***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***

1,051,739 Views | 12340 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Beat40
Harry Dunne
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In reply to Beat40 • 10:28a, 1/11/23
Beat40 said:
San Fran's front office is former Astros management and knew about that injury. I think owner got cold feet over the cost.
Something a lot of folks are overlooking are the medicals possibly preventing the Giants/Mets from insuring the contract or making it cost-prohibitive. Organizations take out insurance on contracts. Many companies won't insure pre-existing conditions and if they do, it will be an outrageous premium. Knowing about a condition and knowing how insurance companies will respond to it are two different things.

That said, terrible form to announce the deal before this was all squared away. I have no problem with the owner(s) getting cold feet once they realized that they were going to be risking and/or spending a lot more than the outrageous amount they already thought they were spending.

The only problem I have is the terrible form of announcing the deals before they had all of this stuff squared away.
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DrZ
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10:30a, 1/11/23
AG
The fact that the long contract length appeared to be the most important aspect of the negotiations might indicate that Carlos is worried about his ankle as well. He might feel it coming on. He knows this is the last one
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EastCoastAgNc
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10:31a, 1/11/23
AG

Steve Cohen right now:

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Farmer1906
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In reply to DrZ • 10:40a, 1/11/23
AG
DrZ said:
The fact that the long contract length appeared to be the most important aspect of the negotiations might indicate that Carlos is worried about his ankle as well. He might feel it coming on. He knows this is the last one
m
That how you get the most money. Would you rather have 10/300 of 8/270? What are the odds at the end of that deal you can get more than 2/30? Probably very unlikely.
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All I do is Nguyen
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10:40a, 1/11/23
Something random i was thinking about while watching the no hitter in game 5, with the shift being banned will we see hardly any no hitters going forward?

A few of the outs were made simply because of the shift in that game. and it got me thinking.
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dshedd41
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:47a, 1/11/23
S
https://danoshedd.substack.com/p/ryan-pressly-ranked-6th-on-mlbs-best?sd=pf
Gig’em Aggies!
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to All I do is Nguyen • 10:48a, 1/11/23
All I do is Nguyen said:
Something random i was thinking about while watching the no hitter in game 5, with the shift being banned will we see hardly any no hitters going forward?

A few of the outs were made simply because of the shift in that game. and it got me thinking.
There have probably been 300 no hitters with no shift employed, so I don't think it's going to make a huge difference.
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McInnis
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 10:58a, 1/11/23
AG
I wonder how many single pitcher no-hitters we'll ever see again? Starting pitchers going nine innings is starting to seem almost as rare as no-hitters used to be.
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Beat40
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 11:23a, 1/11/23
Harry Dunne said:
Beat40 said:
Ag_07 said:
Twins coming out like bandits on this one!

Had him from year to year for $35mm but now have him locked in for 6 years at $33mm.

They played this one pretty well.


I don't think I the Twins did anything at all.
Not in the traditional sense, but being gracious and not burning bridges even when things look like they didn't work out is not how every organization handles things. Good for them for taking the high road and parting in a way that made Carlos feel welcome coming back.


Absolutely!
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Beat40
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 11:26a, 1/11/23
Harry Dunne said:
Beat40 said:
San Fran's front office is former Astros management and knew about that injury. I think owner got cold feet over the cost.
Something a lot of folks are overlooking are the medicals possibly preventing the Giants/Mets from insuring the contract or making it cost-prohibitive. Organizations take out insurance on contracts. Many companies won't insure pre-existing conditions and if they do, it will be an outrageous premium. Knowing about a condition and knowing how insurance companies will respond to it are two different things.

That said, terrible form to announce the deal before this was all squared away. I have no problem with the owner(s) getting cold feet once they realized that they were going to be risking and/or spending a lot more than the outrageous amount they already thought they were spending.

The only problem I have is the terrible form of announcing the deals before they had all of this stuff squared away.


Yeah, I get the insurance angle too.

