I'll take Bielak over Urquidy now that he's developed a swing and miss changeup. He repeats the same motion every pitch really well, so that change is very effective. Urquidy's short arm throwing motion will continually give him arm issues.
***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****
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Last: 1 yr ago by texasaggie2015
Beilak is a ticking time bomb. It's only a matter of time before the realistic numbers balance out with the expected numbers.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
Correct. What Bielak is doing is not sustainable.Ag_07 said:
Beilak is a ticking time bomb. It's only a matter of time before the realistic numbers balance out with the expected numbers.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
Been saying this for a while now, but even with Urquidy's return, I think we need to go get another SP. Doesn't need to be an ace that will break the bank. But someone that can be a strong 3/4 and/or possibly provide depth in long relief.
What about a rental on Alex Cobb? He's 35 but could be a good 3 or 4 to get us to October.
Welcome back. I got the same.Mr.Bond said:Marvin said:Mr.Bond said:
Well....... I'm back after a 2 week ban. Who had the Oklahoma Rangers with a 132 run differential on May 31? Wtf
Welcome back!
Astros have had a great two weeks, so can we count on you in crunch time to do what's necessary?
All I have to do is mention that a slumping player likes to gurgle a certain appendage found on males and BOOM. Ban Hammer
The moderation standards are strange.
What I don't get is, why even go the challenge route in the first place? If the computers know where the pitches are, just let it go with that from the start and don't slow down the game for that BS. The ump can be back there for all the other stuff, catcher interference, tips, HBP, plays at the plate, etc.Prosperdick said:
One part of the broadcast that I liked last night was when they spoke about the system they're using in AAA right now where the pitcher, catcher, and hitter all can challenge a pitch.
I assume you have around 3 challenges and lose them if you're wrong but the best part is that the pitch will be showed on the jumbotron so the entire stadium can see how awful a pitch call the ump made. We need them to feel that shame so hopefully they will "try" to do better.
It's obviously not as good as robo-umps but it's at least a start and can't get here soon enough, especially the way we've been screwed all year.
I agree that he can't keep this up the way he's doing it…but that doesn't mean he can't learn how to be more effective and become a legit MLB starter.texasaggie2015 said:Correct. What Bielak is doing is not sustainable.Ag_07 said:
Beilak is a ticking time bomb. It's only a matter of time before the realistic numbers balance out with the expected numbers.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
When Framber first came up all of the stats said he wasn't going to be able to keep it up, but I think there's something to be said for guys that find a way to get it done. Obviously he had great stuff and improved his command among other things… and I don't think Bielak is the next Framber, but I do think he's going to end up being a productive back end of the rotation guy.
Ag_07 said:
Beilak is a ticking time bomb. It's only a matter of time before the realistic numbers balance out with the expected numbers.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
We thought the same thing about Abreu last year
tjack16 said:Ag_07 said:
Beilak is a ticking time bomb. It's only a matter of time before the realistic numbers balance out with the expected numbers.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
We thought the same thing about Abreu last year
I didn't.
This is a very different situation.
Bregman's OPS is up to .719, and his bWAR is 1.1.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml
Tuck's OPS is .786, and his bWar is .3.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml
For all the grief Bregman has received for the bat, he's having a better season than Tucker so far according to Baseball Reference. Breg's defense has been sparkling. Tucker's much less so, and the bats are getting close to one another.
Fangraphs thinks so too (Bregman 1.1 fWar, Tucker .7 fWar).
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-bregman/17678/stats?position=3B
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-tucker/18345/stats?position=OF
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml
Tuck's OPS is .786, and his bWar is .3.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml
For all the grief Bregman has received for the bat, he's having a better season than Tucker so far according to Baseball Reference. Breg's defense has been sparkling. Tucker's much less so, and the bats are getting close to one another.
Fangraphs thinks so too (Bregman 1.1 fWar, Tucker .7 fWar).
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-bregman/17678/stats?position=3B
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-tucker/18345/stats?position=OF
tjack16 said:Ag_07 said:
Beilak is a ticking time bomb. It's only a matter of time before the realistic numbers balance out with the expected numbers.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
We thought the same thing about Abreu last year
Not all of us. Abreu has nasty nasty stuff that absolutely plays. It wasn't hard to see that his emergence wasn't a fluke. He had the stuff and he had the confidence and attitude. It just all needed to come together and it did. It clicked for him
Not really the case with Bielak. He's producing well but I feel like he's due for a slide back down to reality.
