Tksymm7 said:

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Similar to what everyone else has said, although I think the Rangers need a true top end of the rotation/high end caliber starter, while Houston could probably get away with a solid veteran/middle rotation piece to eat innings and be a #3'ish type of guy in the playoffs. I also don't know how Houston would get a TORP without giving up guys currently on the roster.

They both need bullpen help too, but again, the Rangers could really use a true closer, and the Astros could use more long relief help, as they have the backend somewhat solidified.

I truly think the Rangers lineup is fine, they just need to now maximize it by finding the ideal lineup.

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Thanks for the input!

I really don't think Ohtani is getting traded either. I don't think, as an organization, you can trade a player of his caliber and cache. That's sending a horrible message to organization, players, fans etc. Trading Ohtani feels like it could ruin a franchise's goodwill with just about everyone.

The Angels SHOULD be looking at trading Trout, imo. It would suck, but I think it's pretty justifiable given that he's 32, injury prone, with a massive contract and the best of his career over. That one I think could be explained and really benefit your team in a few years.

I just don't know how it could if you're out of it. I don't see him resigning with them at this point. I'm sure they could pony up the money, but they've had the two best players in the league for the last several years and haven't done anything. Not trading him would be insane.

The Angels would have to trade Trout for another bad contract (and worse player). Given the injury history of Trout, he isn't going anywhere.

The Angels should trade Ohtani for major league ready arms/bats and be ready to compete in 2024...but they won't do that. As a Rangers fan, I'm more than happy with them holding onto Ohtani.

Yup. Feels like it happens to us far too often. Would love to watch a divisional opponent lose a generational player with no return.

Here's to short term memory for the Rangers and them opening up on their opponents the second half of this season! Time to hammer down!

texasaggie2015 said:

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Mr Gigem said:

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SP
RPx2
Bat

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Not dissimilar to Houston. This is going to be a fun next couple weeks

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I think it is a bit dissimilar in terms of need.

For the Rangers, a SP means someone better than Heaney or Perez. Ideally, we probably don't want anything below a #2.

For the Astros, I think they need at least one body. Below are the 3 guys listed to start the rotation in the 2nd half. Neither team has give 4th and 5th SP, so I'll list what is left after the 1st 3 listed as "Options"

Rangers:
Gray: 16 GS, 3.29
Heaney, 17 GS, 4.71
Perez: 17 GS, 4.81
Options:
Eovaldi: 18 GS, 2.83
Dunning: 12GS (20G), 2.84

Astros:
France: 11 GS, 3.26
Valdez: 17 GS, 2.51
Javier: 17 GS, 4.34
Options:
Framber (17GS, 2.51) - Is he healthy?
Bielak: 10GS, 3.79
Brown (24): 17GS, 4.12

If I'm a Rangers fan, my questions are... can Heaney and/or Perez return to early season performance. Are either of them injured. I like the Rangers coming out with them 1st, so the Rangers can get a feel for how they stand. If we make a trade, one of them presumably gets bumped, but for all intents, they can eat innings and keep us in most games. Both had a blowout game near the end of the 1st H.

Rangers have used 7 SP, lost deGrom and Bradford has shown to at least be serviceable.

If I'm an Astros fan, my questions are... is Frambler healthy and can he be relied on the next couple weeks. Outside of that

Astros have used 9 SP, lost Luis Garcia. Urquidy (6GS, 5.20) is rehabbing. Is he an option? Is there anything with the minor leaguers (Blanco, Dubin) that comforts you as fill-ins?! None of Brown, Javier, nor France pitched over 150 IP in a single MLB season. Will they fade under the current load.

Astros, IMO, need 1 arm minimum. Even if an innings guy they can count on down the stretch.

Regarding bat...
Rangers want a bat. If we get one, we are not just looking for a JAG to play LF or DH. It really would be to replace Grossman/Jankowski platoon. Duran is also in the mix in the lineup.

I think the Astros were likely looking at a bat before Alvarez went down. Alvarez is rehabbing... Getting him back will be a huge boost if his performance returns. If his injury nags, Astros could need 2 bats. Would you say Astros need a bat... or want a bat?

RP
Rangers NEED 2 RP
Astros probably WANT RP

I think the Astros BP is pretty good.

KT 90 said:

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_lefraud_ said:

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Scherzer is my want. Sure he hasn't been good so far this year, but the Mets have been awful offensively. I'd feel much better about October with Eovaldi, Scherzer & Dunning/Gray.

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problem with Scherzer is that (I believe) he has a player option for 2024 that he is likely to exercise and it is for $43M or so. So you are making a two year commitment most likely for quite a bit of coin on an aging pitcher.

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A 38 yo with a 4.31 ERA. You are hoping for a change-of-scenery situation, but with splits of 3.72 (Apr), 3.38 (May), 4.25 (June), and 7.36 (July), that might be wishful hoping.

For someone like the Dodgers, if the NYM pick up money, he'd be an option to stabilize a very suspect rotation. Next year, the Dodgers have lots of questions. Kershaw and Urias are both FAs. Syndergaard, as well, but he is a non-factor, at this point.

