Some of those deals seem a lot higher than they should be IMO.

n_touch said:

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Quote:

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33. Aroldis Chapman. Two years, $24MM

Tim: Astros / Anthony: White Sox / Darragh: Angels

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I have an infinite list of VS models and Kate's friends that I have a better chance with than this happening.

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Yeah sure let's pay the one guy who might be more unreliable than Montero more AAV than Rafael

Project Gemini said:

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Terminus Est said:

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Bellinger 12 year 264 million dollar contract? I get the Yankees are crazy and he just had a good season, but locking a dude up until he's 40 after having ONE bounce back year removed from being a complete black hole?

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I think everyone is cool with the Yankees doing this. They totally should tie up half a billion dollars in Judge and Bellinger alone.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see them try and back up the brinks truck for Matt Chapman too

Terminus Est said:

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Bellinger 12 year 264 million dollar contract? I get the Yankees are crazy and he just had a good season, but locking a dude up until he's 40 after having ONE bounce back year removed from being a complete black hole?

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BadAggie said:

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Can he play some LF?

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Well we know he can catch !

There is no way Ohtani only makes $44MM/year, right? Judge is making $40Mm. There is no way he is only worth $4MM more per year than Judge.

I don't see Ohtani going under $50MM/year, even with the injury.

But that's 3 extra years that Judge didn't get.

Farmer1906 said:

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But that's 3 extra years that Judge didn't get.

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That makes the valuation for those contract predictions worse for Ohtani. If you assume the same per year value for Ohtani the hitter as judge, that puts him at $480MM for 12 years. The difference is only $48/MM. Taking that $48/MM over the 6 years they project for Montgomery, that values his pitching at $8MM/year.

If I'm his agent, I'm not letting that fly.

I don't see him making less than $50MM/year with a halfway decent agent unless there are some creative contract negotiations.

The only way I can make sense of the contract predation for Obtani they projected is saying he's the same hitter as judge, so giving him 9/360 and valuing him between Snell, Nola, and Montgomery at 6/168 or7/168 and then raising the years to pull the AAV down.

So the questions are: is he the same as Judge and the same as guys like Snell and Montgomery?


To add on, Trout is 12/$426.5M or $35.5MM/year. That Ohtani projection only has him at $44M/year. Only $9M/ per year for Ohtani over Trout?

The projected deal from these guys doesn't make sense to me. In one way or another, either as a hitter or a pitcher, they are undervaluing him in one of the two.

JPN06 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Yeah the "MVP" is really just the best overall player now. Has nothing to do with team performance

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It always has been. Not just now.

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There are some years where it clearly was the best guy who made his team better.

Namely Kirk Gibson with the 88 Dodgers and Terry Pendleton with the 91 Braves come to mind.

1988
Gibson had 106 R, 25 HR, 76 RBI, 31 SB and slashed .290/.377/.483 and won the MVP
Darryl Strawberry had 101 R, 39 HR, 101 RBi, 29 SB and slashed .299/.366.545 and finished second. Strawberry led the league in HR, SLG and OPS.

A few other players had as good or better seasons than Gibson, including Will Calark and Andy Van Slyke.

1991 NL MVP
Pendelton led the league with hits (187) and batting average (.319) and hit 22 HR with 86 RBI
Bonds hit 25 HR, drove in 116, had 43 stolen bases and slashed .292/.410/.514 - led the league in OBP and OPS.
Pendelton won 274-259

Yankees considering a return for Frankie Montas @GJoyce9 https://t.co/XY6743TJno

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 7, 2023

Soler? I mean, sure.

Am I the only one that thinks the only (major) off season moves we will make are for the bullpen?

I really doing see us grabbing SP or positional players.

AggiEE said:

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Am I the only one that thinks the only (major) off season moves we will make are for the bullpen?

I really doing see us grabbing SP or positional players.

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Sp i wouldnt be surprised if we stay put

We need a LF tho

gambochaman said:

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AggiEE said:

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Am I the only one that thinks the only (major) off season moves we will make are for the bullpen?

I really doing see us grabbing SP or positional players.

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Sp i wouldnt be surprised if we stay put

We need a LF tho

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I want another arm or two, plus a LF. We're losing 3 bullpen pieces and don't really have any relief guys in the minors coming up

This is an ongoing joke. It's not real

Among those Brewers considering to replace Craig Counsell, according to sources briefed on club’s thinking: Bench coaches Pat Murphy (MIL), Don Mattingly (TOR) and Joe Espada (HOU); Dodgers 1B coach Clayton McCullough; Astros hitting coach Troy Snitker; former Brewers 2B Rickie…

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 7, 2023

Keep in mind WAR is far from perfect and more so meant to be general guide to value.

Quote:

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How to Use WAR:

Perhaps one of the most controversial aspects of sabermetrics is the way in which WAR is used. Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. WAR can tell you that these two players are likely about equal in value, but you need to dig deeper to separate them.

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For real? Figured players wouldnt campaign like that till after the season.

Speaking on WAR, I wish savant would release their own version of war that uses their defensive & base running value metrics.

Espada & Snitker rumored with the Brewers.

Among those Brewers considering to replace Craig Counsell, according to sources briefed on club’s thinking: Bench coaches Pat Murphy (MIL), Don Mattingly (TOR) and Joe Espada (HOU); Dodgers 1B coach Clayton McCullough; Astros hitting coach Troy Snitker; former Brewers 2B Rickie…

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 7, 2023

Ags #1 said:

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For real? Figured players wouldnt campaign like that till after the season.

