***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

6,527,718 Views | 114825 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by texasaggie2015
Mathguy64
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EastCoastAgNc said:

texasaggie2015 said:

Source says it's far from finalized but confirmed the JV talk is legit and it's heating up.
Any idea whether they have talked with JV regarding whether he would waive his no-trade to do this?


Surely that is the first thing they did.
EastCoastAgNc
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Mathguy64 said:

EastCoastAgNc said:

texasaggie2015 said:

Source says it's far from finalized but confirmed the JV talk is legit and it's heating up.
Any idea whether they have talked with JV regarding whether he would waive his no-trade to do this?


Surely that is the first thing they did.
Yeah, just don't want a public rejection or something drawn out like what Max did with the Rangers.
tjack16
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No Glasnow tomorrow
EastCoastAgNc
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JV is scheduled to start tomorrow for the Mets.
Mathguy64
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Tita worked today in the game.

Can't hurt here. Come on Kate. Get the band back together.

The Porkchop Express
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EastCoastAgNc said:



EastCoastAgNc
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They're getting greedy
BadAggie
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Farmer1906 said:

I hope the offense shows up against tomorrow because we're going to need it with Bielak. I hope Dusty has a quick hook. Guys are mostly fresh. Across the way it's Snell vs TBA. First place is in reach.


Bullpen game for Tampa.

But yes Bielak could put you in a hole early
AustinCountyAg
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Mathguy64 said:

Tita worked today in the game.

Can't hurt here. Come on Kate. Get the band back together.




Hell freezes over part 2 world SERIES tour?
texasaggie2015
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I can also confirm this
Mathguy64
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The Mets just paid for Max. Send them Montero and that's $10MM plus that helps
AustinCountyAg
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Verlanders agent deserves a raise. That's a helluva contract he got him from the Mets.
The Porkchop Express
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texasaggie2015 said:



I can also confirm this
Hold him out until June, shut him down at 139 2/3 innings.
EastCoastAgNc
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AustinCountyAg said:

Verlanders agent deserves a raise. That's a helluva contract he got him from the Mets.

I have a feeling Steve Cohen slid a blank check across the table for him.
AggiEE
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Is it really the worst thing in the world to pay one of the best pitchers in the game $35M for an extra year if he manages to make 140 innings?

Have any of his pitch metrics materially declined this year?
Farmer1906
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AggiEE said:

Is it really the worst thing in the world to pay one of the best pitchers in the game $35M for an extra year if he manages to make 140 innings?

Have any of his pitch metrics materially declined this year?


Yes. His fastball has gotten significantly worse thus far.
tjack16
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Verlander's ERA is down to 3.54, and is 1.69 in July (last 5 starts), and he's still going at least into the 6-7th inning each start
Mr.Bond
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I pray I wake up to 178 new post on this thread because we brought JV home
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

tjack16
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If the trade happens I'd assume it'll happen tomorrow since it's his start day.
BadAggie
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We don't know how Urquidy is going to perform upon his return.

Javier back in middle/long relief feels right this time.

Brown has the upside but just not ready (today great start).

Framber looking shaky.

Still a couple months before the postseason, players will focus, return of Alvarez and Altuve will have big impact assuming they stay healthy. Hey, Abreu might turn it around and Diaz and Chas might get more starts.

Still, need something more. Great, France put together some quality starts that helped a lot.

At the end of the day, another WS appearance is in reach, with JV and maybe another reliever and/or bat this is an opportunity to go all in and try to maximize the hardware count from this era, which has already been great.

This is 100% Crane's call, it requires a substantial financial commitment and he has a relationship with JV.
AggiEE
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Farmer1906 said:

AggiEE said:

Is it really the worst thing in the world to pay one of the best pitchers in the game $35M for an extra year if he manages to make 140 innings?

Have any of his pitch metrics materially declined this year?


Yes. His fastball has gotten significantly worse thus far.


Wasn't he around 95 mph on avg last year? This year it's just shy of that
Farmer1906
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AggiEE said:

Farmer1906 said:

AggiEE said:

Is it really the worst thing in the world to pay one of the best pitchers in the game $35M for an extra year if he manages to make 140 innings?

Have any of his pitch metrics materially declined this year?


Yes. His fastball has gotten significantly worse thus far.


Wasn't he around 95 mph on avg last year? This year it's just shy of that


I'm not talking about velo alone. That is down somewhat, but I'm talking about how effective the pitch is.

Here is the run value over the last few years along with the actual stats and expected. Note: you can ignore 2020. That's a one game sample.








Here is what the fastball is doing. Is going more drop (less effective spin / slower) but has lost movement (more straight).


Chrundle the Great
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https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10084480-justin-verlander-rumors-dodgers-interested-in-mets-sp-astros-trade-unrealistic


B/R making it sound like chandlers article is saying not Astros
AggiEE
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Chrundle the Great said:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10084480-justin-verlander-rumors-dodgers-interested-in-mets-sp-astros-trade-unrealistic


B/R making it sound like chandlers article is saying not Astros


Man that sucks.

Crane is all talk at times it seems
n_touch
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Yuli right now watching Graveman and possibly JV coming back

The Porkchop Express
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Farmer1906 said:

AggiEE said:

Farmer1906 said:

AggiEE said:

Is it really the worst thing in the world to pay one of the best pitchers in the game $35M for an extra year if he manages to make 140 innings?

Have any of his pitch metrics materially declined this year?


Yes. His fastball has gotten significantly worse thus far.


