Bagwell needs to sit down and stfu. He had his day. Since when has a hall of famer getting involved in his former team's front office affairs ever ended well?Big Al 1992 said:EastCoastAgNc said:
So help me if they choose ausmus over the other guy, we riot. The fact he would get initial consideration is laughable. If he's seriously getting finalist consideration, it makes me seriously question Jim Cranes judgement
I'm thinking Ausmus is Bagwell's guy. And agree do not want.
***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***
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EastCoastAgNc said:Bagwell needs to sit down and stfu. He had his day. Since when has a hall of famer getting involved in his former team's front office affairs ever ended well?Big Al 1992 said:EastCoastAgNc said:
So help me if they choose ausmus over the other guy, we riot. The fact he would get initial consideration is laughable. If he's seriously getting finalist consideration, it makes me seriously question Jim Cranes judgement
I'm thinking Ausmus is Bagwell's guy. And agree do not want.
Nolan did it right a few times with Arlington & us. But generally, I agree.
I have a hard time believing a team that had positions like "director of decision sciences" would just go with the buddy of a former player over a more qualified candidate.
There was some intrigue earlier this offseason that we might be entering a new era of Astros baseball where personnel decisions would be more influenced by Crane and some seemingly unqualified advisors. He let Click go, gave three year deals to veterans who past GMs may have passed on, and then we were rumored to be in on a bunch of high profile free agents and trade targets.
But sitting here today, the offseason has been pretty basic relative to Astros standards. We let a super expensive free agent walk, addressed a big need at 1B, kept a high lev reliever and retained a LF at a value price. Nothing that really screams "Crane is doing things different now".
This GM decision is perhaps one more litmus test of how Crane wants to see things run. Brown seems like the candidate who will run things the "Astros way" that got us to this point.... focused on scouting, analytics and player development. Willing to spend but not overpay. Aggressive in spots but mostly restrained. Ausmus seems like the guy Crane would put in place if he wants to manage a bigger piece of baseball ops himself.
But sitting here today, the offseason has been pretty basic relative to Astros standards. We let a super expensive free agent walk, addressed a big need at 1B, kept a high lev reliever and retained a LF at a value price. Nothing that really screams "Crane is doing things different now".
This GM decision is perhaps one more litmus test of how Crane wants to see things run. Brown seems like the candidate who will run things the "Astros way" that got us to this point.... focused on scouting, analytics and player development. Willing to spend but not overpay. Aggressive in spots but mostly restrained. Ausmus seems like the guy Crane would put in place if he wants to manage a bigger piece of baseball ops himself.
Billy Wagner's HOF support has risen in recent years. How much closer will he get today to getting the 75 percent in his 8th year on the ballot? pic.twitter.com/gNAsnRgx98
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) January 24, 2023
He deserves the HOF
I mean his stats REALLY improved since 2016, so...
I don't want to be dramatic, but I will. The hiring of something like Ausmus, along with Bagwell & Dusty having Crane's ear, signals the beginning of the end. I am not saying we fall off the map. I am not saying we can't win another title or two. I am not saying they can't make a good signing. I don't think long-term success will be had by guys who aren't at the forefront of analytics and pushing the boundaries of traditional baseball. "Bad" baseball guys when being given the keys to a Ferrari can still drive fast, but that Ferrari ain't gonna hold up forever.Deluxe said:
There was some intrigue earlier this offseason that we might be entering a new era of Astros baseball where personnel decisions would be more influenced by Crane and some seemingly unqualified advisors. He let Click go, gave three year deals to veterans who past GMs may have passed on, and then we were rumored to be in on a bunch of high profile free agents and trade targets.
But sitting here today, the offseason has been pretty basic relative to Astros standards. We let a super expensive free agent walk, addressed a big need at 1B, kept a high lev reliever and retained a LF at a value price. Nothing that really screams "Crane is doing things different now".
