Remember it's only May 31st. Tucker is just fine. He's very streaky and he's known to slump a little bit.
***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****
6,943,578 Views |
114825 Replies |
Last: 1 yr ago by texasaggie2015
Not really
By this logic we should expect from Tucker ($5mm) about the same as we'd expect from Machete ($4mm).
By this logic we should expect from Tucker ($5mm) about the same as we'd expect from Machete ($4mm).
You know the data. His BA is up but his OBA and SLG are both down over the last two years. The lack of a shift hasn't really mattered to him, in fact at one level it's actually worse. He's hit into 5 GIDP, half of his yearly totals the last two years. IMHO that's partly a luck deal but still not good.Farmer1906 said:Beau Holder said:Faustus said:
Bregman's OPS is up to .719, and his bWAR is 1.1.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml
Tuck's OPS is .786, and his bWar is .3.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml
For all the grief Bregman has received for the bat, he's having a better season than Tucker so far according to Baseball Reference. Breg's defense has been sparkling. Tucker's much less so, and the bats are getting close to one another.
Fangraphs thinks so too (Bregman 1.1 fWar, Tucker .7 fWar).
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-bregman/17678/stats?position=3B
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-tucker/18345/stats?position=OF
Maybe the org knew what it was doing in arbitration.
Tuck has been pretty disappointing for a while outside of the walkoff against the Cubs. I keep thinking the turnaround has to come soon.
His WAR so far is 0.3 and his WAA is actually negative. His dWAR is also negative. They were talking about RE24 last night and he's a tick above 8; his last two years were each north of 32. It's a sign he's not an effective contributor. Weirdly his LA is way down compared to the last several years. Like 6 degrees down on average.
All of his savant xstats are highly ranked (85-88%) but they are also all down for his from the last two years. Is he regressing? Has he been unlucky? Who knows.
His EV, HH%, Sweet Spot%, BB%, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, & xwOBA on Contact are up while K%, Whiff%, & Out of Zone Swing% are down. There is absolutely nothing to worry about with TED offensively.Mathguy64 said:You know the data. His BA is up but his OBA and SLG are both down over the last two years. The lack of a shift hasn't really mattered to him, in fact at one level it's actually worse. He's hit into 5 GIDP, half of his yearly totals the last two years. IMHO that's partly a luck deal but still not good.Farmer1906 said:Beau Holder said:Faustus said:
Bregman's OPS is up to .719, and his bWAR is 1.1.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml
Tuck's OPS is .786, and his bWar is .3.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml
For all the grief Bregman has received for the bat, he's having a better season than Tucker so far according to Baseball Reference. Breg's defense has been sparkling. Tucker's much less so, and the bats are getting close to one another.
Fangraphs thinks so too (Bregman 1.1 fWar, Tucker .7 fWar).
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-bregman/17678/stats?position=3B
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-tucker/18345/stats?position=OF
Maybe the org knew what it was doing in arbitration.
Tuck has been pretty disappointing for a while outside of the walkoff against the Cubs. I keep thinking the turnaround has to come soon.
His WAR so far is 0.3 and his WAA is actually negative. His dWAR is also negative. They were talking about RE24 last night and he's a tick above 8; his last two years were each north of 32. It's a sign he's not an effective contributor. Weirdly his LA is way down compared to the last several years. Like 6 degrees down on average.
All of his savant xstats are highly ranked (85-88%) but they are also all down for his from the last two years. Is he regressing? Has he been unlucky? Who knows.
Beau Holder said:Faustus said:
Bregman's OPS is up to .719, and his bWAR is 1.1.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml
Tuck's OPS is .786, and his bWar is .3.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml
For all the grief Bregman has received for the bat, he's having a better season than Tucker so far according to Baseball Reference. Breg's defense has been sparkling. Tucker's much less so, and the bats are getting close to one another.
Fangraphs thinks so too (Bregman 1.1 fWar, Tucker .7 fWar).
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-bregman/17678/stats?position=3B
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-tucker/18345/stats?position=OF
Maybe the org knew what it was doing in arbitration.
Tuck has been pretty disappointing for a while outside of the walkoff against the Cubs. I keep thinking the turnaround has to come soon.
Doesn't help he's been batting with zero protection and the bases unloaded from Alvarez
Assuming he's been unlucky and regresses upwards I agree. He's not had nearly the bad starts he has had but his defensive numbers are worrisome.
It looks like he's really struggled with off speed pitches. His BA, OBA, SLG wOBA and xBA, xOBA, xSLG, xwOBA are all down significantly over last year. For fastball and breaking balls it's not as bad.
