***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

7,085,331 Views | 114825 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by texasaggie2015
agproducer
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I am too. I want Joc and Giolito.
agproducer
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shano0603 said:

chlavinka said:

We're basically down to our ninth starter … haven't been that bad, really. Need to get healthy and get some SP help at the deadline.

That's why I'm not worried. I love that some of these guys are getting the experience. And doing surprisingly well.


It's like the 2020 bullpen all over again, but with the starters
HarryRocket
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Maybe this is the rock bottom? I can hope.
W
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it's time for the Astros to get it together...starting this week.

their division and wildcard competition are playing one another.

Angels vs. the Rangers for 4 games

Blue Jays vs. the Orioles this week

then Blue Jays vs. the Rangers this weekend

chance to gain or separate from all of them
tjack16
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We need to get it to about 2 games by the All Star break and then hopefully the moves we make will push us past the rangers
Deluxe
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What's everyone's RoS base case right now? Here's mine:

  • We don't see LMJ this year
  • Brantley returns in July but at 85%. Whether that 85% is more productive than what we've got is tbd.
  • Urquidy returns from the IL in July on schedule
  • Yordan's injury doesn't keep him out too long and he resumes domination in a few weeks
  • Abreu's recent form continues and he OPS in the .750-800 range RoS
  • We make two "impact" acquisitions approaching the deadline (to add hypothetical names from a recent TexasAggie2015 post, call those two acquisitions Eduardo Rodriguez and Cody Bellinger)
  • Chas is included in one of the aforementioned deals
  • Diaz's emergence means we don't have to deal for a catcher at the deadline (which is a reasonably big deal IMO)

If all those things are true, here's how we look in Aug/Sept:

Bullpen: Not too worried about it. Either they flip the switch and get hot or they don't. We've got the talent.

Starters: Framber, Javier, E-Rod, Hunter, Urquidy (with Blanco and France as able bodies to cover gaps and go 6 man as needed)

Lineup: 1) Altuve 2B, 2) Pena SS (unless Brantley's form allows him to hit here), 3) Yordan DH, 4) Bregman 3B, 5) Tucker RF, 6) Abreu 1B, 7) Bellinger/Brantley LF, 8) Meyers/Dubon CF, 9) Maldy/Diaz C

IMO, that's good enough to roll into the playoffs and win it all, regardless of whether we catch the Rangers or earn homefield. Like many others on here, I've spent some time recently navigating ways to track down the division lead, but if we take care of business and the team looks like this in Aug/Sept, I'm confident regardless of where we finish in the standings.
Marvin
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Looking back at the season predictions early in the thread... and we are bad at this game. About the only one we nailed were the negative predictions about LMJ, unfortunately.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
wangus12
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I predicted Abreu being ****
Deluxe
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Marvin said:

Looking back at the season predictions early in the thread... and we are bad at this game. About the only one we nailed were the negative predictions about LMJ, unfortunately.
Yep. The baseball gods have kindly given us a few dominant seasons over the last six years that were easily predictable. But the baseball gods giveth and taketh away.
Keeper of The Spirits
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CFTXAG10
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Deluxe said:

Marvin said:

Looking back at the season predictions early in the thread... and we are bad at this game. About the only one we nailed were the negative predictions about LMJ, unfortunately.
Yep. The baseball gods have kindly given us a few dominant seasons over the last six years that were easily predictable. But the baseball gods giveth and taketh away.
Might be a good thing. Humble the team and fans early in the season. Ain't gonna come easy.
MAROON
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LMJ has surgery again and might be done for his career.

Uncle Mike - might show up in August.
tjack16
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I said 98-64 record pre-season, winning the division by 7 games and beating the dodgers in the World Series

I'm adjusting that to 94-68 and making the ALCS. I think the Braves and the Rays are the teams to beat this year as long as they stay healthy.