This GM decision is perhaps one more litmus test of how Crane wants to see things run. Brown seems like the candidate who will run things the "Astros way" that got us to this point.... focused on scouting, analytics and player development. Willing to spend but not overpay. Aggressive in spots but mostly restrained. Ausmus seems like the guy Crane would put in place if he wants to manage a bigger piece of baseball ops himself.
If you believe relievers should in the HOF then Wagner should be in.EastCoastAgNc said:Billy Wagner's HOF support has risen in recent years. How much closer will he get today to getting the 75 percent in his 8th year on the ballot? pic.twitter.com/gNAsnRgx98
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) January 24, 2023
He deserves the HOF
Guys like Smith, Sutter, and Hoffman are in and I would put Wagner ahead of them all.
ERA+ for RP (ignore the guys with tiny sample sizes like Emmanual Clase)
1. Rivera 205
2. Wagner 187
3. Saito 185 (only 338 IP)
4. Papelbon 177
5. Kimbrel 177 (going down, was 212 from 2010-18)
6. Chapman 167
Farmer1906 said:I don't want to be dramatic, but I will. The hiring of something like Ausmus, along with Bagwell & Dusty having Crane's ear, signals the beginning of the end. I am not saying we fall off the map. I am not saying we can't win another title or two. I am not saying they can't make a good signing. I don't think long-term success will be had by guys who aren't at the forefront of analytics and pushing the boundaries of traditional baseball. "Bad" baseball guys when being given the keys to a Ferrari can still drive fast, but that Ferrari ain't gonna hold up forever.Deluxe said:
There was some intrigue earlier this offseason that we might be entering a new era of Astros baseball where personnel decisions would be more influenced by Crane and some seemingly unqualified advisors. He let Click go, gave three year deals to veterans who past GMs may have passed on, and then we were rumored to be in on a bunch of high profile free agents and trade targets.
But sitting here today, the offseason has been pretty basic relative to Astros standards. We let a super expensive free agent walk, addressed a big need at 1B, kept a high lev reliever and retained a LF at a value price. Nothing that really screams "Crane is doing things different now".
This GM decision is perhaps one more litmus test of how Crane wants to see things run. Brown seems like the candidate who will run things the "Astros way" that got us to this point.... focused on scouting, analytics and player development. Willing to spend but not overpay. Aggressive in spots but mostly restrained. Ausmus seems like the guy Crane would put in place if he wants to manage a bigger piece of baseball ops himself.
Learning the skills needed to lead a front office on the job typically is not a path for success. I have no insight into Bagwell's capability, but I think we've seen what Ausmus does or doesn't bring to the table.
Color me concerned...
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Hmm...Let's see
Should I hire the candidate who's head of scouting for one of the best run organizations in the game right now who's generally considered a HR hire or the guy who has no experience in the front office and flopped as a manager.
What a tough decision.
Should I hire the candidate who's head of scouting for one of the best run organizations in the game right now who's generally considered a HR hire or the guy who has no experience in the front office and flopped as a manager.
What a tough decision.
I wonder if this leak to Ortiz is just a way to 1. get fans excited for Brown and 2. appease Bagwell, but showing private and public (leak) consideration for his buddy Ausmus.
Farmer1906 said:I don't want to be dramatic, but I will. The hiring of something like Ausmus, along with Bagwell & Dusty having Crane's ear, signals the beginning of the end. I am not saying we fall off the map. I am not saying we can't win another title or two. I am not saying they can't make a good signing. I don't think long-term success will be had by guys who aren't at the forefront of analytics and pushing the boundaries of traditional baseball. "Bad" baseball guys when being given the keys to a Ferrari can still drive fast, but that Ferrari ain't gonna hold up forever.Deluxe said:
There was some intrigue earlier this offseason that we might be entering a new era of Astros baseball where personnel decisions would be more influenced by Crane and some seemingly unqualified advisors. He let Click go, gave three year deals to veterans who past GMs may have passed on, and then we were rumored to be in on a bunch of high profile free agents and trade targets.
