Beau Holder said:

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I'm liking Yordan to get his revenge today with Montgomery not having the help of a virus.

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Monty also showed his cards. Yordan has seen it and knows how he'll be attacked. I doubt it works again. Monty is going to need to have some else up his sleeve.

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Beau Holder said:

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Tucker's body language last night looked like it's going to get worse, not better. Frustration with the bat drops and not even making it halfway to first on the ground ball. It's completely in his head now.

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Sure, but that's a fairly normal thing for him when he slumps. The bat gets thrown/slammed a lot. Pretty sure he's slammed it on a bloop hit to RF before too when he thought it was an out. Everyone likes to claim "they don't care" when we lose, but I don't think you show that kind of emotion if you don't care. Even if someone is not doing that, I don't think it's a sign of not caring.

Where I see the lack of confidence is in the field. Someone who trusts himself makes those 2 plays he didn't the last 2 games. His defense regressed this year because he's not reacting to the ball off the bat. I don't think he's seen it well at all. He still makes a direct route, he's just not moving immediately.

Sure, he probably should moved a little more on the ground ball, but everyone takes plays off on simple ground outs. Altuve did it yesterday or the game before. I don't get why people freak out about that. Pretty much all our guys busty their ass if there is a chance.

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the line drive over his head was never getting caught…I believe that's one of the plays you are referencing.

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it had a 95% catch probability. yea, he blew that.

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And Yordan's had a 100% XBH% yet he trotted back to the bench when it was robbed. Those stats don't tell the whole story all of the time.

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no, they don't. but, Tucker has a habit of getting lackadaisical. in the post season, you can't have that moment.

This is a big game today .. Rangers pitcher likes pitching around the outside corners .. I hope we have patience to make him throw strikes and that the ump calls the game correctly.. last nights ump was terrible, we won the game with our bats so it didn't bother us that much but the guy made a ton of bad calls both ways…

We need to come out hot like the last 2 games ..

Farmer1906 said:

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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Beau Holder said:

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Tucker's body language last night looked like it's going to get worse, not better. Frustration with the bat drops and not even making it halfway to first on the ground ball. It's completely in his head now.

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Sure, but that's a fairly normal thing for him when he slumps. The bat gets thrown/slammed a lot. Pretty sure he's slammed it on a bloop hit to RF before too when he thought it was an out. Everyone likes to claim "they don't care" when we lose, but I don't think you show that kind of emotion if you don't care. Even if someone is not doing that, I don't think it's a sign of not caring.

Where I see the lack of confidence is in the field. Someone who trusts himself makes those 2 plays he didn't the last 2 games. His defense regressed this year because he's not reacting to the ball off the bat. I don't think he's seen it well at all. He still makes a direct route, he's just not moving immediately.

Sure, he probably should moved a little more on the ground ball, but everyone takes plays off on simple ground outs. Altuve did it yesterday or the game before. I don't get why people freak out about that. Pretty much all our guys busty their ass if there is a chance.

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the line drive over his head was never getting caught…I believe that's one of the plays you are referencing.

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it had a 95% catch probability. yea, he blew that.

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And Yordan's had a 100% XBH% yet he trotted back to the bench when it was robbed. Those stats don't tell the whole story all of the time.

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Just an FYI.

Catch probability and xBA are different things.

Catch probability measures the distance needed by time. If Tucker has to move 20 feet in 4 seconds, then how often do players catch balls with that distance & hangtime?

The expected batting Avg is based on EV & LA.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Yordan's xBA of 1.000 mean that his was the first batted ball since 2015 when they started measuring to have had the EV/LA it did and result in an out?

Sorry if this was discussed earlier and I missed it. Does anyone have info on the HP ump today? Good/ bad or otherwise?

I believe you are 100% correct.

fullback44 said:

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This is a big game today .. Rangers pitcher likes pitching around the outside corners .. I hope we have patience to make him throw strikes and that the ump calls the game correctly.. last nights ump was terrible, we won the game with our bats so it didn't bother us that much but the guy made a ton of bad calls both ways…

We need to come out hot like the last 2 games ..

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yup. we need to jump on Montgomery like we did the previous 2 pitchers. It seems like a cliche thing. But, the Astros post season success truly comes down to getting to the opposing teams bullpen early.

aggie813 said:

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Sorry if this was discussed earlier and I missed it. Does anyone have info on the HP ump today? Good/ bad or otherwise?

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Can't be worse than yesterday...hopefully.

Current mood:

Red Five said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Beau Holder said:

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Tucker's body language last night looked like it's going to get worse, not better. Frustration with the bat drops and not even making it halfway to first on the ground ball. It's completely in his head now.

---

Sure, but that's a fairly normal thing for him when he slumps. The bat gets thrown/slammed a lot. Pretty sure he's slammed it on a bloop hit to RF before too when he thought it was an out. Everyone likes to claim "they don't care" when we lose, but I don't think you show that kind of emotion if you don't care. Even if someone is not doing that, I don't think it's a sign of not caring.

