***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

985,166 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
bearkatag15
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He's so upset with the Red Sox front office it's hilarious
agproducer
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Other than the top guys -- the Astros could go bargain-basement or reclamation project.

I think Enrique Hernandez could be a nice addition. But maybe I'm just jaded about the year he hit all those bombs against the Astros in the playoffs when he was with Boston.

Also -- Kyle Lewis could be an intriguing project. He's a former first-round pick and won RoY in the Mickey Mouse season. He's had a major falloff at the plate, but could be organizational depth.
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Farmer1906
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Assuming he's willing and able, Austin Meadows.
texasaggie2015
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Farmer1906
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So that's what won the marketing hashtag of the year? It's not bad. Kind of generic.
Nino Brown
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Think it's pretty badazz.

The team that simply will not go away.
Beau Holder
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Yeah, does nothing for me.
koppelman7
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Does anyone have a year-by-year list of the slogans they have used? I can piece some of it together but would love to see a complete list.
Mathguy64
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2017 - #bangin!
2018 - #thanksYu
2019 - #redsoxcheated
2020 - #fiersisadeadman
2021 - #screwcovid
2022 - #suckitRob
bearkatag15
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Mathguy64 said:

2017 - #bangin!
2018 - #thanksYu
2019 - #redsoxcheated
2020 - #fiersisadeadman
2021 - #screwcovid
2022 - #suckitRob


What year was #opentheyankeeletter ?
Project Gemini
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AgLA06 said:

Farmer1906 said:

AgLA06 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Payroll Update:

Payroll is estimated at $254,981,032. I assume we're done in 2024. Our tax bill is going to be ~3.6 M.


Maybe I'm naive, but $3.6M dollar tax bill on 1/4 Billion dollars is a rounding error. And I'm firmly in the camp Crane is anything but cheap. The team is worth exponentially more than when he bought it and has to be way up in revenue with the last 7 year run. I can't see why he wouldn't be looking to hit the next cap unless he's decided to cash out and sell.

What is the tax bill for hitting the next cap? Any idea?
Do you think we need to add more pieces to the team as constructed?

From 237-257 M you pay 20%.
From 257-277 M you pay 32.5% and have your first draft pick from 10 spots.
From 277-297 M you pay 62.5%
297+ M you pay 80%

This is all for 1st time offenders. It's worse if you're a repeat offender.
Honestly, I have no idea. And I don't think anyone will until the trade deadline (which rarely equals value to the acquiring team).

I'd be lying if I said I didn't have my doubts about Pena, and I think we could still get some decent trade value for him now unless he has another so / so year in 2024. Especially if they like Kessinger.

I wouldn't mind a top line CF, but we have a lot of platoon type guys we like on the bench and it will probably be fine if Chas plays 2/3 of the season in CF.

I think I'm pretty comfortable with our arms and everything else assuming Arbeau rested his back, made sacrifices at the altar of Jobu, and saw his chiropractor / acupuncturist regularly this offseason.
I dont believe that Kessinger is a potential upgrade to Pena in any way - name one area besides being cheaper because hes worse. Pena's fielding was off a bit this past year but it wasn't bad. He has shown us that he has top tier range and has a gold glove. With what we have seen as fans, I think its a huge leap to even be discussing giving up on him in our organization by trading him. He was middle of the pack last year in fielding run value for guys who played 1000+ innings of SS. Only half the teams in the league even have a player with that many innings at that position.

Chas has earned a year playing mostly CF and filling in other places, and by the end of the year, very much could be a "top line CF".
Mathguy64
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bearkatag15 said:

Mathguy64 said:

2017 - #bangin!
2018 - #thanksYu
2019 - #redsoxcheated
2020 - #fiersisadeadman
2021 - #screwcovid
2022 - #suckitRob


What year was #opentheyankeeletter ?


That was the 2021 alternate.

2023 was #****ingdusty
AgLA06
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Project Gemini said:



Chas has earned a year playing mostly CF and filling in other places, and by the end of the year, very much could be a "top line CF".
Completely agree. It was more ensuring Chas is playing damn near every day and not Jake or another bench guy. Or bringing in a stud CF so Chas can play left and Yordan can just DH and limit his chances of getting hurt.
Project Gemini
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AgLA06 said:

Project Gemini said:



Chas has earned a year playing mostly CF and filling in other places, and by the end of the year, very much could be a "top line CF".
Completely agree. It was more ensuring Chas is playing damn near every day and not Jake or another bench guy. Or bringing in a stud CF so Chas can play left and just DH and limit his chances of getting hurt.
Yeah, for sure will be a storyline to watch how Chas' year unfolds within the context of Yordan being fragile and Jake/Cabbage performance.
07ag
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Mathguy64 said:

bearkatag15 said:

Mathguy64 said:

2017 - #bangin!
2018 - #thanksYu
2019 - #redsoxcheated
2020 - #fiersisadeadman
2021 - #screwcovid
2022 - #suckitRob


What year was #opentheyankeeletter ?


That was the 2021 alternate.

2023 was #****ingdusty
2023 was GLF: Good Luck, F*ckers
https://ts.la/eric59704
Mathguy64
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07ag said:

Mathguy64 said:

bearkatag15 said:

Mathguy64 said:

2017 - #bangin!
2018 - #thanksYu
2019 - #redsoxcheated
2020 - #fiersisadeadman
2021 - #screwcovid
2022 - #suckitRob


What year was #opentheyankeeletter ?


That was the 2021 alternate.

2023 was #****ingdusty
2023 was GLF: Good Luck, F*ckers
That was the Spring training one. The regular season one showed up April 2.
Ag_07
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agproducer said:



Other than the top guys -- the Astros could go bargain-basement or reclamation project.

