Proposition Joe said:

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A prospect or two in the 200ish range of all of MLB can fetch you a big leaguer, but it's not going to be an impact big leaguer.

That being said, it could absolutely be an upgrade... but it could not be.

A true difference maker in the bullpen is going to cost you a guy off that list.

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Seem to recall several deadlines in the recent past where either no or minimal top 100 prospects were moved.

Good news is, we don't have to decide in the next couple weeks. We have some time.

I think it still stand:
Need: RP (Possibly Closer),
Want: RP, LF, SP

We didn't win the NYY series, but I think the team proved we match up well against the NYY.

Personally, all 5 of the Top prospects are untouchables, IMO.

Owen White did well in his AAA debut: 5.0 IP, 1 H, 3BB, 2SO, 1ER
That's how you want a kid to respond.

Our Needs don't exceed our Wants and until it does, Foscue... Harris... some lower level prospects.

We need to keep putting Ws up and distance ourselves. Allowing the Yanks to linger was disappointing, but we are still ahead of the pack.

LAAA is picking up spare parts to replace injured players, Tampa is having issues, and the Astros can't seem to get out of their own way.

gigem1223 said:

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Don't care to spend prospects on a LFer. Duran/ Jankowski is just fine. We need at least 2 RP arms and a TORP if we want to contend this year.

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I'll ask you what I've asked on here... whose rotation do you put ahead of ours?

AL?

NL?

And look at the IP the previous year. Any SP that is already approaching their career high in MLB IP... is likely headed for rocky waters. 150 IP has always seemed to be a tipping point.

Currently TB, Houston, Minnesota and potentially Seattle.


Our problem is Gray and Eovaldi have been pitching well above their career averages and are starting to come back down to earth in their last several starts. Gray also hasn't been reliable when it comes to health, nor has Heaney. We need a TORP.

I just watched Saggesse commit 3 errors on Saturday. He looked good at the plate but was rough to watch in the field.

Idk how many of y'all saw this, but Frisco has begun working Acuña in CF. Not day-to-day because that's clearly Carter's gig, but I would assume every few games to give Carter a break and to possibly increase his value as well.

Boch mentioned on the radio Friday that Bradford will be getting a start during the Detroit series. Can't remember which game

gigem1223 said:

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Currently TB, Houston, Minnesota and potentially Seattle.


Our problem is Gray and Eovaldi have been pitching well above their career averages and are starting to come back down to earth in their last several starts. Gray also hasn't been reliable when it comes to health, nor has Heaney. We need a TORP.

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AL Team ERA for SP:
TB: 3.35
Texas: 3.44
Houston: 3.49
Minn: 3.68
Seattle: 4.00

You forgot the Yankees - 4.28.

I'm guessing you didn't look at the rotation as much as you did the statistics. Your concerns about possible Rangers issues is absent concerns about real issues other rotations actually are having.

I'll provide you the info separately so everyone can comment specifically about each rotations.

The Rangers are one team to watch with McCutchen.

They are legitimate World Series contenders who have below-average DH production this year.

In 2018, McCutchen played for current Texas manager Bruce Bochy in San Francisco. @MLBNetwork @MLBNetworkRadio https://t.co/vgfNEtQrCB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) June 26, 2023

Saw this from Morosi this morning

Tampa (ERA numbers are as SP):
McClanahan (26): 16GS, 2.23 <- Pulled from last GS with back strain.
Probably the best SP for Tampa. I'm watching to see how his back plays out. This is their rotation, IMO.

Eflin (29): 14GS, 3.35, 83.1 IP. 1st year in Tampa. Career 4.36 with Philly. If you have concerns about players falling back to their norm... here is your guy. He pitched 163.1 IP in 2019. Then 59 ('20), 105.2 ('21), 75.2 ('22). He is 22 IP away from eclipsing the most IP he has had in the last 3 seasons.

Bradley (22): 10GS, 3.86, 49.0 IP. He threw 133.0 IP last year in the minors, but at 22, we'll see how his 1st year in MLB goes. Started the season with 6GS and a 3.60 ERA. His June ERA is 4.26

Beeks (29): 7GS, 25G, 5.82 <- Demoted

Glasnow (29): 6GS, 4.45 <- Had TJ in 2021. had 2GS in 2022. Oblique issue to start season. Tradition limits SPs coming back from TJ to less than 150 IP. We'll see if his ERA recovers... then if his workload gets limited.

