W said:

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Bregman's OPS the last 3 months of baseball:

August 2022 ---> 1.133 red hot

September 2022 ---> .692

April 2023 ------------> .697

he's not making it easy for the front office

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.948 in the postseason (58 PA)

texasaggie2015 said:

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Abreu is really close to snapping out of it. They know what the issue is, it's just going to take time to correct.

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https://images.app.goo.gl/thhk9vyf29yRwFjV6

Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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Bregman's OPS the last 3 months of baseball:

August 2022 ---> 1.133 red hot

September 2022 ---> .692

April 2023 ------------> .697

he's not making it easy for the front office

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.948 in the postseason (58 PA)

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From the start of 2022 thru 2023 (no postseason) he has a 130 wRC+. His HH% is 37.3% and his barrel rate is 7.1%. This aligns with his career #s. His wRC+ is down somewhat (138 vs 130), but his BABIP is down so he could see some positive regression.

Look at some of the deals given out to high-level 3rd basemen:
Machado - 11/350M signed at age 30
Devers - 10/313.5M, age 26
Arenado - 8/260M, age 27
Rendon - 7/245M, age 29
Riley - 10/212, age 25 (bought out years of control)

Bregman is not far from these guys. He'll be 31 when he hits FA. Why won't he be able to get 10/250?

Hope you are right..... Abreu and Breggy have both been disappointing so far. If they can get it going, the Astros should be at least solid until Altuve, Brantley and Chaz get healthy.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Abreu is really close to snapping out of it. They know what the issue is, it's just going to take time to correct.

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Yes, they shared some great quotes in Rome's article.

https://theathletic.com/4475700/2023/05/01/jose-abreus-career-worst-april/

Quote:

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"Nobody works harder than him. It's crazy," Astros hitting coach Alex Cintrn said. "Every day, he watches a lot of videos about his swings trying to find something to click."

"Other people would have been asking for off days, asking for a mental break," Cintrn continued. "He wants to play every day and says 'I'll make adjustments in the game.'"

"The swing right now is not where I want it to be and I admit that," Abreu said Sunday through an interpreter. "It's not where most of us want it to be, but it's just a process of continuing working hard and continuing to work the physical aspect of it. It's just a process and I need to continue trusting in it and working."

"I think we're going to get something done pretty quick," Cintrn said. "There's still some details we need to fix with his mechanics, obviously. There's a lot of things we need to start fixing. Hopefully we can do it soon."

"Right now, I just need to try to see the ball, see the ball better," Abreu said. "If I can see the ball, things will change."

Abreu said his problems are not mechanical. Cintrn disagreed. The two men are studying Abreu's swings over his final four seasons with the White Sox and comparing them to some he took this April.
Cintrn acknowledged Abreu is not recognizing pitches well, but also sees a problem with his hands and head. Abreu's head is going back in his swing and his hands are going down, Cintrn said, causing Abreu to use his whole body to get to the baseball instead of his hands.


"He's going too far back and he has to go around the ball," Cintrn said. "When you have to go around the ball, the (swing) gets long and the exit (velocity) is going to be bad. He's chasing pitches because his body turns and head turns. He's not recognizing pitches. But it's about mechanics. It's nothing about him. When that fixes and that clicks, it's game over."

"I got to tell you, when he fixes that small mechanic thing with his hands, it's going to be game over and we're going to be laughing," Cintrn said.

"Hopefully when the calendar changes to May, that's when he starts hitting and we see the Abreu that we all know."

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Those mechanical issues can be so tough to fix in the middle of the season. But he's very, very close. Very close.

Missed that one from Chandler. Thanks for sharing

His '23 hard hit, barrels and exit velocity percentiles are all under 40th. He needs to turn it on.

scrimp said:

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Hope you are right..... Abreu and Breggy have both been disappointing so far. If they can get it going, the Astros should be at least solid until Altuve, Brantley and Chaz get healthy.

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Breggy is a victim of a really really crappy first 9 games.

Since April 9th

.257 BA
.396 OBP
.432 SLG
.828 OPS
17 BB
7 SO

Agreed--he's warming up. Even with that sample you pulled, he's a bit under his career averages, but I'd expect a hot streak relatively soon to get him closer to the averages.

redline248 said:

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His '23 hard hit, barrels and exit velocity percentiles are all under 40th. He needs to turn it on.

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That is kind of just who Bregman is.

He has been 42% or lower in HH% every season but 2017.

Career EV is 88.8.
2023 EV is 88.2. Down, but just slightly.

Bregman overachieves his quality of contact because he's a dead pull hitter who abuses the Crawford Boxes He has 158 career HRs. He would have 188 if he played every game at MMP and only 87 if every game was in Kansas City. That and his elite eye and ability to draw walks.