Here is his expected wOBA by game for 2023 matched up with his pitch% by game.Bregxit said:Farmer1906 said:tjack16 said:Ag_07 said:
Beilak is a ticking time bomb. It's only a matter of time before the realistic numbers balance out with the expected numbers.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
We thought the same thing about Abreu last year
I didn't.
This is a very different situation.
Is there any trend change since Bielak started using his changeup more or not enough data yet? Genuine question.
What I see is that his fastball (sinker) is not good. The % drops over the last 3 starts and the expected #s look a little better. The change-up itself may not be anything special, but maybe it helps out the breaking stuff. The last 2 games look like his breaking stuff is really effective after being completely **** in his games 2 and 3 of the season. The sample is still small here.
I have trying to dabble a little more into the pitch modeling data. When I compare Bielak to the rest of the pitchers on the staff, he got the worst Stuff+ on the team at 82 (100 being league avg) and near the worst when it comes to location too. Guys like Framber, Javier, & Abreu can get alow with so-so location because if their stuff. Bielak cannot.
Farmer1906 said:tjack16 said:Ag_07 said:
Beilak is a ticking time bomb. It's only a matter of time before the realistic numbers balance out with the expected numbers.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
We thought the same thing about Abreu last year
I didn't.
This is a very different situation.
You might not have, but many posters on here didn't trust Abreu until really the ALCS.
I'm looking at our track record of finding low prospects that turn into producers and choosing to give Bielak the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. He has shown flashes that he could be a good 3/4 type of starter
So what are some potential adds via trade? Dylan Cease? Alex Cobb? Who else?
To give some perspective on what 82 Stuff+ means.Farmer1906 said:Here is his expected wOBA by game for 2023 matched up with his pitch% by game.Bregxit said:Farmer1906 said:tjack16 said:Ag_07 said:
Beilak is a ticking time bomb. It's only a matter of time before the realistic numbers balance out with the expected numbers.
I don't trust that he can keep this up. Urquidy isn't gonna set the league in fire but he's consistent and you typically know what you're gonna get every start. Not su much with Bielak.
We thought the same thing about Abreu last year
I didn't.
This is a very different situation.
Is there any trend change since Bielak started using his changeup more or not enough data yet? Genuine question.
What I see is that his fastball (sinker) is not good. The % drops over the last 3 starts and the expected #s look a little better. The change-up itself may not be anything special, but maybe it helps out the breaking stuff. The last 2 games look like his breaking stuff is really effective after being completely **** in his games 2 and 3 of the season. The sample is still small here.
I have trying to dabble a little more into the pitch modeling data. When I compare Bielak to the rest of the pitchers on the staff, he got the worst Stuff+ on the team at 82 (100 being league avg) and near the worst when it comes to location too. Guys like Framber, Javier, & Abreu can get alow with so-so location because if their stuff. Bielak cannot.
82 is currently tied for 24th lowest in the bigs (min 20 IP) out of 320 pitchers.
deGrom is 1, Pressly is 2, Abreu is 7.
Find anyone on the White Sox, Royals, As, Rockies, or Nats with <2 years of control.Wabs said:
So what are some potential adds via trade? Dylan Cease? Alex Cobb? Who else?
Haven't had time to look today, but yesterday I noticed he throws 2 types of fastball, and the sinker I thought had a better run value than the 4 seam. He also has almost dumped his curve completely while increasing the chance up.
Probably the biggest thing that helps him is he has like 5 pitches he can throw at any point and 3 of them look the same.
Probably the biggest thing that helps him is he has like 5 pitches he can throw at any point and 3 of them look the same.
Mike Trout just murdered a baseball that was begging to be put out of its misery. pic.twitter.com/3qzaDrASEr
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) May 31, 2023
476 ft...
Its still 1st inning there so I full expect some form of "Trout absolutely destroys ball for 2 run HR as Angels fall 6-2 to the White Sox"
Spencer Arrighetti in the month of May:
— Astros Future (@AstrosFuture) May 31, 2023
0.67 ERA | 27.0 IP | 12 H | 2 ER | 37 K
He also held opponents to just a .136 BAA during his five outings this month. #Astros pic.twitter.com/2KasjSb7hC
seems good. Maybe get him up to the big league team soon
Harry Dunne said:Welcome back. I got the same.Mr.Bond said:Marvin said:Mr.Bond said:
Well....... I'm back after a 2 week ban. Who had the Oklahoma Rangers with a 132 run differential on May 31? Wtf
Welcome back!
Astros have had a great two weeks, so can we count on you in crunch time to do what's necessary?