Chirinos (29): 4GS, 11G, 3.91 <- Had TJ in Aug 2020. Mostly a mix of SP and RP. Career 60 G, 33 GS, 289.2 IP in 5 MLB seasons.

Rasmussen (27): 8GS, 2.62 <- 60IL
Springs (30): 3GS, 0.56 <- TJ
Baz (24): Has not pitched TJ in offseason

Tampa has used the "Opener" ... a RP who goes out to get the GS and then the actual SP comes in after a bit. So, just going on GS isn't always telling. Using IP can be just as important.

Will Tampa have good pitching? Probably, but they are a mix-mash and I'm not sure they are going to pull it through this year. McCalanahan goes down and they are in real trouble, IMO.

Tksymm7 said:

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Idk how many of y'all saw this, but Frisco has begun working Acuña in CF. Not day-to-day because that's clearly Carter's gig, but I would assume every few games to give Carter a break and to possibly increase his value as well.

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He played 1 game in CF... is he getting side work there, as well, or was that just a 1 time deal based on players available? Sometimes in the minors as they are moving players around... a player may get a role to fill because nobody else can do it... say, CF.

Curious if they are working him out in CF, or if that was a 1 time deal.

I suspect its more experimental than anything, but the gentlemen on the DiamondPod (Sean Bass, Michael Tepid, and Scott Lucas) have brought it up before, implying that they were looking at his future and what is best for him in order to be a big leaguer. I don't think it's a big deal, just note worthy when one of your top prospects is trying a new position and it happens to be CF.

Houston has used 8 SPs this season.

Valdez (29): 15GS, 2.27, 99.0 IP.
I'll give this one as a workhorse. His career 3.20 ERA may suggest drifting to his norm, which is a concern made about Rangers SP, but I'll give this one.

Brown (24): 15GS, 3.62, 87.0 IP
20.1 IP in MLB coming into this season. His IP will likely be an issue. 108 IP in college and A-, in 2019. Didn't pitch in 2020. Combined 100.1 IP in 2021. Combined 126.1 IP in 2022. Mid-July, look for rumblings of a dead arm... or him needing a break.

Javier (26): 15GS, 3.25, 83.0 IP
Break out season for him in 2022. We'll see how he continues. He started 2023 with a 2.97 ERA, but his June ERA of 4.19 should be sounding alarms to Astros fans.

France (28): 9GS, 3.54, 53.1 IP <- 1st MLB season at 28. A career with a mix of RP and SP. Never more than 114.0 IP ('21)

Bielak (27): 8GS, 4.36, 43.1 IP <- Demoted to minors. Mostly a RP
Garcia (26): 6GS, 4.00, 27.0 IP <- 60IL TJ

Urquidy (28): 6GS, 5.20, 27.2 IP <- 60IL. Shoulder issue
Blanco: 4GS, 4.70, 23.0 IP

McCullers (29): 60IL

Astros need SP to get through the season. When you consider the loss of Alvarez, et al... the Astros need lots of help and they'll have to decide what holes to fill.

Confirming: The Rangers have broached the possibility of acquiring Andrew McCutchen, but the Pirates are not prepared to move yet.

The deal would have particular interest to Texas if at least one pitcher is part of the deal, as well.@MLBNetwork @MLBNetworkRadio

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) June 26, 2023

I think Cutch would be a really solid addition as a veteran DH and outfielder who could spell the starters in a pinch. Really interesting note here about a pitcher also being included.

Was just coming to say that at least Bednar has to be included.

I would be very surprised if Bednar wasn't included in a deal. Keller would be an awesome get as well, but I think he's in their future plans to compete. The Pirates also need to eventually keep their starting pitching, because they have been snake bitten by trading away guys time and time again, and then going on to be absolute studs.

I agree with your post, and I don't feel confident with the rotation thru Sept, much less the playoffs.

But I'll add that these guys are getting more run support than they ever have in their career, and that has to help your confidence when taking the mound every five days.

_lefraud_ said:

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I agree with your post, and I don't feel confident with the rotation thru Sept, much less the playoffs.

But I'll add that these guys are getting more run support than they ever have in their career, and that has to help your confidence when taking the mound every five days.

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Yeah I mean don't get me wrong I am thrilled where we are at and guys having career years all at the same time certainly isn't some anomaly that has never happened -- it does quite often for teams that make the WS (which is a big reason why they make it).

But at the same time we're not rolling into the home stretch with a bunch of proven horses.

Vote early and vote often for the 5 Rangers in Phase 2 of ASG voting!

