***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

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Dies Irae
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 11:25a, 5/23/23
Mathguy64 said:
Some league wide rankings for Abreu, based on all qualified hitters in MLB

wRC+ 3rd worst
fWAR dead ass last
wOBA 2nd worst
xwOBA 6th worst
SLG 2nd worst

The argument isn't "whether or not he should be batting 4th, 5th or 7th" but ""whether or not he should even be playing".

Even I wouldn't have the stones to stop playing him. You're looking at a complete $60 million, 3 year white flag waving if you do that. You've gotta at least give him till the All-Star break to see if he somehow breaks out of it.

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Farmer1906
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 11:38a, 5/23/23
AG
Mathguy64 said:
Some league wide rankings for Abreu, based on all qualified hitters in MLB

wRC+ 3rd worst
fWAR dead ass last
wOBA 2nd worst
xwOBA 6th worst
SLG 2nd worst

The argument isn't "whether or not he should be batting 4th, 5th or 7th" but ""whether or not he should even be playing".
Bright side? Hopefully, I don't pull a muscle reaching here.

xBA - 57th worst (261 qualified)
xSLG - 23rd worst (better than Yuli, Straw, Kemp, & Aledmys)
xwOBA - 22nd worst

He's bad, but he's not as bad as his #s shows. We should see some improvement.

He's -1 in OAA. Again, not great, but he's tied with Yuli. He's ranked 23/36.

He's been good when he's gotten ahead in the count.
3-0 - 1.000 OPS
3-1 - 1.542 OPS
2-1 - 1.000 OPS.

The problem is, he only had 16 total plate appearances with those counts when he's put the ball in play or walked.

Finally, he's best against "Power" pitchers. .713 OPS in 50 PA vs pitchers in the top 1/3 of the league in SO+BB.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:39a, 5/23/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Fair point, but there are levels to things. Being 5-15% below avg is one thing, but Abreu is 48% below league average. That's staggering.
I was just curious about the other low performers but you're right, Abreu is in a class by himself, which makes the cleanup spot so mind-numbingly stupid. Believe me, I'm one of the biggest pot bangers.

If we continue to kick ass this series with Abreu batting 5th and he continues to strike out weakly or hit into double plays and Dusty AGAIN puts him at the cleanup spot in our series with Oakland this weekend (because don't forget, the A's have all those lefties who apparently terrorize Yordan and Tucker), I might have to fly to the west coast and punch him in the throat.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Prosperdick • 11:43a, 5/23/23
AG
Someone let Dusty know that lefties have been extra tough for Abreu this year. 14 wRC+ vs them this year. Do not put Abreu ahead of any of the following when a LHP starts: McCormick (204 wRC+), Meyers (191), Dubon (155), or Pena (124).
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wangus12
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 11:53a, 5/23/23
AG
bearkatag15 said:


I agree with a lot of these. Diaz should play 1B a lot more.
I fully expect Maldy to now be benched 95% of the time based on current statistics
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Farmer1906
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11:54a, 5/23/23
AG
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:27p, 5/23/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Mathguy64 said:
Some league wide rankings for Abreu, based on all qualified hitters in MLB

wRC+ 3rd worst
fWAR dead ass last
wOBA 2nd worst
xwOBA 6th worst
SLG 2nd worst

The argument isn't "whether or not he should be batting 4th, 5th or 7th" but ""whether or not he should even be playing".
Bright side? Hopefully, I don't pull a muscle reaching here.

xBA - 57th worst (261 qualified)
xSLG - 23rd worst (better than Yuli, Straw, Kemp, & Aledmys)
xwOBA - 22nd worst

He's bad, but he's not as bad as his #s shows. We should see some improvement.

He's -1 in OAA. Again, not great, but he's tied with Yuli. He's ranked 23/36.

He's been good when he's gotten ahead in the count.
3-0 - 1.000 OPS
3-1 - 1.542 OPS
2-1 - 1.000 OPS.

The problem is, he only had 16 total plate appearances with those counts when he's put the ball in play or walked.

Finally, he's best against "Power" pitchers. .713 OPS in 50 PA vs pitchers in the top 1/3 of the league in SO+BB.
The trick is to have him hit with 2 outs and RISP where his OPS+ is 247. If anyone gets ISP in front of him we should clearly just let him waive any extra outs.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 12:31p, 5/23/23
AG
So another reason why hitting behind Yordan is dumb because that MFer doesn't leave anyone on base.
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Wabs
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In reply to Ag_07 • 12:42p, 5/23/23
AG
Ag_07 said:
So another reason why hitting behind Yordan is dumb because that MFer doesn't leave anyone on base.
Yordan should bat 9th so he can hit 8-run HRs.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Ag_07 • 12:43p, 5/23/23
AG
Ag_07 said:
So another reason why hitting behind Yordan is dumb because that MFer doesn't leave anyone on base.
With RISP, Yordan is .471/.524/1.059. His OPS+ is 203 and the OPS+ for that particular event is 312. That's 34 AB and 37 RBI.

With RISP and 2 outs it's .566/.600/1.111 with OPS+ 231 and a split OPS+ of 357. 18 AB and 18 RBI.

It would literally be cheaper to walk him.

Why anyone does anything but just hold up 4 is nuts.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 12:48p, 5/23/23
AG
It really is grounds for the Barry Bonds treatment. If the game is within reach say 0-3 runs I'm walking him no matter what.