I think Enrique Hernandez could be a nice addition. But maybe I'm just jaded about the year he hit all those bombs against the Astros in the playoffs when he was with Boston.

Also -- Kyle Lewis could be an intriguing project. He's a former first-round pick and won RoY in the Mickey Mouse season. He's had a major falloff at the plate, but could be organizational depth.

Not sure he adds much of anything with the bat but I've always been intrigued by Raimel Tapia.

He can play all OF positions has some speed. He was on a pretty good track up until last year when it looks like maybe injuries slowed him down only playing 64 games.

Cheap, versatile, OFer with speed intrigues me
texasaggie2015
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If true, this is a very sudden change of plans from what's been discussed all offseason.
linkdude
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Correa 2.0? I don't think he did any in-season negotiation, though.
Farmer1906
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linkdude said:

Correa 2.0? I don't think he did any in-season negotiation, though.
Depends on the player and GM.
agproducer
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texasaggie2015 said:



If true, this is a very sudden change of plans from what's been discussed all offseason.
Smoke and mirrors?
Farmer1906
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agproducer said:

texasaggie2015 said:



If true, this is a very sudden change of plans from what's been discussed all offseason.
Smoke and mirrors?


I think we may be reading this wrong.

I'm not sure he means more and more innings than previously. But more as in he will still be playing some LF and not be a full time DH. I'd be interested in how the question he answered was phased.
texasaggie2015
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I know they want to give Altuve some starts at DH to keep him fresh this year as well.
AgLA06
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texasaggie2015 said:

I know they want to give Altuve some starts at DH to keep him fresh this year as well.
Definite reality of big contract guys getting older.
Faustus
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bearkatag15 said:

Farmer1906 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:


The last sentence is interesting, not sure how that hasn't happened yet
I might need Mathguy to double-check me here, but this still hasn't happened.

Per spotrac Altuve will end his career with 286 M.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/jose-altuve-8688/cash-earnings/


That looks correct


It's a good thing Altuve doesn't need much incentive.
tjack16
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That $15M (minus taxes and fees) hitting direct deposit after signing must be nice
Farmer1906
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Farmer1906
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The Bregman extension got the wheels turning - what is a good Bregman comp player & money wise. Spotrac has him being compared to Lindor, Machado, & Betts. None of those feel right. Riley & Devers have a higher ceiling offensively and got paid at a younger age. Then it hit me. Kris Byrant.

Thru age 30 (right after Bryant got paid by Colorado)
  • Bregman - 966 games, 4198 PA, 165 HR, 615 R, 588 RBI, .274 BA, .373 OBP, .487 SLG, .368 wOBA, 137 wRC+, 35.2 WAR
  • Bryant - 926 games, 4019 PA, 172 HR, 620 R, 601 RBI, .279 BA, .376 OBP, .503 SLG, .375 wOBA, 134 wRC+, 32.3 WAR

Age 27-29 (right before Bryant got paid)
  • Bregman - .263 / .362 / .441 / 127 wRC+ / 12 WAR
  • Bryant - .266 / .360 / .485 / 123 wRC+ / 8 WAR

Both had declined from their peak season. Bryant's was at age 24. Bregman was at age 25.

Even the Fangraphs batted ball metrics are similar. (again, thru age 30)
  • Bregman: 21.0% LD, 34.9% GB, 44.1% FB, 12.6% IFFB / 45.8% Pull, 34.6% Cent, 19.6% Oppo / 16.1% Soft, 48.9% Med, 35.0% Hard
  • Bryant: 22.0% LD, 35.3% GB, 42.8% FB, 9.2% IFFB / 43.9% Pull, 34.3% Cent, 21.7% Oppo / 16.7% Soft, 47.7% Md, 35.6% Hard

Same for Savant
  • Bregman: 88.8% EV, 17.7 LA, 37.3% HH%
  • Bryant: 87.7% EV, 18.1 LA, 37.3% HH% (the exact same)

If this isn't a weirdly good comp, IDK what is.

Bryant signed a 7/182 M deal after his age-29 season. Bregman hits the market after his age-30 season. 6/156 would get Bregman paid to the same age as Bryant. I could realistically see Crane doing that. Now, will Bregman accept... who the hell knows? I know some people are throwing around 300 M like it's a foregone conclusion. The Bryant money feels a little low for Bregman, but maybe not.
SpaceCityAg05
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The question is whether WE should want to do 6/150 for Bregman, even if he were willing to accept it.

Unlike Altuve, I have real concerns about how Bregman will age.
Farmer1906
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SpaceCityAg05 said:

The question is whether WE should want to do 6/150 for Bregman, even if he were willing to accept it.

Unlike Altuve, I have real concerns about how Bregman will age.
Fair question.

This would be Bregman age 31-36/37. We just paid Altuve for 35-39.

I do think his eye will age well so the built-in high OBP should keep his floor high.
bearkatag15
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SpaceCityAg05 said:

The question is whether WE should want to do 6/150 for Bregman, even if he were willing to accept it.

Unlike Altuve, I have real concerns about how Bregman will age.


6/$150m is an auto yes for me. There isn't a better proven 3B available at $25M/year
Farmer1906
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bearkatag15 said:

SpaceCityAg05 said:

The question is whether WE should want to do 6/150 for Bregman, even if he were willing to accept it.

Unlike Altuve, I have real concerns about how Bregman will age.


6/$150m is an auto yes for me. There isn't a better proven 3B available at $25M/year


Jose Ramirez? He's only making like 20 per.

Also, Austin Riley is getting like 21 but he got 10 years early.
Ag_07
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Ha! I wish Bregs was like Betts.
W
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any comparisons to Kris Bryant are flat out scary

his contract with the Rockies has been a disaster

better pass (hard pass) on Bregman if anyone in the front office thinks he's like Kris Bryant
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