MaxPower said:

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SpaceCityAg05 said:

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I have to think Boras is working to squeeze every last dollar for Monty. I have a hard time believing the Rangers won't cave given how bad their SP situation is this year without him.

Bellinger and Chapman will be fascinating to watch.

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Sign Monty or Snell and trade Framber for a bunch of prospects.

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How many prospects do you think we'd get for Framber.

I happen to think we wouldn't get a crazy amount.

I felt this so much as an Astros fan….kinds makes me want to root for the Chiefs.

#HateUs

MLB owners heard a presentation about how MLB players could play in the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, per @EvanDrellich.

Thoughts on the proposed ideas? pic.twitter.com/ru0BedIVa7

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) February 7, 2024

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/astro-for-life-altuve-signs-five-year-extension/

Here are the ZIPs projections for the next 6 seasons. The front end doesn't seem as good as we expect and the back end is ugly.



I found this a little bit interesting

Quote:

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But the Astros aren't really concerned with the next six seasons, and nor should they be. They're on an unprecedented run of seven straight ALCS appearances, which includes four pennants and two World Series. Altuve will be a foundational piece of the bid for an eighth consecutive trip to the ALCS. If he's healthy, he will almost certainly remain integral to Houston's lineup in 2025 and probably 2026 as well.

After that? Honestly, who cares?

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After almost a decade of dominance, we have permission to decline.

Payroll Update:

Now the Dubon is settled, the CBT Payroll is estimated at $254,981,032. I assume we're done in 2024. Our tax bill is going to be ~3.6 M.

In 2025, we do get some relief, but it's going to greatly depend on JV & Pressly. Assuming both meet their vesting options, arbitration goes up significantly (Tucker, Framber year 3, Dubon, Chas, Garica, Abreu year 2, Pena & Meyers Year 1, and no one is a FA) we're looking at around ~223 M in CBT Payroll with just the guys we have.

That means no Bregman & Gravemen. Everyone else is back. I assume Crane doesn't want to pay the repeater tax (moves from 20% to 30%) and doesn't want to raise the payroll actual money spent. That would mean we'd have around 18 M to play with to replace Bregman's production or shore up any holes. Probably less.

All the excitement of this offseason - Hader & Altuve - likely means absolutely nothing will happen next year besides everyone fighting about Crane being cheap for letting Bregman walk and that there is no extension for Framber & Tucker.

After 2025 is when things get wild. Verlander, Pressly, Tucker, Valdez, Urquidy, Abreu, Montero, & Caratini will all be free agents. That also means a good ~120 M comes off the books. Don't anyone tell you Crane doesn't have money to extend Tucker and Framber.

Farmer1906 said:

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Payroll Update:

Now the Dubon is settled, the CBT Payroll is estimated at $254,981,032. I assume we're done in 2024. Our tax bill is going to be ~3.6 M.

In 2025, we do get some relief, but it's going to greatly depend on JV & Pressly. Assuming both meet their vesting options, arbitration goes up significantly (Tucker, Framber year 3, Dubon, Chas, Garica, Abreu year 2, Pena & Meyers Year 1, and no one is a FA) we're looking at around ~223 M in CBT Payroll with just the guys we have.

That means no Bregman & Gravemen. Everyone else is back. I assume Crane doesn't want to pay the repeater tax (moves from 20% to 30%) and doesn't want to raise the payroll actual money spent. That would mean we'd have around 18 M to play with to replace Bregman's production or shore up any holes. Probably less.

All the excitement of this offseason - Hader & Altuve - likely means absolutely nothing will happen next year besides everyone fighting about Crane being cheap for letting Bregman walk and that there is no extension for Framber & Tucker.

After 2025 is when things get wild. Verlander, Pressly, Tucker, Valdez, Urquidy, Abreu, Montero, & Caratini will all be free agents. That also means a good ~120 M comes off the books. Don't anyone tell you Crane doesn't have money to extend Tucker and Framber.

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Not sure I'd give Framber a big extension. Obviously Tucker we all want to see happen. I hope we extend Abreu as well. After those 2, rebuild through the few farm system guys we have and free agency.

Just FYI the Abreu leaving after 25 is Jose. Bryan will be after 26.

Farmer1906 said:

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/astro-for-life-altuve-signs-five-year-extension/

Here are the ZIPs projections for the next 6 seasons. The front end doesn't seem as good as we expect and the back end is ugly.



I found this a little bit interesting

Quote:

---

But the Astros aren't really concerned with the next six seasons, and nor should they be. They're on an unprecedented run of seven straight ALCS appearances, which includes four pennants and two World Series. Altuve will be a foundational piece of the bid for an eighth consecutive trip to the ALCS. If he's healthy, he will almost certainly remain integral to Houston's lineup in 2025 and probably 2026 as well.

After that? Honestly, who cares?

---

After almost a decade of dominance, we have permission to decline.

---

The concerns for me with Altuve are that he makes some really dumb decisions already at the plate and on the basepaths still in his prime. What does that look like at 37/38? His only comparative in franchise history - Biggio - never stopped being the hardest hustler on the field as he went into his late 30s and early 40s. He still had an .806 OPS at age 38 playing in 156 games and hitting 47 doubles and 24 HR.