But sitting here today, the offseason has been pretty basic relative to Astros standards. We let a super expensive free agent walk, addressed a big need at 1B, kept a high lev reliever and retained a LF at a value price. Nothing that really screams "Crane is doing things different now".
This GM decision is perhaps one more litmus test of how Crane wants to see things run. Brown seems like the candidate who will run things the "Astros way" that got us to this point.... focused on scouting, analytics and player development. Willing to spend but not overpay. Aggressive in spots but mostly restrained. Ausmus seems like the guy Crane would put in place if he wants to manage a bigger piece of baseball ops himself.
My only counter to this is my belief that the analytics game will only continue to propel us for so much longer. At some point to stay on top it is going to take paying players more. What I mean is we were able to get where we are because of our core….but that core was not hitting on great late round selections. It was from making great choices at the top of early rounds. Yes we also hit at a higher rate internationally etc but that can not solely build a team either.
We aren't ever going to have an opportunity to have multiple years of early draft picks so we can't solely rely on that to maintain our window the same way we used it to build the window.
Hope what I wrote makes sense, it does in my head
the problem with the Bagwell-types or Ausmus-types...
they tend to love veteran players...and will load up with old guys and bad contracts.
and ignore or let the farm system, scouting, and development fall to pieces
they tend to love veteran players...and will load up with old guys and bad contracts.
and ignore or let the farm system, scouting, and development fall to pieces
the problem with this is that it looks like the opposite happened with Yuli. they did the opposite.W said:
the problem with the Bagwell-types or Ausmus-types...
they tend to love veteran players...and will load up with old guys and bad contracts.
and ignore or let the farm system, scouting, and development fall to pieces
I was thinking (hoping) the same thing.Farmer1906 said:
I wonder if this leak to Ortiz is just a way to 1. get fans excited for Brown and 2. appease Bagwell, but showing private and public (leak) consideration for his buddy Ausmus.
I'm guessing he values Bagwell's input and wants to keep him involved in the organization. Having a legacy franchise hall of famer around the clubhouse and helping the young guys is obviously a good thing. Giving him the task of recruiting Abreu and Contreras this offseason probly made him feel important, as is showing love to one of his buddies who'd like to be GM.
But hopefully Crane does the right thing and gives the keys to an experienced pro.
BMX Bandit said:the problem with this is that it looks like the opposite happened with Yuli. they did the opposite.W said:
the problem with the Bagwell-types or Ausmus-types...
they tend to love veteran players...and will load up with old guys and bad contracts.
and ignore or let the farm system, scouting, and development fall to pieces
Except they signed Abreu to a deal some think is over the top in years for someone who is 36.
Crane is a very smart guy and is the one constant here. I think he's going to make smart hires and decisions. We have withstood the losses of so many key players, both suits and players that I have more confidence in his decisions than I do in anything else.
The analytics angle is also a little overplayed. Obviously it will continue to be an important part of the game (just like most basic Moneyball concepts are), but what we did to get here is now standard fare. And maybe the "new thing" is going to be another element in analytics, but I like bringing guys in from other systems who have been successful and probably bring something new to the table.
But yes, obviously track record of success guy all day long over big reach "buddy hire".
The analytics angle is also a little overplayed. Obviously it will continue to be an important part of the game (just like most basic Moneyball concepts are), but what we did to get here is now standard fare. And maybe the "new thing" is going to be another element in analytics, but I like bringing guys in from other systems who have been successful and probably bring something new to the table.
But yes, obviously track record of success guy all day long over big reach "buddy hire".
I am going to disagree somewhat. One thing we have done that I don't see anyone else doing is that we tapped into a pipeline of arms that most thought too old. We clearly target a fast ball with spin over velo. That's why we have 4 guys in the rotation so cheaply and why we have another 4 moving thru the system (see Deluxe post from a couple of days ago). That's is just 1 unique strategy we've done no one else has. There are probably a dozens more in place that we don't even realize.