It looks like he's really struggled with off speed pitches. His BA, OBA, SLG wOBA and xBA, xOBA, xSLG, xwOBA are all down significantly over last year. For fastball and breaking balls it's not as bad.
He's been bad defensively. No way around it. Sprint speed is continuing to go down too. It's either lollygagging, an injury, or a little of both.
Rangers lose.
He needs a day off and there are players available to give it to him (Chas cough cough) if only Dusty would bother to do it.
Hunter Brown day pic.twitter.com/c7ftlS6aAV
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) May 31, 2023
Remember when Diaz was Brown's catcher?
Those 2 errant throws are probably burned into Dusty's frontal cortex.
Don't like Altuve not being in the lineup.
Wabs said:
Don't like Altuve not being in the lineup.
Even Goats need a day off every now and then
The curious case of Brandon Bielak
First of all, his 4 seam fastball has never been very good. Pretty below average in terms of both vertical and horizontal movement, though in in 2020 in moved horizontally an average of 1.6 inches more than league average. I'll venture to guess that was due to sticky stuff. Last year his 4 seamer had a -1 run value, but this year it's +6. Last year he threw it 35% of the time, this year only 27.2%, and I expect it to go down even more.
In his last 5 starts he has thrown the 4 seam (from earliest to most recent) 21, 16, 23, 31, and only 12 times last night. That 31 times thrown was against the Brewers, who lit him up. 1st inning double and home run were both on the 4 seamer. One of the homers in the 7th was also on the 4 seamer. All in all that game he was hard hit 8 times, and most of them were on the 4 seam.
So what is he throwing instead? The change up. He's never thrown it more than 18% of the time in any season, and last year only 12%. This year, it's jumped up to 23.3%. Last night he threw it 37 times. That resulted in a 46% whiff rate, 0 base hits, and a .289 xwOBA. Sonny Gray's season xwOBA is .289. Clayton Kershaw's is .291. Gerrit Cole's is .313.
Is his change up even that good? So far this year it's moving an average of 1.2 vertical and 0.9 horizontal inches more than the league average. It has a run value of -6, .132 batting average, .184 slugging. The expected numbers aren't quite as good (.226 and .277) but the xwOBA is even better than last night - .244.
Ok, obviously, he can't throw a change up all the time and MLB batters will adjust. Well, his slider looks like a decent pitch in terms of movement. 5.4 and 4.8 more inches of veritcal/horizontal movement vs league average, and batters whiff 42.4% of the time. However, in a small sample of 12 batted balls vs Bielak's slider batters have hit .333 and slugged .778 with 2 homers. the xBA is only .241, so I think it can still be a good pitch for him. Season run value of +1.
His Sinker looks like it should be decent enough. 3.4 more inches of vertical movement than average, but doesn't run at all. Season run value of 0 and average launch angle of -1, but only 17% whiff rate. It's still better than his 4 seamer. Interestingly, he has only thrown the sinker 5 times all year to a single left hand batter. The batter got a hit, but the xBA was .216 with a -49 launch angle and 64 mph exit. (edit for clarification. He has thrown a sinker to 3 LH batters, but only 1 of them put it in play. Yesterday he threw it twice to a lefty and got 2 whiffs. It was probably Gallo
)
So, again, super small sample size for most of this stuff. It looks like he is starting to figure out what to throw to batters. IMO, he needs to lean on the sinker to set up the change up and slider, and dump the 4 seam.
First of all, his 4 seam fastball has never been very good. Pretty below average in terms of both vertical and horizontal movement, though in in 2020 in moved horizontally an average of 1.6 inches more than league average. I'll venture to guess that was due to sticky stuff. Last year his 4 seamer had a -1 run value, but this year it's +6. Last year he threw it 35% of the time, this year only 27.2%, and I expect it to go down even more.
In his last 5 starts he has thrown the 4 seam (from earliest to most recent) 21, 16, 23, 31, and only 12 times last night. That 31 times thrown was against the Brewers, who lit him up. 1st inning double and home run were both on the 4 seamer. One of the homers in the 7th was also on the 4 seamer. All in all that game he was hard hit 8 times, and most of them were on the 4 seam.
So what is he throwing instead? The change up. He's never thrown it more than 18% of the time in any season, and last year only 12%. This year, it's jumped up to 23.3%. Last night he threw it 37 times. That resulted in a 46% whiff rate, 0 base hits, and a .289 xwOBA. Sonny Gray's season xwOBA is .289. Clayton Kershaw's is .291. Gerrit Cole's is .313.
