***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

1,023,516 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
Mathguy64
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AG
It's more a case that baseball playoffs favor a team with a hot hand.

2019 Nationals rode the hot hand of the Merle, Strasburg and Corbin

2020 we rode the hot hand to game 7 of the ALCS. But that whole season was a mess.

2021 was correct. 2 really good teams in the WS

2022 Philly rode the hot hand to the WS.

2023 the Snakes had no business beating anyone. They really were an average team with no pitching depth. They played a weak Brewers, a pitching decimated LA team that forgot they got where they did by hitting and Philly **** the bed. And the Rangers had no pitching depth. They rolled 2 starters and 2 bull pen games out there.
Beat40
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AggiEE said:

BadAggie said:

dixichkn said:

Beau Holder said:

Tried my darndest to watch a full Rockets game tonight and didn't see if this has been posted already.


Athletic is behind a paywall. Summary?


Brown holding out for a manager who will work with the front office, play the best players, and Crane wanting to move faster and has 'baseball men' like Bagwell in his ear.




Clearly what was stated previously about FO having control over lineups in the playoffs was absolute BS


No one ever said the FO had control over the lineups in the playoffs. That was something this board ran with when texasaggie2015 said the FO had significantly more input.
texasaggie2015
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AG
AggiEE said:

BadAggie said:

dixichkn said:

Beau Holder said:

Tried my darndest to watch a full Rockets game tonight and didn't see if this has been posted already.


Athletic is behind a paywall. Summary?


Brown holding out for a manager who will work with the front office, play the best players, and Crane wanting to move faster and has 'baseball men' like Bagwell in his ear.




Clearly what was stated previously about FO having control over lineups in the playoffs was absolute BS


This gets so freaking old
txags11
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AG
I hate the fact that we had a chance to repeat and let it slip through the cracks. I hate the fact that the Rangers organization gets to celebrate a world championship. I will say I am excited for friends that have been Rangers fans for better part of 30 years and are getting to feel that feeling we felt in 2017. I still remember exactly where I was, who I was with, everything. But let it be clear, 2024 we take back control of the state and the league!
Farmer1906
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AG


Let's go Dana. Your old bosses are already making moves.
The Porkchop Express
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AG
My advice about the other threads and the next several months.

Mr.Bond
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AG
Just noticed our trigger warning on thread title
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

Mr.Bond
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AG
Scrolling social media I'd say well over half the rangers "fans" I know can't help but take a shot at Houston while celebrating their "well deserved" championship. We will forever live rent free in their domes. It's pathetic
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

mwm
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2-1.
Wabs
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AG
Mr.Bond said:

Just noticed our trigger warning on thread title
Why the **** do we have a staff warning?
07ag
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AG
Wabs said:

Mr.Bond said:

Just noticed our trigger warning on thread title
Why the **** do we have a staff warning?
1. rangers fans trolling
2. astros fans complaining about staff not policing the trolling
The Porkchop Express
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AG
If I started a thread of cheating accusations against the Rangers and wrote in the OP that it wasn't a thread to defend the Rangers from cheating, but only to discuss how they did cheat, would it:

A) be deleted
or
B) get me banned?

Just weighing some options on a boring Thursday
n_touch
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Wabs
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AG
Ok, my over-reactive, impulsive post for the day....

Go out and get Soto, Hader and Snell.

Let's roll.
JohnnyTexAg1995
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Jack Boyette said:

Amazing how the Rangers bullpen was a completely different group in the postseason than they were all year.

Just gotta hand it to them.
They only really used 3 relief pitchers from their regular season bullpen. LeClerc, Chapman, and Sborz. Everyone else was all their starting pitchers from the regular season. Gray, Haney, Bradford, Etc. Were all in the starting rotation. Chapman never had a good outing and got lucky with some double play balls, Leclerc was dominant except for Altuves HR, and yes Sborz did pitch above his Regular season performance by far. The effectively won the WS with only 2 Starting Pitchers
Ag_07
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AG
Bochy managed that BP brilliantly

He kept guys from getting exposed, yanked them BEFORE they got into trouble, avoided the 3 man rule multiple times by changing pitchers with 2 outs in the inning, and used his inning eaters in the right spots.

