***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

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gambochaman
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12:12p, 10/26/23
AG
No ausmus
No thank you
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agproducer
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:15p, 10/26/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
I was messing around on Savant this morning with wOBA vs xwOBA and came up with some names that either hit the ball well and didn't get the results expected or the reverse.

Player of Interest
Joc Pederson - He already was someone to consider for his LF platoon abilities, but it could be even better to "buy low". His wOBA was about league average. His xwOBA was 26th in baseball, basically the same of Tatis Jr.

Tommy Pham - It was fishy that he kind of peaked so late, but he's another guy who had "bad luck" so the peak could have been that much better. I know his reputation is as a psycho, but a lot of hhis teammates really seem to enjoy playing with him. At his age, it might be a nice cheap buy in LF. He was 40th in baseball sandwiched between Wander & Jose Ramirez.

David Peralta - He didn't have a large gap like Pederson or Pham, but if he played to his expected #s, he'd go from slightly below average to slightly above. Plus he's another older cheap lefty who can be a nice budget platoon.

Jorge Soler - He had a strong year and it could have been even better. I fully expect him to opt out of his $9 M player option for 2024. He's been in the league for 10 years and only made 68 M. At 30 he was only offered 3/36,(with opt-outs). Will anyone go higher at 32?

Players to Avoid
Adam Duvall - I know he killed Houston, but he also had a below-league average xwOBA. If we sign old guys, we need to make sure it's on the super cheap with some reason to believe they'll succeed in 24.

Cody Bellinger - He went nuts in a contract year. I don't trust it, especially after the down 20-22 seasons.

Brandon Belt - He seems like a good platoon option to help DH and play some 1B, but he was also near the top of "lucky" players in 2023.

Jason Heyward - My pick already is losing some shine. I dug even deeper to look at the RHP-only match-ups and it's actually slightly worse. He was just slightly above league average based on expected wOBA.

Kevin Kiermaier - It looks like "luck" kept him league average. His xwOBA was more in line with Dubon & Pena.
Any analysis on Lourdes? JD Martinez? I hadn't thought about Peralta. Isn't he old?

I wouldn't be surprised if Dana went after Joc.
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texasaggie2015
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12:18p, 10/26/23
AG
This Ausmus thing is bugging me and I'm gonna try to pry every bit of info I can to get to the bottom of it lol
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Mr.Bond
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12:21p, 10/26/23
AG
Ausmus is the Josh mccown of Astros managerial searches
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

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Farmer1906
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In reply to agproducer • 12:24p, 10/26/23
AG
agproducer said:
Farmer1906 said:
I was messing around on Savant this morning with wOBA vs xwOBA and came up with some names that either hit the ball well and didn't get the results expected or the reverse.

Player of Interest
Joc Pederson - He already was someone to consider for his LF platoon abilities, but it could be even better to "buy low". His wOBA was about league average. His xwOBA was 26th in baseball, basically the same of Tatis Jr.

Tommy Pham - It was fishy that he kind of peaked so late, but he's another guy who had "bad luck" so the peak could have been that much better. I know his reputation is as a psycho, but a lot of hhis teammates really seem to enjoy playing with him. At his age, it might be a nice cheap buy in LF. He was 40th in baseball sandwiched between Wander & Jose Ramirez.

David Peralta - He didn't have a large gap like Pederson or Pham, but if he played to his expected #s, he'd go from slightly below average to slightly above. Plus he's another older cheap lefty who can be a nice budget platoon.

Jorge Soler - He had a strong year and it could have been even better. I fully expect him to opt out of his $9 M player option for 2024. He's been in the league for 10 years and only made 68 M. At 30 he was only offered 3/36,(with opt-outs). Will anyone go higher at 32?

Players to Avoid
Adam Duvall - I know he killed Houston, but he also had a below-league average xwOBA. If we sign old guys, we need to make sure it's on the super cheap with some reason to believe they'll succeed in 24.

Cody Bellinger - He went nuts in a contract year. I don't trust it, especially after the down 20-22 seasons.

