitch against elite pitching, especially if you are a good-to-great hitter. Taking pitches might only cap their outing at 6 innings.

---

Given Altuve's proclivities to swing away early in the count, I doubt any decent pitcher is throwing him anything worth hitting in those first couple of pitches. If they do, they are a fool. He seems to swing at a lot of fastballs way above the zone, and sliders way outside on P1. I wonder if statcast has the ability to tell us which team swings at the most pitches that would be called balls? I would bet we are way up there.

---

Check out the below. I set it to the entire league, all balls in play and strikeouts for everything outside of the zone.

There are some big names on the list. Astros have 2 in the top 10, Altuve (3) and Diaz (9). Ohtani is top 20. Outside of Altuve and Diaz, the next Astro on the list is Yordan at 40.

Astros are #5 at swinging at putting balls in play outside the zone. Lot of playoff teams in top 10, specifically 5-10.

Chases outside zone

Chases outside zone by team


I think the link below is the page you're really looking for. You can sort multiple columns - from chase, whiff, 1st pitch swinnging, etc. You can make numbers say whatever you want to say, but if you look at chase %, while the Astros are really high, there are some other solid playoff teams in the top 10. Also some in the lower 3rd. My takeaway is chasing is all over the board and not a great thing to base an offense off of.

Plate Discipline

they haven't been playing well since they swept the Royals

ifs and buts candies and nuts

don't get swept by the Reds and we're in immeasurably better shape

that happened this month

cone said:

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consider for a moment that this team is really not that great

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Dont we have the third or fourth best record in the AL since the all star? And the two best records are like the tigers and A's?


Sure, this team has issues….but they can out it together and go on a run….will they? I sure hope so


Consider that the history of mlb playoffs is littered with GREAT regular season teams that faltered in the post season and average to good regular season teams that went on a post season tear

just my opinion

they don't have the bats and the pen isn't deep enough

starting pitching is fine, good enough

top half of the order is fine

bottom half of the order is just woeful

There are no great teams in the AL.

Baltimore probably has the most talent, especially on offense, but their staff beyond Burnes and the kid from Houston is sus. And they're relying on Craig Kimbrel in the bully.

The Jankees have one of the greatest power combinations in a long time in Judge and SOto, and Chisholm has been great since the trade, but is that enough? And is there any indication Judge will perform in the post-season?

Everyone but Cleveland in the Central is betwteen +8 and +11 in wins thanks to the White Sox, they are all .500 teams without Chicago.

Cleveland has a balanced offense, but only one guy hitting above .275. Their closer is the greatest thing since prime Eckersley this year (46 saves,, 0.63 ERA) and Tim Herrin is almost as good as the setup guy, but in a longer series, they have 2 starters they can rely on (Bibbee and Lively) but neither one has ever pitched in the playoffs, and after those two, they've only one other starter to even get to 100 innings this year.

The Astros will have to really lean on the vets who have performed in the post-season- Altuve, Bregs, Yordan, Framber, Tucker, Pena, Pressley - and hope they get something special from someone else

Hopefully Hader has something in the tank for the playoffs. In '22 ith the Padres he was brilliant in 3 series, a 0.00 ERA across 5 appearances.

for sure

get hot

it's hard not to compare to 2022 which was just an all-time great team

Beat40 said:

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txags92 said:

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Beat40 said:

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I guess the question is what if pitch 1 or 2 is the only pitch in the AB you could drive? The elite guys will throw whatever they want in whatever count they want. And they usually go 6 regardless of your approach.

I'm pro taking some pitches, but I also understand the idea of hit the best pitch against elite pitching, especially if you are a good-to-great hitter. Taking pitches might only cap their outing at 6 innings.

---

Given Altuve's proclivities to swing away early in the count, I doubt any decent pitcher is throwing him anything worth hitting in those first couple of pitches. If they do, they are a fool. He seems to swing at a lot of fastballs way above the zone, and sliders way outside on P1. I wonder if statcast has the ability to tell us which team swings at the most pitches that would be called balls? I would bet we are way up there.

