***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

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Farmer1906
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 1:10p, 4/6/23
AG
Harry Dunne said:
W said:
yes, and that one was fairly easy to predict.

the Yankees are paying him for what he did for the Marlins...which is usually a mistake.

Stanton is making a cool $32 MM in 2023, 2024, and 2025...then his contract eases
Isn't that the case with any FA contract?


The idea is to pay them for what you think they can do moving forward.
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Faustus
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:13p, 4/6/23
Farmer1906 said:
I don't think they have. Fangraphs has them at 245 M this year.
That had me curious as to where the Astros rank.

We're No. 12 in payroll, and No. 12 in luxury tax figures according to Fangraphs for this season.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/breakdowns/payroll

Hopefully now that Crane doesn't have Click holding him back (chuckle) we'll see that number inch back up into the Top 1/3 of the league rather than continue on its trajectory towards the bottom half.

2022
(10th Fangraphs)
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/ym5u3u/fangraphs_rosterresource_payroll_breakdown/

(8th Spotrac)
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2022/positional/

2021
(5th Spotrac)
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2021/

2020
(5th Spotrac)
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2020/

This was as far back as Spotrac would let me go without a sub. Fangraphs doesn't archive the past payrolls.

If we can win while spending less than our competitors that's great, but I'd prefer that we not be trending downward to the bottom half of the league in payroll as we shed stars yearly.
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:15p, 4/6/23
Farmer1906 said:
Harry Dunne said:
W said:
yes, and that one was fairly easy to predict.

the Yankees are paying him for what he did for the Marlins...which is usually a mistake.

Stanton is making a cool $32 MM in 2023, 2024, and 2025...then his contract eases
Isn't that the case with any FA contract?

The idea is to pay them for what you think they can do moving forward.
Yeah that would be the idea, but it seems like when it comes to that evaluation and projection, teams are still stuck in the steroid era way of thinking, where guys' peaks continued into their late 30s.

The reality is that without PEDs, players (especially position players) are back to being on the beginning of their decline by age 30 and fall off a cliff fast in their early to mid 30s.

Ohtani is about to turn 29.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 1:20p, 4/6/23
AG
Harry Dunne said:
Farmer1906 said:
Harry Dunne said:
W said:
yes, and that one was fairly easy to predict.

the Yankees are paying him for what he did for the Marlins...which is usually a mistake.

Stanton is making a cool $32 MM in 2023, 2024, and 2025...then his contract eases
Isn't that the case with any FA contract?

The idea is to pay them for what you think they can do moving forward.
Yeah that would be the idea, but it seems like when it comes to that evaluation and projection, teams are still stuck in the steroid era way of thinking, where guys' peaks continued into their late 30s.

The reality is that without PEDs, players (especially position players) are back to being on the beginning of their decline by age 30 and fall off a cliff fast in their early to mid 30s.

Ohtani is about to turn 29.
I don't think it is the case. I think people are realizing how much prime years are worth and instead of paying 50-60 M a year, they're spreading it out to manage the cap hit.

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Farmer1906
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In reply to Faustus • 1:26p, 4/6/23
AG
Faustus said:
Farmer1906 said:
I don't think they have. Fangraphs has them at 245 M this year.
That had me curious as to where the Astros rank.

We're No. 12 in payroll, and No. 12 in luxury tax figures according to Fangraphs for this season.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/breakdowns/payroll

Hopefully now that Crane doesn't have Click holding him back (chuckle) we'll see that number inch back up into the Top 1/3 of the league rather than continue on its trajectory towards the bottom half.

2022
(10th Fangraphs)
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/ym5u3u/fangraphs_rosterresource_payroll_breakdown/

(8th Spotrac)
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2022/positional/

2021
(5th Spotrac)
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2021/

2020
(5th Spotrac)
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2020/

This was as far back as Spotrac would let me go without a sub. Fangraphs doesn't archive the past payrolls.

If we can win while spending less than our competitors that's great, but I'd prefer that we not be trending downward to the bottom half of the league in payroll as we shed stars yearly.
I think I've done this exercise before. We were around 8th-12th in '17 and '18 then jumped way up in '19 (over the limit with the ZG trade).

