So does Dusty have the balls to bench Abreu and start Brantley at 1st?
***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****
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Last: 1 yr ago by texasaggie2015
Man, the WBC wreaked havoc on the Astros this year, no way you convince me putting three of our SPs in high leverage situation in what would have been spring training has not completely derailed the season, and that doesn't even account for Altuve
I don't remember who, but someone said "Is Alex Bregman just a bad hitter that gets hot" or something along those lines. Another that he said he's a "terrible investment"
For those who are rewriting the history of Alex Bregman here are some #s. wRC+ is probably the easiest and simplest snapshot of a player's offense. Here is how Fangraphs gives context to the #s.
Bregman is a career 137 wRC+. He's not quite great, but well above average. Here is Alex Bregman's Career by Month. If he's just a bad hitter who gets really hot occasionally, you should see most points below 100 with some wild spikes.
You don't see it, do you? You see a guy who's Above Avg to Excellent for 2/3 of the time. He's only had three awful "months" in his entire career. His first month ever (only 24 PA), this current month (only 29 PA), and June of 2021 when he was injured.
This doesn't take into account the postseason where he's been decent with some clutch moments.
I do all this to 1. Show that Bregman is pretty dang good. 2. Show that we may want to relax on all these hot takes and revisionist history.
For those who are rewriting the history of Alex Bregman here are some #s. wRC+ is probably the easiest and simplest snapshot of a player's offense. Here is how Fangraphs gives context to the #s.
Bregman is a career 137 wRC+. He's not quite great, but well above average. Here is Alex Bregman's Career by Month. If he's just a bad hitter who gets really hot occasionally, you should see most points below 100 with some wild spikes.
You don't see it, do you? You see a guy who's Above Avg to Excellent for 2/3 of the time. He's only had three awful "months" in his entire career. His first month ever (only 24 PA), this current month (only 29 PA), and June of 2021 when he was injured.
This doesn't take into account the postseason where he's been decent with some clutch moments.
I do all this to 1. Show that Bregman is pretty dang good. 2. Show that we may want to relax on all these hot takes and revisionist history.
Bag said:
Man, the WBC wreaked havoc on the Astros this year, no way you convince me putting three of our SPs in high leverage situation in what would have been spring training has not completely derailed the season, and that doesn't even account for Altuve
This team just lost games to a fellow sub-.500 squad in which it got 0 and 2 ER from J.P. France and Brandon Bielak. SP is not the problem. The problem is the lineup and bad bullpen management by a bad manager.
Shohei gave max effort for Japan and is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. The WBC also is not the problem.
I am usually not one of those people that gets on the bash Dusty bandwagon but he is really making me wonder lately. Why is he starting hensley? Besides his HR last night the dude has been a sinkhole. Same with maldy. I think the transition from Maldy to Diaz will happen hopefully by the ASB and if it doesn't then I will fully question why Dusty refuses to play Diaz more.
Dusty needs to stop getting cute with the lineup and BP just play the best players.
Dusty needs to stop getting cute with the lineup and BP just play the best players.
Beau Holder said:Bag said:
Man, the WBC wreaked havoc on the Astros this year, no way you convince me putting three of our SPs in high leverage situation in what would have been spring training has not completely derailed the season, and that doesn't even account for Altuve
This team just lost games to a fellow sub-.500 squad in which it got 0 and 2 ER from J.P. France and Brandon Bielak. SP is not the problem. The problem is the lineup and bad bullpen management by a bad manager.
Shohei gave max effort for Japan and is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. The WBC also is not the problem.
Understood, your position is the WBC had zero negative effects on the Astros in 2023.
Noted
It's literally impossible to argue with someone that doesn't believe that losing Garcia for a year, urquidi for a month and altuve for two months doesn't seriously impact the Astros ability to function as a fully operational death star
Expect Tucker to get a day off here soon. Dusty said last night in an interview that he was happy Chas was back because now he could give Tucker a day off (Chas in right field).