---

Check out the below. I set it to the entire league, all balls in play and strikeouts for everything outside of the zone.

There are some big names on the list. Astros have 2 in the top 10, Altuve (3) and Diaz (9). Ohtani is top 20. Outside of Altuve and Diaz, the next Astro on the list is Yordan at 40.

Astros are #5 at swinging at putting balls in play outside the zone. Lot of playoff teams in top 10, specifically 5-10.

Chases outside zone

Chases outside zone by team


I think the link below is the page you're really looking for. You can sort multiple columns - from chase, whiff, 1st pitch swinnging, etc. You can make numbers say whatever you want to say, but if you look at chase %, while the Astros are really high, there are some other solid playoff teams in the top 10. Also some in the lower 3rd. My takeaway is chasing is all over the board and not a great thing to base an offense off of.

Plate Discipline

---

When you sort that "chases outside zone by team" by percentage instead of raw #, we are only behind Miami in percentage chased outside the zone. We see fewer pitches than pretty much any other team and swing and miss at a higher percentage on pitches outside of the zone than anybody except Miami. Those metrics ought to get Cintron fired by themselves.

ETA: And having the 3rd highest chase % and highest first pitch swing % just paints the picture of an undisciplined set of batters to me. The fact that we swing that much at crap pitches, yet aren't highest in meatball swing % also suggests we aren't seeing enough pitches from a pitcher to know the difference. The real impact of watching pitches comes in either letting a pitcher with bad control give you free baserunners, or in later at bats, having seen all of his pitches, you know what you are looking for. When you get two outs on 3-4 pitches in your first 2 at bats against a guy, you still don't know what you are looking for when you see him again for the 3rd time.

Astros are swapping relievers today. Shawn Dubin is coming up for Seth Martinez, who was optioned after last night’s game.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) September 24, 2024

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Astros are swapping relievers today. Shawn Dubin is coming up for Seth Martinez, who was optioned after last night’s game.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) September 24, 2024

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Should have sent Turd Ferguson down instead. I hope to God they keep him off the playoff roster so Joe isn't able t trot him out there in a 1-run game. Give his spot to JV if you want. I would trust JV to come out of the pen before I would trust Ferguson at this point.

Good pitching plays in the playoffs and the Astros have great pitching.

They don't need to out slug anyone.

The elite pitching, ample playoff experience, and veteran leadership are all huge weapons that what will help this team make a playoff run.

I am a little weary of Joe's BP management. I have no problem avoiding the high leverage guys when not in the lead (like last night) but in the playoffs that strategy kinda goes out the window. You may be forced to throw your studs in close games even though you may not be winning. In a short series every little bit helps and you can't afford to hold guys back. That does worry me a bit.

tjack16 said:

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I personally don't think we have enough to win 3 straight series to get to the World Series

I'd pick us against anybody in the wild card, and then I'd give us the slight edge over Cleveland just given our "been there done that" experience.

However unless there's an upset in an earlier round I don't see us out slugging New York or Baltimore in an ALCS. Especially if our offense does what it tends to do and not hit with RISP. Also our bullpen maybe has good stats but they've been making me very weary the past few weeks

My prediction would be losing the ALCS to either New York/Baltimore in 6 games

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I'm pretty much with you, but I think getting through the WC series will be tough depending on who we play. And of course whether Yordan comes back. He's obviously a critical piece of the lineup. It seems without him there is a steep and early drop off.

txags92 said:

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Beat40 said:

---

txags92 said:

---

Beat40 said:

---

I guess the question is what if pitch 1 or 2 is the only pitch in the AB you could drive? The elite guys will throw whatever they want in whatever count they want. And they usually go 6 regardless of your approach.