Guess I'm in the market for tickets tonight if the roof is gonna be open

Red Five said:

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RED AG 98 said:

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Buck Compton said:

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RED AG 98 said:

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Ricky Henderson had like 25 years of 70+ steals. And I think 3 over 160. Completely unfathomable in the context of today's game.

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I want to see Rickey run with bigger bases and being limited to only two pickoffs. He's the most prolific base stealer and run scorer in history (and also hit almost 300 HRs).

But all of this is wrong... he never had anything close to 160 steals. The 130 in 1982 was his high water mark.

He played 25 years total, and many of them were below 70 steals. He only had 7 years above 70 (which is still amazing).

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Yeah I didn't state that right. I just posted something ludicrous I thought I remembered without looking it up on the way to lunch. The nuggets I tried to recall but failed spectacularly are:

He averaged nearly 60 bases a year over his 25 year career (so, not 70 a year...)
And he had 3 years over 100. Including 1 year over 130 with 170 attempts

As you say, still absolutely jawdropping and without need of any exaggeration whatsoever.

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He attempted a steal over 60% of the times he reached first or second base that year.

In 1998 he walked 118 times and stole 66 bases at the age of 39.

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For some reason I thought his successful percentage was higher.
BR says he had 130 steals in 172 attempts in 1982.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/henderi01.shtml

That comes to a 75.6% success rate.

In 2021 and 2022 the average success rate for stolen bases across the league was 75.7% and 75.4%.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-early-returns-on-steals-are-overwhelming/

He's the greatest of all time at pilfering bases, and they knew he was going to try to steal more often than not, so that could play into it.

Farmer1906 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

---

Bregman's OPS the last 3 months of baseball:

August 2022 ---> 1.133 red hot

September 2022 ---> .692

April 2023 ------------> .697

he's not making it easy for the front office

---

.948 in the postseason (58 PA)

---

From the start of 2022 thru 2023 (no postseason) he has a 130 wRC+. His HH% is 37.3% and his barrel rate is 7.1%. This aligns with his career #s. His wRC+ is down somewhat (138 vs 130), but his BABIP is down so he could see some positive regression.

Look at some of the deals given out to high-level 3rd basemen:
Machado - 11/350M signed at age 30
Devers - 10/313.5M, age 26
Arenado - 8/260M, age 27
Rendon - 7/245M, age 29
Riley - 10/212, age 25 (bought out years of control)

Bregman is not far from these guys. He'll be 31 when he hits FA. Why won't he be able to get 10/250?

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10/250 would be great, he just won't be an Astro. Unless there is a team option after like 4 years

Farmer1906 said:

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scrimp said:

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Hope you are right..... Abreu and Breggy have both been disappointing so far. If they can get it going, the Astros should be at least solid until Altuve, Brantley and Chaz get healthy.

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Breggy is a victim of a really really crappy first 9 games.

Since April 9th

.257 BA
.396 OBP
.432 SLG
.828 OPS
17 BB
7 SO

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It's not like when you consider numbers you're comparing Bregmans stat line to another player that gets to eliminate their worst 10 game stretch too

I feel like we're always saying. Well since x Bregman is hitting y. Bregman is good, but he is not elite. He needs to hit further down the order with no protection because he is great at recognizing balls/strikes

Tucker needs to move up. L/R be damned

Confidence levels on an extension for each player:

Altuve - 85%
Bregman - 65%
Valdez - 45%
Tucker - less than 1%

texasaggie2015 said:

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Confidence levels on an extension for each player:

Altuve - 85%
Bregman - 65%
Valdez - 45%
Tucker - less than 1%

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Without knowing what the Astros are offering, I feel like everyone but Altuve will be much better off money-wise hitting the market.

I agree. I'm fairly confident in Bregman because he means a lot to this team and the front office really values what he brings on and off the field.

The Astros and Altuve both want Altuve to be in Houston for life.

Really don't know what to make of Framber but I know they have work to do. I lean towards no to an extension.. but wouldn't be surprised if it got done.

Tucker is a less than zero chance. He wants to test the market and I can't blame him.

I think Bregman & Framber can be had for slightly less than market value. No insider info, just the feel I get. If they can get 6/138 & 10/250 on the open market (not so thought out guesses), I think they'd stay in Houston for 5/115 & 8/200. But would Crane entertain that? Idk. Tucker? He's going to need a full market value offer.

Agree on all fronts

HarryRocket said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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scrimp said:

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Hope you are right..... Abreu and Breggy have both been disappointing so far. If they can get it going, the Astros should be at least solid until Altuve, Brantley and Chaz get healthy.

