Its going to be a big comeback year after the sophomore slump for Pena. He ended 2022 on a mega high, probably didn't understand how hard he needed to work to get back there and had a bad 2023 campaign, and since he has tasted that sweet success he wants it back. The left side of the infield is going to be an iron curtain.

n_touch said:

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tjack16 said:

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Somebody's been working out this offseason…

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There is no way his workout routine helps him as a ballplayer.

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I'm sure it does

But a solid workout routine will not give him better plate discipline or better reaction speeds.

So, post WM, what do think is left for the Astros before camp starts?

LH bench bat?
Back-end starter?
Relief pitcher?
Trade involving an existing starter (Urquidy, etc.)?

Shirley the front office won't roll with a backup catcher and one reclamation project in the pen as the only additions.

Marvin said:

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So, post WM, what do think is left for the Astros before camp starts?

LH bench bat?
Back-end starter?
Relief pitcher?
Trade involving an existing starter (Urquidy, etc.)?

Shirley the front office won't roll with a backup catcher and one reclamation project in the pen as the only additions.

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My guesses we add another arm. I doubt Hicks since we don't want to give a 3rd year. Maybe Rodriquez. Maybe a trade. I think Dana is locked in on not overpaying.

I doubt we do much else. I'm okay with it. We have the 2nd highest WAR to the Braves based on rosters as is and the favorites to win the West.

The biggest potential missed opportunity in my eyes in not adding a Lefty bat to platoon in LF or CF.

Did uncle Mike officially retire yet

I still would like to see us push the tax threshold and get Hader

I have a uneasy feeling about the lineup this year and we need all the arms we can get.

AgLA06 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Yall are some haters.

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I usually agree.

But when you might have just had the worst sophomore slump in recent memory at the plate it doesn't exactly exude confidence that the priority appears to he bicep curls instead of hours of work with a hitting coach to try and be able to recognize a breaking ball.

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Yeah, well without "hey man" managing the team, hopefully the manager will tell him to get his crap together or ride pine. I feel like Dusty took the approach of "just let them work it out" too far, and there was no player that more reflected the downfall of that approach than Pena.

Mr.Bond said:

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The pen HAS to be addressed. You cant lose Stanek, Neris and Maton..... and do nothing

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Two guys that were meh and another that had much better results than his numbers would indicate. I wouldn't expect to replace Neris' results even if we resigned Neris.

When you look at the bullpen, you already have $14M committed to Pressley, $12M to Montero, $8M to Graveman, and potentially $18M to McCullers if he joins the pen on his return. Might be room for one signing, but we'll be plugging holes with internal candidates.

These are Pena's monthly HR totals starting 2022.

2022: 4, 4, 1 (only 14 games), 6, 1, 6, 4 in playoffs in 13 games.

2023: 6, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0 in 11 playoff games.

I still contend there is something besides "I can't recognize and lay off a slider away". Something happened in late May of 23.

Mathguy64 said:

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These are Pena's monthly HR totals starting 2022.

2022: 4, 4, 1 (only 14 games), 6, 1, 6, 4 in playoffs in 13 games.

2023: 6, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0 in 11 playoff games.

I still contend there is something besides "I can't recognize and lay off a slider away". Something happened in late May of 23.

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Add in the OBP those months. He had a good 2nd half without hitting HRs.

Mathguy64 said:

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These are Pena's monthly HR totals starting 2022.

2022: 4, 4, 1 (only 14 games), 6, 1, 6, 4 in playoffs in 13 games.

2023: 6, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0 in 11 playoff games.

I still contend there is something besides "I can't recognize and lay off a slider away". Something happened in late May of 23.

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This is excellent analysis - and exactly the point. His season numbers may be similar, but June through September was brutal and that's a lot longer than a "slump"


I don't even mind one defensive specialist who you hide in the 9hole, but it became completely inexcusable to keep Maldy on the field giving us 2 gaping holes to try to cover in the post season.

Farmer1906 said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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These are Pena's monthly HR totals starting 2022.