Farmer1906 said:

---

Payroll Update:

Now the Dubon is settled, the CBT Payroll is estimated at $254,981,032. I assume we're done in 2024. Our tax bill is going to be ~3.6 M.

In 2025, we do get some relief, but it's going to greatly depend on JV & Pressly. Assuming both meet their vesting options, arbitration goes up significantly (Tucker, Framber year 3, Dubon, Chas, Garica, Abreu year 2, Pena & Meyers Year 1, and no one is a FA) we're looking at around ~223 M in CBT Payroll with just the guys we have.

That means no Bregman & Gravemen. Everyone else is back. I assume Crane doesn't want to pay the repeater tax (moves from 20% to 30%) and doesn't want to raise the payroll actual money spent. That would mean we'd have around 18 M to play with to replace Bregman's production or shore up any holes. Probably less.

All the excitement of this offseason - Hader & Altuve - likely means absolutely nothing will happen next year besides everyone fighting about Crane being cheap for letting Bregman walk and that there is no extension for Framber & Tucker.

After 2025 is when things get wild. Verlander, Pressly, Tucker, Valdez, Urquidy, Abreu, Montero, & Caratini will all be free agents. That also means a good ~120 M comes off the books. Don't anyone tell you Crane doesn't have money to extend Tucker and Framber.

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I have a hard time believing that.

Let me rephrase. Nothing will happen that majorly impacts the bottom line in 2025. We can make trades, do low dollar deals, or do deals that don't start until the next season.

When you return can literally every player on a great team but 1, there isn't a ton to do.

Farmer1906 said:

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Let me rephrase. Nothing will happen that majorly impacts the bottom line in 2025. We can make trades, do low dollar deals, or do deals that don't start until the next season.

When you return can literally every player on a great team but 1, there isn't a ton to do.

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I agree, but Crane has shown his willingness to make a splash if he chooses to. I wouldn't be surprised if he falls in love with someone and says screw the tax.

Farmer1906 said:

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Payroll Update:

Payroll is estimated at $254,981,032. I assume we're done in 2024. Our tax bill is going to be ~3.6 M.

---

Maybe I'm naive, but $3.6M dollar tax bill on 1/4 Billion dollars is a rounding error. And I'm firmly in the camp Crane is anything but cheap. The team is worth exponentially more than when he bought it and has to be way up in revenue with the last 7 year run. I can't see why he wouldn't be looking to hit the next cap unless he's decided to cash out and sell.

What is the tax bill for hitting the next cap? Any idea?

AgLA06 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Payroll Update:

Payroll is estimated at $254,981,032. I assume we're done in 2024. Our tax bill is going to be ~3.6 M.

---

Maybe I'm naive, but $3.6M dollar tax bill on 1/4 Billion dollars is a rounding error. And I'm firmly in the camp Crane is anything but cheap. The team is worth exponentially more than when he bought it and has to be way up in revenue with the last 7 year run. I can't see why he wouldn't be looking to hit the next cap unless he's decided to cash out and sell.

What is the tax bill for hitting the next cap? Any idea?

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Do you think we need to add more pieces to the team as constructed?

From 237-257 M you pay 20%.
From 257-277 M you pay 32.5% and have your first draft pick from 10 spots.
From 277-297 M you pay 62.5%
297+ M you pay 80%

This is all for 1st time offenders. It's worse if you're a repeat offender.

Is LMJ still projected to be out until July? Was having a discussion with a buddy of mine that thought his return would be much sooner but last thing I saw was him only throwing at 80' from a post on here. I haven't been able to follow as closely so just checking in case I missed something.

ttha_aggie_09 said:

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Is LMJ still projected to be out until July? Was having a discussion with a buddy of mine that thought his return would be much sooner but last thing I saw was him only throwing at 80' from a post on here. I haven't been able to follow as closely so just checking in case I missed something.

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July would be on the early side of when I think he is supposed to be back.

Farmer1906 said:

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Just FYI the Abreu leaving after 25 is Jose. Bryan will be after 26.

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Ah ok thanks for clarifying. Obviously I was talking about Bryan. Maybe we still work on an extension for him a year early.

Yeah I'm not really expecting him back this season but just wanted to confirm. Thank you!

Oh how the times have changed!

February 8, 1993
A trio of arbitration cases are avoided when three starters are inked to similar three-year deals. Infielders Craig Biggio and Ken Caminiti, along with outfielder Steve Finley now represent a $32 million dollar investment to go with the $36 million spent on deals for pitchers Doug Drabek and Greg Swindell - a pay-out unlikely to have happened before the recent change in ownership.


The 1993 Payroll for the Astros was $28.854 million. Right in the middle of the pack. Toronto was first at $45.7 million. Colorado, in its first season, had a payroll of $8.829 million.

The top salary in baseball was, you guessed it, Bobby Bonilla of the Mets. He made $6.2 million, Doc Gooden made $5.9 million (all spent on crack), Eddie Murray was at $3.375 million, Bret Saberhagen at $3 million, and John Franco at $4 million, and Tony Fernandez of all people at $2.3 million. That bought the Mets a record of 59-103. Seems a little familiar, yes?