Is it your position that Spring Training uniquely affected Rhys Hoskins and Gavin Lux?
Without having some kind of injury and performance baseline to compare to, it's hard to really know.Bag said:Beau Holder said:Bag said:
Man, the WBC wreaked havoc on the Astros this year, no way you convince me putting three of our SPs in high leverage situation in what would have been spring training has not completely derailed the season, and that doesn't even account for Altuve
This team just lost games to a fellow sub-.500 squad in which it got 0 and 2 ER from J.P. France and Brandon Bielak. SP is not the problem. The problem is the lineup and bad bullpen management by a bad manager.
Shohei gave max effort for Japan and is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. The WBC also is not the problem.
Understood, your position is the WBC had zero negative effects on the Astros in 2023.
Noted
If a specific injury happens during the WBC, then that is easy to point to, but also who's to say something would have happened in ST. We saw freak injuries there. No WBC means no Altuve hand break, but maybe Abreu blows his ACL fielding a ground ball running off the mound. Who the hell knows?
The argument seems to be that Garcia and Urquidy are uniquely weak and thus their injuries are due to a short tournament numerous other pitchers participated in without issue, not any of the thousand other potential reasons.
Farmer1906 said:Without having some kind of injury and performance baseline to compare to, it's hard to really know.Bag said:Beau Holder said:Bag said:
Man, the WBC wreaked havoc on the Astros this year, no way you convince me putting three of our SPs in high leverage situation in what would have been spring training has not completely derailed the season, and that doesn't even account for Altuve
This team just lost games to a fellow sub-.500 squad in which it got 0 and 2 ER from J.P. France and Brandon Bielak. SP is not the problem. The problem is the lineup and bad bullpen management by a bad manager.
Shohei gave max effort for Japan and is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. The WBC also is not the problem.
Understood, your position is the WBC had zero negative effects on the Astros in 2023.
Noted
If a specific injury happens during the WBC, then that is easy to point to, but also who's to say something would have happened in ST. We saw freak injuries there. No WBC means no Altuve hand break, but maybe Abreu blows his ACL fielding a ground ball running off the mound. Who the hell knows?
Garcia and Urquidi were not freak injuries they were simply a matter of trying to do too much too soon.
Beau Holder said:
The argument seems to be that Garcia and Urquidy are uniquely weak and thus their injuries are due to a short tournament numerous other pitchers participated in without issue, not any of the thousand other potential reasons.
Sez the guy that doesn't think losing them is any big deal
Please quote where I said it's "not a big deal," I'm happy to wait. If you have to use a straw man, your point is bad.
What I said was thus far SP is not the issue in why this team sucks. Garcia's replacement just gave you 0 ER in his one start and Urquidy's replacement's ERA is actually a run lower than his own right now (very small sample size though, obviously). That might change but they certainly aren't why we have lost these games.
What I said was thus far SP is not the issue in why this team sucks. Garcia's replacement just gave you 0 ER in his one start and Urquidy's replacement's ERA is actually a run lower than his own right now (very small sample size though, obviously). That might change but they certainly aren't why we have lost these games.
Beau Holder said:
Is it your position that Spring Training uniquely affected Rhys Hoskins and Gavin Lux?
Nice deflection
You have no way of knowing that.Bag said:Farmer1906 said:Without having some kind of injury and performance baseline to compare to, it's hard to really know.Bag said:Beau Holder said:Bag said:
Man, the WBC wreaked havoc on the Astros this year, no way you convince me putting three of our SPs in high leverage situation in what would have been spring training has not completely derailed the season, and that doesn't even account for Altuve
This team just lost games to a fellow sub-.500 squad in which it got 0 and 2 ER from J.P. France and Brandon Bielak. SP is not the problem. The problem is the lineup and bad bullpen management by a bad manager.
Shohei gave max effort for Japan and is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. The WBC also is not the problem.
Understood, your position is the WBC had zero negative effects on the Astros in 2023.