Urias is the only SP listed to start the 2H and he is coming off the IL. I suspect they are trying to find out Kershaw's situation.

Here are their next 3:
Miller (24): 8GS, 4.50
Sheehan (23): 4GS, 4.35
Grove (26): 8GS, 6.89

For Miller and Sheehan, that is also their career in MLB. For Grove, he threw 29.1 IP, last year in 6 GS, 4.60 ERA.

It is one of the reasons I've suggested if the Rangers get a SP, they could flip Perez/Heaney to the LAD.

Tksymm7 said:

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I really don't think Ohtani is getting traded either. I don't think, as an organization, you can trade a player of his caliber and cache. That's sending a horrible message to organization, players, fans etc. Trading Ohtani feels like it could ruin a franchise's goodwill with just about everyone.

The Angels SHOULD be looking at trading Trout, imo. It would suck, but I think it's pretty justifiable given that he's 32, injury prone, with a massive contract and the best of his career over. That one I think could be explained and really benefit your team in a few years.

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I've said that about Ohtani... he is the kinda player the team makes walk... You can't trade him. Make Ohtani to be the bad guy that left.

With Trout... the Halos are stuck with him. He is 31, and signed for $37M for 7 more years.

Would anyone sign Trout for 7yrs/$37M per? He has shown to be content playing for a mediocre team. At least Ohtani wants to win.

Believing the Rangers rotation isn't suspect (especially for October) is wishful thinking.

If I'm Mr. Davis, I'm thinking "hell I'm paying a TOTR player right now. His name is deGrom."

Indeed. Any TOTR guy now has to be a pure rental, if simply for cash flow issues for the Rangers.

As DallasAg so well laid out, we are in much better shape than the Astros with SP. If we pick up someone, they need to be better than Perez. So let's see what we got starting tonight.

Mr Gigem said:

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Let me know if you get extras to pass around. I live out of state, but would be interested in purchasing if available

Ohtani has made it clear he is going to test free agency and "wants to play for a winner".

So if you are LAA you have two options - absolutely break the bank in the offseason to build a team around him and likely still lose out on him in free agency.

Or get what you can for him.

Normally I'd agree it will really piss off a fanbase if you trade a generational guy, but this isn't a situation where the Ohtani agent is throwing out the same tripe that many fans fall for of "I want to be in Anaheim" or "I want to retire an Angel"...

At this point a trade might actually make the fanbase feel better as at least there will be a new "plan" cause the current one ain't working. Not sure holding onto a guy for 3 more months in a losing season is really going to buy much credibility with the fans for next year when he inevitably walks.

It's wishful thinking, but what would be really sweet is if the Angels came out of the gate and swept the Astros. That would put LAA likely 3 games back in the wildcard hunt. If LAAA is within striking distance of the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, then that makes it realllllllllly hard to even shop Ohtani.

I guess we view the term "suspect" differently.

Consider 2021-2022, since those are the last 2 full seasons.
Avg number of IP per season and the ERA.
Eovaldi: 145.5 IP with a 3.80 ERA the past 3 seasons. 12 yr career
Gray: 138 IP, 4.30 ERA. 9 yr career
Perez: 155 IP, 3.57 ERA. 12 yr career
Dunning: 135 IP, 4.48 ERA. 4 yr career
Heaney: 101 IP, 4.85 ERA. 10 yr career

This season, Gray has missed 1 GS. Dunning replaced deGrom.

The only other SP this season has been Bradford who has 5G

The Rangers may not have a Cy Young, MVP pitcher at the end of the season, but they've shown to be durable over the past couple years and capable. This season, they have remained relatively healthy and while occasionally terrible, seem to be better than average and on the way to finishing a season with almost a decade of experience each pitching a full season.

Rangers need 3 of the 5 SPs to stay healthy and finish the season performing as they have been.

Compared to the Dodgers I mentioned:
Kershaw: Performance. Let's just say he is the best of all SPs. He is on the 15IL. Shoulder injury to his throwing shoulder.
Urias: Just returned from 15IL with Hammy issue. Went 2GS, 9IP, 7 ER.

Those are the anchors to the rotation.

Here are the other 3 SPs that make up their rotation. I can't really compare their 2021-2022 stats because combined they have 29.1 IP in MLB coming into the season and that is oldest guy with the worst 2023 numbers (Grove).
Miller (24): 8GS, 4.50 <- That is his MLB career.
Sheehan (23): 4GS, 4.35 <- That is his MLB career.
Grove (26): 8GS, 6.89

Dodgers need a good report on Kershaw's throwing shoulder and for Urias to trust his hammy... they also need 3 rookie SPs to come together.

But, of course, they are equally suspect, I suppose.

15 Games until the trade deadline.

That's roughly 3 times through the rotation to figure out what you have. There are some days off, so some clubs can probably skip days...

Also, with the way the Rangers have set their rotation, it is likely Eovaldi, Dunning, Gray against Houston.

The 3 with Cle this weekend are Gray, Heaney, and Perez. Neither the Astros nor Rangers have set their rotations publicly. Gamesmanship? Likely.

I think we'll have to see if Framber is a go. If so, which game does he get 1st or 2nd, and then France in the final game. 3rd SP is TBD, I suppose.