Pack the starting lineup with Rangers!

🗳 https://t.co/TYWJhYvzwu pic.twitter.com/fe9zDyzm7O

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) June 26, 2023

Proposition Joe said:

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Now do Texas.

You have a tendency to look at every other team's stats under a harsh light but then label a guy like Martin Perez as a legitimate #2/3 despite his career #'s all showing otherwise.

Other teams definitely have questions about their August/September rotation pieces, but Texas has 3 starters all putting up career years (Eovaldi, Gray and Dunning) and another starter that is pitching a half-run better than his career #'s (Heaney).

We have a lot of questions about how our rotation will look in August/September as well.

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Ditto, I was about to put in the same "now do Texas" request. Almost afraid to look, but it's reality, so lets see it. We will have guys with some potential red flag issues as well.

Tksymm7 said:

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That felt like a spot where Bochy was just trying to figure out if literally anyone other than Smith, Sborz and Burke could help this team in a tight game further down the road (or if they've improved). Clearly King and Yerry still not the answer.

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I didn't get to watch yesterday, was watching my kid play. But I did pull up the Ranger game live stat updates every so often. Was also wondering wth on the bullpen usage, but you may be right here. Put these guys in a few pressure situations and see what happens. May help CY decide whether to pull the trigger on certain deals involving bullpen help.

Looking like the answer is YES, make the deal(s)

My thoughts behind this were that Bochy isn't stupid. He knows that Sborz, Burke and Smith are his three best guys late in games, but, we need more than just those three guys stepping up on occasion, and he wanted to see if they could get it done in a tight spot. I know losing games like that blows, but you can't find out about guys unless you put them in positions to find out about them; and before someone says they already knew King and Yerry weren't the answer, okay, but they still have barely pitched for us this year. King has pitched 14 innings, and Yerry has pitched a whopping 6 innings, both almost exclusively garbage time. Now Bochy knows that they for sure aren't the answer.

I've said all along the Rangers need to remain healthy. For sure.

I've looked at the Rangers. Texas has used 7 SP. 7. And that includes deGrom.

My point is not to say this is a World Series rotation... it is to say that our Rotation is better and more stable than any other in the AL. Any question you have about Injuries or "returning to career norms" with the Rangers... applies to everyone else.

Some of the differences are that other teams have lost far more of their 2023 rotation, so far.
We have lost deGrom. Best AL pitcher. We replaced him with Dunning who likely was in the 2023 rotation if we didn't acquire deGrom or Heaney.
Gray has had a Blister.
We lost Odorizzi, but he was always a question mark.
Many teams are relying on players that have not gone deep into the season.


Eovaldi (33): 16GS, 2.82 ERA, 105.1 IP
Career 4.05 ERA, 182.1 IP (3.75) in '21, 109.1 (3.87) in '22. His IP in 2023 are about what he did last year.
4.08 ERA over last 5 yrs with 103 IP/Yr. If you take out 2020 shortened season, he avg 117 IP each yr. He has pitched over 150 IP 3 times. He is probably a 3.80 SP. Pitching well above his career.
He went 94GS with a 4.05 ERA over the past 5 seasons in Boston.

Gray (31): 14GS, 2.89 ERA, 81.0 IP
Career 4.38 ERA over 9 yrs and 189 GS. Take out his 1st yr and incomplete 2023, he avg 23.7 GS/Yr. He has 172.1, 168.0, 150.0, and 140 IP in his 4 heaviest seasons. His splits are 4.37 (H) and 4.39 (A). So, pitching in Colorado hasn't shown to hurt his numbers statiscally.
Why has his number been better pitching for Texas. If you look at his pitch selection (per Gray's comments)... he quit throwing his Sinker in Colorado... and last year he abandoned his Slider in Texas. Per Gray, his pitch selection while in Colorado was influenced by the altitude. As a result, he threw what was effective in Colorado the same on the road. Moving to Texas, he has changed up his pitch selection and been more effective, as a result. Is it true? Will it continue? Don't know, but it might explain his increased success last year (3.96) and this year (2.89)
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jon-gray-592351?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

His June ERA is 3.09. A bump up from his 2.81 ERA. Was that in part the blister? Have teams figured him out? Which way will he go? His line for June: 7.0, 0ER; 9.0 1ER, 2.1 IP 6 ER; 5.0 1ER.

