***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

1,014,726 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
EastCoastAgNc
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B-Rabbit
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Wtf
Mose Schrute
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EastCoastAgNc said:




Did Rob have a "make stupid rule change" box to check before the end of the year? F***ing pointless. This worked well last year. If anything, add two seconds.

Solution in search of a problem.
MaxPower
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Farmer1906 said:

Not paying an a crazy amount of money and actively getting rid of a player are 2 very different things.

Kyle Tucker is a 4-5 WAR player. I have seen a wide range of $/WAR on FA signings but Fangraphs had 5.5 to 9.5 from 2018-2022. The low end was after the Covid year and teams were hurting. That would mean Tucker is worth around ~34 M for a prime season, and it could be as high as 47 M. We'll be paying him closer to 12-16 M per his last 2 years. On paper we're getting a 70-90 M worth of production for around 30 M. That is an insane value.

We couldn't get the value back in the short term. We might in the long term of things hit. Ultimately we'd be choosing the greatly lessen our changes of winning a title when everything is aligned. I don't see how it could be argued any other way.


I disagree that you necessarily decrease your chances this year. First, you could be getting back some level of proven player at a different position (Michael King?). Second, even if not proven, young talented players step up all the time. Thats where your scouting has to come in. Maybe you see something in a player the other team missed. Or maybe you both know he's good but he's blocked in their org so he's expendable. In some cases, you may even decrease your risk. Maybe you trade a 4-5 WAR player for three 2-3 WAR players who are filling holes on your roster. That makes you less susceptible to injury risk.

I'd also add that while trading a player does not always decrease your odds of winning, letting one walk for nothing ALWAYS decreases your odds. We have lived in a fantasy world where it's normal to replace stars. It simply isn't. You aren't going to walk into a crappy RP for Yordan trade situation every couple years and our quality of first round picks has dwindled drastically since we stopped picking at the top of the draft every year.
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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Coool... Have more pitching injuries.
redline248
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MaxPower said:

Farmer1906 said:

Not paying an a crazy amount of money and actively getting rid of a player are 2 very different things.

Kyle Tucker is a 4-5 WAR player. I have seen a wide range of $/WAR on FA signings but Fangraphs had 5.5 to 9.5 from 2018-2022. The low end was after the Covid year and teams were hurting. That would mean Tucker is worth around ~34 M for a prime season, and it could be as high as 47 M. We'll be paying him closer to 12-16 M per his last 2 years. On paper we're getting a 70-90 M worth of production for around 30 M. That is an insane value.

We couldn't get the value back in the short term. We might in the long term of things hit. Ultimately we'd be choosing the greatly lessen our changes of winning a title when everything is aligned. I don't see how it could be argued any other way.


I disagree that you necessarily decrease your chances this year. First, you could be getting back some level of proven player at a different position (Michael King?). Second, even if not proven, young talented players step up all the time. Thats where your scouting has to come in. Maybe you see something in a player the other team missed. Or maybe you both know he's good but he's blocked in their org so he's expendable. In some cases, you may even decrease your risk. Maybe you trade a 4-5 WAR player for three 2-3 WAR players who are filling holes on your roster. That makes you less susceptible to injury risk.

I'd also add that while trading a player does not always decrease your odds of winning, letting one walk for nothing ALWAYS decreases your odds. We have lived in a fantasy world where it's normal to replace stars. It simply isn't. You aren't going to walk into a crappy RP for Yordan trade situation every couple years and our quality of first round picks has dwindled drastically since we stopped picking at the top of the draft every year.
You are talking about winning the lottery 3 times. Yeah, it's technically possible you replace with 3 guys that all hit, but the odds are incredibly low.

Let's look at a potential lineup for '24

Altuve 2B
Bregman 3B
Yordan DH
Tucker RF
Diaz C
Abreu 1B
Chas CF
Pena SS
Generic Left Fielder

You're taking out a guy that flirts with MVP numbers in his prime to gain prospects that might produce. Even assuming 1 is an upgrade at LF, you're still unlikely to actually upgrade the lineup.

Now,
Framber
JV
Javier
Brown
Urquidy/France

Pressly
Abreu

There may be some room to upgrade in the pitching staff, and maybe you find a real solid piece to supplement the leverage pen or starting depth. It's still a gamble to willingly remove a player Tucker. Just to close on what Farmer said, you're also sending off a super cheap player (relative to his production) and replacing it with (probably) equivalent salary for (probably) worse production.
Farmer1906
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Framber finishes 9th in the Cy



He probably should have finished a few spots higher.
Ag4life80
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While his exit from Houston was petty and immature, Cole has played up to his contract. Quite the opposite of several mega deal players
Farmer1906
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Pretty much.

Since he left:

BadAggie
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Buck Compton said:

Farmer1906 said:

The Offseason has already jumped the shark. Yankees interested in trading for Kyle Tucker.

https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/astros-star-slugger-could-be-surprise-offseason-trade-candidate-for-yankees-pat3

Lol
This is who wrote the article.



Coastal 'journalist' say no more
iamtheglove
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Mose Schrute said:

EastCoastAgNc said:




Did Rob have a "make stupid rule change" box to check before the end of the year? F***ing pointless. This worked well last year. If anything, add two seconds.

Solution in search of a problem.


This feels like a "no one watched Arlington and Scottsdale in the World Series, it must be because the games were a couple minute too long" kind of decision
linkdude
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Old friend of JV is on the move.
BadAggie
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linkdude said:

Old friend of JV is on the move.