I'd be very happy with another ALCS appearance as long as the Rangers or Yankees don't make it further than us
Eso si, Que es
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Keeper of The Spirits said:


I agree, I try my best to allow it to play out, knowing it is important to rest players and give prospects real AB's and reps. I just can't abide the personnel decisions made on Sunday. What a f/cking punt. I refused to watch that abomination of a lineup. If that game isn't important to our manager then it isn't important to me.

I just can't find value in playing an infield of Salazar, Diaz, Dubon, Kessinger, Bregman, Bielak. If injuries dictate that is our team come October, we are not contending. Why not give these guys infield reps with actual players they may have to play with? Shouldn't Abreu have reps receiving throws from Kessinger? Shouldn't Altuve get some reps with him? What is the value in him turning double plays with Dubon and Diaz?

Furthermore, giving Altuve, Peña, Maldy, Abreu all a game off the day before a day off is indefensible. Fine you want some people to have 2 games off in a row, let Diaz catch Sunday and play first base Tuesday. Then he is getting reps with Abreu on first and Maldy catching, which are possible real world scenarios. Same with Pena/Altuve, give them opposite days off.

Salazar is here for one reason, in case of emergency break glass. If Maldy is off, Diaz gets the reps. No ifs ands or buts allowed.

CFTXAG10
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Hearing there was a feisty team meeting after the game in Cleveland yesterday called by Dusty. The irony.
redline248
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CFTXAG10 said:

Hearing there was a feisty team meeting after the game in Cleveland yesterday called by Dusty. The irony.
Probably went something like "ok guys great game. I'm going to order a shipment of wine to have ready for us on Monday, who wants cab?"
FloridaAg77
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Not baseball related but I just don't care. Our boy is coming home.

W
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many posters above are making good and logical points about the rest of the season

but there is a problem: the illogical manager
RO519
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Yea, I was way off on all of my predictions thus far...
agproducer
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As suspected, that Meyers AB in the 5th yesterday was just horrible by the ump.



Mathguy64
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Mathguy64 said:

Predicted Record:95-67 - Losing Altuve for 2 months has to catch up with the record at some point.
Team MVP: Yordan
Team Cy Young:Javier - He pitches an actual no hitter not a combined one.
Rookie of the Year: Yanier

Surprise Player of the Year: Yanier
Make 2 or more Positive Predictions:
  • Framber and Javier finish top 5 CYA
  • Tucker emerges from the shift as a $300MM guy

Make 2 or more Negative Predictions:
  • It takes until August for Jose to get back to normal
  • Brown struggles

Yanier can still be ROY if Dusty would, you know, actually play him.

Tucker so far looks like he doesn't want to make $300MM.

And I got Jose struggling until August pretty close.
tjack16
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tjack16 said:

Prediction from me

98-64 record for the Astros

The mariners put together a dream run to end the season, make the wild card, and make it to the ALCS…. Only to have us crush their dreams.

Rematch against the Dodgers for the title.

WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!


Replace mariners with rangers and that would be so sweet. But I also don't think the dodgers are making the World Series anymore.
redline248
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According to Fangraphs, Yainer is up to 102 wRC+
Jake and Chas are sitting at 109 and 108, respectivley
Julks is sitting at 86.

Let's see who starts in LF next time out with a lefty on the mound
texasaggie2015
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I've been off the grid the last couple days. Not much new to report or new names that have been mentioned to me as trade targets. Haven't heard anything on Yordan either.
agproducer
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texasaggie2015 said:

I've been off the grid the last couple days. Not much new to report or new names that have been mentioned to me as trade targets. Haven't heard anything on Yordan either.
Thanks for the insight!
redline248
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redline248 said:

According to Fangraphs, Yainer is up to 102 wRC+
Jake and Chas are sitting at 109 and 108, respectivley
Julks is sitting at 86.

