***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

6,503,289 Views | 114825 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by texasaggie2015
Marvin
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BTKAG97 said:

BMX Bandit said:

Oracle has spoken!

Astros 5-5; 90-72
Rangers 6-4; 90-72
Mariners 5-5; 89-73


Astros go 5-5 over their last 9?


Good point. Based on the last nine they already played, 5 wins might be tough.
lead
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lead said:

Some serious BAS in here. ESPN has us 96% chance making playoffs

9/20:HOU-90%, TEX-74%, TOR-71%, SEA-65%
9/21:HOU-92%, TOR-75%, TEX-73%, SEA-60%
Ciboag96
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Ciboag96 said:

spadilly said:


Off days….




Me knowing I won't have Vietnam flashbacks from a Dusty lineup card today




Prosperdick
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rosco511 said:

JDUB08AG said:

Boiling Denim said:

Pressly' catcher splits are getting a little ridiculous

Maldy: 45.2 IP, 4.14 ERA, .669 OPS

Diaz: 15 IP, 1.2 ERA, ~.400 OPS

Probably too small a sample size as one blow up with Diaz catching can skew the numbers but based on other comments maybe Diaz is getting help calling his pitches and he's throwing the fb more with him


Diaz is better than maldy in literally every measurable statistic. Every single damn one of them.


And Diaz is even better in the most important stat which is win-loss percentage, and this is the only other stat you could use if you are trying to argue Maldy has some unmeasurable intangible value.
I was trying to find the clip from earlier in the season before the ASB, when Diaz was just coming on strong and Dusty was first being asked about him and he said something to the effect that "it just seems the team wins more with Maldy behind the plate." It was absurd...yes, we had just concluded a decent size winning streak where Maldy of course caught most of the games and contributed nothing offensively nor defensively to the effort but we were winning and galaxy brain wanted to give the credit to him.

Of course he doesn't use that talking point anymore. He just deflects and says Diaz will thank him later since he's a rookie and I suppose it doesn't matter how well he hits or plays, Hank Aaron told him long ago you got to have a vet behind the dish or some other fortune cookie wisdom.
Prosperdick
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BadAggie said:

Diaz's numbers on a full season basis would be filthy and not only ROY level but all-star and MVP, at the most demanding position.

In a couple years that trade with Cleveland might start to be thought of along the lines of the Larry Andersen and Josh Fields trades.


Projected stats show a full season of Diaz he would hit 37 homers. Of course that's just fan stuff.
bearkatag15
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Prosperdick said:

BadAggie said:

Diaz's numbers on a full season basis would be filthy and not only ROY level but all-star and MVP, at the most demanding position.

In a couple years that trade with Cleveland might start to be thought of along the lines of the Larry Andersen and Josh Fields trades.


Projected stats show a full season of Diaz he would hit 37 homers. Of course that's just fan stuff.


Hopefully the next manager allows him to catch 4-5 days a week and DH the other 1-2 days
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
BMX Bandit
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BTKAG97 said:

BMX Bandit said:

Oracle has spoken!

Astros 5-5; 90-72
Rangers 6-4; 90-72
Mariners 5-5; 89-73


Astros go 5-5 over their last 9?


Farmer1906
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Odd to see it drop after a win, but I guess the other teams keeping it close means there is more opportunity to chaos.





Here is how the books show the West
Astros: -115 to -140
Mariners: +200 to +250
Rangers: +300 to +310
Prosperdick
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bearkatag15 said:

Prosperdick said:

BadAggie said:

Diaz's numbers on a full season basis would be filthy and not only ROY level but all-star and MVP, at the most demanding position.

In a couple years that trade with Cleveland might start to be thought of along the lines of the Larry Andersen and Josh Fields trades.


Projected stats show a full season of Diaz he would hit 37 homers. Of course that's just fan stuff.


Hopefully the next manager allows him to catch 4-5 days a week and DH the other 1-2 days
Not sure what more else he could do at this point. I suppose hit lefties better...oh wait, he did that last night. Pretty soon Donkey will have zero talking points except that he's a rookie. I would love Chandler to follow it up with a rookie Pena question to Dusty and watch him explode.
texasaggie2015
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I can neither confirm nor deny if that's that's me
Farmer1906
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W
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I don't know how deep into the weeds fangraphs gets...

but three data points regarding the division race:

- the Astros were helpless yesterday vs. Bradish's plus slider (again)

- Castillo, Kirby, and Miller (and their plus sliders) are lined up for the Astros next week

- that darn tiebreaker

-----
the Astros need to get separation from the Mariners this weekend (for the division race)
Farmer1906
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I doubt it goes into individual pitch matchups, but Zips looks into all sorts of projections.

Since you brought up the slider (including sweeper here), the Astros have seen more slider/sweepers than any other team, almost 26% of the pitches seen. However, as a team, we rank 8th in wOBA & 10th in xwOBA. That's not terrible. Clearly, it is a weakness since we're 5th in wOBA & xwOBA without pitches being filtered.

