Like in most sports the coaches are overrated and much of the failure should fall at the players feet. We have guys in our lineup that just aren't very good.
***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****
7,014,358 Views |
114825 Replies |
Last: 1 yr ago by texasaggie2015
Another thing about the hitting are walks. We have been in the top third in walks every season since 2018 (not counting 2020), but this year we are in the bottom third.
I see a lot of guys who are pressing. Worst thing that can happen at the plate.
walks are very important
they help to run up the opposing starter's pitch count...
and roll the order over to get more AB's for the top of the lineup
they help to run up the opposing starter's pitch count...
and roll the order over to get more AB's for the top of the lineup
We have all seen it. We just don't take pitches anymore. And Dusty thinks those types of players should lead off.Beerosch said:
Another thing about the hitting are walks. We have been in the top third in walks every season since 2018 (not counting 2020), but this year we are in the bottom third.
My favorite prospect (Kenni Gomez) is dealing with an undisclosed injury which has kept him out the last week or so. I know y'all miss my updates on him.
Its kind of the nature of the game when you replace guys like Correa for Pena (10% to 4%), Brantley for Julks (9% for 5%), Gurriel for Abreu (this one is fairly even), & even Maldy for Yainer (9% for 3%). Guys like Alvarez, Bregman, Altuve so far, & TED are all walking at a good rate.
Brantley vs Julks is exacerbated by the quality of hitter as well. .300 vs a .240 hitter
Pena comparison doesn't count for me, he was there last year.
Pena comparison doesn't count for me, he was there last year.
Regardless, outside of 2019, the Astros have been solid to good at drawing walks. Rarely elite. What we've done well is not K. We've gone from elite to just good. This year you can thank Maldy, Jake, Hensley, Salazar, Bannon, & Julks.
Speaking of that group, about 22% of our PA are from Julks, Abreu, Maldy, Hensley, Kessinger, Salazar, & Bannon. I would estimate that group is about 50% worse than the average MLB player. That means the other 78% needs to be about 15% above average just the get the squad to average offensively.
It comes down to the roster construction and how it's being deployed. Too many bad players are playing or too many players are out in bad spots. We're all a broken record. What else can we say tho? Talk about trade options.
Speaking of that group, about 22% of our PA are from Julks, Abreu, Maldy, Hensley, Kessinger, Salazar, & Bannon. I would estimate that group is about 50% worse than the average MLB player. That means the other 78% needs to be about 15% above average just the get the squad to average offensively.
It comes down to the roster construction and how it's being deployed. Too many bad players are playing or too many players are out in bad spots. We're all a broken record. What else can we say tho? Talk about trade options.
Altuve
Bregman
Tucker
Abreu
Diaz DH
Chas
Pena
Meyers
Maldy
Bregman
Tucker
Abreu
Diaz DH
Chas
Pena
Meyers
Maldy
Thats actually not bad
Why is Peña still hitting 7th? I don't understand the logic behind it. He has something around a .900 OPS in the 2 spot.
What kind of stock do y'all put into a player's numbers based on where they hit in the lineup?
edit: Bonnet is speaking to the sort of thing I'm asking
edit: Bonnet is speaking to the sort of thing I'm asking
Depends on the sample size. There's guys who are certainly more comfortable in some spots. Each spot in the lineup also has a different approach that may work better for a guy's skill set.redline248 said:
What kind of stock do y'all put into a player's numbers based on where they hit in the lineup?
edit: Bonnet is speaking to the sort of thing I'm asking
redline248 said:
Altuve
Bregman
Tucker
Abreu
Diaz DH
Chas
Pena
Meyers
Maldy
Bregman hits into too many DPs for my taste. At least Peña is faster and may beat some of them out. I'd put him after Diaz.
Bonnettecj1 said:
Why is Peña still hitting 7th? I don't understand the logic behind it. He has something around a .900 OPS in the 2 spot.
To be fair hitting in front of a large Cuban missile launcher would do wonders for most everyone's OPS.
batting Bregman below 4 is against the rules or something.
Do we have 4 better hitters?HarryRocket said:
batting Bregman below 4 is against the rules or something.
redline248 said:
What kind of stock do y'all put into a player's numbers based on where they hit in the lineup?
edit: Bonnet is speaking to the sort of thing I'm asking
Dude has played his best baseball out of the 2 spot. See: 2022 ALCS, 2022 World Series. I believe he got some hardware from those series, no?
Maybe someone can get the stats, but the W/L record of the team is significantly better with him hitting there.
Pena in front of prime Bregman or Yordan is what makes it work well, IMO. Getting him more fastballs or off speed in the zone.
It's not meaningless, but I don't put much stock into it. If you're a good hitter in the 1-hole then you're probably a good hitter in the 2-hole. If you're an avg hitter in the 7-hole then you're probably an average hitter in the 4-hole.redline248 said:
What kind of stock do y'all put into a player's numbers based on where they hit in the lineup?
