***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

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R-Dog
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In reply to stoneca • 11:21p, 9/29/23
AG
stoneca said:
I don't understand why we only need 1 more win to clinch the playoffs. We only have a 1 game lead on Seattle and they hold the tiebreaker.


Because if we win 1 more, the only way to end up tied with SEA creates a 3 way with all 3 of us in which case SEA wins the division, and then we win the wild card via the head to head tiebreaker...TEX would be out.
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West Roxbury
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In reply to BTKAG97 • 11:21p, 9/29/23
BTKAG97 said:
stoneca said:
I don't understand why we only need 1 more win to clinch. We only have a 1 game lead on Seattle and they hold the tiebreaker.
If Seattle Sweeps, they get the Division and Houston gets a WC.
If Texas wins 1, they get the Division and Houston gets a WC.


If Seattle sweeps and we sweep, it's our division. We hold a one game lead over the M's. They can't catch us unless we lose.
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agproducer
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In reply to 512Ag • 11:21p, 9/29/23
AG
512Ag said:
Dirty Mike and the Boys said:
*******it this playoff before the playoffs environment is gonna take years off my life.

My wife just told me, "This regular season playoff stress has not been great for you." Ha


Tell her you need relief.
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Dirty Mike and the Boys
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In reply to agproducer • 11:22p, 9/29/23
AG
Agreed man. Urquidy is pretty much guaranteed nails in tough situations.
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to Mr President Elect • 11:22p, 9/29/23
AG
Mr President Elect said:
Does this seem right?

We win all 3:
- 2 seed if Tex loses 3+ of 4 vs M's
- 5 seed if Tex wins 2+ of 4 and BJ's lose 2+ of 4 Yanks / TB
- 6 seed otherwise

We win 2 of 3:
- 2 seed impossible. If Tex loses all 4. 3-way tie, M's would have best overall h2h record (since normal h2h is a 3-way tie)
- 5 seed if BJ's lose 3+ of 4 and M's lose 1+ of 4 OR Tex loses all 4 and BJs lose 2+ (we win 3-team here somehow)
- 6 seed if M's lose 1+ of 4 and BJ's win 2+ of 4 OR Tex loses all 4 and BJs win 3+
- can't miss playoffs as Tex would miss playoffs if M's win all 4 or possibly BJs miss if they lose 2+ and lose the 3-way tie

win 1 of 3:
- 5 seed if BJ's lose all 4 and M's lose 2+ of 4
- 6 seed if M's lose 2+ of 4 and BJ's win 1+ of 4
- miss playoffs if BJ's win 1+ of 4 and M's win 3+ of 4

win 0 of 3:
- 5 seed impossible
- 6 seed if M's lose 3+ of 4
- miss playoffs if M's win 2+ of 4


Edit to update per comments.


Updating with 2 left:

We win 2:
- 2: if Sea wins 1 more
- 5: Tor loses next 2 and Tex wins 2
- 6: Tex wins 2 and Tor wins 1+
- can't get left out of playoffs

We win 1 of 2:
- 2: not in play as Sea would win tiebreaker
- 5: Tor lose next 2 and Tex loses next 2
- 6: Sea loses 1+ OR Tex gets swept and Tor wins 1 more
- can't get left out of playoffs due to tiebreaker scenarios

We lose next 2:
- 2: not in play
- 5: not in play
- 6: Sea will need to lose next 2
- miss playoffs if Sea wins 1 more
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Farmer1906
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In reply to BTKAG97 • 11:22p, 9/29/23
AG
BTKAG97 said:
stoneca said:
I don't understand why we only need 1 more win to clinch. We only have a 1 game lead on Seattle and they hold the tiebreaker.
If Seattle Sweeps, they get the Division and Houston gets a WC.
If Texas wins 1, they get the Division and Houston gets a WC.


Wait.

If we go 0-2 and Seattle/Arlington go 1-1, we are left out.

Magic # should be 2 still.
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Hornbeck
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11:22p, 9/29/23
AG
Arlington getting shelled in Seattle.
They look lifeless.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Thunderstruck xx • 11:22p, 9/29/23
AG
Thunderstruck xx said:
Seattle rolling on Texas. Is that good or bad for us?
It's good for us because it means the rangerettes have to keep playing their starters. The fear was that if they clinched they would play their AAA team the rest of the way and Seattle would easily win the rest of them.

We win tomorrow and we're in the playoffs regardless of what happens in Seattle.

We win Sunday and we win the division unless texas wins the next two.
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kb2001
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In reply to Wabs • 11:22p, 9/29/23
AG
Wabs said:
So if the Astros OR the Mariners win tomorrow we have a spot. Correct?
No. Astros clinch with one more win. If the M's lose tomorrow, we could still be left out if we don't win Sunday and they do.
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CFTXAG10
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11:24p, 9/29/23
AG
Best case scenario for tomorrow, we win and Texas loses another one. The division would be there for the taking on Sunday
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Wabs
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In reply to kb2001 • 11:24p, 9/29/23
AG
kb2001 said:
Wabs said:
So if the Astros OR the Mariners win tomorrow we have a spot. Correct?
No. Astros clinch with one more win. If the M's lose tomorrow, we could still be left out if we don't win Sunday and they do.