Wasn't he around 95 mph on avg last year? This year it's just shy of that


I'm not talking about velo alone. That is down somewhat, but I'm talking about how effective the pitch is.

Here is the run value over the last few years along with the actual stats and expected. Note: you can ignore 2020. That's a one game sample.








Here is what the fastball is doing. Is going more drop (less effective spin / slower) but has lost movement (more straight).



Farmer1906
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Chandler dropped this line: "The Astros have no prospects listed in the Top 100 of any public prospect rankings. "

Take a look at #49 on Fangraphs.
Farmer1906
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Here is the doubtful part of the article from Rome.


Quote:

Houston could perhaps create a prospect package that satisfies the Mets or trade from its major-league roster, but will find itself lagging if this turns into a competition with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have also expressed interest in Verlander and boast a far more bountiful farm system. If Crane is reluctant to pay the entire remaining contract or something close to it the prospect paucity presents the Astros' biggest hurdle.

After acquiring Graveman on Friday, Brown sounded like someone cautiously content with the starting rotation as it stands. He did not rule out adding another starter, saying "if we can land something that makes sense and we don't have to mortgage the farm, we may be in business on doing that." Putting together the type of prospect package Cohen and the Mets require could count as mortgaging the farm. Crane hired Brown, in part, for his drafting background and with the understanding that Houston's farm system needed to be refurbished.

On Friday, Brown emphasized that bolstering the bullpen was his biggest priority. It may no longer be his biggest emphasis, but because Brown still has interest in a starter, ignoring an available option is a dereliction of duty. Exploring a reunion with Verlander is part of his job description, but whether it will actually come to fruition is not his call.

For that, Crane may take the wheel.

Chrundle the Great
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So B/R headline was all about dodger fan clicks
AggiEE
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JV is perfect precisely because you don't need to mortgage the farm

You just need Crane to pay up…which he claims he's willing to do but sat by and did nothing about SP in the off-season
Farmer1906
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Here is my take. JV & his family are very comfortable in Houston. JV has a good understanding of what the pitching coaches bring here. JV has a relationship with Crane. He likes to win. He wants to win. I think he also likes the idea of going head to head with Scherzer to win the West and play him in the postseason potentially too. If JV holds things up by only waiving his clause for Houston, this is where we gain our negotiating advantage. How we potentially land him without paying full price like Arlington did with noted cheater Mad Max. But if JV is open to going to LA too then all bets are off if LA is willing to offer some of the names in the BR article. They 100% can outbid us and it maybe even sounds like ready and willing to.

I posted this a few days ago before the news got too crazy, but I wouldn't touch JV without a significant pay down on his deal. He's declining and will likely continue to in 24 and 25. We have other needs to address in the future. If I read the #s correctly, the Rangers are only paying Max 16-17 M next year. That is a reasonable number for what he brings. I think that would also be reasonable for JV next year. It cost them a top 50ish prospect to get that done. I would have a hard time stomaching giving up a Gilbert type prospect to get old man JV.
tremble
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B/R is pretty much a joke from what I've read. Who knows
Mathguy64
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Some of the contract buy down could be mitigated if we send them Montero. Use the player to offset actual cash transfer.
BadAggie
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EastCoastAgNc said:


They're getting greedy
I know we're sitting here on pins and needles hoping the Astros bring back JV but you have to chuckle at this kind of media narrative v reality. Chapman is a washed up has been that even the Yankees saw fit to get rid of, but yet, a 'name' so that means something.

Scherzer good but not exactly lighting it up this season and didn't do so last postseason.

JV has had a good July with a sub 2.00 ERA and looks like he's rounding into form after missing the first part of the season.

Still, you do wonder if a deal can't be reached that the better move here, taking into account that not having the financial commitment to JV in 2024 and 2025 and the flexibility to extend and re-sign your own free agents, would be to make less 'winning' moves in the eyes of the talking heads and go after lesser names at the trade deadline.

I saw Scherzer pitch in last year's series against the Padres. Wasn't pretty. Just saw Chapman cough up a 3 run HR to Chas.

As a fan don't get me wrong, I want JV back. But completely understand if it doesn't happen.
AggiEE
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Farmer1906 said:

Here is my take. JV & his family are very comfortable in Houston. JV has a good understanding of what the pitching coaches bring here. JV has a relationship with Crane. He likes to win. He wants to win. I think he also likes the idea of going head to head with Scherzer to win the West and play him in the postseason potentially too. If JV holds things up by only waiving his clause for Houston, this is where we gain our negotiating advantage. How we potentially land him without paying full price like Arlington did with noted cheater Mad Max. But if JV is open to going to LA too then all bets are off if LA is willing to offer some of the names in the BR article. They 100% can outbid us and it maybe even sounds like ready and willing to.

I posted this a few days ago before the news got too crazy, but I wouldn't touch JV without a significant pay down on his deal. He's declining and will likely continue to in 24 and 25. We have other needs to address in the future. If I read the #s correctly, the Rangers are only paying Max 16-17 M next year. That is a reasonable number for what he brings. I think that would also be reasonable for JV next year. It cost them a top 50ish prospect to get that done. I would have a hard time stomaching giving up a Gilbert type prospect to get old man JV.


JV is a steal at $17M/yr

Not going to happen. Astros will need to pay up. We aren't going to give up a massive prospect haul

But I have serious concerns with 2023 if we don't get a solid SP. doesn't need to be JV caliber, but we need a good number 3 or 4 guy that can eat innings reliably
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