Astros' top 5 salaries were:
Drabek: $4.25 m
Swindell $3.75 m
Caminiti: $3.15 m
Biggio: $3.05 m
Finley: $2.9m

Bagwell was making $655,000. Darryl Kile $247,500. Only 8 guys total made over $1 million for the year.

AgLA06 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Payroll Update:

Payroll is estimated at $254,981,032. I assume we're done in 2024. Our tax bill is going to be ~3.6 M.

---

Maybe I'm naive, but $3.6M dollar tax bill on 1/4 Billion dollars is a rounding error. And I'm firmly in the camp Crane is anything but cheap. The team is worth exponentially more than when he bought it and has to be way up in revenue with the last 7 year run. I can't see why he wouldn't be looking to hit the next cap unless he's decided to cash out and sell.

What is the tax bill for hitting the next cap? Any idea?

---

I agree that $3.6M is nothing given the overall economics. However, one thing that has changed is both the Astros and Rockets are now financially hindered by the declining RSN economics as new owners of the network.

Unlike the national networks (ESPN, FOX, Turner) that announced the joint venture streaming deal, the RSN world will likely be left to collapse under the weight of upside down economics. The losses continue to accelerate with the rate of sub loss actually growing by percentage, not flattening out.

Before the teams took over the network they got their full rights fee, now they will have to subsidize the losses at the network and those losses are real dollars for both teams. So perhaps that is the one thing that may weigh on ownership as it relates to overall payroll strategy going forward.

The Porkchop Express said:

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Oh how the times have changed!

February 8, 1993
A trio of arbitration cases are avoided when three starters are inked to similar three-year deals. Infielders Craig Biggio and Ken Caminiti, along with outfielder Steve Finley now represent a $32 million dollar investment to go with the $36 million spent on deals for pitchers Doug Drabek and Greg Swindell - a pay-out unlikely to have happened before the recent change in ownership.


The 1993 Payroll for the Astros was $28.854 million. Right in the middle of the pack. Toronto was first at $45.7 million. Colorado, in its first season, had a payroll of $8.829 million.

The top salary in baseball was, you guessed it, Bobby Bonilla of the Mets. He made $6.2 million, Doc Gooden made $5.9 million (all spent on crack), Eddie Murray was at $3.375 million, Bret Saberhagen at $3 million, and John Franco at $4 million, and Tony Fernandez of all people at $2.3 million. That bought the Mets a record of 59-103. Seems a little familiar, yes?

Astros' top 5 salaries were:
Drabek: $4.25 m
Swindell $3.75 m
Caminiti: $3.15 m
Biggio: $3.05 m
Finley: $2.9m

Bagwell was making $655,000. Darryl Kile $247,500. Only 8 guys total made over $1 million for the year.

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30 years later

Active Players / Age / Base Salary
Jose Altuve / 34 / $26,000,000
Alex Bregman / 30 / $28,500,000
Justin Verlander / 41 / $43,333,333
Jose Abreu / 37 / $19,500,000

$14.2M vs $117.3M for the top 4 guys. Pretty crazy.

Farmer1906 said:

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AgLA06 said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

Payroll Update:

Payroll is estimated at $254,981,032. I assume we're done in 2024. Our tax bill is going to be ~3.6 M.

---

Maybe I'm naive, but $3.6M dollar tax bill on 1/4 Billion dollars is a rounding error. And I'm firmly in the camp Crane is anything but cheap. The team is worth exponentially more than when he bought it and has to be way up in revenue with the last 7 year run. I can't see why he wouldn't be looking to hit the next cap unless he's decided to cash out and sell.

What is the tax bill for hitting the next cap? Any idea?

---

Do you think we need to add more pieces to the team as constructed?

From 237-257 M you pay 20%.
From 257-277 M you pay 32.5% and have your first draft pick from 10 spots.
From 277-297 M you pay 62.5%
297+ M you pay 80%

This is all for 1st time offenders. It's worse if you're a repeat offender.

---

Honestly, I have no idea. And I don't think anyone will until the trade deadline (which rarely equals value to the acquiring team).

I'd be lying if I said I didn't have my doubts about Pena, and I think we could still get some decent trade value for him now unless he has another so / so year in 2024. Especially if they like Kessinger.

I wouldn't mind a top line CF, but we have a lot of platoon type guys we like on the bench and it will probably be fine if Chas plays 2/3 of the season in CF.

I think I'm pretty comfortable with our arms and everything else assuming Arbeau rested his back, made sacrifices at the altar of Jobu, and saw his chiropractor / acupuncturist regularly this offseason.

Bregxit said:

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bearkatag15 said:

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ttha_aggie_09 said:

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Is LMJ still projected to be out until July? Was having a discussion with a buddy of mine that thought his return would be much sooner but last thing I saw was him only throwing at 80' from a post on here. I haven't been able to follow as closely so just checking in case I missed something.

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July would be on the early side of when I think he is supposed to be back.

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July-ish was the original target timeframe. I have not seen anything that says he is not on schedule.

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I'm factoring in the expected annual LMJ setbacks