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There have been popular instances where players waiting in the tunnels for opposing coaches, sent texts to other players on teams to talk to coach, etc.

We live in a different and entitled world.

https://www.mlb.com/news/where-open-mlb-manager-jobs-stand-after-craig-counsell-move

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Bench coach Joe Espada, who was a finalist for the job four years ago before Dusty Baker was hired, is seen by most as the front-runner to take over in Houston. But even if GM Dana Brown is sold on Espada as his choice, the Astros are expected to go through the interview process with multiple candidates, giving Brown a chance to experience a managerial search for the first time.

Espada has been the Astros' bench coach since 2018 and has interviewed for managerial openings with multiple teams during the past five years. Promoting the 48-year-old would present a seamless transition for the club, which has reached the ALCS in each of Espada's six seasons on the staff, winning three AL pennants and the 2022 World Series.

Omar Lopez, Houston's third-base coach who has managed within the club's system in previous years, is another internal candidate. Other potential candidates include Braves coaches Walt Weiss and Eric Young, who worked with Brown during his time in Atlanta.

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28. Yariel Rodriguez. Four years, $32MM
Tim: White Sox / Anthony: White Sox / Darragh: Padres
Rodriguez, 27 in March, is an unfamiliar name to many fans. A 6'1 right-hander, he's a native of Cuba. Rodriguez reached Cuba's highest level as an 18-year-old in 2015 and pitched there for six seasons. He worked to a 3.30 ERA in 91 appearances for Camaguey before moving to Japan.
In January 2020, Rodriguez signed with NPB's Chunichi Dragons. He split his first two seasons between NPB and the Dragons' minor league affiliate despite generally solid results at Japan's top level. By 2022, he secured a permanent spot in the Dragons' bullpen. Rodriguez tossed 54 2/3 innings over 56 appearances, pitching to a 1.15 ERA. He punched out 27.5% of opponents against an average 8.3% walk rate.
Rodriguez joined the Cuban national team for last spring's World Baseball Classic. He started twice, allowing two runs in 7 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and six walks. Rodriguez decided not to return to the Dragons, reportedly remaining in the Dominican Republic after the conclusion of the WBC. Chunichi placed him on the restricted list. He didn't pitch professionally in 2023 outside of the World Baseball Classic.
Last month, Francys Romero reported that Rodriguez had been granted his release from his contract with the Dragons. He's since reportedly been declared a free agent by MLB, and MLBTR has confirmed that no posting fee is owed to the Dragons. Rodriguez is firmly on the radar for MLB teams. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported a few weeks ago that the Rays were among more than a dozen clubs to attend one of Rodriguez's recent workouts in the D.R.
Evaluators who have seen Rodriguez suggest he could stick as a starting pitcher, with one indicating he could command between $30MM and $50MM as a free agent. While MLBTR was able to talk to one evaluator who backed that assessment up, information has otherwise been scant on Rodriguez so far this offseason. We feel that he belongs on this list, but our confidence level in this contract projection is not high.

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I'll add Yariel to the notable names. The Astros interest is real.

I kind of hate that 2 of the guys I want (Lee & Rodriguez) both have Yankee interest.

Does anyone know how we view Yariel? RP or SP?

texasaggie2015 said:

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Quote:

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28. Yariel Rodriguez. Four years, $32MM
Tim: White Sox / Anthony: White Sox / Darragh: Padres
Rodriguez, 27 in March, is an unfamiliar name to many fans. A 6'1 right-hander, he's a native of Cuba. Rodriguez reached Cuba's highest level as an 18-year-old in 2015 and pitched there for six seasons. He worked to a 3.30 ERA in 91 appearances for Camaguey before moving to Japan.
In January 2020, Rodriguez signed with NPB's Chunichi Dragons. He split his first two seasons between NPB and the Dragons' minor league affiliate despite generally solid results at Japan's top level. By 2022, he secured a permanent spot in the Dragons' bullpen. Rodriguez tossed 54 2/3 innings over 56 appearances, pitching to a 1.15 ERA. He punched out 27.5% of opponents against an average 8.3% walk rate.
Rodriguez joined the Cuban national team for last spring's World Baseball Classic. He started twice, allowing two runs in 7 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and six walks. Rodriguez decided not to return to the Dragons, reportedly remaining in the Dominican Republic after the conclusion of the WBC. Chunichi placed him on the restricted list. He didn't pitch professionally in 2023 outside of the World Baseball Classic.
Last month, Francys Romero reported that Rodriguez had been granted his release from his contract with the Dragons. He's since reportedly been declared a free agent by MLB, and MLBTR has confirmed that no posting fee is owed to the Dragons. Rodriguez is firmly on the radar for MLB teams. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported a few weeks ago that the Rays were among more than a dozen clubs to attend one of Rodriguez's recent workouts in the D.R.
Evaluators who have seen Rodriguez suggest he could stick as a starting pitcher, with one indicating he could command between $30MM and $50MM as a free agent. While MLBTR was able to talk to one evaluator who backed that assessment up, information has otherwise been scant on Rodriguez so far this offseason. We feel that he belongs on this list, but our confidence level in this contract projection is not high.

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I'll add Yariel to the notable names. The Astros interest is real.

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If we hire Espada, I don't see why we wouldn't be the front runner with the current makeup of our system, ability to win, and then a Latin manager.

My left-handed reliever wish list.

• Matt Moore
• Jake Diekman
• Brent Suter

All 3 should be affordable.

All 3 were in the top 84% xERA.

All 3 can still get RHH out.

Pair one of these with a more high-end arm (Hicks, Rodriguez) and I think you have addressed the bullpen for 2024.