texasaggie2015 said:

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This.

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So is your understanding that the FO will have a strong voice in lineups again this postseason?

Rome with another banger of an article today. I grabbed the main points below.

https://theathletic.com/4923997/2023/10/03/astros-road-trip-lessons/

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What we learned from Astros' do-or-die road trip and how it may impact October

The Astros' postseason really started seven days ago during a season-defining road trip. To secure a spot in October and maintain faint hope of an American League West title, every game felt like a must-win.
...
Examining the details of those high-stakes victories affords a glimpse into how manager Dusty Baker and his coaching staff will operate in October. Here are five things we learned:

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Quote:

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It's going to be difficult for Yainer Diaz to play

Diaz took five plate appearances during the most crucial six games of Houston's season.

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Rubber meets the road, Dusty is going all in on Maldy. Sucks, but I think it is what it is at this point. The handling of the catcher position / Yainer not playing more 1B/LF/DH is probably the biggest issue of the season or at least tied with the Chas BS.

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Teams are going to challenge Jos Abreu

Seattle's season was on the line in this game, so Servais managed like it. It's not unreasonable to expect managers to act similarly in October. Facing Abreu feels far less daunting than either Alvarez or Tucker ahead of him.

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Its almost like Abreu shouldn't be able to be challenged in place of Alvarez & Tucker. Maybe he should be batting in the 7 hole.

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The third and fourth starters

Verlander and Valdez will almost certainly start the first two games of the ALDS. Nothing after Houston's co-aces is easy to decipher.

Matchups dictate everything in October, so the Astros will need to await the winner of the series between Minnesota and Toronto to develop a clear pitching plan for the remainder of the series.

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Neither Javier nor Urquidy is foolproof. Urquidy boasts a 5.29 ERA, is still not stretched out beyond 70 or so pitches and struggled to miss bats during his start against the D-backs. Javier's inefficiency and inconsistent fastball are ongoing problems and only finished six innings twice in his past 11 starts.

Both men, however, boast what France and Brown do not: experience starting on the sport's biggest stage

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I think Chandler is somewhat missing here. They have treated Javier like a top-end guy all season even with all his struggles. He's paid like it. He's shown flashes of his old self this year. He ended the year fairly strong too. He's the clear #3. #4 matters a lot less. Start Urquidy, but know its an all hands on deck game.

Stat - Last 4 Starts / Season #s
ERA - 3.05 / 4.56
FIP - 3.06 / 4.58
xFIP - 3.97 / 5.16
SIERA - 3.71 / 4.76
K% - 32.5% / 23.1%
EV - 89.1 / 89.1
LA - 27.2 / 24.3 (more pop ups)
Barrel% - 4.2% / 9.4%

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Controlling the running game is a problem

Seattle and Arizona attempted nine stolen bases across the six games against Houston. Eight were successful.

Both Astros catchers boast above-average arm strength and have nearly identical pop times. Maldonado averages 82 mph on his throws with an average pop time of 1.93 seconds. Diaz, in a far smaller sample size, sits at 85 mph with a 1.90-second pop time. Major-league average pop time is 1.99 seconds.

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Struggles to adjust to the pitch clock and limited disengagements have been apparent all season and could be exposed in October. Houston's pitchers are too slow with their times to home plate and, most of the time, provide neither of the team's catchers a chance to throw anyone out.

Baseball Savant measures the average distance of a runner from second base when a pitch crosses the plate. League average is 56 feet. When Maldonado catches, runners are 53.9 feet from second base. They are 54.1 feet from the bag when Diaz is behind the plate. Translation: runners are stealing off Houston's pitchers.

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100% Agree and I am glad Chandler broke it down to now **** on Maldy here. Its one of the thing Maldy still does well.

[url=https://theathletic.com/mlb/player/mauricio-dubon-lAB5G60IkqHl6uEV/][/url]

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Mauricio Dubn is viewed as the team's best defensive center fielder

Dubn started three of the team's final six games in center field. In a fourth, he entered in the ninth inning with Houston clinging to a one-run lead on Saturday, the clearest sign yet that Baker views him as Houston's best defensive center fielder.

Dubn finished the year worth four outs above average in center field. Teammate Jake Meyers is worth nine, but it's clear Baker prefers Dubn's arm and overall defensive profile.

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I think Chandler needs to say DUSTY views Dubon as the team's best outfielder. Meyers is the best. He's 11 in OAA in limited playing time and 4th in Jump. He makes the make sense as a CF "closer".

But I will say Dubon has come on fairly strong defensively. He's not elite, but he's not an issue. He's above avg with a good arm.

Let's just hope his PT is more dependent on match-up. If a LHP starts, an OF with Dubon & Chas makes some sense (Brantley to the bench).


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Ketch, do you think the final stretch will be paid similarly to the postseason or will there be greater influence from the front office? It is a fair point by Rome that the last week has basically been "playoff baseball".