I'm pro taking some pitches, but I also understand the idea of hit the best pitch against elite pitching, especially if you are a good-to-great hitter. Taking pitches might only cap their outing at 6 innings.

---

Given Altuve's proclivities to swing away early in the count, I doubt any decent pitcher is throwing him anything worth hitting in those first couple of pitches. If they do, they are a fool. He seems to swing at a lot of fastballs way above the zone, and sliders way outside on P1. I wonder if statcast has the ability to tell us which team swings at the most pitches that would be called balls? I would bet we are way up there.

---

Check out the below. I set it to the entire league, all balls in play and strikeouts for everything outside of the zone.

There are some big names on the list. Astros have 2 in the top 10, Altuve (3) and Diaz (9). Ohtani is top 20. Outside of Altuve and Diaz, the next Astro on the list is Yordan at 40.

Astros are #5 at swinging at putting balls in play outside the zone. Lot of playoff teams in top 10, specifically 5-10.

Chases outside zone

Chases outside zone by team


I think the link below is the page you're really looking for. You can sort multiple columns - from chase, whiff, 1st pitch swinnging, etc. You can make numbers say whatever you want to say, but if you look at chase %, while the Astros are really high, there are some other solid playoff teams in the top 10. Also some in the lower 3rd. My takeaway is chasing is all over the board and not a great thing to base an offense off of.

Plate Discipline

---

When you sort that "chases outside zone by team" by percentage instead of raw #, we are only behind Miami in percentage chased outside the zone. We see fewer pitches than pretty much any other team and swing and miss at a higher percentage on pitches outside of the zone than anybody except Miami. Those metrics ought to get Cintron fired by themselves.

---

txags92 said:

---

Beat40 said:

---

txags92 said:

---

Beat40 said:

---

I guess the question is what if pitch 1 or 2 is the only pitch in the AB you could drive? The elite guys will throw whatever they want in whatever count they want. And they usually go 6 regardless of your approach.

I'm pro taking some pitches, but I also understand the idea of hit the best pitch against elite pitching, especially if you are a good-to-great hitter. Taking pitches might only cap their outing at 6 innings.

---

Given Altuve's proclivities to swing away early in the count, I doubt any decent pitcher is throwing him anything worth hitting in those first couple of pitches. If they do, they are a fool. He seems to swing at a lot of fastballs way above the zone, and sliders way outside on P1. I wonder if statcast has the ability to tell us which team swings at the most pitches that would be called balls? I would bet we are way up there.

---

Check out the below. I set it to the entire league, all balls in play and strikeouts for everything outside of the zone.

There are some big names on the list. Astros have 2 in the top 10, Altuve (3) and Diaz (9). Ohtani is top 20. Outside of Altuve and Diaz, the next Astro on the list is Yordan at 40.

Astros are #5 at swinging at putting balls in play outside the zone. Lot of playoff teams in top 10, specifically 5-10.

Chases outside zone

Chases outside zone by team


I think the link below is the page you're really looking for. You can sort multiple columns - from chase, whiff, 1st pitch swinnging, etc. You can make numbers say whatever you want to say, but if you look at chase %, while the Astros are really high, there are some other solid playoff teams in the top 10. Also some in the lower 3rd. My takeaway is chasing is all over the board and not a great thing to base an offense off of.

Plate Discipline

---

When you sort that "chases outside zone by team" by percentage instead of raw #, we are only behind Miami in percentage chased outside the zone. We see fewer pitches than pretty much any other team and swing and miss at a higher percentage on pitches outside of the zone than anybody except Miami. Those metrics ought to get Cintron fired by themselves.

ETA: And having the 3rd highest chase % and highest first pitch swing % just paints the picture of an undisciplined set of batters to me. The fact that we swing that much at crap pitches, yet aren't highest in meatball swing % also suggests we aren't seeing enough pitches from a pitcher to know the difference. The real impact of watching pitches comes in either letting a pitcher with bad control give you free baserunners, or in later at bats, having seen all of his pitches, you know what you are looking for. When you get two outs on 3-4 pitches in your first 2 at bats against a guy, you still don't know what you are looking for when you see him again for the 3rd time.