2022: 4, 4, 1 (only 14 games), 6, 1, 6, 4 in playoffs in 13 games.

2023: 6, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0 in 11 playoff games.

I still contend there is something besides "I can't recognize and lay off a slider away". Something happened in late May of 23.

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Add in the OBP those months. He had a good 2nd half without hitting HRs.

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His June and July were, to be candid, awful.

OBA SLG
.292/.303
.262/.269

5 combined 2B and 11 combined BB in 42 games.

August was a good rebound. .426/.455. He had 8 2B and 2 3B and more importantly 15 BB.

But Sept/Oct fell off again .327/.346 with 6 2B and 6 BB.

From July 26 to Oct 1 (end of the season), just over 251 PA.

If we get close to that projection over a full season we'll have a top 5 SS.

Mathguy64 said:

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These are Pena's monthly HR totals starting 2022.

2022: 4, 4, 1 (only 14 games), 6, 1, 6, 4 in playoffs in 13 games.

2023: 6, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0 in 11 playoff games.

I still contend there is something besides "I can't recognize and lay off a slider away". Something happened in late May of 23.

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My answers for it is the way he was pitched. It felt like he saw a ton of stuff low and away, both sliders and fastballs. It seems like this year pitchers pitched fastballs in that location and he failed to recognize the pitch enough that he wasn't fouling it off. Pitchers seemed to get a fair amount of "free strikes" on fastballs low and away. He obviously was pitched in other areas, but it felt to me that he was so focused on the low and away pitch that pitchers were able to sneak the inside pitch to him as well.

In short, it just looked to me, especially after brining the toe tap back, he was just caught in between trying not to be a victim of the slider away. It's clear he worked on it during the season.

That's heavily skewed by one month. June, July and Sept his OPS+ was well below 100.

Source confirms: Yankees trading SS prospect Trey Sweeney to the Dodgers for LH reliever Victor Gonzalez and 2B/3B Jorbit Vivas. Move clears 40-man roster spots for Shohei Ohtani and Joe Kelly. First: @Alden_Gonzalez.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2023

AggiEE said:

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n_touch said:

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tjack16 said:

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Somebody's been working out this offseason…

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There is no way his workout routine helps him as a ballplayer.

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I'm sure it does

But a solid workout routine will not give him better plate discipline or better reaction speeds.

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To an extent I am sure it does, but there is also a point where I think you can be too big as a SS. I just think there is a point of diminishing returns on how big he is compared to the position that he plays.

Farmer1906 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Yall are some haters.

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I usually agree.

But when you might have just had the worst sophomore slump in recent memory at the plate it doesn't exactly exude confidence that the priority appears to he bicep curls instead of hours of work with a hitting coach to try and be able to recognize a breaking ball.

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"The worst sophomore slump in recent memory"??

He went from
102 to 96 wRC+
.300 to .302 xwOBA
.309 to .310 wOBA

He was very similar overall at the plate in 22 as 23. He just did it in a different way. Less power and more on base. It's almost like he worked really hard and figured out how to not chase that breaking ball. His K% 8 Whiff% dropped while his BB% rose.

1 photo on Instagram looking pumped means he's not in the cage? How did everyone draw that conclusion?

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You essentially just restated from the highs of 2023 to the lows of 2022 was a catastrophic slump. There was just a bunch of pretty fluff with it to make it sound more elegant. If you have to justify it not being "that bad", it was in fact that bad.

And it fell when we needed him the most and our manager to be thanked later paired him with Maldy to kill a third of our offensive innings each game.

I think we're over analyzing Pena. Very few hitters are consistent month over month for the entire season. There are really just two things that stick out about his two seasons in the big leagues.

1. He over-performed in the 2022 postseason and underperformed in the 2023 postseason

2. His power numbers dropped off in the second half of 2023

That's pretty much it. The guy works as hard as anyone on the team and somehow that's been twisted into a bad thing.

Beat40 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Yall are some haters.

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I usually agree.

