***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***

1,071,232 Views | 12340 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Beat40
Deluxe
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AG
My Pena 2023 Hype Meter is getting dangerously high and probly needs to be toned down.

I'm feeling Gold Glove caliber SS with 30+ HR and 7+ WAR. Full-on breakout into superstar territory.
Farmer1906
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AG
To add to your thoughts on Arlington and Anaheim, they're 7th & 9th in total cash remaining on active deals. 776 M & 628 M. The teams with more are San Diego, New York M, New York Y, Philly, Atlanta, Boston (stick them in the group with the Rangers & Angels), & Los Angeles. Basically, a who's who of baseball ahead of them while they stick out like a sore thumb.

And it's not like it's just a bunch of short term deals or deals about to end. In 2025 Arlington & Anaheim are 7th & 10th. 2027, 8th & 11th. These contracts will weigh then down more when all the recent free agents are out of their prime.

For Comparison the top 5 remaining contracts with player's age.

Rangers:
Seager - 287 M - 28
DeGrom - 185 M - 34
Semien - 150 M - 32
Gray - 41 M - 31
Eovaldi - 34 M - 33
Avg - 139.4 M - 31.6

Astros:
Alvarez - 115 M - 25
McCullers - 66.3 M - 29
Javier - 64 M - 25
Abreu - 58.5 M - 36
Bregman - 57 M - 28
Avg - 72.2 M - 28.6
Farmer1906
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Deluxe said:

My Pena 2023 Hype Meter is getting dangerously high and probly needs to be toned down.

I'm feeling Gold Glove caliber SS with 30+ HR and 7+ WAR. Full-on breakout into superstar territory.
I think 30 HR is attainable. He probably needs to start elevating more balls in order to do so. 23 dudes hit 30 or more HRs last year. Only Vlad Jr had a lower FB% than Pena. The avg from the group ~44%. Pena was at 32.9%. He gets that up and 30 is an excellent target to chase.

You lost me on the 7+ fWAR part. Over the last 10 years, there have only been 4(ish) 7 WAR seasons by short stops.

2019 Bregman - 8.1 (really a 3B)
2018 Lindor - 7.8
2021 Tatis Jr - 7.3 (juicing)
2018 Machado - 7.0

5 fWAR would be a more realistic ceiling for Pena. Even that has only been done 27x by short stops over the last decade. bWAR was a bit more kind of Pena last year.

For me, Pena's path to greatness mainly relies on the swing and miss & discipline at the plate. He can't be bottom 4% in BB%, 18% in Whiff%, and 8% in Chase%.
Deluxe
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AG
Yep. Can't buy a rebuild.

The Phillies may have tricked a few teams into thinking it's possible, but they crafted theirs almost perfectly. And they still only won 87 games last and snuck into the playoffs. Tip of the cap for getting super hot at the right time though.

Rangers and Angels just seem too ownership driven. No smart baseball ops group would say give $700mm to DeGrom, Seager and Semien. Those deals happen cuz owners have ulterior motives for wanting them.
Deluxe
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AG
I was looking at his bWAR, which was 4.8 last year in 521 ABs.

You're right that his fWAR is a much steeper hill to climb.
Cobra39
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The Porkchop Express said:

36 days until Opening Day gets us to #36 on the countdown and one of the most underrated pitchers in Major League history, all-time Astro great Joe Niekro, who wore the # from 1975 to 1985 and was one of the club's all-time steals; the team purchased his contract from the Braves in 1975 for $35,000. He had done time with the Cubs, Padres, and Tigers previously. With the Braves, he played alongside his older brother Phil Niekro, a more established starter.



Although he had been a starter throughout the first 8 years of his career, the Astros used him out of the bullpen in 1975 and 1976. He was 6-4 in 1975 with 4 saves in 40 games. In 1977, he moved back to life as a starter at age 32 and was 13-8 with a 3.04 ERA.

In 1976, he hit the only home run of his career ... and it was against his brother.