A's?



n_touch
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Even the worst player on the worst team in MLB is still a major league ball player.
Ciboag96
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Anyone have a link to that Astros tshirt of the Astronaut shooting the finger like Verlander in Philly?
Mr.Bond
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Ciboag96 said:

Anyone have a link to that Astros tshirt of the Astronaut shooting the finger like Verlander in Philly?



It's Ram Shirts https://www.ramshirts.com/crushcitytees/p/jv-day
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

Ciboag96
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You're a gentleman and a scholar
Beat40
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MaxPower said:

Farmer1906 said:

Not paying an a crazy amount of money and actively getting rid of a player are 2 very different things.

Kyle Tucker is a 4-5 WAR player. I have seen a wide range of $/WAR on FA signings but Fangraphs had 5.5 to 9.5 from 2018-2022. The low end was after the Covid year and teams were hurting. That would mean Tucker is worth around ~34 M for a prime season, and it could be as high as 47 M. We'll be paying him closer to 12-16 M per his last 2 years. On paper we're getting a 70-90 M worth of production for around 30 M. That is an insane value.

We couldn't get the value back in the short term. We might in the long term of things hit. Ultimately we'd be choosing the greatly lessen our changes of winning a title when everything is aligned. I don't see how it could be argued any other way.


I disagree that you necessarily decrease your chances this year. First, you could be getting back some level of proven player at a different position (Michael King?). Second, even if not proven, young talented players step up all the time. Thats where your scouting has to come in. Maybe you see something in a player the other team missed. Or maybe you both know he's good but he's blocked in their org so he's expendable. In some cases, you may even decrease your risk. Maybe you trade a 4-5 WAR player for three 2-3 WAR players who are filling holes on your roster. That makes you less susceptible to injury risk.

I'd also add that while trading a player does not always decrease your odds of winning, letting one walk for nothing ALWAYS decreases your odds. We have lived in a fantasy world where it's normal to replace stars. It simply isn't. You aren't going to walk into a crappy RP for Yordan trade situation every couple years and our quality of first round picks has dwindled drastically since we stopped picking at the top of the draft every year.
If Yordan hadn't signed the team friendly extension and was playing for free agency, are you saying trade him for prospects?
MaxPower
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Is Blake Snell the first player to win more than one cy young yet have fewer all star appearances than cy young trophies?
_veeyah_
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EastCoastAgNc said:


When it comes to situations like this, when the committee wants to change the rules. What exactly can the players do to "fight" the new rule if they don't like it? Or do they just pretty much have to agree to it and just suck it up and play? Or are they like screw it we don't like this new rule we're going on strike.
EastCoastAgNc
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bearkatag15
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Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
GhostWipe15
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linkdude said:

Old friend of JV is on the move.
I didn't even know he wasn't with Seattle anymore. I just assumed he was riding the pine.
Mr.Bond
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EastCoastAgNc said:


This is a good thing
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

JDUB08AG
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I went to an A's game earlier this year. It was an absolutely depressing state of affairs for a major league ball club.
n_touch
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bearkatag15 said:



At least the stands will look full
Farmer1906
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n_touch said:

bearkatag15 said:



At least the stands will look full


And that sounds better than playing in the Oakland.
TarponChaser
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GhostWipe15 said:

linkdude said:

Old friend of JV is on the move.
I didn't even know he wasn't with Seattle anymore. I just assumed he was riding the pine.

Completely random thought- I really like that Brewers uniform. Looks really sharp IMHO.
Mr.Bond
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TarponChaser said:

GhostWipe15 said:

linkdude said:

Old friend of JV is on the move.
I didn't even know he wasn't with Seattle anymore. I just assumed he was riding the pine.

Completely random thought- I really like that Brewers uniform. Looks really sharp IMHO.

Navy and Yellow is a great combo. Same as Michigan
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

jkag89
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Mr.Bond said:

TarponChaser said:

GhostWipe15 said:

linkdude said:

Old friend of JV is on the move.
I didn't even know he wasn't with Seattle anymore. I just assumed he was riding the pine.

Completely random thought- I really like that Brewers uniform. Looks really sharp IMHO.

Navy and Yellow is a great combo. Same as Michigan
Plus the best logo in baseball.
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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The A's to Vegas makes a ton of sense to me. However, I cannot for the life of my understand them approving to build a full outdoor stadium with no retractable roof. Those June through September games in the desert will be hot as hell and will likely draw in the same attendance.
Mr.Bond
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jkag89 said:

Mr.Bond said:

TarponChaser said:

GhostWipe15 said:

linkdude said:

Old friend of JV is on the move.
I didn't even know he wasn't with Seattle anymore. I just assumed he was riding the pine.

Completely random thought- I really like that Brewers uniform. Looks really sharp IMHO.

Navy and Yellow is a great combo. Same as Michigan
Plus the best logo in baseball.
100 percent. My initials are MB so I rock it often lol
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

Mr.Bond
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PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

The A's to Vegas makes a ton of sense to me. However, I cannot for the life of my understand them approving to build a full outdoor stadium with no retractable roof. Those June through September games in the desert will be hot as hell and will likely draw in the same attendance.
It is definitely still warm but it defintiely cools off slightly in evenings there. Day games though..... oooof
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

W
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better to be homeless...than in Oakland
JYDog90
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EastCoastAgNc said:




Brings a brand new meaning to the Swingin' A's.
Formerly Willy Wonka
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