---

Those aren't just swings and misses. That included hits, balls in play for outs, and strike outs. Respectively, the Astros are 1st in hitting balls outside the zone, 3rd in putting balls in play for outs outside the zone, and 21st in strikeouts outside the zone.

They do absolutely swing at more pitches outside of the zone than most teams. While resulting in more hits than every other team, it also results in a high number of outs. They definitely aren't just striking out outside the zone.

You also have to take that in the whole of offensive performance as compared to the league. Despite all of what you said, the Astros offense is still in the top 10 in a lot of important categories. The Astros are 8th in OPS when compared to the league. They are 10th in the league in runs scored. 3rd least in strikeouts. Unfortunately, 4th least in BBs.

Could they be better? Sure. But what you are ignoring is that there are playoff teams doing similar things as the Astros, and some that are not. It's all over when you actually look at it.

The question is, which approach will win post-season games? Will actually be interesting to compare these tables to which teams make deep runs this post-season.

tjack16 said:

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I personally don't think we have enough to win 3 straight series to get to the World Series

I'd pick us against anybody in the wild card, and then I'd give us the slight edge over Cleveland just given our "been there done that" experience.

However unless there's an upset in an earlier round I don't see us out slugging New York or Baltimore in an ALCS. Especially if our offense does what it tends to do and not hit with RISP. Also our bullpen maybe has good stats but they've been making me very weary the past few weeks

My prediction would be losing the ALCS to either New York/Baltimore in 6 games

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They good thing is you don't have to outslug them. You have to outpitch them. I'd put Astros pitching up against New York or Balitmore any day, especially the starters.

From there, it's timely hits. It's post-season baseball, anything can happen.

cone said:

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just my opinion

they don't have the bats and the pen isn't deep enough

starting pitching is fine, good enough

top half of the order is fine

bottom half of the order is just woeful

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This undersells our team.

AL Bullpen ERA (2nd Half) / xFIP (2nd Half)
1. CLE - 2.61 (2.59) / 3.67 (3.85)
4. NYY - 3.60 (3.80) / 3.97 (3.75)
5. DET - 3.60 (3.04) / 4.03 (3.92)
8. HOU - 3.66 (3.56) / 3.98 (3.90)
11. SEA - 3.71 (3.79) / 3.92 (3.91)
19. BAL - 4.12 (4.61) / 3.95 (3.76)
20. MIN - 4.16 (5.11) / 3.90 (3.82)
23. KCR - 4.33 (4.53) / 4.35 (3.99)

Unless you're CLE, bullpens are fairly similar. At least NYY, DET, HOU, & SEA are. BAL, MIN, & KCR are a step down.

High Leverage RP Only wOBA (Since Aug1)
1. CLE - .214 (.256)
3. NYY - .259 (.253)
12. DET - .297 (.286)
15. HOU - .305 (.309)
16. BAL - .305 (.269)
17. SEA - .306 (.340)
19. MIN - .311 (.310)
28. KCR - .357 (.366)

Again, CLE is the best. NYY is up there. The rest is fairly similar except for KCR.

I won't go into SP too much, but "good enough" is technically accurate. I would say elite.
2nd Half - #2 ERA, #1 FIP, #2 xFIP, #1 WAR, #2 IP

Bottom 3 of the order for AL Playoff Contenders
4. SEA - 99
6. BAL - 98
8. MIN - 97
13. NYY - 88
15. KCR - 85
16. HOU - 84
19. CLE - 80
26. DET - 72

Bottom 4
3. BAL - 101
4. SEA - 101
7. MIN - 98
8. HOU - 95
13. NYY - 92
18. CLE - 86
19. KCR - 86
27. DET - 73

Keep in mind, there are a lot of Abreu, Chas, Dezenzo, Leon, etc PAs in our bottom 3-4 that won't be there in the postseason. I put this out yesterday, but our bottom 3 will be a mix of Pena, Meyers, and Dubon/Heyward. I would argue no one in the AL is clearly superior there.

