MaxPower said:
Farmer1906 said:
Not paying an a crazy amount of money and actively getting rid of a player are 2 very different things.
Kyle Tucker is a 4-5 WAR player. I have seen a wide range of $/WAR on FA signings but Fangraphs had 5.5 to 9.5 from 2018-2022. The low end was after the Covid year and teams were hurting. That would mean Tucker is worth around ~34 M for a prime season, and it could be as high as 47 M. We'll be paying him closer to 12-16 M per his last 2 years. On paper we're getting a 70-90 M worth of production for around 30 M. That is an insane value.
We couldn't get the value back in the short term. We might in the long term of things hit. Ultimately we'd be choosing the greatly lessen our changes of winning a title when everything is aligned. I don't see how it could be argued any other way.
I disagree that you necessarily decrease your chances this year. First, you could be getting back some level of proven player at a different position (Michael King?). Second, even if not proven, young talented players step up all the time. Thats where your scouting has to come in. Maybe you see something in a player the other team missed. Or maybe you both know he's good but he's blocked in their org so he's expendable. In some cases, you may even decrease your risk. Maybe you trade a 4-5 WAR player for three 2-3 WAR players who are filling holes on your roster. That makes you less susceptible to injury risk.
I'd also add that while trading a player does not always decrease your odds of winning, letting one walk for nothing ALWAYS decreases your odds. We have lived in a fantasy world where it's normal to replace stars. It simply isn't. You aren't going to walk into a crappy RP for Yordan trade situation every couple years and our quality of first round picks has dwindled drastically since we stopped picking at the top of the draft every year.
You are talking about winning the lottery 3 times. Yeah, it's technically
possible you replace with 3 guys that all hit, but the odds are incredibly low.
Let's look at
a potential lineup for '24
Altuve 2B
Bregman 3B
Yordan DH
Tucker RF
Diaz C
Abreu 1B
Chas CF
Pena SS
Generic Left Fielder
You're taking out a guy that flirts with MVP numbers in his prime to gain prospects that
might produce. Even assuming 1 is an upgrade at LF, you're still unlikely to actually upgrade the lineup.
Now,
Framber
JV
Javier
Brown
Urquidy/France
Pressly
Abreu
There may be some room to upgrade in the pitching staff, and maybe you find a real solid piece to supplement the leverage pen or starting depth. It's still a gamble to willingly remove a player Tucker. Just to close on what Farmer said, you're also sending off a super cheap player (relative to his production) and replacing it with (probably) equivalent salary for (probably) worse production.