What's everybody's thoughts on what happens with Ohtani? I think he'll stay on the west coast. Dodgers or Mariners would be my pick. Maybe SF and SD as outside long shots.

My guess is LAD. I don't think Seattle will pay him. I bet the Mets, Rangers, and Yankees are involved too.

Good post. There's something to "if they were that good, they'd already be up" particularly when it comes to expecting useful contributions from pitchers. And I think Bradford to some small extent showed that for them this year, pitching and playing a role down the stretch. Guys in A/AA with a lot of hype by comparison don't mean much.

The Astros keep spitting out JP Frances and I imagine Gordon or Arrighetti could be one of those guys this year.

Wabs said:

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What's everybody's thoughts on what happens with Ohtani? I think he'll stay on the west coast. Dodgers or Mariners would be my pick. Maybe SF and SD as outside long shots.

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To me it'll be LAD, Seattle or a random east coast team like Boston/NYY.

Dodgers or Yanks for the man from Japan. I'd say 80% LAD

Feels like San Francisco will make a play, too.

iBrad said:

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I know it's been discussed before, but when you look back at the 2023 season, it's amazing we made the playoffs, much less won the division. I don't think anyone would have predicted 90 wins if you knew the following would happen.

• Lost Verlander to free agency (got 11 starts post-trade)
• Lost McCullers for the season
• Lost Garcia for the season
• Lost Urquidy for most of the season
• Lost Altuve for almost half the season
• Lost Yordan for almost a third of the season
• Abreu put up career worst numbers…by far (presumably from his ailing back)
• Brantley had setback after setback and played in 15 games
• Framber and Javier both regressed

• 43 combined starts from France (23), Bielak (13), and Blanco (7)
• 29 starts from Brown, who was our #6 starter if all others were healthy
• 565 combined plate appearances for Julks (323), Hensley (94), Singleton (73), Kessinger (45), and Madris (30)
• 492 plate appearances for Dubon

• 39-42 home record
• 2-7 versus the A's and Royals in September

A couple of bullets from 2022 for comparison:

• 14 combined starts from pitchers other than Verlander, Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier, McCullers (12 for Odorizzi and 2 for Brown)
• 187 combined plate appearances for the AAA/AAAA players

Our injuries, combined with Seattle being formidable, Texas' resurgence, and the Angels being competitive for half the year, it's kind of surprising that we weren't an 85-win team watching the playoffs from home this year. Yet we won the division, made our 7th straight ALCS, and were a break or two away from getting back to another World Series.

I doubt many will have us favored to win the division next season, much less make another playoff run, but I think we'll be back in the 95-100 win range next season, win the division yet again, and put ourselves in position for another deep playoff run.

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tjack16 said:

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Wabs said:

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What's everybody's thoughts on what happens with Ohtani? I think he'll stay on the west coast. Dodgers or Mariners would be my pick. Maybe SF and SD as outside long shots.

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To me it'll be LAD, Seattle or a random east coast team like Boston/NYY.

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What about Yamamoto? Ohtani is going to be expensive, but imagine Yamamoto on the Astros pitching staff!

I don't think there is a chance we get him tough.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/pending-mlb-free-agent-yoshinobu-yamamoto-wins-japans-cy-young-award-equivalent-for-third-year-in-a-row/

He had a 1.21 ERA in Japan with a WHIP under .9.

Buck Compton said:

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agproducer said:

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The Rangers got a real piece with Evan Carter. His performance in the postseason helped spark them.

That being said -- I'm with all you guys about regression after career years. That's not to say the Rangers aren't still a 90-95 win team. It all hinges on what they can get out of their pitching.

I think they work to shore up their bullpen. Leclerc bounced back after the Altuve HR. Good for him. I thought it may break him like Altuve broke Chapman, or when Pujols broke Lidge.

For the Astros, let's go get Lourdes, an innings-eating SP, and bullpen help. We all didn't like having Odo, but he was valuable in eating innings during the regular season. Rat Fiers did the same in '17. You can never have too much SP. We need 8-9 reliable starters total -- we 3, maybe 4. The rest are question marks. JV, Framber, Javier, Urquidy? Brown? France? LMJ? Luis? Blanco? Bielak?

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Hate to tell you but we aren't spending on an SP....

Verlander
Framber
Javier
Urquidy
Garcia
McCullers
Brown
France

Your starting 5/6 + depth comes from there and more spot start depth in Blanco. Only position we will spend at is possibly bullpen, but more likely on a position player and a backup veteran catcher. And what world are you living in where you NEED 8-9 reliable?

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Injuries happen. You need depth. You are counting LMJ and Garcia on this list. LG won't be back until late season, and you never know what's up with LMJ.

No reason to spend too much on pitching. We all know the offense is what let us down time and time again this year.

Thankfully no stupid mother****ing WBC this year. Such a drain on a team that has played more games than anyone else in the past few years.

For position players (edited to add OPS+):

C - Diaz (128)
1B - Abreu (87 - should go up)
2B - Altuve (151)
SS - Pena (95 - gotta figure something out)
3B - Bregman (122)
LF - FA Signing
CF - Chas (130)
RF - Tucker (142)
DH - Alvarez (170)

IF/OF - Dubon (97)
IF - Kessinger? (70)
OF - Meyers? (86)
C - FA Signing

Obviously Alvarez can play left and so can Chas. You need an OF and I don't think anyone in the minors is ready. So sign a LF or CF and fill the rest with what we have. Bench is obviously incredibly weak, but I don't think we have the money or flexibility to address that.

We have among the deepest staffs in the league already. If you lose three SP to injury again, then you roll the dice with what you have. Where are you going to keep 9 SPs? It's just an unrealistic expectation.