Think about last night.

I would give him a free pass and give up 1 and take my chances that Abreu comes up and hits into a DP.
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Ags #1
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In reply to Ag_07 • 12:53p, 5/23/23
AG
wasnt tucker after yordan last night?
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Ag_07
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In reply to Ags #1 • 12:56p, 5/23/23
AG
You're right he was

Still wouldn't change my approach.

I'm not letting Yordan beat me because he will.
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Mathguy64
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12:57p, 5/23/23
AG
So for the Barry Bonds treatment events, Yordan has 9 PA with bases loaded. He slashes .625/.667/1.500 with 16 RBI. Yep. A smart manager would do it. Craig Counsell has his doubts.

He has 3 PA with bases loaded and 1 out. He had a BB and 2 slams. That's insane.
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W
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1:10p, 5/23/23
AG
the intentional walk has fallen out of favor in baseball

I guess due to analytics

but sometimes the first priority is eliminating the worst case scenario
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W
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In reply to Prosperdick • 1:18p, 5/23/23
AG
hate to say it...but George is hurting the last place Blue Jays (25-23) rather significantly

.312 on-base % from the leadoff spot

8 x-base hits in 183 at-bats

.662 OPS

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JPN06
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 1:28p, 5/23/23
Mathguy64 said:
So for the Barry Bonds treatment events, Yordan has 9 PA with bases loaded. He slashes .625/.667/1.500 with 16 RBI. Yep. A smart manager would do it. Craig Counsell has his doubts.

He has 3 PA with bases loaded and 1 out. He had a BB and 2 slams. That's insane.
Counsell taking a lot of flak for the decision to pitch to Yordan, but down 6-1 in the 6th you're already screwed & needing a miracle, so I think it's the right call. If you walk him, you're down 7-1 and you've still got to face Tucker with the bases loaded and 1 out.

The 4D move would be to walk Yordan, walk Tucker and then get the auto DP with Abreu.

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Wabs
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In reply to JPN06 • 1:40p, 5/23/23
AG
JPN06 said:
Mathguy64 said:
So for the Barry Bonds treatment events, Yordan has 9 PA with bases loaded. He slashes .625/.667/1.500 with 16 RBI. Yep. A smart manager would do it. Craig Counsell has his doubts.

He has 3 PA with bases loaded and 1 out. He had a BB and 2 slams. That's insane.
Counsell taking a lot of flak for the decision to pitch to Yordan, but down 6-1 in the 6th you're already screwed & needing a miracle, so I think it's the right call. If you walk him, you're down 7-1 and you've still got to face Tucker with the bases loaded and 1 out.

The 4D move would be to walk Yordan, walk Tucker and then get the auto DP with Abreu.

This. They were already down by 5 and you've got Tucker on deck. No-win situation and that's why I think having Tuck and Yordan back-to-back is a good thing.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Ag_07 • 1:55p, 5/23/23
AG
Ag_07 said:
It really is grounds for the Barry Bonds treatment. If the game is within reach say 0-3 runs I'm walking him no matter what.

Think about last night.

I would give him a free pass and give up 1 and take my chances that Abreu comes up and hits into a DP.
I've been beating that drum for a while. I can't recall which game it was, probably Atlanta, where I said the same thing, walk him with the bases drunk and say, there's your freebie RBI, let Abreu beat you. The problem is telling the pitcher to walk in a run on purpose and eat that RBI but manager has final say.
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texasaggie2015
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2:34p, 5/23/23
AG
I've been out of the country for the last week or so. Do I need to go back?
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 2:37p, 5/23/23
AG
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stoneca
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3:31p, 5/23/23
The Perfect Lineup!

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tjack16
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3:36p, 5/23/23
AG
Wtf does Dubon have to do
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cc10106
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3:42p, 5/23/23
Dubon isn't an everyday starter now, but I'm sure he'll get another one soon.
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Farmer1906
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3:59p, 5/23/23
AG
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Ag_07
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4:00p, 5/23/23
AG
Shocked Pena is out there today after taking 99 off the hand
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Marvin
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4:09p, 5/23/23
AG
10+ runs last night. Let's see how it goes...
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Marvin • 4:19p, 5/23/23
AG
Its a new season and our first 10 spot. Everything is on the table.
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W
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4:43p, 5/23/23
AG
Altuve and Dubon in the same lineup...is not allowed
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4:46p, 5/23/23
AG
Colin Rea starting for the Brewers

hit the top of the country charts back in the 90's
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bearkatag15
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4:55p, 5/23/23
AG
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Dies Irae
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In reply to stoneca • 5:33p, 5/23/23
stoneca said:
The Perfect Lineup!




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Prosperdick
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 5:41p, 5/23/23
AG
bearkatag15 said:
Don't forget, our lineup doesn't strike fear in anyone.
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Marvin
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In reply to Prosperdick • 5:46p, 5/23/23
AG
Prosperdick said:
bearkatag15 said:
Don't forget, our lineup doesn't strike fear in anyone.

Yeah, they actually doubled down on that take. Rangerettes are *all in* on their hot offensive start being the norm for the entire season. They are just that much better than every other team.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
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chico
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 5:55p, 5/23/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:


He will cover St Louis and Kansas City baseball.
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