---

Breggy is a victim of a really really crappy first 9 games.

Since April 9th

.257 BA
.396 OBP
.432 SLG
.828 OPS
17 BB
7 SO

---

It's not like when you consider numbers you're comparing Bregmans stat line to another player that gets to eliminate their worst 10 game stretch too

I feel like we're always saying. Well since x Bregman is hitting y. Bregman is good, but he is not elite. He needs to hit further down the order with no protection because he is great at recognizing balls/strikes

Tucker needs to move up. L/R be damned

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My point was Bregman is playing fine now and has for a dozen or so games. In a 25 game sample 9 games is going to kill you if you slump. In a 150 game sample, 9 isn't going to matter so much.

You won't find me arguing with anyone wanting to move TED up. Most of y'all do it for me. He would 100% be batting top 3 (with Yordan) if I was the skipper.

Alex had so many big hits in the postseason last year yet was still overshadowed by Pena and Alvarez.

I read a random comment about Preston Tucker's treatment by the Astros being the reason why there's no chance Kyle will stay in Houston. Seems like more sour grapes BS towards the Champs but what's new.

"That's fan stuff."

Farmer1906 said:

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HarryRocket said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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scrimp said:

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Hope you are right..... Abreu and Breggy have both been disappointing so far. If they can get it going, the Astros should be at least solid until Altuve, Brantley and Chaz get healthy.

---

Breggy is a victim of a really really crappy first 9 games.

Since April 9th

.257 BA
.396 OBP
.432 SLG
.828 OPS
17 BB
7 SO

---

It's not like when you consider numbers you're comparing Bregmans stat line to another player that gets to eliminate their worst 10 game stretch too

I feel like we're always saying. Well since x Bregman is hitting y. Bregman is good, but he is not elite. He needs to hit further down the order with no protection because he is great at recognizing balls/strikes

Tucker needs to move up. L/R be damned

---

My point was Bregman is playing fine now and has for a dozen or so games. In a 25 game sample 9 games is going to kill you if you slump. In a 150 game sample, 9 isn't going to matter so much.

You won't find me arguing with anyone wanting to move TED up. Most of y'all do it for me. He would 100% be batting top 3 (with Yordan) if I was the skipper.

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Are you sure about this? I'm looking at baseball reference and it says that he's got an ops of like 350 over the last 7 days (6 games) and only an OPS of 752 over the last 14 days.

Even over the last 365, he's only at an OPS of 800, which yes is "good" but not anywhere near where he is expected to be.

Look at the difference in average and on base for the past 7. That average is not going to persist, but the on base will, b/c he walks. He'll be fine

Dies Irae said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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HarryRocket said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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scrimp said:

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Hope you are right..... Abreu and Breggy have both been disappointing so far. If they can get it going, the Astros should be at least solid until Altuve, Brantley and Chaz get healthy.

---

Breggy is a victim of a really really crappy first 9 games.

Since April 9th

.257 BA
.396 OBP
.432 SLG
.828 OPS
17 BB
7 SO

---

It's not like when you consider numbers you're comparing Bregmans stat line to another player that gets to eliminate their worst 10 game stretch too

I feel like we're always saying. Well since x Bregman is hitting y. Bregman is good, but he is not elite. He needs to hit further down the order with no protection because he is great at recognizing balls/strikes

Tucker needs to move up. L/R be damned

---

My point was Bregman is playing fine now and has for a dozen or so games. In a 25 game sample 9 games is going to kill you if you slump. In a 150 game sample, 9 isn't going to matter so much.

You won't find me arguing with anyone wanting to move TED up. Most of y'all do it for me. He would 100% be batting top 3 (with Yordan) if I was the skipper.

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Are you sure about this? I'm looking at baseball reference and it says that he's got an ops of like 350 over the last 7 days (6 games) and only an OPS of 752 over the last 14 days.

Even over the last 365, he's only at an OPS of 800, which yes is "good" but not anywhere near where he is expected to be.

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There are always going to be ebbs and flows. 5 of his last 6 games have stunk. 12 of his last 20 have been average to great.



It was beautiful a few days ago.

Abreu needs to be in the lineup virtually night and needs as many as ABs as possible right now imo.

The issue isn't abreu playing. It's Dusty's ridiculous need to put him in front of tucker and or right behind yordan. Until he snaps out of it move him down in the lineup and get tucker in your top 3 of lineup.

LFG, up almost $5k this week. I really like the lines today. Brown is untouchable and DeScalifania or whatever has a good ERA but a 4.5 xera and hard hit percentage in the bottom 20% of the league.

What platform is this?