Gotcha. My drunk ass misread that spreadsheet.
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West Roxbury
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11:24p, 9/29/23
By the way, just confirming….

Did the D-Backs clinch a playoff spot tonight with a Cubs loss?
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CFTXAG10
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In reply to West Roxbury • 11:25p, 9/29/23
AG
West Roxbury said:
By the way, just confirming….

Did the D-Backs clinch a playoff spot tonight with a Cubs loss?


Nvm . Math is hard. Reds have the season series 4-3 over the Dbacks
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Beat40
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11:25p, 9/29/23
OK - serious question for a moment. Let's say both the Mariners and Astros win tomorrow. Win tomorrow guarantees a postseason spot, but Sunday could mean the division title if the Astros and Mariners win Sunday. Both games at 2:10pm.

What do you think the organization and Dusty will do? WIll they:
A) Go for the division title
B) Be content with the post season spot and rest guys


What do YOU want the organization to do if in that position on Sunday?
A) Go for the division title
B) Be content with the post season spot and rest guys

I think the team organization would go for the chance at the division title simply given the rest that could be had from being division winners.

I also would take the gamble as I'd rather be guaranteed an ALDS than have to go through the wild card and play more games.
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txags11
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In reply to CFTXAG10 • 11:25p, 9/29/23
AG
They're not in yet..
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Bob Lee
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In reply to West Roxbury • 11:25p, 9/29/23
AG
West Roxbury said:
By the way, just confirming….

Did the D-Backs clinch a playoff spot tonight with a Cubs loss?


No. They need a win or Reds loss
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iamtheglove
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:25p, 9/29/23
Farmer1906 said:
Wabs said:
So if the Astros OR the Mariners win tomorrow we have a spot. Correct?


Astros win or Mariners loss.
I don't think that is right. Per the chart if the mariners only win 3 vs Arlington and we only win 1 of 3 vs d backs we're out
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kb2001
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In reply to West Roxbury • 11:25p, 9/29/23
AG
West Roxbury said:
By the way, just confirming….

Did the D-Backs clinch a playoff spot tonight with a Cubs loss?
No. The Reds can tie them, and the Reds hold tiebreaker over Arizona
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BadAggie
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11:26p, 9/29/23
AG
If Astros their final two games they are in the playoffs.

If Astros go 1-1 they need Seattle to lose a game to make the playoffs.

If Astros go 0-2 they need Seattle to lose their last two games to make the playoffs.

Assuming Arlington loses tonight, if they lose one more and Astros win their final two games then Astros win the division.
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West Roxbury
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In reply to kb2001 • 11:26p, 9/29/23
Damn. We need the Reds to lose.
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Wabs
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11:26p, 9/29/23
AG
My man Urquidy. Incredible.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to West Roxbury • 11:26p, 9/29/23
AG
West Roxbury said:
By the way, just confirming….

Did the D-Backs clinch a playoff spot tonight with a Cubs loss?


Not quite.

The Reds can catch them still.
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Bob Lee
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In reply to Beat40 • 11:26p, 9/29/23
AG
I was literally just contemplating this. I try to win Sunday. That's just me. I don't like our chances to go far if we have to play a WC series the way our starting pitching has been this year.
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astros4545
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In reply to Beat40 • 11:27p, 9/29/23
AG
Beat40 said:
OK - serious question for a moment. Let's say both the Mariners and Astros win tomorrow. Win tomorrow guarantees a postseason spot, but Sunday could mean the division title if the Astros and Mariners win Sunday. Both games at 2:10pm.

What do you think the organization and Dusty will do? WIll they:
A) Go for the division title
B) Be content with the post season spot and rest guys


What do YOU want the organization to do if in that position on Sunday?
A) Go for the division title
B) Be content with the post season spot and rest guys

I think the team organization would go for the chance at the division title simply given the rest that could be had from being division winners.

I also would take the gamble as I'd rather be guaranteed an ALDS than have to go through the wild card and play more games.
All out for division with no debate

DIvision 100% advances you to next round

Coming up short only hurts your Wild card chances by a few percent in a best of 3 series
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astros4545
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In reply to BadAggie • 11:28p, 9/29/23
AG
BadAggie said:
If Astros their final two games they are in the playoffs.

If Astros go 1-1 they need Seattle to lose a game to make the playoffs.

If Astros go 0-2 they need Seattle to lose their last two games to make the playoffs.

