I was messing around on Savant this morning with wOBA vs xwOBA and came up with some names that either hit the ball well and didn't get the results expected or the reverse.
Player of Interest
Joc Pederson - He already was someone to consider for his LF platoon abilities, but it could be even better to "buy low". His wOBA was about league average. His xwOBA was 26th in baseball, basically the same of Tatis Jr.
Tommy Pham - It was fishy that he kind of peaked so late, but he's another guy who had "bad luck" so the peak could have been that much better. I know his reputation is as a psycho, but a lot of hhis teammates really seem to enjoy playing with him. At his age, it might be a nice cheap buy in LF. He was 40th in baseball sandwiched between Wander & Jose Ramirez.
David Peralta - He didn't have a large gap like Pederson or Pham, but if he played to his expected #s, he'd go from slightly below average to slightly above. Plus he's another older cheap lefty who can be a nice budget platoon.
Jorge Soler - He had a strong year and it could have been even better. I fully expect him to opt out of his $9 M player option for 2024. He's been in the league for 10 years and only made 68 M. At 30 he was only offered 3/36,(with opt-outs). Will anyone go higher at 32?
Players to Avoid
Adam Duvall - I know he killed Houston, but he also had a below-league average xwOBA. If we sign old guys, we need to make sure it's on the super cheap with some reason to believe they'll succeed in 24.
Cody Bellinger - He went nuts in a contract year. I don't trust it, especially after the down 20-22 seasons.
Brandon Belt - He seems like a good platoon option to help DH and play some 1B, but he was also near the top of "lucky" players in 2023.
Jason Heyward - My pick already is losing some shine. I dug even deeper to look at the RHP-only match-ups and it's actually slightly worse. He was just slightly above league average based on expected wOBA.
Kevin Kiermaier - It looks like "luck" kept him league average. His xwOBA was more in line with Dubon & Pena.