Brandon Belt - He seems like a good platoon option to help DH and play some 1B, but he was also near the top of "lucky" players in 2023.

Jason Heyward - My pick already is losing some shine. I dug even deeper to look at the RHP-only match-ups and it's actually slightly worse. He was just slightly above league average based on expected wOBA.

Kevin Kiermaier - It looks like "luck" kept him league average. His xwOBA was more in line with Dubon & Pena.
Any analysis on Lourdes? JD Martinez? I hadn't thought about Peralta. Isn't he old?

I wouldn't be surprised if Dana went after Joc.
Gurriel was a little above league avg without falling too much on the lucky or unlucky side. He was a reverse split guy until this year. Lots of contact, not a lot of walks. He seems solid across the board. Not fast, but not slow. Decent hitter, but nothing special. Plus arm. I wouldn't be mad if we signed him, but I think what you see is what you get.

JD had a very strong year. He's a full-time DH and we need Yordan and Diaz there a bunch. While it would be awesome to add him, I think someone who can play the field some would be a better fit.
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to Deluxe • 12:26p, 10/26/23
AG
Deluxe said:
Now that I think about it, Crane does have a weird trend of hiring guys who have beaten him in the past. Click as GM after the Rays beat us in 2020. Dana as GM after the Braves beat us in 2021. Maybe Venable is the guy after the Rangers beat us this year...
2024 manager: Adolis Garcia
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Deluxe
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 12:28p, 10/26/23
AG
The Porkchop Express said:
Deluxe said:
Now that I think about it, Crane does have a weird trend of hiring guys who have beaten him in the past. Click as GM after the Rays beat us in 2020. Dana as GM after the Braves beat us in 2021. Maybe Venable is the guy after the Rangers beat us this year...
2024 manager: Adolis Garcia

Now that the sign-stealing scandal is in the distant past, I don't want to invite a steroid scandal into the locker room.
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dixichkn
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12:30p, 10/26/23
AG
Brad Ausmus = Lovie Smith.

Just no.
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agproducer
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:34p, 10/26/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
agproducer said:
Farmer1906 said:
I was messing around on Savant this morning with wOBA vs xwOBA and came up with some names that either hit the ball well and didn't get the results expected or the reverse.

Player of Interest
Joc Pederson - He already was someone to consider for his LF platoon abilities, but it could be even better to "buy low". His wOBA was about league average. His xwOBA was 26th in baseball, basically the same of Tatis Jr.

Tommy Pham - It was fishy that he kind of peaked so late, but he's another guy who had "bad luck" so the peak could have been that much better. I know his reputation is as a psycho, but a lot of hhis teammates really seem to enjoy playing with him. At his age, it might be a nice cheap buy in LF. He was 40th in baseball sandwiched between Wander & Jose Ramirez.

David Peralta - He didn't have a large gap like Pederson or Pham, but if he played to his expected #s, he'd go from slightly below average to slightly above. Plus he's another older cheap lefty who can be a nice budget platoon.

Jorge Soler - He had a strong year and it could have been even better. I fully expect him to opt out of his $9 M player option for 2024. He's been in the league for 10 years and only made 68 M. At 30 he was only offered 3/36,(with opt-outs). Will anyone go higher at 32?

Players to Avoid
Adam Duvall - I know he killed Houston, but he also had a below-league average xwOBA. If we sign old guys, we need to make sure it's on the super cheap with some reason to believe they'll succeed in 24.

Cody Bellinger - He went nuts in a contract year. I don't trust it, especially after the down 20-22 seasons.

Brandon Belt - He seems like a good platoon option to help DH and play some 1B, but he was also near the top of "lucky" players in 2023.

Jason Heyward - My pick already is losing some shine. I dug even deeper to look at the RHP-only match-ups and it's actually slightly worse. He was just slightly above league average based on expected wOBA.

Kevin Kiermaier - It looks like "luck" kept him league average. His xwOBA was more in line with Dubon & Pena.
Any analysis on Lourdes? JD Martinez? I hadn't thought about Peralta. Isn't he old?