They were willing to pay Carlos $350M, or whatever the amount was. What would the insurance premium have to be to cause you to nix the deal if you're willing to spend $350M?

Edit for I don't really think San Fran really did anything wrong other than announce the deal and all of that before getting everything squared away. Seems more like mismanagement to me.

However, with the Mets, and this is probably my bias from knowing how Cohen ran his first hedge fund company, I do think they went into it more wide-eyed with the intent of taking advantage of the situation. Until the medicals come out, I will believe Cohen swooped in so quickly to try to take all the leverage away from Carlos and get him on the super cheap. I will believe he thought he could back Correa into a corner and essentially make him take whatever deal they would offer him.
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to McInnis • 11:52a, 1/11/23
McInnis said:
I wonder how many single pitcher no-hitters we'll ever see again? Starting pitchers going nine innings is starting to seem almost as rare as no-hitters used to be.
Yeah good point. I remember it was such a rarity when Oswalt & co. threw that combined no-hitter, but now more of them are combined than not...

But in 2021 there were surprisingly 7 solo NH and only 2 combined so I think it's still going to happen because if a guy has no-hit stuff there's a decent chance he's going to get through 9 in 110 pitches.

With Javier, he has only gone over 100 pitches 3x in his entire career (one of them was the NYY no-hitter), but as he gains control, experience and endurance and now that he's been part of a couple, I expect he'll get to the point where he's actively trying to pitch a CG no-hitter and goes after guys the way he needs to and he will eventually get one.

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JCA1
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11:52a, 1/11/23
AG
I agree with others who said that this due diligence would ideally be done long before you announce a deal. Having said that, knowing a guy had a prior injury is a different animal from having an orthopedic (or whoever) review the medical and make their best guess on how that part of the body will hold up over the next 10 years or so, whether it is likely to become arthritic, etc. Reading the tea leaves, even if they were aware of the prior injury, it sounds like what caught both the Giants and Mets off guard was a pretty pessimistic long term prognosis for it.
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Farmer1906
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12:22p, 1/11/23
AG
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:26p, 1/11/23
Very true, and I would not have hated that.

But hopefully Peña + whatever else we spend that money on is way > Correa.
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Beat40
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 12:31p, 1/11/23
Harry Dunne said:
Very true, and I would not have hated that.

But hopefully Peña + whatever else we spend that money on is way > Correa.


Agreed!

I'm really excited for Pena's second season. That dude definitely rose to the occasion last year.
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to Beat40 • 12:34p, 1/11/23
When you're trying to insure a 13 year contract and the doctors say (speculation, obviously), "based on history and the record with this type of injury, we think this guy has 7-8 more years of productive baseball left"...

As an insurance company, how much do you think you'd charge in order to guarantee that you came out ahead?

I think there's a good chance insurance companies might have just refused to insure the contract past a certain term. Like a salvage title vehicle where you better get such a good deal that you're OK with the risk.
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W
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 1:15p, 1/11/23
AG
yes, the underwriters at Lloyd's of London are not stupid.

the deductible will be several million dollars...and so will the premium...to insure a contract in the neighborhood of $30 MM.

and one thing that folks tend to forget...the insurance only pays if the player misses the entire season...like JV in 2021.

if the player plays the first month of the season (and gets hurt) or attempts a come back in September...the policy does not pay
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W
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1:18p, 1/11/23
AG
and going back to Correa...like I've speculated about Springer...

Carlos could be back in Houston for the final 1 or 2 years of his contract.

especially if the Astros and Bregman cannot reach agreement after 2024
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Deluxe
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1:35p, 1/11/23
AG
Bored at work today, so I did some investigating on our pitching prospect pipeline. We've got some recent college draftees that seem alright, but the ones that raise my eyebrows are international signees from the Dominican Republic:


Alimber Santa, 19, RHP
2020 international signing ($75k bonus)
Current level: A (Fayetteville)

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 40

Santa signed for $75,000 out of the Dominican Republic in February 2020 and advanced to the United States by the end of his pro debut the following summer. He opened this season in Single-A but faced just three batters in an April appearance before going on the shelf for four months with triceps soreness. When he returned to the mound in August, his fastball touched 102 mph in his second outing in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League.

