Farmer1906 said:

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Marvin said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Wabs said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Wabs said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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He not worth 100 M. Pass.

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Whoa, whoa, whoa.....$100M? For how many years??

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People are speculating he'll get something similar to Diaz's 5/100.

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Damn that is steep. But somebody will do it. Just hope it ain't us.

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With our payroll, I don't think you have to worry. We're going to have to do things cheaply this offseason. It's not like we can unload Altuve, Bregman, Abreu, McCullers, or JV (top 5 is $$ this seasons).

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Hadn't thought of this... you think anyone would take McCullers just as a salary dump? It would be a big risk since he could always come back and dominate, and maybe a stupid thought, but it's not like he has been of much value since throwing 30 straight curveballs to beat the Dodgers back in '17.

Just a thought exercise... don't dogpile! Haha.

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It would be selling low and I doubt many teams would take on 51 M without knowing how Lance is going to bounce back. I would say that isn't a feasible direction.

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Sure. I was just thinking about how else Dana could use that $51 million for this year and next.

Marvin said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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This interesting.

FWIW whitcomb barely missed mason mcrae’s top 100 list that was published in september, a list that featured dezenzo at 34, matthews at 55 & melton at 93.

mcrae’s one of the very best prospect evaluators in the online industry, which is probably why the red sox just hired him. https://t.co/PUf9LZHkm3

— Dan (@Dan_Martin4) November 14, 2023

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So, going back to this... the Astros only added Corona (#11 prospect in the Astros system according to MLB). Somewhat surprised that Hensley, Kessinger, Souza, Kuhnel, and Ortega were all protected over at least one of Arrighetti, Loperfido, Whitcomb, and Dezenzo. We'll see.

Maybe the league will assume the Astros have nothing of value since the system rankings always say they suck.

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Wait... are those three actually eligible? There's no way right?

BadAggie said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Wabs said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Wabs said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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He not worth 100 M. Pass.

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Whoa, whoa, whoa.....$100M? For how many years??

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People are speculating he'll get something similar to Diaz's 5/100.

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Damn that is steep. But somebody will do it. Just hope it ain't us.

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With our payroll, I don't think you have to worry. We're going to have to do things cheaply this offseason. It's not like we can unload Altuve, Bregman, Abreu, McCullers, or JV (top 5 is $$ this seasons).

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1. Replace Dusty with Espada.
2. Start Diaz.
3. Abreu reverts to career averages
4. Rest, recovery for Framber and Javier
5. LFer in free agency
6. Mitigate bullpen departures in FA

Best possible FA offensive acquisition is Abreu getting his shtt together next season.

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7. Get a backup catcher that plays better defense than Maldy

All reasons we should be better next year. I agree. But its still dont very cheaply.

I could see us playing around in the trade market too. Unload an OFer or SP to free up a little money and 40 man spot for a veteran innings eater or left fielder (instead of FA signing).

No, no they're not. But we do have more than most that are eligible right now.

Farmer1906 said:

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No, no they're not. But we do have more than most that are eligible right now.

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How are they not eligible? Did I miss a rule beyond not being on the 40?

Marvin said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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No, no they're not. But we do have more than most that are eligible right now.

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How are they not eligible? Did I miss a rule beyond not being on the 40?

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Here it is....

"Players signed at age 18 or younger need to be added to their club's 40-Man roster within five seasons or they become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players who signed at age 19 or older need to be protected within four seasons."

texasaggie2015 said:

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Marvin said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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This interesting.

FWIW whitcomb barely missed mason mcrae’s top 100 list that was published in september, a list that featured dezenzo at 34, matthews at 55 & melton at 93.

mcrae’s one of the very best prospect evaluators in the online industry, which is probably why the red sox just hired him. https://t.co/PUf9LZHkm3

— Dan (@Dan_Martin4) November 14, 2023

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So, going back to this... the Astros only added Corona (#11 prospect in the Astros system according to MLB). Somewhat surprised that Hensley, Kessinger, Souza, Kuhnel, and Ortega were all protected over at least one of Arrighetti, Loperfido, Whitcomb, and Dezenzo. We'll see.

Maybe the league will assume the Astros have nothing of value since the system rankings always say they suck.

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Wait... are those three actually eligible? There's no way right?

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Sorry, didn't mean to cause panic (haha).

The players at risk of being selected include "Colin Barber (No. 8), outfielder Justin Dirden (No. 14), catcher/first baseman Miguel Palma (No. 17), outfielder Zach Daniels (No. 19), infielder Shay Whitcomb (No. 25), right-handed pitcher Jaime Melendez (No. 27) and right-handed pitcher Misael Tamarez (No. 30)."

Colin Barber is the one who might come back to bite us. I think he has a lot of potential.

Jaime Melendez was a kid they were high on but he just never really put it all together.. at least not yet.

I won't lose sleep over any of the other guys.

