texasaggie2015 said:

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Counterpoint: It's great background noise during the work day

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Yeah give me all the spring training baseball broadcasts

texasaggie2015 said:

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Counterpoint: It's great background noise during the work day

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Most of the games will be on radio.

Correct, but what else will I use the third monitor on my desk for?

texasaggie2015 said:

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Counterpoint: It's great background noise during the work day

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Yes I agree for radio

But TV is no go for me

70 Ruppenthal
89 Salazar
82 Schreiber
69 Solis
80 Stubbs
63 Tamarez
90 Wagner

Ty Buttrey and Bryan Garcia — two of the four Major League experienced invitees — haven’t received a number yet. Garcia is listed under No. 33 on the Sugar Land roster.

— Kenny Van Doren (@thevandalorian) February 8, 2023

Deluxe said:

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Good. Now let's thank him for accommodating the Astros' wishes with a juicy extension.

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He's an interesting case. We have control of his age 29-31 seasons. Arguably he will be starting on the downhill shortly thereafter. I don't think we really need to extend him but if we do I'm probably only interested in a 4 year deal to get that age 32 season.

Kyle Tucker, Astros go to salary arbitration with $2.5M gap https://t.co/m9vCNtw3ep

— Houston Chronicle (@HoustonChron) February 9, 2023

Farmer1906 said:

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That's like a 3/96 extension. With Nimmo getting 8/162, why should Tucker take 60-70 M less and then hit FA in his 30s?

I think we're going to pay him until like 35 with a similar AAV. Think what the Braves gave Riley.

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6 years would have him hit FA at 32. I would think $25M in 2029 will be a pretty mundane contract, no reason he can't get another 6 year $150M+ easily.

He gets to lock in $130 which is a great payday and while avoiding any risk and grab another multi year contract in 2029.

Yordan did it and I think it is a safer move from player perspective to get locked in and paid sooner.

Eso si, Que es said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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That's like a 3/96 extension. With Nimmo getting 8/162, why should Tucker take 60-70 M less and then hit FA in his 30s?

I think we're going to pay him until like 35 with a similar AAV. Think what the Braves gave Riley.

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6 years would have him hit FA at 32. I would think $25M in 2029 will be a pretty mundane contract, no reason he can't get another 6 year $150M+ easily.

He gets to lock in $130 which is a great payday and while avoiding any risk and grab another multi year contract in 2029.

Yordan did it and I think it is a safer move from player perspective to get locked in and paid sooner.

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I think your underestimating what a 29 year old stud OF would get in FA. 300/10 doesn't seem unrealistic.

If he accepts 6/135 then he'd need someone to offer him 7/200 at 32 to match. That seems less realistic.

You might think it's a great deal but the market dictates otherwise. I'm guessing $200M to get him signed. $180M is likely the bare minimum.

That assumes he would be healthy and productive to command that at 29. I get your point, but that's the trade off.

He's more likely to be healthy in 3 years at 29 vs 6 years at 32, right? Even the safer way has risks of getting the next payday.

so as it stands now...

the Astros have control of Tucker for 2023 (age 26)...2024 (age 27)...and 2025 (age 28).

a 6-year extension...extends control to the 2028 season (age 31).

I don't think Tucker's camp would go for that.

probably would want 8 years to cover up to 2030 (age 33)...and each season in his 30's would be a $30 MM season.

let's say...10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 30, 35, 35 = 8 years at $200 MM

Tucker got stuck behind Reddick and probably feels he should have played all of 2019. 2020 was shortened and then he had a full year in 2021. He barely missed being a super 2 in 2022 so his arbitration got pushed to 2023, after 5 years of pre arbitration.

My opinion is he feels he lost $3M in 2022, which is costing him a few million more in 2023. He probably loves his teammates but feels the front office has jacked him around. I just don't see him signing an extension as he looks forward to the $300M deal Farmer alluded to earlier. The Astros front office have tried to keep him cheap and he feels slighted (true or not), and this arbitration will only add to that feeling as they will try to explain why he isn't worth $7.5m he is requesting. Salary is an emotional subject and I'm guessing he feels he has been burnt at this point.

Here is a good article from last offseason about super 2's projecting Kyle at $3.6M

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/the-value-of-the-mlbpas-super-two-proposal.html

I hope he stays long term, but I can see why he is ready for FA after 5 years pre arb

I would be good with just adding two years to his current contract. That means he would hit free agency at 30 after the 2027 season.

5 years 115-125 MM would be my offer

Didn't we already get told thanks but no thanks on basically that same offer

tjack16 said:

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I would be good with just adding two years to his current contract. That means he would hit free agency at 30 after the 2027 season.

5 years 115-125 MM would be my offer

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5/125 is probably getting closer. Assume 35 in arb over the next 3 years. We're basically offering a 2/90 deal. That is the kind of number that will get someone to stay short-term.

W said:

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so as it stands now...

the Astros have control of Tucker for 2023 (age 26)...2024 (age 27)...and 2025 (age 28).

a 6-year extension...extends control to the 2028 season (age 31).

I don't think Tucker's camp would go for that.

probably would want 8 years to cover up to 2030 (age 33)...and each season in his 30's would be a $30 MM season.

let's say...10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 30, 35, 35 = 8 years at $200 MM

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Yea, ~8/$200mm seems like the right target. I'd do that deal on either side, though I might slightly amend your annual values to 10, 15, 25, 30, 30, 30, 30, 30.

MaxPower said:

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Deluxe said:

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Good. Now let's thank him for accommodating the Astros' wishes with a juicy extension.

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He's an interesting case. We have control of his age 29-31 seasons. Arguably he will be starting on the downhill shortly thereafter. I don't think we really need to extend him but if we do I'm probably only interested in a 4 year deal to get that age 32 season.

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Agreed. He and Javier are interesting cases.

LMJ and Framber are roughly the same age. We extended LMJ through his age 32 season (2026) and he has a little more tread on the tires/more fragility than Framber. I'd be ok extending Framber through his age 33 season (2027) if that's what it takes to get a deal done.

Was there ever a report on the years/money we offered him last season? I can't find any articles that have it (but I am terrible with using google)

From what I've heard, extending Tucker will be nearly impossible. Maybe that changes with the new GM, but that was what I've heard as recently as a month or so ago.