Assuming Arlington loses tonight, if they lose one more and Astros win their final two games then Astros win the division.
If Astros win 1 game...they are in playoffs regardless of anything else
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Socrates05
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In reply to Beat40 • 11:28p, 9/29/23
AG
Beat40 said:
OK - serious question for a moment. Let's say both the Mariners and Astros win tomorrow. Win tomorrow guarantees a postseason spot, but Sunday could mean the division title if the Astros and Mariners win Sunday. Both games at 2:10pm.

What do you think the organization and Dusty will do? WIll they:
A) Go for the division title
B) Be content with the post season spot and rest guys


What do YOU want the organization to do if in that position on Sunday?
A) Go for the division title
B) Be content with the post season spot and rest guys

I think the team organization would go for the chance at the division title simply given the rest that could be had from being division winners.

I also would take the gamble as I'd rather be guaranteed an ALDS than have to go through the wild card and play more games.


1 win there gets you a bye. You have to go all out for it.
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maca1028
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In reply to BadAggie • 11:28p, 9/29/23
I don't think that's right. We win 1 and we're in.
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Farmer1906
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11:28p, 9/29/23
AG
Kelly is very good. His change up is one of the toughest pitches in baseball. He has a true 5 pitch mix. We're going to have our hands full. It would have been nice to have AZ clinch already so they'd pull him early. Reds play just 55 min before us.
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to BadAggie • 11:28p, 9/29/23
AG
BadAggie said:
If Astros their final two games they are in the playoffs.

If Astros go 1-1 they need Seattle to lose a game to make the playoffs.

If Astros go 0-2 they need Seattle to lose their last two games to make the playoffs.

Assuming Arlington loses tonight, if they lose one more and Astros win their final two games then Astros win the division.
No, we get in. Tex or Tor would get left out.
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Aggie8587
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In reply to BadAggie • 11:28p, 9/29/23
AG
BadAggie said:
If Astros their final two games they are in the playoffs.

If Astros go 1-1 they need Seattle to lose a game to make the playoffs.

If Astros go 0-2 they need Seattle to lose their last two games to make the playoffs.

Assuming Arlington loses tonight, if they lose one more and Astros win their final two games then Astros win the division.
This isn't right. If the Astros win one of the final 2 games, we're in the postseason
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BadAggie
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In reply to iamtheglove • 11:28p, 9/29/23
AG
iamtheglove said:
Farmer1906 said:
Wabs said:
So if the Astros OR the Mariners win tomorrow we have a spot. Correct?


Astros win or Mariners loss.
I don't think that is right. Per the chart if the mariners only win 3 vs Arlington and we only win 1 of 3 vs d backs we're out


Magic number v Seattle is 2. Need an Astro win and a Mariner loss tomorrow to clinch.

If Astros then won on Sunday and Rangers lose then Astros win division.

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Farmer1906
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In reply to Beat40 • 11:29p, 9/29/23
AG
Beat40 said:
OK - serious question for a moment. Let's say both the Mariners and Astros win tomorrow. Win tomorrow guarantees a postseason spot, but Sunday could mean the division title if the Astros and Mariners win Sunday. Both games at 2:10pm.

What do you think the organization and Dusty will do? WIll they:
A) Go for the division title
B) Be content with the post season spot and rest guys


What do YOU want the organization to do if in that position on Sunday?
A) Go for the division title
B) Be content with the post season spot and rest guys

I think the team organization would go for the chance at the division title simply given the rest that could be had from being division winners.

I also would take the gamble as I'd rather be guaranteed an ALDS than have to go through the wild card and play more games.


110% go for it.
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BTKAG97
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:29p, 9/29/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
BTKAG97 said:
stoneca said:
I don't understand why we only need 1 more win to clinch. We only have a 1 game lead on Seattle and they hold the tiebreaker.
If Seattle Sweeps, they get the Division and Houston gets a WC.
If Texas wins 1, they get the Division and Houston gets a WC.
Wait.

If we go 0-2 and Seattle/Arlington go 1-1, we are left out.

Magic # should be 2 still.
The Astros have to win 1 of the last 2. If they lose both then they need Texas to win 2. It's not a straight magic number 2.
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AggieJ2002
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11:30p, 9/29/23
AG
Can't overstate how big that win was ... Got JV with a real shot to lock up a berth and put pressure on the Rangers to win the division, but if we cant pull it out tomorrow we got a shot on Sunday in a game that would mean nothing to the Dbacks
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R-Dog
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In reply to BadAggie • 11:30p, 9/29/23
AG
BadAggie said:
If Astros their final two games they are in the playoffs.

If Astros go 1-1 they need Seattle to lose a game to make the playoffs.

If Astros go 0-2 they need Seattle to lose their last two games to make the playoffs.

Assuming Arlington loses tonight, if they lose one more and Astros win their final two games then Astros win the division.


1-1 scenario is not right. 1-1 and Seattle completing the sweep creates a 3 way tie for the division. Seattle wins the division based on best record among the 3 clubs. Then it reverts to head to head between us and the Rangers. We get the wild card...Texas is out
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