I do agree these past strategies become standard until the next things hit. I want to make sure we're doing all we can to be the next thing as often as possible. Or at worst be able to quickly adapt to the newest thing. One example. I think we did a great job loading up the bullpen full of killers. Very Tampa Bay like having 4-5 guys that can throw heat and wipe you out with a slider. But we didn't go overboard and take the ball from our starters too early too often.
I do agree these past strategies become standard until the next things hit. I want to make sure we're doing all we can to be the next thing as often as possible. Or at worst be able to quickly adapt to the newest thing. One example. I think we did a great job loading up the bullpen full of killers. Very Tampa Bay like having 4-5 guys that can throw heat and wipe you out with a slider. But we didn't go overboard and take the ball from our starters too early too often.
You're not disagreeing with me, you're helping make my point.
Those things were all great, but also things that everyone else is now going to be emulating. Like I said, it doesn't mean we need to do a 180 and hire an old school meathead, but at this point is seems obvious to me that Crane is a smart enough guy and understands enough about what has gotten us here to continue making good hires that are on the cutting edge and not just perpetuating things that everyone else is already on.
Those things were all great, but also things that everyone else is now going to be emulating. Like I said, it doesn't mean we need to do a 180 and hire an old school meathead, but at this point is seems obvious to me that Crane is a smart enough guy and understands enough about what has gotten us here to continue making good hires that are on the cutting edge and not just perpetuating things that everyone else is already on.
Farmer1906 said:I don't want to be dramatic, but I will. The hiring of something like Ausmus, along with Bagwell & Dusty having Crane's ear, signals the beginning of the end. I am not saying we fall off the map. I am not saying we can't win another title or two. I am not saying they can't make a good signing. I don't think long-term success will be had by guys who aren't at the forefront of analytics and pushing the boundaries of traditional baseball. "Bad" baseball guys when being given the keys to a Ferrari can still drive fast, but that Ferrari ain't gonna hold up forever.Deluxe said:
There was some intrigue earlier this offseason that we might be entering a new era of Astros baseball where personnel decisions would be more influenced by Crane and some seemingly unqualified advisors. He let Click go, gave three year deals to veterans who past GMs may have passed on, and then we were rumored to be in on a bunch of high profile free agents and trade targets.
But sitting here today, the offseason has been pretty basic relative to Astros standards. We let a super expensive free agent walk, addressed a big need at 1B, kept a high lev reliever and retained a LF at a value price. Nothing that really screams "Crane is doing things different now".
This GM decision is perhaps one more litmus test of how Crane wants to see things run. Brown seems like the candidate who will run things the "Astros way" that got us to this point.... focused on scouting, analytics and player development. Willing to spend but not overpay. Aggressive in spots but mostly restrained. Ausmus seems like the guy Crane would put in place if he wants to manage a bigger piece of baseball ops himself.
Completely agree. But the Ferrari analogy is that a random guy driving a Ferrari fast is likely to drive 180 around a curve and roll it, breaking it into smithereens all because he has no clue how to drive that car at its limits. He's got a license but he's not a trained race car driver. And that is where I think this is headed. An owner hands on with his buddies in his ear almost never works. And mostly it's a train wreck.
A's and Nationals at 250/1 to win the division. That's just insane when you're only one of five teams.....Big Al 1992 said:
Also 13/2 to win the whole thing
3/1 to win AL
Or worse, he hands the keys to himself.
Which is my only real worry.
Which is my only real worry.
Brad Ausmus is a candidate for Astros GM and @Castellani2014 is confused pic.twitter.com/mtuPKfbz9m
— Starting 9 (@Starting9) January 24, 2023
In case you're wondering...this is why we call him the 𝕃𝕖𝕠𝕟 𝕂𝕚𝕟𝕘. 👑#RisingStars pic.twitter.com/SxMRZHF7O5
— Sugar Land Space Cowboys (@SLSpaceCowboys) January 24, 2023
Just saw that Leon video. Hope he can can some strides at the plate this year. Oozing with raw ability. Seems like worst case is he's a versatile utility player (like you said).