He impressed me a lot with the way he was able to hide their weaknesses and utilize the hot hands.
PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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If only we had a Bochy. I'll take Espada though.
CFTXAG10
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AG
This just makes the AL West much more exciting. Time to gear up and remind the division and league who daddy is. Lots of work to be done but we will be in the big dance next year. Book it.
JohnnyTexAg1995
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CFTXAG10 said:

This just makes the AL West much more exciting. Time to gear up and remind the division and league who daddy is. Lots of work to be done but we will be in the big dance next year. Book it.
yep! Im disappointed but our worst team in 7 years and the worst luck we have had in 7 years came within 1 game of the WS and we will be much better next season. Next year will be fun
All I do is Nguyen
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Absolutely. I look forward to the games against the rangers now because they should be competitive.
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Wabs
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AG
Ag_07 said:

Bochy managed that BP brilliantly

He kept guys from getting exposed, yanked them BEFORE they got into trouble, avoided the 3 man rule multiple times by changing pitchers with 2 outs in the inning, and used his inning eaters in the right spots.

He impressed me a lot with the way he was able to hide their weaknesses and utilize the hot hands.
Completely agree. He really had a feel for his team - who was hot, match-ups, and bullpen utilization. He schooled Dusty in games 6 and 7. As much as I hate to see it, the Rangers earned their championship and their fans should celebrate it just as much as we did (and talk some smack if they need to).

But success in baseball can be fleeting. There have been way more teams that have won one and then kind of disappeared than have had the sustained success the Astros have had during this run. I think the Rangers championship will make the next few seasons really fun to watch. An Astros/Rangers rivalry is SOOOO much better than LA/NY/BOS.
Marvin
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AG
On to the offseason... ESPN's too-early '24 power rankings:

1. Braves
2. Rangers
3. Orioles
4. Phillies
5. Astros
6. Rays
7. Dodgers
8. Mariners
The Cubs and Jays round out the top 10 with Arizona sitting at 11.

I'll say the Phillies are too high, and I expect the Rangers to regress a bit. Maybe not in wins but in playoff performance. It will be a fight to extend the LCS streak, though. Three AL West teams in the top 8?!

I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Marvin
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AG
JohnnyTexAg1995 said:

CFTXAG10 said:

This just makes the AL West much more exciting. Time to gear up and remind the division and league who daddy is. Lots of work to be done but we will be in the big dance next year. Book it.
yep! Im disappointed but our worst team in 7 years and the worst luck we have had in 7 years came within 1 game of the WS and we will be much better next season. Next year will be fun


Well, the offseason has started well. The Astros addressed their greatest weakness before the WS ended, so that's good news!
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
AustinCountyAg
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Well that was one ****ty World Series. A decent at best D-back team and a streaky Ranger team who got hot in the playoffs. If nobody actually watched the world series then did anyone actually win? Complete snooze fest.

AustinCountyAg
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Rangers wont even make the playoffs next year.
Marvin
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AG
AustinCountyAg said:

Rangers wont even make the playoffs next year.


I suspect ownership will spend on the bullpen. This is their chance to make a run and they better take advantage of it.

I doubt but won't be shocked if they resign Montgomery, and deGrom coming back eventually will be big. I do expect some of their hitters to regress- too many career numbers this season, and opposing pitchers will do their homework.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
AustinCountyAg
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Marvin said:

AustinCountyAg said:

Rangers wont even make the playoffs next year.


I suspect ownership will spend on the bullpen. This is their chance to make a run and they better take advantage of it.

I doubt but won't be shocked if they resign Montgomery, and deGrom coming back eventually will be big. I do expect some of their hitters to regress- too many career numbers this season, and opposing pitchers will do their homework.
this is why I predict they miss the playoffs. All of there hitters had career years, way outside their mean. It won't happen twice in a row.
MaxPower
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AustinCountyAg said:

Rangers wont even make the playoffs next year.
I'm not convinced of that. They should have a good team again. They had a few career years but also a lot of injuries. Some of those injuries are aging players or guys with a history so it will come down to how healthy they can keep those guys. I suspect they also address their bullpen issues this offseason.
Farmer1906
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AG
Postseason Only

Pitcher xwOBA vs wOBA
Rangers - .339 vs .305 (-.034)
DBacks - .338 vs .304 (-.034)
Phillies - .281 vs .256 (-.025)
Astrso - .336 vs .325 (-.011)

Batter xwOBA vs wOBA
DBacks - .316 vs .317 (+.001)
Rangers - .349 vs .340 (-.009)
Phillies - .364 vs .333 (-.013)
Astros - .371 vs .333 (-.038)

Individual Astros

Kyle Tucker led all of baseball in the difference between expected and actual (min 100 pitches)
.346 vs .249 (-.097)

Altuve, Pena, & Brantley all cracked the top 10.

On the flip side Framber, Urqudy, & Abreu were all top 6 in pitcher expected vs actual.

It's better to be lucky than good, especially in October.

Farmer1906
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AG
MaxPower said:

AustinCountyAg said:

Rangers wont even make the playoffs next year.
I'm not convinced of that. They should have a good team again. They had a few career years but also a lot of injuries. Some of those injuries are aging players or guys with a history so it will come down to how healthy they can keep those guys. I suspect they also address their bullpen issues this offseason.
There are a lot of unknowns with them, but I think they'll win another 90ish games.