I wouldn't be surprised if Dana went after Joc.
Gurriel was a little above league avg without falling too much on the lucky or unlucky side. He was a reverse split guy until this year. Lots of contact, not a lot of walks. He seems solid across the board. Not fast, but not slow. Decent hitter, but nothing special. Plus arm. I wouldn't be mad if we signed him, but I think what you see is what you get.

JD had a very strong year. He's a full-time DH and we need Yordan and Diaz there a bunch. While it would be awesome to add him, I think someone who can play the field some would be a better fit.
Thanks. Always appreciate your analysis.
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bearkatag15
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12:54p, 10/26/23
AG


This the article Dusty was referring to?
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
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McInnis 03
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 1:00p, 10/26/23
AG
bearkatag15 said:


This the article Dusty was referring to?
And now I want some Banana Pudding. Thanks guys.
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bearkatag15
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1:04p, 10/26/23
AG


I want to see this lineup or one with a productive OF in place of Dubon 100+ times next season
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
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Ragnar Danneskjoldd
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1:10p, 10/26/23
AG
Does anyone else think Pena is a huge problem? Im not saying he's someone we should be upgrading with the other glaring holes we have, but sheesh he's approaching maldanado level of production.
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BadAggie
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In reply to Wabs • 1:10p, 10/26/23
AG
Wabs said:
Ausmus??? Hell to the **** no.
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bearkatag15
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In reply to Ragnar Danneskjoldd • 1:13p, 10/26/23
AG
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
Does anyone else think Pena is a huge problem? Im not saying he's someone we should be upgrading with the other glaring holes we have, but sheesh he's approaching maldanado level of production.


That's a bit ignorant. In the tweet I posted above, he hit .281 with a .709 OPS from July 1st this year. I'll take that all day from a bottom 3rd of the order type. I really like him in the 9 hole next year
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
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BadAggie
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1:13p, 10/26/23
AG
Lol Dusty

Mad people knew he thought Chas was chonky

Couldn't quit Corey Julks

Still mad Click traded his sweetheart Myles
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EastCoastAgNc
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1:17p, 10/26/23
AG
If they hire Brad Ausmis, Dana Brown should resign in protest.
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Ragnar Danneskjoldd
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 1:23p, 10/26/23
AG
bearkatag15 said:
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
Does anyone else think Pena is a huge problem? Im not saying he's someone we should be upgrading with the other glaring holes we have, but sheesh he's approaching maldanado level of production.


That's a bit ignorant. In the tweet I posted above, he hit .281 with a .709 OPS from July 1st this year. I'll take that all day from a bottom 3rd of the order type. I really like him in the 9 hole next year
Youre probably right, but does that include the playoffs?
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bearkatag15
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In reply to Ragnar Danneskjoldd • 1:25p, 10/26/23
AG
No just regular season
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
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wangus12
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 1:26p, 10/26/23
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
This Ausmus thing is bugging me and I'm gonna try to pry every bit of info I can to get to the bottom of it lol
Suck some D if you have to
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jr15aggie
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In reply to Ragnar Danneskjoldd • 1:30p, 10/26/23
AG
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
Does anyone else think Pena is a huge problem? Im not saying he's someone we should be upgrading with the other glaring holes we have, but sheesh he's approaching maldanado level of production.

Admittedly, my days of watching most regular season games stopped after my college years (Bagwell/Biggio era). So my day-to-day team knowledge might be lacking, but almost every time I watch a game that guy is making a splash play on defense. He shows up every damn game.

He's still the SS of the present/future in my book.
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TarponChaser
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In reply to concac • 1:31p, 10/26/23
RealTalk said:
What's Bo Porter doing these days? Let's bring him back.

I realize this is tongue-in-cheek but Bo Porter is running a youth baseball academy disguised as a charter school down off 288 near Rosharon.

https://boporteracademy.com/

https://boporterfutureallstarsbaseball.com/

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BadAggie
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1:34p, 10/26/23
AG
Ausmus? Ausmus?