And whether or not you know what you're going to get from McCullers or others, they're on the payroll and no way to move them anyway. We don't have the money to go sign another #3/#4 guy just for ****s and giggles.

Best bet to get another SP is to trade what we have (Urquidy/Brown/France) for a bat to make room for him. Which tightens your margin of error with injuries anyway. And then your replacing cheap players with expensive players who may not perform any better anyway.

tjack16 said:

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I'd throw money at Montgomery. If you don't, he's going to re-sign with either the Rangers or a team like Baltimore.

I'd also go after a guy like Hader.

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Yeah, that'd be great. But what money?

Marvin said:

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On to the offseason... ESPN's too-early '24 power rankings:

1. Braves
2. Rangers
3. Orioles
4. Phillies
5. Astros
6. Rays
7. Dodgers
8. Mariners
The Cubs and Jays round out the top 10 with Arizona sitting at 11.

I'll say the Phillies are too high, and I expect the Rangers to regress a bit. Maybe not in wins but in playoff performance. It will be a fight to extend the LCS streak, though. Three AL West teams in the top 8?!

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The Mariners should have an asterisk next to their name that says "Ranking only valid until September 30th"

Buck Compton said:

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tjack16 said:

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I'd throw money at Montgomery. If you don't, he's going to re-sign with either the Rangers or a team like Baltimore.

I'd also go after a guy like Hader.

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Yeah, that'd be great. But what money?

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Crane can get afford to get one of those guys easily. To get both will require some changes.

We will shed $24 MM with Brantley, Neris and Maldonado leaving

Buck Compton said:

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No reason to spend too much on pitching. We all know the offense is what let us down time and time again this year.

Thankfully no stupid mother****ing WBC this year. Such a drain on a team that has played more games than anyone else in the past few years.

For position players:

C - Diaz
1B - Abreu
2B - Altuve
SS - Pena
3B - Bregman
LF - FA Signing
CF - Chas
RF - Tucker
DH - Alvarez

IF/OF - Dubon
IF - Hensley/Kessinger?
OF - Meyers?
C - FA Signing

Obviously Alvarez can play left and so can Chas. You need an OF and I don't think anyone in the minors is ready. So sign a LF or CF and fill the rest with what we have. Bench is obviously incredibly weak, but I don't think we have the money or flexibility to address that.

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I agree we sign another OFer. Jake could be on the way out if the OFer we sign is decent enough defensively to play more than just LF.

I think its safe that Kessinger will get the spot over Hensley.

There is always the option of Salazar at catcher, but I hope we get a vet to help Diaz along.

If Jake is out, the savings are minor, but every little bit helps. If we can spend 10-15 M to LF and another 3-5 M to C. Then we can put another 10-15 M to RP.

That budget means we spend about 23-35 M this offseason. That will put us near the 2nd tax level.

If we extend Altuve and/or Bregman there is a chance, I believe, to lower their AAV which would make more space for the luxury payroll.

It would be nice if we didn't owe Montero 11.5 M and Abreu 19.5 M. I think that 31 M could be used so much more effectively.

To jump in on the SP talk. I get why we want more arms, but I feel like we have enough to get us thru a season.

Verlander
Valdez
Javier
Brown
France
Urqudiy
--
Blanco
Gordon
Arrighetti
Dubon
Bielak
--
McCullers
Garcia


That is a 6 man rotation, 5 options in AAA, and 2 guys coming back from injuries. I don't think we need to add another body unless it's someone you know will crack the postseason rotation.

We also have a lot of guys due arbitration raises and have a full year of our portion of JV. That said, I've already said I'd sign a SP then trade Framber for a bounty.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Urquidy/France or someone similar moved for a bat

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This makes sense to me and is the only way you can sign a free agent starter. Not sure what OF bat we would target or is obtainable, though.

Someone like a Mike Yastrzemski who hits righties well. Maybe Anthony Santander if Baltimore wants to open the door for some of their prospects and add pitching

Edit to add Verdugo who I blanked on the first time

Buck Compton said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Urquidy/France or someone similar moved for a bat

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This makes sense to me and is the only way you can sign a free agent starter. Not sure what OF bat we would target or is obtainable, though.

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Verdugo
Conforto
Meadows

Those are all good names as well

texasaggie2015 said:

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Those are all good names as well

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I like yours better. I think those 3 are more attainable tho.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Someone like a Mike Yastrzemski who hits righties well. Maybe Anthony Santander if Baltimore wants to open the door for some of their prospects and add pitching

Edit to add Verdugo who I blanked on the first time

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Big fat yes on Santander, but probably a bridge too far.

Farmer1906 said:

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Buck Compton said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Urquidy/France or someone similar moved for a bat

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This makes sense to me and is the only way you can sign a free agent starter. Not sure what OF bat we would target or is obtainable, though.

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Verdugo
Conforto
Meadows

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Verdugo and Meadows are one year plugs but Conforto is likely looking for a multi-year deal. The question with that is a) is Chas your CF and b) is Altuve your 2B after 2024? Altuve is a free agent then but also a terrible 2B, which is only going to get worse. LF would seem like the easiest way to fade his defense unless he's going to be a fixture at DH.

After letting our loss to the Rangers get further away, I think we are definitely setup for major success next year with the right manager.

IF LMC and Louace come back and pitch to how we know they can pitch, we have a solid starting rotation of JV, Javi, Framber, LMC, Garcia. Throw in Urquidy, HB, and JP for long relief our BP only really needs one or two pieces to replace Neris (Hope we keep him), maybe Montero if he regresses.

If Pena can figure out his swing issues, and Yainer keeps doing what he did this year with more plate appearances, our Lineup looks SCARY

Altuve
Bregman
Yordan
Tucker
Abreu
Chas
Yainer
Pena
(Lefty DH /LF)