Deluxe said:
Just saw that Leon video. Hope he can can some strides at the plate this year. Oozing with raw ability. Seems like worst case is he's a versatile utility player (like you said).
Gives me Siri vibes. And I don't mean that as a bad thing. Siri is elite on D and running. Just incomplete at the plate. But Siri is 3 years older and didn't have a gap in development/playing.
Edit: Adding some stats for show how good Leon.
In that video, Leon guns it 98 MPH home. We don't know if its 98.3 or 97.9. we also don't know if that is his hardest throw but assume it's 98 and it is. That would put him tied in 25th (with Bellinger) in OFers in 2022. Jose Siri is 26th at 97.8. Those guys average 86.9 (Belli - 97th) & 93.2 (Siri - 15th). its possible Leon had just one great throw like Bellinger did, but I think the more likely scenario Leon has a top 30ish arm.
In that video, Leon runs 30.1 f/s on the fly ball. If that is his avg sprint speed, he's in the 7th-11th range. For comparison, Siri was 30.4 last season and the leader, Corbin Carrol, was 30.7. The fastest Astros was Jeremy Pena at 29.4 which is tied for 28th.
Leon is an on base god
That's the difference between him and Siri
Leon walks 500 miles
That's the difference between him and Siri
Leon walks 500 miles
Trade news: The Boston Red Sox are acquiring shortstop Adalberto Mondesi from the Kansas City Royals, sources tell ESPN. Deal is done. Players are being informed.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 24, 2023
Looks like the Royals are selling
The Miami Marlins have stopped “any aggressive pursuit” of Yuli Gurriel, per the Miami Herald.
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) January 24, 2023
I wonder if he ends up with the Twins.
Ausmus being a finalist is a big red flag for me. I don't hate Dana Brown as someone with a strong scouting and development background and he would be the obvious pick here.spadilly said:Regardless of what the Astros decide, I’m confident Jim Crane will end up with a great GM. People I trust tell me it’s between Dana Brown and Brad Ausmus, the former unofficial Astros captain.
— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) January 24, 2023
Ausmus? Do not want.
But the big takeaway is that Crane and Bagwell are going to have their thumbs on the scale moving forward. I am very wary of owners who start getting involved in ops. Thats not what got us here and Im skeptical it will work out in our favor.
We need to make the right calls on a couple big purchases and a couple rentals to maximize our performance over the next 3 years. After that we will enter rebuilding mode regardless, IMHO.
Honestly we skipped over or delayed one "dip" which is remarkable, but I'm pretty skeptical that we will stave another dip off much later than 2025.
Honestly we skipped over or delayed one "dip" which is remarkable, but I'm pretty skeptical that we will stave another dip off much later than 2025.
Do you all think candidates were scared away by Crane not bringing back Click after the World Series win? Brown seems like the only serious candidate between him, Hill, Evans, and Ausmus.
A good defender that has slowed down a little with age (injury maybe?), but he's terrible at the plate. Probably cost Boston almost nothing to acquire.EastCoastAgNc said:Trade news: The Boston Red Sox are acquiring shortstop Adalberto Mondesi from the Kansas City Royals, sources tell ESPN. Deal is done. Players are being informed.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 24, 2023
Looks like the Royals are selling
Could be.TRM said:
Do you all think candidates were scared away by Crane not bringing back Click after the World Series win? Brown seems like the only serious candidate between him, Hill, Evans, and Ausmus.
A place where by winning a WS you're just doing what 2 others have recently done and where the owner has strong opinions and an itchy trigger finger. It's still a great job, but you can imagine where if a hot up-and-comer has a choice, they'd rather go somewhere they can make a name for themselves and have an unopposed voice.
Can confirm that the Astros have spoken to Guardians AGM James Harris about their vacant GM job, as @JonHeyman said.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) January 24, 2023
Absolutely for bringing anybody from the Cleveland org over here. They have a loaded farm system and have been successful for 8-10 years running with arguably the worst ownership group in baseball.
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