We just committed ~170 M to Abreu, Montero, Brantley, & Javier. In the next 2-3 years we're going to need to make decisions on Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, & Framber. I imagine we pay at least 1 of them, maybe 2. I think we'll keep a very healthy payroll (top 10ish) without going full-on Padres, Mets, Rangers, etc. and just handing out a bunch of crazy deals.
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W
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:28p, 4/6/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:



The idea is to pay them for what you think they can do moving forward.
and that idea has generally been proven to be wrong for long term contracts (with a few exceptions)

it's very difficult to project a player beyond 4 or 5 years
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W
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 1:31p, 4/6/23
AG
Harry Dunne said:


The reality is that without PEDs, players (especially position players) are back to being on the beginning of their decline by age 30 and fall off a cliff fast in their early to mid 30s.

and it's great that the Astros realize this.

the team has done a very good job of managing contracts for older players
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:47p, 4/6/23
Farmer1906 said:
Harry Dunne said:
Farmer1906 said:
Harry Dunne said:
W said:
yes, and that one was fairly easy to predict.

the Yankees are paying him for what he did for the Marlins...which is usually a mistake.

Stanton is making a cool $32 MM in 2023, 2024, and 2025...then his contract eases
Isn't that the case with any FA contract?

The idea is to pay them for what you think they can do moving forward.
Yeah that would be the idea, but it seems like when it comes to that evaluation and projection, teams are still stuck in the steroid era way of thinking, where guys' peaks continued into their late 30s.

The reality is that without PEDs, players (especially position players) are back to being on the beginning of their decline by age 30 and fall off a cliff fast in their early to mid 30s.

Ohtani is about to turn 29.
I don't think it is the case. I think people are realizing how much prime years are worth and instead of paying 50-60 M a year, they're spreading it out to manage the cap hit.

Regardless of what you think their motivation is, we can agree all teams are overpaying on nearly all of these long-term deals.

My main point is that those "prime years" have already happened by the time you are 30.
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to W • 1:48p, 4/6/23
W said:
Harry Dunne said:


The reality is that without PEDs, players (especially position players) are back to being on the beginning of their decline by age 30 and fall off a cliff fast in their early to mid 30s.

and it's great that the Astros realize this.

the team has done a very good job of managing contracts for older players
Yes! And of not caving in to sentimentality and paying anyone for services already performed but only for services (probably) to be provided.

It doesn't matter if you spread out the cap hit - high-dollar long-term deals for players in or at the end of their prime are stupid. Now if it were a necessary evil then yes, do them and take your lumps at the end. But the Astros have proven that they are not necessary in order to win multiple championships.
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tjack16
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:28p, 4/6/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Member when Sale was good?



Member when people wanted to trade Bregman and Tucker for him in 2017.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to tjack16 • 2:37p, 4/6/23
AG
tjack16 said:
Farmer1906 said:
Member when Sale was good?



Member when people wanted to trade Bregman and Tucker for him in 2017.
*2016

But the Sox outbid us because Breggy was untouchable.

Then this happened.





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gougler08
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2:43p, 4/6/23
AG
Costas is so bad as a baseball announcer
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EastCoastAgNc
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2:46p, 4/6/23
AG
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The Porkchop Express
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3:04p, 4/6/23
AG
IIRC, the Dodgers and Mariners were the other two "finalists" for Ohtani originally.

I've heard two different podcast people say that Ohtani's cultural beliefs would likely have him not consider the Dodgers because of their proximity to the Angels - sort of like a honor thing or a non-compete clause, you don't go across town to work for the other club.

With the Mariners locking up J-Rod as their mega-star, do they go fishing for Ohtani again? I remember they had traded a couple of guys to free up $$$ to sign him the first time.
Life is better with a beagle
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Oyster DuPree
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In reply to spadilly • 3:34p, 4/6/23
AG
spadilly said:
Off days…


There he is
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Wabs
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3:38p, 4/6/23
AG
The Giants have hit 12 HRs so far in their 3-game series with the White Sox.
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Jackal99
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4:09p, 4/6/23
AG
Need some help with fantasy baseball decisions, if anyone's bored on an off day. Specifically with my keepers, some combination of the following: Ohtani, Tucker, and Alvarez. Our draft is this Saturday; a little late, I know, but this is a more relaxed league.