<I struck out the comments. I thought the Rangers/Astros series followed the Guardians.>

Mr Gigem said:

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So if I have a ST voucher, do I have to be there this night to get this hat with the coucher? Sure would be nice if there were a ST area where we could cash in vouchers on previous events.

If you purchased the theme night voucher, yes you can redeem that for the hat

If you want to go ahead and buy, you can send me the ticket and I can get the hat for you. Then I can mail it to you.

fc2112 said:

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If I'm Mr. Davis, I'm thinking "hell I'm paying a TOTR player right now. His name is deGrom."

Indeed. Any TOTR guy now has to be a pure rental, if simply for cash flow issues for the Rangers.

As DallasAg so well laid out, we are in much better shape than the Astros with SP. If we pick up someone, they need to be better than Perez. So let's see what we got starting tonight.

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Agree to an extent, but we really don't have astronomical money locked into pitchers long-term. Perez and Odorizzi are off the books this offseason, at least at the 19.650 and 7.833 million they are being paid now, but I would guess they aren't coming back as of today. Heaney probably would be coming off the books but he's got a player option for next season at 13.000 million that he's 100% going to exercise, but after next season he's out. Eovaldi is guaranteed 17.000 million next season, with a vested option for 2025 at 20.000 million if he pitches 300 innings across 2023-2024, which feels likely as of today, so he's here through 2025 along with Jon Gray at 13.000 million at that time.

So, yes, we'll have roughly 73 million locked up in deGrom, Eovaldi and Gray in 2025 when the latter two are done, but we are also going to come into some solid cap space over the next few years as well, as some of the others fall off, starting with 27.483 million coming off this offseason alone in Perez and Odorizzi. Then another 13.000 next year when Heaney is gone. That's over 40 million dollars freed up to commit to a TORP pitcher if you need to just in the rotation alone.

Can someone explain the money issue for me? I thought that the MLB did not have a cap other than the extra tax fee for going over a certain amount. Is there a rule in place that will limit how much we can spend or can we just not afford certain players?

And Dunning is Arb through 2026.

Kennedy's $2M +/- is off, and I didn't realize KC pays $1.8M on Chapman.

Water Boy said:

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Can someone explain the money issue for me? I thought that the MLB did not have a cap other than the extra tax fee for going over a certain amount. Is there a rule in place that will limit how much we can spend or can we just not afford certain players?

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There is the Luxury Tax and it grows based on multiple offenses.

We had about $9M to still reach the Tax.

Here is the actual link for Texas A&M Night tickets if anyone wants to buy

Texas A&M Night

Is that an actual problem? Can we not afford the luxury tax?

I'm not advocating we got out and spend in free agency again. I don't think we afford that. I was just trying to point out that we have some pretty short contracts in regards to pitching and will free up cap space in the rotation faster than people think, which shouldn't be a factor in deciding to trade for a guy at the top of the rotation.

It's even easier when we pay money for tickets and spend crazy amounts of money for food and drinks! Im sure ownership is making a lot more money since a lot more fans are getting to the ballpark to watch a competitive team!

I believe someone upstream mentioned trading Trout instead of Ohtani… Trouts contract is almost untradeable
but if Angels do find a taker….. no way is Ohtani coming back

I personally think Trout has some good years left, but the Angels would have to trade him right now, tomorrow. They can't keep letting him get hurt and show the decline he's on, because injuries are starting to dominate his career like deGrom. I think the Yankees would do backflips to get Trout, even the Phillies, Orioles or Reds if they can make the numbers work. He'd be a huge addition for teams like that, but the longer it goes the worse and worse it's going to get for them. You think they'd learn after Pujols, Hamilton, Rendon…etc.

Water Boy said:

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It's even easier when we pay money for tickets and spend crazy amounts of money for food and drinks! Im sure ownership is making a lot more money since a lot more fans are getting to the ballpark to watch a competitive team!

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Here's the thing about going over the luxury tax line.

You aren't getting a bunch of players on one year contracts. The money you spend today is the money you'll probably be spending for the next 3-5 years or more. There's a finite amount of money this organization is going to spend (or any organization not named the Yankees for that matter), and you can belly ache about ticket and concession prices all you like, but it doesn't change that fact.

The reason they don't want to go over that line is because they don't want to lose any financial flexibility they might otherwise have. What if, for instance, deGrom can't come back from his injury, or if someone like Seager or Semien has a career altering injury or setback of some kind. There's lots of reasons to not go over that limit if you're the Rangers.

I just think it's funny how casually some will throw out the "well just go spend, spend, spend!" idea without considering the ramifications of it.

And Tskymm7, none of this was directed at you, your points as always are valid.

Guardian's Bieber:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/shane-bieber-headed-for-mri-due-to-forearm-irritation.html

Yeah I understand that. Not sure you read my previous posts asking if this was just a case of not having enough money. My point is if we have the money then spend it. But if going over will be too much of a financial burden and we simply don't have the funds to do so then of course I understand. That's the whole reason I brought up the topic to begin with. Now I know that we just don't have the cash so obviously I'm not advocating for us to spend money we don't have.