Where I see the lack of confidence is in the field. Someone who trusts himself makes those 2 plays he didn't the last 2 games. His defense regressed this year because he's not reacting to the ball off the bat. I don't think he's seen it well at all. He still makes a direct route, he's just not moving immediately.

Sure, he probably should moved a little more on the ground ball, but everyone takes plays off on simple ground outs. Altuve did it yesterday or the game before. I don't get why people freak out about that. Pretty much all our guys busty their ass if there is a chance.

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the line drive over his head was never getting caught…I believe that's one of the plays you are referencing.

---

it had a 95% catch probability. yea, he blew that.

---

And Yordan's had a 100% XBH% yet he trotted back to the bench when it was robbed. Those stats don't tell the whole story all of the time.

---

Just an FYI.

Catch probability and xBA are different things.

Catch probability measures the distance needed by time. If Tucker has to move 20 feet in 4 seconds, then how often do players catch balls with that distance & hangtime?

The expected batting Avg is based on EV & LA.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Yordan's xBA of 1.000 mean that his was the first batted ball since 2015 when they started measuring to have had the EV/LA it did and result in an out?

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It's not surprising they don't account for a HR potentially being caught multiple feet out of the park. It was a hell of a play. Ken Griffey Jr. esque.

Bochy really changed his up today.

I know we have JV going, but I'm not feeling great about today. I'm glad to be headed back to MMP after this; but am worried about winning 2 there. Hard to sweep anywhere (I know we did it earlier this year...), but this is a pretty good Arlington team. We will ge their best shot today.

Hope we can hit this guy today.

Furlock Bones said:

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fullback44 said:

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This is a big game today .. Rangers pitcher likes pitching around the outside corners .. I hope we have patience to make him throw strikes and that the ump calls the game correctly.. last nights ump was terrible, we won the game with our bats so it didn't bother us that much but the guy made a ton of bad calls both ways…

We need to come out hot like the last 2 games ..

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yup. we need to jump on Montgomery like we did the previous 2 pitchers. It seems like a cliche thing. But, the Astros post season success truly comes down to getting to the opposing teams bullpen early.

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I want to see how they handle it if we do. Do they go full on stopper with someone like Leclerc and try to ride him an inning plus? Their in some pretty terrible shape outside of Leclerc, Chapman, & Sborz.

Smith, Perez, Stratton, & Bradford have all thrown back to back. All 4 threw over 20 pitches yesterday. This would be 3x in 3 days.

They basically have to get all their outs from Monty, Gray, and their 7-8-9 (Leclerc, Chapman, & Sborz.) maybe Scherzer but then it might ruin his chance at throwing game 7 and just a very unfamiliar role.

Anything less than 5-6 from Monty is going to make Bochy earn his money pulling levers.

In regards to guys hustling- it always drove me crazy when guys just half-assed down the line on a grounder.

I asked a former player about this once and he said these guys usually have a really good idea of whether they have a shot to beat it out.. and often the slim chance of a bobble doesn't outweigh the chance of straining a hamstring by pushing it. Makes sense I guess.

aggie813 said:

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Sorry if this was discussed earlier and I missed it. Does anyone have info on the HP ump today? Good/ bad or otherwise?

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I believe it is Marvin Hudson. He was the umpire behind the plate in the 18 inning game against the Mariners last year in the ALDS.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Everything I've read from the "experts" says to take the under. I'm not sure I agree. Both teams have seen both of these pitchers and I think both teams will get their share of licks in. It's going to come down to who can prevent the one big inning.

I could see neither starter going more than 5 and then the bullpen takes over. Advantage Astros.

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Agreed. Expect more runs than game 1. Joyfully by yhe good guys.

For sure they will be using Leclerc Sborz and Chapman today .. those are their best relievers .. no reason not to use them, all 3, plus they are rested… Botchy knows what he is doing, he saved his best relievers to line up with his best 2 pitchers .. hell any coach would do that

Somewhat agree but I wonder if none of them having thrown since Monday will hurt more than help, at least for one or two of them.

Regardless of what he does today Montgomery is making himself a ton of money.

What would his FA deal look like and is Texas going to make a run at signing him? Can they afford that?

Ag_07 said:

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Regardless of what he does today Montgomery is making himself a ton of money.

What would his FA deal look like and is Texas going to make a run at signing him? Can they afford that?

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they can if they want to. but, yea he's going to make some fat stacks of cheddah.

That have a bunch of money already sunk in starting pitching. I think he'll get something similar to Webb, Wheeler, Musgrove, Darvish, Castillo (bought out service time).

5-6 year, 90-120 M range.

Yes this could be true as well.. we didn't use our top relievers yesterday because we didn't need them late in the game .. we will / should have them for the rest of this series. Even if they pitch tonight they will get an extra rest day w travel, but so will the Rangers so we will prob see a heavy dose of LeClerc Sborz and Chaman the next 2-3 games .. just have to show them the big boy bats !

This series is one hell of a series .. todays game is huge for who ever can get the win