- I can keep either Ohtani or Tucker as my only fourth-year franchise player, but not both. If I keep Ohtani, he moves up to my first round pick (from third round), which I'm fine with. If I keep Tucker, he moves up to the 18th round (from 20), which is a steal.

- I can keep Alvarez, but he would move up from round 2 to round 1. Obviously, I can only keep one of Ohtani or Alvarez, too.

So, the dilemma is:
1. Keep Ohtani, and lose Tucker and Alvarez
2. Keep Tucker and Alvarez, and lose Ohtani

I already plan to keep Verlander, as a 22nd round pick (drafted him the year he was out for the whole season to store as a keeper).

I have to decide by tonight. Anybody smarter than me have any thoughts?
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Jackal99 • 4:17p, 4/6/23
AG
I'm a fantasy newb. Does your league treat Ohtani as both pitcher and hitter? In my league he's 2 players. Batter Ohtani & Pitcher Ohtani.

If he's not both, then the choice is easy.
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Jackal99
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:23p, 4/6/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
I'm a fantasy newb. Does your league treat Ohtani as both pitcher and hitter? In my league he's 2 players. Batter Ohtani & Pitcher Ohtani.

If he's not both, then the choice is easy.
Sort of. The person who drafts him has him for both. So, two people can't have him in different capacities. But I can only use him as a pitcher or hitter in a game, not both. So when he's in a pitcher, I don't get batting stats for him.
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EastCoastAgNc
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4:45p, 4/6/23
AG

Astros employees getting their rings today. Wonder how click is getting his? FedEx?
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NTAS
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4:45p, 4/6/23
I gotta go with keeping Tucker as an 18th rounder being the best value. Treat every round as an individual battle and you win the war.
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EastCoastAgNc
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4:46p, 4/6/23
AG
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 4:57p, 4/6/23
I bet Daniela is so mad she could crack a dude's rib right now.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 5:30p, 4/6/23
AG
They should honor him on the field like they do visiting players.
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aggie813
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 5:43p, 4/6/23
That global warming sure is a SOB.
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Pahdz
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 5:44p, 4/6/23
This weekend is gonna gorgeous up here, freaking sucks the one trip the Astros have here is Easter weekend
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to Pahdz • 5:46p, 4/6/23
AG
Pahdz said:
This weekend is gonna gorgeous up here, freaking sucks the one trip the Astros have here is Easter weekend
Classic Jesus. Making Easter all about Himself.
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Marvin
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5:51p, 4/6/23
AG
Anybody follow Sam at Augusta National today while the Astros were off? Helluva round!
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Pahdz
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In reply to aggie813 • 5:59p, 4/6/23
Top 5 snowiest winter of all time up here
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EastCoastAgNc
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6:02p, 4/6/23
AG
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EastCoastAgNc
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6:02p, 4/6/23
AG

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maca1028
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In reply to Marvin • 6:02p, 4/6/23
Yep, the kid put on a clinic today. I don't think I saw a single errant shot.
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Mathguy64
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6:55p, 4/6/23
AG
Watching SD v ATL. How the hell did Rat Face Odor end up in SD?
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RED AG 98
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6:57p, 4/6/23
AG
Also don't forget Ags are tonight (3 minutes to be exact)! Series is Thu - Sat this week.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Marvin • 7:02p, 4/6/23
AG
Marvin said:
Anybody follow Sam at Augusta National today while the Astros were off? Helluva round!


I've watched A LOT of Masters rounds and that was one of the coolest I've seen.

Then afterwards on SportsCenter hearing SVP mention 'The Aggie gave everyone out on the course a big Gig Em today' was awesome.

Proud of Sam and can't wait to watch him this weekend.
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