Is his change up even that good? So far this year it's moving an average of 1.2 vertical and 0.9 horizontal inches more than the league average. It has a run value of -6, .132 batting average, .184 slugging. The expected numbers aren't quite as good (.226 and .277) but the xwOBA is even better than last night - .244.
Ok, obviously, he can't throw a change up all the time and MLB batters will adjust. Well, his slider looks like a decent pitch in terms of movement. 5.4 and 4.8 more inches of veritcal/horizontal movement vs league average, and batters whiff 42.4% of the time. However, in a small sample of 12 batted balls vs Bielak's slider batters have hit .333 and slugged .778 with 2 homers. the xBA is only .241, so I think it can still be a good pitch for him. Season run value of +1.
His Sinker looks like it should be decent enough. 3.4 more inches of vertical movement than average, but doesn't run at all. Season run value of 0 and average launch angle of -1, but only 17% whiff rate. It's still better than his 4 seamer. Interestingly, he has only thrown the sinker 5 times all year to a single left hand batter. The batter got a hit, but the xBA was .216 with a -49 launch angle and 64 mph exit. (edit for clarification. He has thrown a sinker to 3 LH batters, but only 1 of them put it in play. Yesterday he threw it twice to a lefty and got 2 whiffs. It was probably Gallo
)So, again, super small sample size for most of this stuff. It looks like he is starting to figure out what to throw to batters. IMO, he needs to lean on the sinker to set up the change up and slider, and dump the 4 seam.
Here's hoping that our guys are plenty motivated enough to take advantage and pick up a game in the standings.
Sidenote. I don't believe Yordan's wife gets enough credit on here.
https://instagr.am/p/CjSHX6lOuX7
https://instagr.am/p/CffWrp5pi5F
https://instagr.am/p/CU-TQy0MYKN
https://instagr.am/p/CkFajJjgIeN
https://instagr.am/p/CjSHX6lOuX7
https://instagr.am/p/CffWrp5pi5F
https://instagr.am/p/CU-TQy0MYKN
https://instagr.am/p/CkFajJjgIeN
a player's salary is a huge part of evaluation and expectation in the year 2023
see Jose Abreu
or see JV with the Mets
if a team is struggling...start with the guys at the top of the payroll
see Jose Abreu
or see JV with the Mets
if a team is struggling...start with the guys at the top of the payroll
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
Sidenote. I don't believe Yordan's wife gets enough credit on here.
https://instagr.am/p/CjSHX6lOuX7
https://instagr.am/p/CffWrp5pi5F
https://instagr.am/p/CU-TQy0MYKN
https://instagr.am/p/CkFajJjgIeN
No way that fits
So you expect Maldy and Tucker to produce at nearly the same level based on their salary?
My original post about Bielak was a comparison to Urquidy, not Framber or Abreu. I'll take him over Urquidy as the 5th starter. Urquidy has a 5 plus ERA and has been consistently inconsistent himself. Just as Bielak does, he gives up too many homers. For some reason, Urquidy abandonded a pretty nice change up, to his detriment.
I think right now we have too many 6 inning startes and really only Valdez can consistently go a full 7. Brown will be a full 7 inning guy at some point, but is not there yet.
I think right now we have too many 6 inning startes and really only Valdez can consistently go a full 7. Brown will be a full 7 inning guy at some point, but is not there yet.
Can't believe Jomboy didn't break down Altuve/Peña/ump Layne. But he did repost this - Altuve>Biggio?
Tough call but 2 WS gives edge to Jose!
Tough call but 2 WS gives edge to Jose!
Mark DeRosa says that Jose Altuve is a Hall of Famer
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 30, 2023
Altuve is on “the short list” of the best second basemen ever in DeRosa’s eyes pic.twitter.com/UywGwYEh8B
I like the devil's advocate and then at the end agreeing.
Altuve may not get in if he retires tomorrow, but as long as he ages normally and plays around 5-6 years, he should be a lock.
Altuve may not get in if he retires tomorrow, but as long as he ages normally and plays around 5-6 years, he should be a lock.
Altuve is and will be the Astros GOAT until about 10 years from now when Yordan passes him.
Just my opinion.
Just my opinion.
If there are any words that should never be uttered regarding the HOF it's "should be a lock".Farmer1906 said:
I like the devil's advocate and then at the end agreeing.
Altuve may not get in if he retires tomorrow, but as long as he ages normally and plays around 5-6 years, he should be a lock.