I'm really not sure what the lineups will look like. I know the FO will play a big part in constructing them, but as far as what they have in mind, I'm not sure. I expect that to be played pretty close to the vest.

AustinCountyAg said:

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can we please STFU about the rangers in this thread now. Time to move on from them until/if we meet them in the playoffs. It's starting to look pretty sad on our part. They are beneath us and should be treated as such. Damn near every post on the last five pages is about them. Winning the division and them collapsing was cool and all, but I DGAF about that anymore. I want playoff wins.

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Not playing for four more days is a nice problem to have. Enjoying this AL West title is more important than giving Arlington attention, as much as I love some schadenfreude and rubbing their faces in it. This division crown means more than the others have and was a huge step for this team after enduring a season that was one long gut check. I was a bit concerned about the division race wearing this team out before the postseason so hopefully the time off will be a good thing.

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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AustinCountyAg said:

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can we please STFU about the rangers in this thread now. Time to move on from them until/if we meet them in the playoffs. It's starting to look pretty sad on our part. They are beneath us and should be treated as such. Damn near every post on the last five pages is about them. Winning the division and them collapsing was cool and all, but I DGAF about that anymore. I want playoff wins.

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I get that but no offense. We have the next 4 days off and they have 3 baseball games before then. I fully expect discussion on the ongoing playoffs before our game starts Saturday

I agree with you moving on with the end of the season and their constant bleeding but this is now an Astros focused playoff baseball thread at the moment.

I doubt we even get a lineup idea until Thursday so we can't even discuss that currently.

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Well we could argue who should or who should not make the roster for the Division Series and what changes should or should not be made as the 'Stros progress in the postseason. Then again much of this depends on who we face so it would be nothing but speculation. But other than over reacting, that is what TexAgs does best.

Time to play....

Guess

The

Postseason

Roster

!!!!


13 Position
Starters

• Maldonado
• Abreu
• Altuve
• Bregman
• Pena
• Alvarez
• McCormick
• Tucker

Bench (locks)

• Brantley
• Dubon
• Diaz

Bench (possibly)

• Singleton (left handed PH)
• Kessinger (back up INF & PR)
• Meyers (back up OF & PR)

One of the 3 will get left off. I am leaning toward Singleton.

Other Possibilities

• Salazar (3rd catcher)
• Julks (lol)
• Hensley (LOL)

13 Pitchers
SP

• Verlander
• Valdez
• Javier

SP/Long

• Urquidy
• Brown
• France

High Leverage

• Pressly
• Abreu
• Neris

Med Leverage

• Graveman
• Stanek
• Maton
• Montero

Left Out

• Dubin
• Gage
• Kuhnel
• Martinez
• Mushinski
• Sousa (not eligible)

htxag09 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Quote:

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Teams are going to challenge Jos Abreu

Seattle's season was on the line in this game, so Servais managed like it. It's not unreasonable to expect managers to act similarly in October. Facing Abreu feels far less daunting than either Alvarez or Tucker ahead of him.

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Its almost like Abreu shouldn't be able to be challenged in place of Alvarez & Tucker. Maybe he should be batting in the 7 hole.

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Abreu was challenged and did well, no? 7-24 in those 2 series. Not holy crap amazing but still good, and he was responsible for every run against the DBacks before game 3. And it's been well documented how much better his OPS is with runners on....

Also, nobody on this lineup is really going to be worthy of being challenged when comparing them to Yordan and Tucker. Maybe Chas, and I could see that argument. But as good as Chas has been, he's had some crucial at bats where he looked absolutely terrible as well.....

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He did. But do you feel more comfortable projecting forward with the last 6 games of data or the previous 130+?

Chas would be the obvious choice, but he does have a bit of a K problem.

Should have known Farmer would be on top of it.

I wonder if we'll see more of a 2017-style pen with heavier reliance on starters like we saw with Peacock, Morton, and LMJ that year.

stoneca said:

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Start of Postseason review:

Do y'all think it was worth giving up our 2 best prospects for how JV has performed as an Astro?

Just trying to make conversion while we wait for Saturday.

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Astros probably don't make the playoffs without his last two starts so there is that.

We'll see how the prospects ultimately perform to do a proper accounting.

I'm hopeful the rest will really help guys like abreu and bregman. BP guys also. We really need good Pressly

Ag_07 said:

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I think it's almost a certainty they take a 3rd catcher.

For one they always do for the playoffs and now it's especially important so that Yanier can PH if needed and we'd still have a backup if Maldy gets hurt.

It's a must IMO or Diaz won't get a single AB.

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Hmmm apparently the emergency catcher is Kessinger.

I think Singleton gets left off and Salazar is added as a 3rd catcher. Need a 3rd catcher if Diaz has any hope of getting ABs.

On another note, I think we see this as the "normal" lineup Dusty will use.