They lose their #4 & #9 OFF WAR players in Garver & Grossman plus Jankowski. Not a lot but not nothing.

Pitching wise is where they should worry. No more Monty, Chapman, Smith, Perez, & Stratton. deGrom might be back late, but he's kind of an unknown. Max is a year older. The last time Nate pitched 180+, he had injuries the next year. Plus he had forearm issues in 2023.

They're going to have around 30-40 M to spend if they're going to keep payroll similar to 2023. They should be able to replace a lot of what they lost. Young is going to have to show he can reload. They also have some guys that look ready in AAA.

What I am most interested in for them is how guys do after the big year. The following guys just had their best or close to their very best year - Seager (30), Semien(33), Eovaldi(34), Garcia(31), Leclerc(30), Heim(29), & Dunning(29).

1. Can they find the pitching they need?
2. How does the core handle the season after the season?
Marvin
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AG
I was reading different articles on the Astros defensive decline this year and found these quotes interesting:

Quote:

Astros coach Gary Pettis said that Tucker "has a tendency sometimes to stand flat-footed with no movement pre-pitch. When he does that, sometimes he breaks maybe a second later than he normally would. That's all it is, really, with him, it's whether he's on time or not."
The lolligagger fell off a cliff. His outs above average tied Abreu for the team worst.

Quote:

The Astros positioning data (or lack thereof, it sometimes seems) is so, so much worse this year than it was under the previous two front office regimes. It's not just the absence of the shift...the positioning data is mediocre to bad this year, where it was among the best in baseball under Luhnow and Click
To that point, here are a few team defensive stats skipping the Covid year (MLB ranking '19, '21, '22, '23):
  • Defensive efficiency: 1, 3, 3, 10
  • Fielding runs above average: 1, 3, 4, 9
  • Defensive runs saved: 2, 3, 5, 16
  • Errors: 2, 1, 6, 13
  • Outs above average: 1, 2, 2, 11

I look forward to the new manager relying on data instead of feels to fix some of this. Abreu and Altuve are bad defenders at this point in their careers, and Alvarez will not win any gold gloves. But, there is still room for improvement.

I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Marvin
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AG
Farmer1906 said:

MaxPower said:

AustinCountyAg said:

Rangers wont even make the playoffs next year.
I'm not convinced of that. They should have a good team again. They had a few career years but also a lot of injuries. Some of those injuries are aging players or guys with a history so it will come down to how healthy they can keep those guys. I suspect they also address their bullpen issues this offseason.
There are a lot of unknowns with them, but I think they'll win another 90ish games.

They lose their #4 & #9 OFF WAR players in Garver & Grossman plus Jankowski. Not a lot but not nothing.

Pitching wise is where they should worry. No more Monty, Chapman, Smith, Perez, & Stratton. deGrom might be back late, but he's kind of an unknown. Max is a year older. The last time Nate pitched 180+, he had injuries the next year. Plus he had forearm issues in 2023.

They're going to have around 30-40 M to spend if they're going to keep payroll similar to 2023. They should be able to replace a lot of what they lost. Young is going to have to show he can reload. They also have some guys that look ready in AAA.

What I am most interested in for them is how guys do after the big year. The following guys just had their best or close to their very best year - Seager (30), Semien(33), Eovaldi(34), Garcia(31), Leclerc(30), Heim(29), & Dunning(29).

1. Can they find the pitching they need?
2. How does the core handle the season after the season?

I could see ownership focusing on pitching and attempt to reload the offense from within. That combined with expected regression from the career years you mentioned could mean their offense drops off. We'll see what they prioritize.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Farmer1906
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AG
Good post. We were not bad, but I agree, there is room to improve here. Our positioning was pretty damn good before. I wonder what changed. I think Espada was the guy making sure they were in the right positions. Was he not doing it? Was our data bad? Was it just bad luck/variation?

MaxPower
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They also have a very good farm system (much better than ours). That means both that those prospects could contribute in 2024 or be trade bait. Langford has already climbed to AAA and is raking. Rocker and Lester both have high end stuff, they just need to stay healthy.
Farmer1906
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AG
Yes and no. Jung and Carter are already up. Acuna was traded away. Langford is the real damn deal. Walcott is a few years away. I think Foscue can be a nice piece. All these guys are position players.

Pitching wise? I think they have problems.

Porter is in A ball
Leiter hasn't exactly killed it as he's moved up the ranks.
White sucked when he got his shot
Rocker is only in A ball

When was the last time the Rangers developed a good pitching thru their system?

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