Atlanta laps the field in xwOBA for slider sweepers. The difference between 1st and 2nd is the same as 2nd and 20th.

Astros vs Slider/Sweep (min 100 pitches) xwOBA
1. Alvarez - .387
2. Tucker - .327
3. Diaz - .304
...
10. Maldonado - .267
11. Pena - .257
12. Julks - .242
Bag
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lead said:

lead said:

Some serious BAS in here. ESPN has us 96% chance making playoffs

9/20:HOU-90%, TEX-74%, TOR-71%, SEA-65%
9/21:HOU-92%, TOR-75%, TEX-73%, SEA-60%
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics


All of these teams have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs and yet we know with 100% certainty that one of them will not
Farmer1906
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Bag said:

lead said:

lead said:

Some serious BAS in here. ESPN has us 96% chance making playoffs

9/20:HOU-90%, TEX-74%, TOR-71%, SEA-65%
9/21:HOU-92%, TOR-75%, TEX-73%, SEA-60%
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics


All of these teams have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs and yet we know with 100% certainty that one of them will not
Add up 1 - "each team's odds" and let me know what you get.
BMX Bandit
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Quote:

All of these teams have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs and yet we know with 100% certainty that one of them will not
you may be confused on how this works.
Mr.Bond
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Bag said:

lead said:

lead said:

Some serious BAS in here. ESPN has us 96% chance making playoffs

9/20:HOU-90%, TEX-74%, TOR-71%, SEA-65%
9/21:HOU-92%, TOR-75%, TEX-73%, SEA-60%
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics


All of these teams have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs and yet we know with 100% certainty that one of them will not
I was my understanding there would be no math.....


Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

LarryElder
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Nice day off from the drama must sweep this wknd
TarponChaser
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LarryElder said:

Nice day off from the drama must sweep this wknd
Are you kidding? With no game today all we have to do is ***** about Dusty sabotaging the season, intentional or not.
All I do is Nguyen
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TarponChaser said:

LarryElder said:

Nice day off from the drama must sweep this wknd
Are you kidding? With no game today all we have to do is ***** about Dusty sabotaging the season, intentional or not.
Bag
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BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

All of these teams have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs and yet we know with 100% certainty that one of them will not
you may be confused on how this works.
I know how it works, just making a point that I can prove almost anything if I am allowed to manipulate the data
Mr.Ackar07
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Here's something you don't see too often: The Twins can clinch their division today despite not having a game if both the Tigers (@OAK) and Indians Guardians (vs BAL) lose today.
Cromagnum
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AG


They better bring rum and a cigar too.
Farmer1906
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Bag said:

BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

All of these teams have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs and yet we know with 100% certainty that one of them will not
you may be confused on how this works.
I know how it works, just making a point that I can prove almost anything if I am allowed to manipulate the data


Who is manipulating the data?
Bag
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Farmer1906 said:

Bag said:

BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

All of these teams have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs and yet we know with 100% certainty that one of them will not
you may be confused on how this works.
I know how it works, just making a point that I can prove almost anything if I am allowed to manipulate the data


Who is manipulating the data?
it was a lighthearted attempt at humor, not to be taken too seriously, I just thought it was funny at first glance.
Farmer1906
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Bag said:

Farmer1906 said:

Bag said:

BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

All of these teams have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs and yet we know with 100% certainty that one of them will not
you may be confused on how this works.
I know how it works, just making a point that I can prove almost anything if I am allowed to manipulate the data


Who is manipulating the data?
it was a lighthearted attempt at humor, not to be taken too seriously, I just thought it was funny at first glance.


We'll stop it. Data is not funny. It's serious business.
The Porkchop Express
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Pretty excited to announce the debut of a new app I've developed - DUSTYVISION - which allows you to see things from Dusty Baker's point of view. Our debut image, Dusty's vision of Chas McCormick.

ttha_aggie_09
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The crazy thing is that he is actually faster than Maldonado...
Farmer1906
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He's 25.

So we get age 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, & 30.
Hulla Baller
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Farmer1906 said:



He's 25.

So we get age 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, & 30.
n_touch
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Farmer1906 said:



He's 25.

So we get age 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, & 30.
If current situations stay the way they are we will get 3 years of playing time out of him.
Ag_07
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On this off day can we stop and appreciate one Bryan Abreu?

He's gone from a shaky BP arm who had good stuff but couldn't really put it all together and couldn't be trusted and wasn't really on anyone's radar to last year being a huge piece to this year being an absolute stud and arguably the best and most consistent arm in our pen.

Dude is absolutely nails. I still think about him dotting up Stanton late with men on last year in that ALCS.

That's grown man shlt.
mwm
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That doesn't look like banana puddin' to me.
FrioAg 00
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Once Dusty is out of our way, I love our batting lineup for the next couple years.

I do think our pitching staff will require some overhaul for us to remain competitive
The Porkchop Express
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DUSTYVISION presents: Martin Maldonado

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