Noted
If a specific injury happens during the WBC, then that is easy to point to, but also who's to say something would have happened in ST. We saw freak injuries there. No WBC means no Altuve hand break, but maybe Abreu blows his ACL fielding a ground ball running off the mound. Who the hell knows?
Garcia and Urquidi were not freak injuries they were simply a matter of trying to do too much too soon.
That's quite an assumption you're making.
Arm injuries happen at all times throughout the season.
Who's to say these same injuries wouldn't happen later on after the wear and tear of a season of pitching?
It's nearly impossible for anyone to say that them pitching in the WBC is why they were injured. Much less a random guy on the internet without any specific knowledge about either injury.
Arm injuries happen at all times throughout the season.
Who's to say these same injuries wouldn't happen later on after the wear and tear of a season of pitching?
It's nearly impossible for anyone to say that them pitching in the WBC is why they were injured. Much less a random guy on the internet without any specific knowledge about either injury.
He thinks he does, which is why pointing out Spring Training injuries is a "deflection."
There is absolutely no way any of us can know thatBag said:Farmer1906 said:Without having some kind of injury and performance baseline to compare to, it's hard to really know.Bag said:Beau Holder said:Bag said:
Man, the WBC wreaked havoc on the Astros this year, no way you convince me putting three of our SPs in high leverage situation in what would have been spring training has not completely derailed the season, and that doesn't even account for Altuve
This team just lost games to a fellow sub-.500 squad in which it got 0 and 2 ER from J.P. France and Brandon Bielak. SP is not the problem. The problem is the lineup and bad bullpen management by a bad manager.
Shohei gave max effort for Japan and is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. The WBC also is not the problem.
Understood, your position is the WBC had zero negative effects on the Astros in 2023.
Noted
If a specific injury happens during the WBC, then that is easy to point to, but also who's to say something would have happened in ST. We saw freak injuries there. No WBC means no Altuve hand break, but maybe Abreu blows his ACL fielding a ground ball running off the mound. Who the hell knows?
Garcia and Urquidi were not freak injuries they were simply a matter of trying to do too much too soon.
I am not even saying it didn't. I am just saying we don't know. I am not going to put in the work in to figure it out right now. Some nerd at Fangraphs probably should. Would be an interesting article.
Hell JV didn't pitch in the WBC and he got injured preseason.
It can happen at any time for any reason.
It can happen at any time for any reason.
Everyone PLEASE
I would actually be willing to bet that Garcia's injury has more to do with a HUGE uptick in innings pitched over the last couple years.
And Urquidy has had shoulder issues before. This isn't necessarily a new thing.
Did the WBC help? Likely not, but there's no way to say for sure they wouldn't have happened if they didn't participate.
And Urquidy has had shoulder issues before. This isn't necessarily a new thing.
Did the WBC help? Likely not, but there's no way to say for sure they wouldn't have happened if they didn't participate.
You gotta love it. Every year we get to a point where I/we start questioning the dynasty. Then they go on a hot streak and starting swinging their championship pedigree dong all over the league. I have no doubt the tide is about to turn.
He is indeed pretty darn good, I just think everyone thought that he was going to be playing like the 2018 and 2019 season, jacking 30+ hr's a year and driving in 100+.Farmer1906 said:
I don't remember who, but someone said "Is Alex Bregman just a bad hitter that gets hot" or something along those lines. Another that he said he's a "terrible investment"
For those who are rewriting the history of Alex Bregman here are some #s. wRC+ is probably the easiest and simplest snapshot of a player's offense. Here is how Fangraphs gives context to the #s.
Bregman is a career 137 wRC+. He's not quite great, but well above average. Here is Alex Bregman's Career by Month. If he's just a bad hitter who gets really hot occasionally, you should see most points below 100 with some wild spikes.
You don't see it, do you? You see a guy who's Above Avg to Excellent for 2/3 of the time. He's only had three awful "months" in his entire career. His first month ever (only 24 PA), this current month (only 29 PA), and June of 2021 when he was injured.