Man

The hope for Dirden seems to have vanished like a fart in the wind

astros4545 said:

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Man

The hope for Dirden seems to have vanished like a fart in the wind

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Dirdy Dirden went and got clean.

Not sure how many OOTP-heads there are in the thread, but I found an interesting dynasty playlist on YouTube recently. It's made in the most recent version, and he does a "realistic" expansion team in Buffalo (with the other expansion being Nashville). The first few episodes are the three buildups years for introducing the minor league system, drafting and signing international FA. He includes the guide he used to setup the league/teams.

Thought y'all might be interested since in the offseason, and the playlist is over 160 episodes at this point, he started it earlier this year and I have no idea how deep he is in the sim.

Happy browsing!
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJ61T7Z3GFRVoauccXiQcBQLIKXu6S4HQ&si=OOHXUA9kWaRE1EYB

Rule 5 is service time based. Basically you can't keep guys stuck in minor ball that have been around for 5 years unless you stick them on the 40. They get a chance to be picked up by a team that will put them in the majors if they haven't made it in their current system. But the teams get the time to develop the prospect in their system for that 5 years, otherwise everyone would just be raiding good prospects working their way through the minor league systems of other teams.

BadAggie said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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%A0

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1. Replace Dusty with Espada.
2. Start Diaz.
3. Abreu reverts to career averages
4. Rest, recovery for Framber and Javier
5. LFer in free agency
6. Mitigate bullpen departures in FA

Best possible FA offensive acquisition is Abreu getting his shtt together next season.

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I agree.

Abreu will be another year older in 2024

probably not much hope for his glove improving, but definitely his bat

Espada needs to be open to the idea of Yainer (5th) hitting in front of Abreu (6th) -- especially if Abreu starts slow again

I'm doing another run of the garden signs today. I have 3 orange, 1 red, 1 black blank available.

If Braves covet Dylan Cease, line up well with White Sox. System packed with young arms. White Sox could covet combination of Owen Murphy, JR Ritchie, Spencer Schwellenbach.

On 40 Man? Ian Anderson or Darius Vines.

Braves likely wouldn’t include Smith-Shawver or Waldrep.

— MLBExecutiveBurner (@HotStoveintel) November 15, 2023

That would be a killer move for them. They need front end arms.

#WhiteSox Aaron Bummer available. Won’t give him away. High ground ball rate, had some rough luck in 2023. Yankees, Astros, Cardinals all need LH relievers.

— MLBExecutiveBurner (@HotStoveintel) November 11, 2023

We've mentioned Bummer on her a lot. Still a great fit.

Patrick probably reads TexAgs.

Right fielder for a right fielder. Ok

Texaggie7nine said:

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Right fielder for a right fielder. Ok

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Hell no.

Judges have more just courts than kings though.

This Judge is getting 200 M from age 35-39.

Will the Giants make an offseason splash? 👀 pic.twitter.com/hdVhtKP4ag

— MLB (@MLB) November 15, 2023

They missed on Judge and Correa. Guess they're not giving up on the big names.

Mathguy64 said:

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They want runners to be able to time the pitchers. This increases the values of OBA and speed and devalues the catcher's ability to throw a runner out.

Teach Pena to not worry about hitting HRs. Just get on base.

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Seems Pena did an admirable job of self study on not hitting home runs last season so he's got a head start. Just focus on the getting on base part

Maybe Pena will even learn how to steal successfully at some point as well.

Farmer1906 said:

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The Offseason has already jumped the shark. Yankees interested in trading for Kyle Tucker.

https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/astros-star-slugger-could-be-surprise-offseason-trade-candidate-for-yankees-pat3

Lol

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I don't necessarily disagree with the concept of trading one of these guys nearing free agency. The only way doing so with the Yankees would interest me at all is if Cashman is so desperate he will let us bend him over a barrel.

If you let a star player walk then are you "not serious about winning"? Seems odd to me that trading a player is giving up anymore than letting one walk out the door. It's worked so far so I doubt Crane will change course now but I do think it's silly to look at trading a star as some form of giving up, specifically in baseball where stars are the least important of any sport.

Not paying an a crazy amount of money and actively getting rid of a player are 2 very different things.

Kyle Tucker is a 4-5 WAR player. I have seen a wide range of $/WAR on FA signings but Fangraphs had 5.5 to 9.5 from 2018-2022. The low end was after the Covid year and teams were hurting. That would mean Tucker is worth around ~34 M for a prime season, and it could be as high as 47 M. We'll be paying him closer to 12-16 M per his last 2 years. On paper we're getting a 70-90 M worth of production for around 30 M. That is an insane value.

We couldn't get the value back in the short term. We might in the long term of things hit. Ultimately we'd be choosing the greatly lessen our changes of winning a title when everything is aligned. I don't see how it could be argued any other way.

Bregman's and Tucker's contract seasons gonna be lit!