All I have to do is mention that a slumping player likes to gurgle a certain appendage found on males and BOOM. Ban Hammer
The moderation standards are strange.
The standards are wildly inconsistent for sure.
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.
MAGA
MAGA
Giolito is intriguing to me in this scenario. Upper tier spin guy. Free agent after this season and still just 28 years old. Stros have a track record of finding guys in similar scenarios and taking them to new heights.Farmer1906 said:Find anyone on the White Sox, Royals, As, Rockies, or Nats with <2 years of control.Wabs said:
So what are some potential adds via trade? Dylan Cease? Alex Cobb? Who else?
Just don't look at his April #s.
speaking of Mike Trout...
his slash lines are slowing down from their 2017-2019 peak.
in fact he's having his lowest SLG and OPS season since his rookie year
doesn't walk as much either
his slash lines are slowing down from their 2017-2019 peak.
in fact he's having his lowest SLG and OPS season since his rookie year
doesn't walk as much either
It was pretty apparent that Bryan Abreu had filthy stuff and if he figured things out he would be dominant. I don't see that in Bielak necessarily. I think his ceiling is a #4 starter.. which is fine, but I don't see the similarity between him and Abreu last year.
the Space Cowboys game I went to with robot umpire (not the challenge but full robot) was the most relaxing baseball game I've ever watched! You literally can't get mad at anyone but your players which is refreshing!Prosperdick said:One part of the broadcast that I liked last night was when they spoke about the system they're using in AAA right now where the pitcher, catcher, and hitter all can challenge a pitch.Harry Dunne said:
Also stuck up for the Abreu homer celebration. Said that he understands that some people took it the wrong way but that you've got to remember how much pressure he was under and what a release that was for him and at the end of the day we are playing a game and there's nothing wrong with showing the child-like Joy. I like that.
Said that the way the amp handled Peña didn't look good from up above, but said he was waiting to hear the explanation and hoped he was just trying to lean in to hear Peña better and that the optics were worse than the reality. I didn't buy it, I think he's just giving the ump an easy out and trying not to embarrass him. Which is probably the smart play.
I would've said it was another big ego ump trying to make himself the star of the show and just another reason why we can't get robots out there soon enough. And that's why it's good that I'm not the GM.
I assume you have around 3 challenges and lose them if you're wrong but the best part is that the pitch will be showed on the jumbotron so the entire stadium can see how awful a pitch call the ump made. We need them to feel that shame so hopefully they will "try" to do better.
It's obviously not as good as robo-umps but it's at least a start and can't get here soon enough, especially the way we've been screwed all year.
Faustus said:
Bregman's OPS is up to .719, and his bWAR is 1.1.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml
Tuck's OPS is .786, and his bWar is .3.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml
For all the grief Bregman has received for the bat, he's having a better season than Tucker so far according to Baseball Reference. Breg's defense has been sparkling. Tucker's much less so, and the bats are getting close to one another.
Fangraphs thinks so too (Bregman 1.1 fWar, Tucker .7 fWar).
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-bregman/17678/stats?position=3B
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-tucker/18345/stats?position=OF
Maybe the org knew what it was doing in arbitration.
Tuck has been pretty disappointing for a while outside of the walkoff against the Cubs. I keep thinking the turnaround has to come soon.
Detroit traded for Marisnick yesterday and he got the start for the Tigers today (2-3 w an RBI, Tigers currently up 3-1 on Arlington).
Beau Holder said:Faustus said:
Bregman's OPS is up to .719, and his bWAR is 1.1.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml
Tuck's OPS is .786, and his bWar is .3.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml
For all the grief Bregman has received for the bat, he's having a better season than Tucker so far according to Baseball Reference. Breg's defense has been sparkling. Tucker's much less so, and the bats are getting close to one another.
Fangraphs thinks so too (Bregman 1.1 fWar, Tucker .7 fWar).
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-bregman/17678/stats?position=3B
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-tucker/18345/stats?position=OF
Maybe the org knew what it was doing in arbitration.
Tuck has been pretty disappointing for a while outside of the walkoff against the Cubs. I keep thinking the turnaround has to come soon.
Let the magic work dude
also when discussing Bregman vs. Tucker
Bregman ----> $30 MM
Tucker -------> $5 MM
different expectations
Bregman ----> $30 MM
Tucker -------> $5 MM
different expectations
Tucker is coming off an All-star and gold glove season... my expectation for him is pretty damn highW said:
also when discussing Bregman vs. Tucker
Bregman ----> $30 MM
Tucker -------> $5 MM
different expectations
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