The Niekros' father had taught them how to throw a knuckleball, and it was Phil's specialty throughout his career. Joe re-learned it while in Houston and started mixing it in with his fastball and slider. He put it all together in 1979 and went 21-11 with a 3.00 ERA. The 21 wins tied brother Phil for the NL lead, the only time that's happened in MLB history. He also pitched 11 complete games and led the league with 5 shutouts as the team went 89-73.

In 1980, the Astros won the West at last, with Niekro doing most of the heavy lifting. He went 20-12 with 11 complete games and 2 shutouts. On October 2, 1980, he beat the Braves 3-2 in front of 45,000 fans at the Astrodome to get Houston to 92-67 and a 3-game lead over the hated Dodgers with 3 games to go.

Of course, the team went to LA and lost 3 straight to finish tied with the Dodgers after 162 games, forcing the first one-game playoff in NL history since the Dodgers and Giants played a 3-game playoff to determine the pennant in 1962. The Astros lost all 3 regular season games by one run each, putting Niekro back on the mound vs. the not-so-good Dave Goltz in Game 163.

The Astros scored 2 unearned runs in the top of the first and were up 7-0 after 4 innings. Niekro steamrolled LA's offense, pitching a complete game and allowing one unearned run while striking out six. The Dodgers' only run was scored by Dusty Baker.

His next start was Game 3 of the NLCS. With the series tied 1-1, Niekro started the first post-season game in the history of the Astrodome and was utterly brilliant, pitching TEN innings of 6-hit shut out baseball with 1 walk and 2 strikeouts. Finally relieved by Dave Smith in the top of the 11th, Niekro took the no-decision when Joe Morgan tripled to lead off the bottom of the 11th and Denny Walling drove in the game-winning run with a sac fly off Tug McGraw.

If you want to see something on par for chills with the end of Game 5 vs LA in 2017, check out this YouTube clip which starts with Morgan's triple, then the Phillies IBB Cruz and Howe, and Walling wins it. The eruption of noise for your first-ever home playoff win is pure joy.



The Astros made the playoffs vs. LA in the strike-shortened 1981. Niekro was 9-9 despite a 2.82 ERA. He started Game 2 and went 8 shutout innings before giving way to the bullpen. Remarkably it was Denny Walling again with the game-winning hit in the bottom of the 11th of a 1-0 victory. Niekro with the no-decision!

He went on to win 48 games between 1982-1984 at ages 37-39, then fell off in 1985 and was traded to the Yankees for a young left-hander named Jim Deshaies. The next year he was traded from the Yankees to the Twins.

Niekro got in some serious trouble at the start of the year when he was caught scuffing the ball and tried to casually throw the emery board and sandpaper out of his pocket,




in one of the most hilarious things ever. He made light of the situation later that year when he appeared on Late Night with David Letterman wearing a tool belt and a powder sander. I can't even imagine Manfred's reaction to something like this happening today!




But he also had the last laugh as the Twins won the AL West despite winning just 85 games and wound up winning the World Series. Niekro pitched two scoreless innings and setting an MLB record for the oldest age (42) to make his World Series debut.

He remains the Astros all time win leader. Sadly, Joe died of a brain aneurysm in his early 60s in 2006.








Awesome. Thanks for posting.

Cobra39
Faustus
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AggieNiebs said:

bearkatag15 said:



Elite status
Angels have 2, and none of them are ranked 4-100..... wow!! thats one hell of a drop off from Ohtani and Trout...
Bottom 10 teams (1/3 of the league) have 5 players in the Top 100.

These are the happy days, the salad days as they say. And the Astros felt that havin' another championship was the next logical step. It was all they thought about.
EastCoastAgNc
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AG
bearkatag15
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AG


That's a weird use of the word "regulars"
Keeper of The Spirits
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AG
If we'd kept JV we'd have a two player lead on everyone
Beat40
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How so?
Farmer1906
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AG
-1 for NYM
+1 for HOU

9 > 7
Farmer1906
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AG
First clock violation

Lonestar_Ag09
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AG
Guilty. Math is hard
Mathguy64
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AG
Between Machado and Soto I predict SD gives up a ton of free strikes. Or the league/umps just start ignoring it unless it's blatant.
n_touch
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Farmer1906 said:

First clock violation


So glad we have a clock now so that we can call time out and stop play to call a fake strike. Man this should save a bunch of time.
Farmer1906
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AG
With that giant ass clock, it's going to be difficult to ignore.
cone
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AG
ridiculous
Ag_07
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AG
Farmer1906 said:

First clock violation



WTF is happening here?