Heaney (32): 15GS, 3.98 ERA, 72.1 IP
Heaney is a concern. He has 72.1 IP about what he pitched in 2022 (72.2). Career 4.50 ERA... a bit higher. While he has pitched 180.0 (2018) and in 2021 went 129.2. Heaney is an injury risk, but so far has been relatively consistent. His June numbers are 4.67, above his career numbers. Will that be him the rest of the season? We'll see.

Perez (32): 15GS, 4.38 ERA, 84.1 IP
Perez had a phenom season in 2022 with 196.1 IP and a 2.89 ERA. If he has been anything... he has been durable. In the past 7seasons, he has avg 143.7 IP with a 4.50 ERA. About what he has done this season. June has him at 4.24 ERA. The bulk of those at TB (3.1 IP, 7 ER). The other 3GS (20IP, 4 ER). A Jekyll and Hyde pitcher with a 1.71 ERA @Home... and a 5.98 ERA on the Road. 3.34 ERA on Turf and a 5.11 ERA on Grass. Are those anomalies or opportunities?

Dunning (28): 9GS, 3.16 ERA, 51.1 IP
His overall ERA for 2023 is 2.76 showing when he comes out of the BP, he seems to benefit. He has a career 4.11 ERA, so pitching better than he has shown. He threw 153.1 IP in 2022 and 117.2 in 2021. His numbers have trended to the positive.

Bradford (25): 3GS, 5.65 ERA, 14.1 IP
Mainly a filler that could get spot-starts to rest the rotation. After getting blown up in his debut, he has gone 9.1 IP, 3 ER for a 2.89 ERA in his last 2 GS. What does he offer? Right now, just a foot note.

deGrom (35): 6GS, 2.67 ERA, <- 60IL TJ
Odorizzi <- Out

I know this is tl dr.
Last point... there are 2 ways to look at the rotation. 1st is, can the rotation get you to the playoffs without chewing up your BP. 2nd is, do you have the star SPs to win in the playoffs once you get there.

You need mid and back of the rotation guys to get you through the season. I'm fine considering Perez and Dunning as Innings guys. If they get you 5-6 IP and a 4.50 ERA... great. You take Heaney and Bradford for what they can do to protect the BP.
You need minimum of 3 SPs in the playoffs. Who are the matchups? Right now if we go Eovaldi-Gray as our 1-2... what are the other team's 1-2?!

Our 1-2 matches up with anyone else. Then, we have 3 guys who... if they remain healthy can be sorted out as a #3.

We could use a ToTR SP for a 1-2-3... but if you can't give me a 1-2-3 on another team that is better than Eovaldi-Gray-(Perez/Dunning/Heaney)... then our SP is fine.

I think giving some of the BP guys a chance to pitch in Yankee stadium helps them if we end up facing the Yankees in the playoffs. Find out how they pitch in NY.

I would love the McCutcheon deal... and Bednard would be outstanding.

What are you guys expecting it to cost?

Regarding Keller... never hurts to add another guy to the rotation. I believe he has 2 more Arb years and is a FA in 2026. How does he rate among Dunning (I think similar), Perez (hard to say), and Heaney (injury risk).

We talked about what kind of rotation guy would be interesting. I think most on here agree we'd like to see a 1 or 2... a 3/4/5 guy is interesting to get to the finish line, but dos nothing for the playoffs.

I'm not saying our SP isn't capable of going up against other top teams SP, but its silly to pen these novels about how cherry-picked indicator does not bode well for Team X or Team Y but this cherry-picked indicator bodes well for Texas (BP vs SP, heavier usage of slider, take out shortened season, home era vs road era, etc...). It's like your analysis of why Martin Perez really is a #2/#3 type pitcher despite the 1300 innings that say otherwise.

You can't on one hand say that a guy throwing 30 more innings than he's ever had is going to lead to a precipitous downturn in late July/August but then just gloss over a guy like Eovaldi is pitching a full run and a half better than his 1300 inning career... and a run better than his "last 3 years".

I've said it numerous times over the years - you love statistics but you don't actually know how to apply them correctly and instead choose to cherry pick whatever statistics support the argument you want to make.

Great... looking for your commentary, opinions, and application of information. Other than... "Pitcher A has a X.YZ ERA and therefore that is what he is."

I mean we could just look at career ERAs and deem a pitcher as such.

Will a SP in Colorado have exactly the same ERA if he moves from Colorado to Texas? Probably. According to you.

Will a SP that has never thrown over 100 IP be solid at 170-180 IP? Apparently so.

Thanks.