But when you might have just had the worst sophomore slump in recent memory at the plate it doesn't exactly exude confidence that the priority appears to he bicep curls instead of hours of work with a hitting coach to try and be able to recognize a breaking ball.

---

"The worst sophomore slump in recent memory"??

He went from
102 to 96 wRC+
.300 to .302 xwOBA
.309 to .310 wOBA

He was very similar overall at the plate in 22 as 23. He just did it in a different way. Less power and more on base. It's almost like he worked really hard and figured out how to not chase that breaking ball. His K% 8 Whiff% dropped while his BB% rose.

1 photo on Instagram looking pumped means he's not in the cage? How did everyone draw that conclusion?

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You essentially just restated from the highs of 2023 to the lows of 2022 was a catastrophic slump. There was just a bunch of pretty fluff with it to make it sound more elegant. If you have to justify it not being "that bad", it was in fact that bad.

And it fell when we needed him the most and our manager to be thanked later paired him with Maldy to kill a third of our offensive innings each game.

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But what you did was extrapolate that slump into questioning work ethic, which is a crappy thing to do regarding Pena. There have absolutely no indications that dude doesn't put the time in. The most important part of what Farmer said was "It's almost like he worked really hard and figured out how to to chase that breaking ball." I saw the same thing with my own eyes. It's fair to analyze things.

Just hate when a guy, who appears to actually work hard and go about the game the right way, gets killed.

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Understandable. But there's a the difference between working hard and actual results. I like him as a player / person, but that doesn't get us wins.

AgLA06 said:

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Beat40 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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AgLA06 said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

Yall are some haters.

---

I usually agree.

But when you might have just had the worst sophomore slump in recent memory at the plate it doesn't exactly exude confidence that the priority appears to he bicep curls instead of hours of work with a hitting coach to try and be able to recognize a breaking ball.

---

"The worst sophomore slump in recent memory"??

He went from
102 to 96 wRC+
.300 to .302 xwOBA
.309 to .310 wOBA

He was very similar overall at the plate in 22 as 23. He just did it in a different way. Less power and more on base. It's almost like he worked really hard and figured out how to not chase that breaking ball. His K% 8 Whiff% dropped while his BB% rose.

1 photo on Instagram looking pumped means he's not in the cage? How did everyone draw that conclusion?

---

You essentially just restated from the highs of 2023 to the lows of 2022 was a catastrophic slump. There was just a bunch of pretty fluff with it to make it sound more elegant. If you have to justify it not being "that bad", it was in fact that bad.

And it fell when we needed him the most and our manager to be thanked later paired him with Maldy to kill a third of our offensive innings each game.

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But what you did was extrapolate that slump into questioning work ethic, which is a crappy thing to do regarding Pena. There have absolutely no indications that dude doesn't put the time in. The most important part of what Farmer said was "It's almost like he worked really hard and figured out how to to chase that breaking ball." I saw the same thing with my own eyes. It's fair to analyze things.

Just hate when a guy, who appears to actually work hard and go about the game the right way, gets killed.

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Understandable. But there's a the difference between working hard and actual results. I like him as a player / person, but that doesn't get us wins.

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I 100% agree with your statement. He may never totally figure there breaking ball out and might not be a whole lot better than 2023 Pena. Doesn't mean he's not trying to figure out the breaking ball.

I think he'll be better than 2023, but I don't expect much but league SS average or just below league SS average. Honestly, until he can recognize the fastball in the low and away location faster, he's going to rarely be in control of his ABs.

Victor Caratini's contract with the Astros will pay him $6 million in 2024 and $6 million in 2025, a person familiar with its structure said. The team is now over the first CBT threshold according to multiple outside approximations.

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2023

The Astros' April 28 game against the Rockies in Mexico City will air on ESPN, MLB announced.

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2023

This is still reliant on arbitration estimations. Also, it doesn't matter if we're in the tax today, it matters at the end of the season. For a team in contention, the odds are we add payroll at the deadline, not shed it.