This doesn't take into account the postseason where he's been decent with some clutch moments.
I do all this to 1. Show that Bregman is pretty dang good. 2. Show that we may want to relax on all these hot takes and revisionist history.
I think he's probably more of a 25 hr a year guy, 90 rbi and 260 average.
I think the change in ball more greatly impacted him than anyone else in baseball. In '18 and '19 he hit 33 and 45 HRs. He had 23 "doubters" each season or home runs that would have only been home runs in 1-7 parks. When you mess with the ball and you lose a couple of feet then a big chunk of those 23 HRs become pop outs.
To be honest, if they're going to try to increase runs and make things more exciting, juicing the baseball is the best way to go. I'm really not liking the "hurry up and pitch so you're stressed" rule even if it is cutting a good amount of time off of the game.Farmer1906 said:
I think the change in ball more greatly impacted him than anyone else in baseball. In '18 and '19 he hit 33 and 45 HRs. He had 23 "doubters" each season or home runs that would have only been home runs in 1-7 parks. When you mess with the ball and you lose a couple of feet then a big chunk of those 23 HRs become pop outs.
this is trueDies Irae said:Farmer1906 said:
I think he's probably more of a 25 hr a year guy, 90 rbi and 260 average.
however he is making $30 MM this season....and the expectations are greater for the highest paid player on the team
Pay is more about timing. Did he not have great expectations last season because he made 11 M and not 28.5 M?W said:this is trueDies Irae said:
I think he's probably more of a 25 hr a year guy, 90 rbi and 260 average.
however he is making $30 MM this season....and the expectations are greater for the highest paid player on the team
I'm not going to be an analytics snob and tell you those stats are trash, because they are part of the story, but you're going to like him a lot better and be a smarter judge of talent if you let go of the "big 3" of BA, HR & RBI and consider them as just the small parts of the big picture that they are.Dies Irae said:
He is indeed pretty darn good, I just think everyone thought that he was going to be playing like the 2018 and 2019 season, jacking 30+ hr's a year and driving in 100+.
I think he's probably more of a 25 hr a year guy, 90 rbi and 260 average.
Yea, Dusty shows the young guys where to get *****es in every city. I'm sure that's appealing to them. His actual game/roster management sucks though.texasaggie2015 said:You know what's funny about the Dusty thing is the players actually LOVE him. I guess you don't hang around this long if otherwise. You would think some guys would be frustrated with playing time, etc. But from what I've been told, even Yanier Diaz is growing really close to Dusty... and this is a kid who has butted heads with tons of coaches and managers through the years.AustinCountyAg said:
as much as everyone wants to bash Dusty (and I think he sucks as well and should've rode off into the sunset) he isn't the reason why the team is slumping. The players are the ones who deserve the hate right now. They have to step it up.
Honestly, we need a good bench clearing brawl to get there piss going. They look like beat cats right now. I see zero energy out of them.
As much as we complain about his lineup every day (and often rightfully so), I do think there's a lot that goes on behind the scenes that we don't know about.
I believe Alex was 2 for 30 in the three series before this one. During that time he had one homer and I'm not sure how many walks. That needs to improve, but we don't win the title last year without Bregs, and I seem to recall him starting even slower last year. Everyone slumps during the regular season, and I'm sure he puts in as much work as everyone else. Just need something to click eventually like last year after his son was born.
We need a series against the A's bad. Or a matchup against a top 3 team to break the slump.
In defense of Bregs I will say that Altuve slumping during the ENTIRE playoffs, minus the WS, EVERYONE was ready to move him to 8th above Maldy but Dusty just kept him at the leadoff spot knowing he'd break out of it.
I can assure you it's more than that.
The question I have is why, all of a sudden, is Bregman awful vs LHP?
Career vs 2023:
.293/.386/.517 vs .154/.250/.205
146 wRC+ vs 32
.296 BABIP vs .158
Career vs 2023:
.293/.386/.517 vs .154/.250/.205
146 wRC+ vs 32
.296 BABIP vs .158
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