Altuve 4
Bregman 5
Yordan DH
Tucker 9
Abreu 3
Chas 7
Dubon 8
Pena 6
Maldy 2

texasaggie2015 said:

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I'm expecting three catchers.

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That means Meyers or Kess get left off too then.

Unless we only carry 12 pitchers.

Might only go with 12 for the 5 game Divisional Series, I personally think it is risky only going with 12 in a 7 game series.

texasaggie2015 said:

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I'm expecting three catchers.

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Yep. Three is likely with no Manfred Man in the postseason. Then again if Dana can convince Dusty to let Diaz have the bulk of the innings behind the plate . . . Never mind, who am I kidding.

Wabs said:

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I think Singleton gets left off and Salazar is added as a 3rd catcher. Need a 3rd catcher if Diaz has any hope of getting ABs.

On another note, I think we see this as the "normal" lineup Dusty will use.

Altuve 4
Bregman 5
Yordan DH
Tucker 9
Abreu 3
Chas 7
Dubon 8
Pena 6
Maldy 2

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It won't be a "Dusty" lineup though. I wouldn't be surprised to see Abreu moved down. Although, Chas really struggeled down the stretch, so they might not opt to bump Cas ahead of him. It's a big "if", but if they start Diaz, I could see him going ahead of Abreu. I also think they are more likely to put him at DH than Dusty did.

As far as catcher goes the good news is that neither TOR or MIN really run that much.

AL SB ranks

TOR 10th (1 spot behind us at 99)
MIN 12th (86)

texasaggie2015 said:

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Yes

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But I think there needs to be some clarification. The way I observe things is the FO has a strong voice in the post season team construct and maybe has a strong voice on one or two guys.

Looking at least year, I think they basically told him to play Chas, but if they had their way, they would have left Yuli off the postseason roster and Mancini would have been starting at 1B all post. Dusty fought for Yuli and he got to decide he was going to be in the lineup. FO probably don't object too much because of the defense.

I think it will be similar this year too. I think a lot of people believe the FO will demand and insert Diaz into the lineup. I don't think that will be the case.

With Dubon playing much better this year, the FO can't quite force Chas in the lineup as starting CFer every game.

How can the FO argue if Dusty used MB at DH instead of Diaz? Very similar to Yuli and Trey last year.

I still maintain MB coming back was the worst thing for Yanier. Great for the Astros, bad for Yanier.

To sum up: Maldy catches 98% of the post and Diaz maybe has 15 ABs the entire post.

Mr President Elect said:

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Wabs said:

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I think Singleton gets left off and Salazar is added as a 3rd catcher. Need a 3rd catcher if Diaz has any hope of getting ABs.

On another note, I think we see this as the "normal" lineup Dusty will use.

Altuve 4
Bregman 5
Yordan DH
Tucker 9
Abreu 3
Chas 7
Dubon 8
Pena 6
Maldy 2

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It won't be a "Dusty" lineup though. I wouldn't be surprised to see Abreu moved down. Although, Chas really struggeled down the stretch, so they might not opt to bump Cas ahead of him. It's a big "if", but if they start Diaz, I could see him going ahead of Abreu. I also think they are more likely to put him at DH than Dusty did.

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I think it will be more of a Dusty lineup than people think. I don't believe the FO will be writing lineup cards.

I was asked if the FO would have a strong voice. The answer is yes.

They'll meet throughout the week and discuss the roster and they'll meet before every game and talk lineups and bullpen usage. I know that for a fact.

I can't speak to what the lineup will look like or even the roster. Things are kept pretty close to the vest this time of year.

A lot of the info I've shared about the postseason last year wasn't given to me until months later.

The Porkchop Express said:

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Today in Astros History:

October 3, 1999: Astros beat the Dodgers 9-4 to win the NL Central for the third straight year, get Mike Hampton a club-record 22nd win, and play their final regular-season game at the Astrodome.

Audio clip of Bill Brown calling the last out: http://www.astrosdaily.com/audio/99windiv.mp3

Happy to say I was at this one. Biggio had his 56th double, also a club record, and tied for the 5th-most since World War II. Team went 97-65 despite 27 games without Larry Dierker at the helm following his scary incident in the dugout.Bagwell had a season for the ages: 143 R, 42 HR, 126 RBI, 30 SB, 149 BB, 1.045 OPS.

Lima and Hampton combined to go 43-14, and Billy Wags was 4-1 with 39 saves and a 1.57 ERA.

Then we **** the bed vs. the Braves. .. again.

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Today in history I learned,

If you are at the Astrodome enjoying a game with the last of the dome foam and you're still celebrating when Wille Nelson sings "turn out the lights" and they do, you probably stayed too long....rough drive home...

texasaggie2015 said:

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Really confused on why so many people think I'm wrong about the front office's involvement. I've been explaining the structure all season.

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I believe you. It has been pretty obvious in how much better the postseason lineups are than the regular season the last couple of years.