The clock is at 7 sec when the strike is called
bearkatag15
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AG
Farmer1906
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Ag_07 said:

Farmer1906 said:

First clock violation



WTF is happening here?

The clock is at 7 sec when the strike is called
Bases empty, 15 seconds for the pitcher.
Men on, 20 seconds for the pitcher.

Batter gets 8 seconds.

It's a 15 sec clock in this case. Once it drops from 7 to 6, its an auto strike.
Ag_07
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AG
How stupid is that?

The batter has to be in the box in 8 sec but the pitcher can stand there and hold the ball for another 7-12 seconds.

WTF is the point of getting the batter in the box? Why wouldn't they just be the same?
Mathguy64
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AG
I'll go on record. Tucker is going to have to adjust and quit his habit of backing out and grabbing dirt. He's probably the worst of our hitters. Yordan is easily the best. He just stands there and never leaves the box.
bearkatag15
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AG
Mathguy64 said:

I'll go on record. Tucker is going to have to adjust and quit his habit of backing out and grabbing dirt. He's probably the worst of our hitters. Yordan is easily the best. He just stands there and never leaves the box.
Marwin would give Tucker a run for his money on delays out of the box
Mathguy64
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AG
Marwin would strike out without having a pitch thrown with this clock.
McInnis
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AG
I like it. Not that long ago MLB games took two to two and a half hours to play and they were better to watch than now.

Think, if you watch 150 games a year, and for every game there's a half hour of batters adjusting their gloves, picking up dirt while pitchers stroll around the mound spitting, that's about two work weeks a year. Is anyone really going to miss that?
The Porkchop Express
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McInnis said:

I like it. Not that long ago MLB games took two to two and a half hours to play and they were better to watch than now.

Think, if you watch 150 games a year, and for every game there's a half hour of batters adjusting their gloves, picking up dirt while pitchers stroll around the mound spitting, that's about two work weeks a year. Is anyone really going to miss that?


Uh yeah, you are taking half an hour of my go-to excuse of "I'll do it when the game is over " away.
Life is better with a beagle
Mathguy64
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AG
On the flip side you just know Urkeeding is thinking "man. 15 seconds? That's an eternity. I can go in 5."
Farmer1906
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Mathguy64 said:

On the flip side you just know Urkeeding is thinking "man. 15 seconds? That's an eternity. I can go in 5."


He's actually not as fast as you think. I thought he was too but he ranks 88th in tempo, just 0.2 sec faster than LMJ. He slows down quite a bit with runners on.
tjack16
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AG
Any update on Gurriel and his FA situation?
MAROON
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AG
haven't heard anything. I think if I'm his agent we are sitting tight until the eventual spring training injuries start happening.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
MAROON
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AG
this seems less than ideal:

Warner Bros. Discovery Looks to Get Out of Regional Sports TV Business - WSJ

AT&T SportsNet reportedly falls short in payment to Pirates, could be in distress | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

not sure if this has already been discussed. Parent of ATT Sports Net wants out of the business.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
Bunk Moreland
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MAROON said:

this seems less than ideal:

Warner Bros. Discovery Looks to Get Out of Regional Sports TV Business - WSJ

AT&T SportsNet reportedly falls short in payment to Pirates, could be in distress | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

not sure if this has already been discussed. Parent of ATT Sports Net wants out of the business.

With its entry into golf, the CW should use this as an opportunity to expand their sports coverage and maybe get some good deals, at least in the short term.
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amercer
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AG
Flight was delayed, but we are in the air headed to Palm Beach now. Some Mets and Nats fans on the plane with us too.
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