Let's see who starts in LF next time out with a lefty on the mound
To be fair to Julks, since Chas returned to action on May 8 these are the slash lines

Chas - .200/.273/.386, 3 HR, 5 BB, 21 K (77 PA)
Julks - .250/.292/.405, 3 HR, 5 BB, 25 K (89 PA)
Marvin
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Of the guys not injured (thinking Altuve, Brantley, LMJ, Garcia, Urquidy), I find myself most disappointed in McCormick and Tucker. I expected both to take the next step in their careers, and so far they have held serve at best. Lots of time left, though. I look forward to them getting hot and creating some protection for Alvarez.

And, yes, I did not mention Abreu. He's sort of in a class of his own, but showing signs of approaching some version of his prior self.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
tjack16
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Marvin said:

Of the guys not injured (thinking Altuve, Brantley, LMJ, Garcia, Urquidy), I find myself most disappointed in McCormick and Tucker. I expected both to take the next step in their careers, and so far they have held serve at best. Lots of time left, though. I look forward to them getting hot and creating some protection for Alvarez.

And, yes, I did not mention Abreu. He's sort of in a class of his own, but showing signs of approaching some version of his prior self.


I think McCormick has a ceiling that we've pretty much already seen. .250 type of hitter with about 20 HR and 70ish RBI would be his best IMO.

Tucker will still end up with about 30 HR this year but I have to agree this year has been a disappointment with him so far. I and many others assumed the shift ban would help him ALOT but it hasn't seemed to make a difference in his production. His average and OPS are still relatively the same or lower than previous years
Lonestar_Ag09
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not sure how or where you pull this...can you add jake into it though just for comparison
redline248
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redline248 said:

redline248 said:

According to Fangraphs, Yainer is up to 102 wRC+
Jake and Chas are sitting at 109 and 108, respectivley
Julks is sitting at 86.

Let's see who starts in LF next time out with a lefty on the mound
To be fair to Julks, since Chas returned to action on May 8 these are the slash lines

Chas - .200/.273/.386, 3 HR, 5 BB, 21 K (77 PA)
Julks - .250/.292/.405, 3 HR, 5 BB, 25 K (89 PA)
In June:

Chas - 7 games, .292/.393/.458 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K (28 PA)
Julks - 10 games, .235/.278/.441, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K (36 PA)
redline248
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Yeah, give me a few. I'm using baseball reference. If you go to game logs, you can click the game number for where you want to start and end and it calculates it over the range.
Farmer1906
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redline248 said:

redline248 said:

redline248 said:

According to Fangraphs, Yainer is up to 102 wRC+
Jake and Chas are sitting at 109 and 108, respectivley
Julks is sitting at 86.

Let's see who starts in LF next time out with a lefty on the mound
To be fair to Julks, since Chas returned to action on May 8 these are the slash lines

Chas - .200/.273/.386, 3 HR, 5 BB, 21 K (77 PA)
Julks - .250/.292/.405, 3 HR, 5 BB, 25 K (89 PA)
In June:

Chas - 7 games, .292/.393/.458 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K (28 PA)
Julks - 10 games, .235/.278/.441, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K (36 PA)


These samples are so small and you're looking at results only. I don't think this is how the team should be judging the players if they're looking to keep one for the next 5-6 years and trade the other.
texasaggie2015
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I also think we haven't put Chas in the best position to succeed. I think he would do best in a platoon facing lefties 90% of the time. There's been countless times we face a lefty and he's not in the lineup which is inexcusable.

His career splits against lefties: .293/ .366/ .539/ .905

I do agree that we know what Chas is. He's a fine player but doesn't have a high ceiling. That's why I think Jake has more value on the trade market. I think he hasn't hit his ceiling yet.. and frankly I think there's quite a bit more potential there.
Farmer1906
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redline248 said:

Yeah, give me a few. I'm using baseball reference. If you go to game logs, you can click the game number for where you want to start and end and it calculates it over the range.


Try fangraphs customer leaderboard. You can input the 3 players you want a start and end dates.
redline248
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Meyers since Chas returned on May 8: .237/.333/.461, 4 HR, 8 BB, 25 K (87 PA)
Meyers in June: .250/.300/.429, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K (30 PA)
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