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Farmer1906
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In reply to Ragnar Danneskjoldd • 1:34p, 10/26/23
AG
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
bearkatag15 said:
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
Does anyone else think Pena is a huge problem? Im not saying he's someone we should be upgrading with the other glaring holes we have, but sheesh he's approaching maldanado level of production.


That's a bit ignorant. In the tweet I posted above, he hit .281 with a .709 OPS from July 1st this year. I'll take that all day from a bottom 3rd of the order type. I really like him in the 9 hole next year
Youre probably right, but does that include the playoffs?


Look at his peers. He wasn't as good as Turner or Dansby but he wasn't light years away. Very similar to Correa & Adames. We'll ahead of De La Cruz & Volpe.

Who would you replace him with? It's not like there are great options in free agency. Would anyone trade away the top guys? How much would it cost?

It just seems like you're trying to fix a problem that isn't near the top of the list and seems extremely expensive to fix with resources we with don't have or that should go elsewhere.

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W
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1:35p, 10/26/23
AG
wasn't someone saying yesterday that Bagwell doesn't have all the front office power we attribute to him?

if Ausmus' name is coming up again...yet again...apparently, Bagwell does
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Farmer1906
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In reply to TarponChaser • 1:36p, 10/26/23
AG
TarponChaser said:
RealTalk said:
What's Bo Porter doing these days? Let's bring him back.

I realize this is tongue-in-cheek but Bo Porter is running a youth baseball academy disguised as a charter school down off 288 near Rosharon.

https://boporteracademy.com/

https://boporterfutureallstarsbaseball.com/



That looks awesome.
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Beau Holder
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In reply to W • 1:38p, 10/26/23
AG
W said:
wasn't someone saying yesterday that Bagwell doesn't have all the front office power we attribute to him?

if Ausmus' name is coming up again...yet again...apparently, Bagwell does

It could be entirely possible that the weight Bagwell carries is not in the front office but rather with the media who seek out sources to compile these lists…
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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 1:38p, 10/26/23
AG
I know Dusty speaks some Spanish. Doesn't Jose Miller as well? I thought our pitching guys could talk to pitchers without translators.

Beyond imparting info, I have other thought that our dugout chemistry has been helped with fewer language/culture barriers than most.
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fullback44
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1:39p, 10/26/23
AG
Bring AJ back… forget the rest of these guys
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W
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In reply to tjack16 • 1:40p, 10/26/23
AG
tjack16 said:
Why do we hate Ausmus as manager so much? I remember him not being a popular name back in 2020 but not sure why that was
the Jake Marisnick sliding-into-home-plate incident

and the subsequent retaliation

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Boiling Denim
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In reply to Ragnar Danneskjoldd • 1:41p, 10/26/23
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
Does anyone else think Pena is a huge problem? Im not saying he's someone we should be upgrading with the other glaring holes we have, but sheesh he's approaching maldanado level of production.
Almost every SS out-producing him is on a long-term big deal or will be FAs in a couple years and will be getting $300MM+ so unless SS grow on trees in the minors he's gonna be our best bet for a while
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n_touch
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In reply to wangus12 • 1:42p, 10/26/23
wangus12 said:
texasaggie2015 said:
This Ausmus thing is bugging me and I'm gonna try to pry every bit of info I can to get to the bottom of it lol
Suck some D if you have to


Better hope he doesn't throw that offer out there and send them your way
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texasaggie2015
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1:42p, 10/26/23
AG
Source says there's smoke around Ausmus but he still believes Espada will be the guy. He doesn't have direct knowledge of the hire (it's being kept close to the vest) but he's connected enough to where I trust he has a good idea.
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WES2006AG
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In reply to TarponChaser • 1:43p, 10/26/23
AG
TarponChaser said:
RealTalk said:
What's Bo Porter doing these days? Let's bring him back.

I realize this is tongue-in-cheek but Bo Porter is running a youth baseball academy disguised as a charter school down off 288 near Rosharon.

https://boporteracademy.com/

https://boporterfutureallstarsbaseball.com/

I've umpired some of their games and I asked a few kids what kind of schooling was going on at the academy. The answer was...not much.
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Farmer1906
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1:43p, 10/26/23
AG
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