Beat40 said:

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tjack16 said:

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I personally don't think we have enough to win 3 straight series to get to the World Series

I'd pick us against anybody in the wild card, and then I'd give us the slight edge over Cleveland just given our "been there done that" experience.

However unless there's an upset in an earlier round I don't see us out slugging New York or Baltimore in an ALCS. Especially if our offense does what it tends to do and not hit with RISP. Also our bullpen maybe has good stats but they've been making me very weary the past few weeks

My prediction would be losing the ALCS to either New York/Baltimore in 6 games

---

They good thing is you don't have to outslug them. You have to outpitch them. I'd put Astros pitching up against New York or Balitmore any day, especially the starters.

From there, it's timely hits. It's post-season baseball, anything can happen.

---

We might need to refresh our view on BAL. They have slowed down a ton.

2nd Half
.239 / .316 / .404 / .720 (BAL)
vs
.263 / .323 / .420 / .743 (HOU)

the general issue...

the Astros' championship teams...2017 and 2022...won 101 and 106 regular season games

the Astros' runner-up teams...2019 and 2021...won 107 and 95 regular season games

the 2024 team is going to win 87 or 88 games

Beat40 said:

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txags92 said:

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Beat40 said:

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txags92 said:

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Beat40 said:

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I guess the question is what if pitch 1 or 2 is the only pitch in the AB you could drive? The elite guys will throw whatever they want in whatever count they want. And they usually go 6 regardless of your approach.

I'm pro taking some pitches, but I also understand the idea of hit the best pitch against elite pitching, especially if you are a good-to-great hitter. Taking pitches might only cap their outing at 6 innings.

---

Given Altuve's proclivities to swing away early in the count, I doubt any decent pitcher is throwing him anything worth hitting in those first couple of pitches. If they do, they are a fool. He seems to swing at a lot of fastballs way above the zone, and sliders way outside on P1. I wonder if statcast has the ability to tell us which team swings at the most pitches that would be called balls? I would bet we are way up there.

---

Check out the below. I set it to the entire league, all balls in play and strikeouts for everything outside of the zone.

There are some big names on the list. Astros have 2 in the top 10, Altuve (3) and Diaz (9). Ohtani is top 20. Outside of Altuve and Diaz, the next Astro on the list is Yordan at 40.

Astros are #5 at swinging at putting balls in play outside the zone. Lot of playoff teams in top 10, specifically 5-10.

Chases outside zone

Chases outside zone by team


I think the link below is the page you're really looking for. You can sort multiple columns - from chase, whiff, 1st pitch swinnging, etc. You can make numbers say whatever you want to say, but if you look at chase %, while the Astros are really high, there are some other solid playoff teams in the top 10. Also some in the lower 3rd. My takeaway is chasing is all over the board and not a great thing to base an offense off of.

Plate Discipline

---

When you sort that "chases outside zone by team" by percentage instead of raw #, we are only behind Miami in percentage chased outside the zone. We see fewer pitches than pretty much any other team and swing and miss at a higher percentage on pitches outside of the zone than anybody except Miami. Those metrics ought to get Cintron fired by themselves.

---

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The effect of swinging at all of those pitches outside the zone is that the Astros are last in the league in percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone. If pitchers don't have to put it in the zone to get us to swing at it, they won't.

And?

Yeah those may have been better teams but back then we played a lot more games against our crappy division and were able to pad our win totals.

Also, recent history says you don't have to be the best team in the regular season. See 2019 Nats, 2021 Braves, and 2023 Rangers.

Padres are something like 40-17 since the All Star Break. That's reminiscent of the '19 Nats.