edit: Bonnet is speaking to the sort of thing I'm asking
I don't disagree with you
In 2023:
Bregman batting 2nd vs 4th
.733 OPS, 108 wRC+ (204 PA) vs .853 OPS, 139 wRC+ (79 PA)
Pena batting 2nd vs 6th vs 7th
.959 OPS, 164 wRC+ (70 PA) vs .607 OPS, 67 wRC+ (135 PA) vs .729 OPS, 95 wRC+ (23 PA)
Tucker batting 3rd vs 5th
.637 OPS, 84 wRC+ (37 PA) vs .841 OPS, 131 wRC+ (178 PA)
Granted, some of these are really small samples, and I know how some of you feel about it. With Yordan out I think Tucker has to bat 3rd no matter what, but I would probably put Pena 2nd and Bregman 4th
Bregman batting 2nd vs 4th
.733 OPS, 108 wRC+ (204 PA) vs .853 OPS, 139 wRC+ (79 PA)
Pena batting 2nd vs 6th vs 7th
.959 OPS, 164 wRC+ (70 PA) vs .607 OPS, 67 wRC+ (135 PA) vs .729 OPS, 95 wRC+ (23 PA)
Tucker batting 3rd vs 5th
.637 OPS, 84 wRC+ (37 PA) vs .841 OPS, 131 wRC+ (178 PA)
Granted, some of these are really small samples, and I know how some of you feel about it. With Yordan out I think Tucker has to bat 3rd no matter what, but I would probably put Pena 2nd and Bregman 4th
I generally agree with this, but there are instances of hitters performing better (or worse) at different spots over bigger samples than the small ones I've shown. Again, how much of that is the stuff that can't be measured? Feel, comfort, handling pressure of a different spot, etcFarmer1906 said:It's not meaningless, but I don't put much stock into it. If you're a good hitter in the 1-hole then you're probably a good hitter in the 2-hole. If you're an avg hitter in the 7-hole then you're probably an average hitter in the 4-hole.redline248 said:
What kind of stock do y'all put into a player's numbers based on where they hit in the lineup?
edit: Bonnet is speaking to the sort of thing I'm asking
Chas batting 1st vs batting 6th vs batting 7th
.919 OPS, 158 wRC+ (31 PA) vs .646 OPS, 91 wRC+ (39 PA) vs .754 OPS, 106 wRC+ (45 PA)
.919 OPS, 158 wRC+ (31 PA) vs .646 OPS, 91 wRC+ (39 PA) vs .754 OPS, 106 wRC+ (45 PA)
I think I have it tracked in baseball savant.linkdude said:
Pena in front of prime Bregman or Yordan is what makes it work well, IMO. Getting him more fastballs or off speed in the zone.
I am looking at 2022 regular season, postseason, & 2023 season.
Pena has seen a total of 3262 pitches. 1278 have come from the 2-hole (39.2%)
In those in the 2-hole, 625 have been fastballs (4 seam, sinker, cutter).
For ease of search, if you compare that to 3 thru 9-hole he's seen 1630 pitches. 778 of those were fastballs.
47.7% in 3-9
48.9% in 2
Is a 1.2% increase in fastballs because of the lineup position or a general variance? Did he face more fastball pitchers?
In Zone
46.3% in 3-9
47.3% in 2
Same question for seeing more strikes? Just variation or something real?
Does the small combo of both make it meaningful?
My guess is that it did help some. Is it the reason his wOBA jumped from .282 to .380? Nope. The xwOBA is quite a bit closer.
This may help explain some of the differences.
Pena is better vs LHP (.360 wOBA vs .301 wOBA).
2 Hole - 30.1% LHP
3-9 Hole - 25.4% LHP
Pena is better vs LHP (.360 wOBA vs .301 wOBA).
2 Hole - 30.1% LHP
3-9 Hole - 25.4% LHP
I wonder what the difference is for all 2 hole hitters vs other spots across the league this year.
It's always been said batters will see better pitches if they have lineup protection. Is there statistical basis?
It's always been said batters will see better pitches if they have lineup protection. Is there statistical basis?
It's kind of a chicken or the egg thing. Do players hit better in the 2-hole or do managers put better players in the 2-hole?redline248 said:
I wonder what the difference is for all 2 hole hitters vs other spots across the league this year.
It's always been said batters will see better pitches if they have lineup protection. Is there statistical basis?
Or are we looking for guys who have hit in multiple positions to compare? That would be wild if someone could pull that. I can barely fumble my way thru some Pena stats.
The bottom line is that Pena shouldn't be batting anywhere but #2.
Same for Altuve and leading off
This isn't brain surgery.
Same for Altuve and leading off
This isn't brain surgery.
I just meant if the difference in fastball was still around 1.5% across the league, or pitches on the zone.
But I think you're right, managers - except Dusty - put the better hitters up there.
But I think you're right, managers - except Dusty - put the better hitters up there.
Ag_07 said:
The bottom line is that Pena shouldn't be batting anywhere but #2.
Same for Altuve and leading off
This isn't brain surgery.
Or we put our best hitter there like the rest of baseball.
Judge, Trout, Turner, Franco, Bichette.
League wide the 2 hole has a 112 OPS+ Which is tied for highest with the 3 hole.
Largest shifts in playoff chances
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 19, 2023
since games of June 1
(according to FanGraphs):
+25.2% Phillies
+24.4% Marlins
+24.0% Angels
+19.2% Orioles
+13.2% Giants
+11.4% Guardians
-12.6% Twins
-13.2% Dodgers
-23.3% Yankees
-25.6% Cardinals
-30.4% Astros
-42.8% Mets
Yordan Alvarez & Jose Urquidy doing some running on the field pic.twitter.com/9qh2Blawub
— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) June 19, 2023
So, Yordan. Who while he's out?Farmer1906 said:Ag_07 said:
The bottom line is that Pena shouldn't be batting anywhere but #2.
Same for Altuve and leading off
This isn't brain surgery.
Or we put our best hitter there like the rest of baseball.
Judge, Trout, Turner, Franco, Bichette.
League wide the 2 hole has a 112 OPS+ Which is tied for highest with the 3 hole.
Featured Stories
See All
16:42
3h ago
1.6k
All-American Jace LaViolette motivated by A&M baseball's brotherhood
by Ryan Brauninger
27:26
15h ago
5.7k
20:23
4h ago
3.5k
5 Thoughts: No. 8 Texas A&M 69, Georgia 53
by Luke Evangelist