There will be some voters that will refuse to vote him in because of, well, you know. If they will not vote for Bonds and Clemens because they think they used (ok we all know they did but there was never a positive test) those same voters will hold this against Jose. And the margin to get in is so thin to start with.
The flip side of that is that Jose is genuinely liked by the press. And that matters a lot. Maybe more than anything else.
Also the fact that basically everyone with any knowledge of the situation has said he admantantly did not partake of the banging of the Trash cans will hopefully keep writers from unfairly punishing him.
I just noticed Atlanta dropped 2 out of 3 to the A's holy **** how embarrassing.
I just noticed Atlanta dropped 2 out of 3 to the A's holy **** how embarrassing.
W said:
a player's salary is a huge part of evaluation and expectation in the year 2023
see Jose Abreu
or see JV with the Mets
if a team is struggling...start with the guys at the top of the payroll
I wasn't trying to run down Tucker so much as pump up Bregman a bit. The only bad thing I said about KT that his D was much less than sparkling.
And I'd say Bregman has had his share of grief on the thread this season about his bat and exorbitant salary as far as starting at the top of the payroll.
I'm gonna add another piece to the Bielak puzzle.
High leverage situation: 7 batters faced (2.1 innings) 0 hits, 1 BB, 4 K, .100 wOBA, 1.14 xFIP
RISP: 38 batters faced (10.2 innings) 6 hits (.171 average), 3 BB, 12 K, .235 wOBA, 3.23 xFIP
buuuut, 3rd time through order:
.318 average, .682 slug, .452 wOBA, 6.92 xFIP
Reminds me of that Brewers game when he pitched in the 7th inning while trailing 0-2.
High leverage situation: 7 batters faced (2.1 innings) 0 hits, 1 BB, 4 K, .100 wOBA, 1.14 xFIP
RISP: 38 batters faced (10.2 innings) 6 hits (.171 average), 3 BB, 12 K, .235 wOBA, 3.23 xFIP
buuuut, 3rd time through order:
.318 average, .682 slug, .452 wOBA, 6.92 xFIP
Reminds me of that Brewers game when he pitched in the 7th inning while trailing 0-2.
Ag4life80 said:
My original post about Bielak was a comparison to Urquidy, not Framber or Abreu. I'll take him over Urquidy as the 5th starter. Urquidy has a 5 plus ERA and has been consistently inconsistent himself. Just as Bielak does, he gives up too many homers. For some reason, Urquidy abandonded a pretty nice change up, to his detriment.
I think right now we have too many 6 inning startes and really only Valdez can consistently go a full 7. Brown will be a full 7 inning guy at some point, but is not there yet.
Why are you only looking at this year? And if you're only looking at this year, why aren't you digging into the numbers?
Each season before this year, his ERA has been under 4. You bring up his 5 ERA this season. His has given up 13 runs in 6 games this season. 6 of those came in one game against TB.
Urquidy is a dog. Dude isn't scared of ***** He's had huge post season performances.
He's a damn fine 4/5 and I'll take him over Bielak every damn day of the week as things currently stand.
Also - having 6 inning starters is a fantastic thing! That what I want from every starter. That's what the Astros had last year and had one of the least used bullpens last season. 7+ is luxury.
Big Al 1992 said:
Altuve>Biggio?
Tough call but 2 WS gives edge to Jose!
I grew up idolizing Biggio
It's not a tough call.
Altuve may not have the counting stats Bidge has but it's a different game nowadays.
No disrespect to Yordan, but Bagwell was every bit the hitter he is, and played GG first base, and ran well and barely missed a game through age 35.Silent For Too Long said:
Altuve is and will be the Astros GOAT until about 10 years from now when Yordan passes him.
Just my opinion.
Obviously its no contest for who you want at bat with the game on the line, but as far as body of work I think Yordan is probably actually 27-28 already and I doubt he plays anywhere near the number of career games Bagwell did.
Who knows who will end up staying with the team long-term so on, but TBH I see Tucker having the better career numbers and I don't think Yordan will end up in the Astro top three.
Win tonight and we are 2 games out. Seems good all things considered.
Only thing Biggio has over Altuve is longevity.
Jose is the best Astro
Jose is the best Astro
Featured Stories
See All
Texas A&M adds former Texas TE Amari Niblack via transfer portal
by Cade Draughon
28:24
11h ago
4.0k
January's second Junior Day brings new talent to College Station
by Jason Howell
37:02
12h ago
2.9k
18:55
14h ago
2.6k
MarcAg
Bob Morton weighs in on the ND National Championship game (Old TexAggers remember)
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
4