Deluxe said:
My Pena 2023 Hype Meter is getting dangerously high and probly needs to be toned down.
I'm feeling Gold Glove caliber SS with 30+ HR and 7+ WAR. Full-on breakout into superstar territory.
I think 30 HR is attainable. He probably needs to start elevating more balls in order to do so. 23 dudes hit 30 or more HRs last year. Only Vlad Jr had a lower FB% than Pena. The avg from the group ~44%. Pena was at 32.9%. He gets that up and 30 is an excellent target to chase.
You lost me on the 7+ fWAR part. Over the last 10 years, there have only been 4(ish) 7 WAR seasons by short stops.
2019 Bregman - 8.1 (really a 3B)
2018 Lindor - 7.8
2021 Tatis Jr - 7.3 (juicing)
2018 Machado - 7.0
5 fWAR would be a more realistic ceiling for Pena. Even that has only been done 27x by short stops over the last decade. bWAR was a bit more kind of Pena last year.
For me, Pena's path to greatness mainly relies on the swing and miss & discipline at the plate. He can't be bottom 4% in BB%, 18% in Whiff%, and 8% in Chase%.