Apparently he impressed at spring training last year.


Miguel Ullola, 20, RHP
2021 international signing ($75k bonus)
Current level: A (Fayetteville)

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 40 | Overall: 40

The Astros have had a lot of success signing older international pitchers to modest bonuses. Their latest candidate is Ullola, who turned pro for $75,000 as an 18-year-old in January 2021. He came to the United States at the end of his pro debut that summer and has dominated Single-A hitters this season while relying mostly on his fastball.

Ullola sits at 93-95 mph and touches 98 mph with a heater that may be more notable for its flat approach angle and its carry than its velocity. Reminiscent of Cristian Javier when Javier was climbing through the system, he can throw fastballs two-thirds of the time and hitters still can't touch it. His second-best offering is a short slider more impressive for its upper-80s velo than its movement.


Misael Tamarez, 22, RHP
2019 international signing ($15k bonus)
Current level: AAA (Sugar Land)

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 40 | Overall: 40

The Astros have repeatedly hit on signing older pitchers for small bonuses on the international market, uncovering Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez. Tamarez may follow the same path after signing for $15,000 out of the Dominican as a 19-year-old in March 2019. He made his U.S. debut four months later and impressed at two Class A levels in 2021, whiffing 103 in 76 2/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA.

Tamarez's fastball parked in the low 90s during instructional league in the fall of 2020, then jumped to the mid-90s and touched 99 mph last season. His heater has a flat approach angle and good carry up in the zone, and it plays well in tandem with a mid-80s slider that overmatched lower-level right-handed hitters. He also can flash a solid changeup with fade and mix in a power curveball with more depth than his slider.
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3B Paul 97
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In reply to Deluxe • 1:47p, 1/11/23
AG
Are we sure this is not the same guy with 3 different birth certificates?

Surprised to see an overall score of 40 with some of the other measures.
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Deluxe
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In reply to 3B Paul 97 • 1:51p, 1/11/23
AG
3B Paul 97 said:
Surprised to see an overall score of 40 with some of the other measures.
Good observation. Those grades are from MLB pipeline. I'm guessing better/more advanced ones are out there.
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linkdude
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2:36p, 1/11/23
AG
Tucker and Bregs leading the pack in terms of selectiveness.
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Farmer1906
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3:37p, 1/11/23
AG
Did the way Correa's FA was handled open pandora's box of owner collusion?

Come to an agreement.
Balk after the physical
Cut the player's value significantly
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Farmer1906
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3:51p, 1/11/23
AG
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MAROON
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In reply to linkdude • 3:59p, 1/11/23
AG
linkdude said:
Tucker and Bregs leading the pack in terms of selectiveness.
can't believe Winker is #2. he was freaking terrible last year for the M's....and my fantasy team.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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MAROON
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:00p, 1/11/23
AG
that's what Courts are for, I guess.

Still not sure that he doesn't have a claim against the Mets.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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n_touch
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In reply to MAROON • 4:04p, 1/11/23
MAROON said:
that's what Courts are for, I guess.

Still not sure that he doesn't have a claim against the Mets.
There was talk that Cohen messed up by commenting on it before it was done. I wonder if that will play out into something.
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Farmer1906
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4:46p, 1/11/23
AG


Hard to pick a duo on our team. Tucker, Altuve, Abreu have arguments to be apart of the Astros duo.
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Ag_07
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4:54p, 1/11/23
AG
Tatis isn't even gonna play 1/4 of the season.
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Farmer1906
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5:07p, 1/11/23
AG


Turner to Rojas. Yikes.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 5:45p, 1/11/23
AG
Should we know who this is?
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bearkatag15
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5:47p, 1/11/23
AG
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Beat40
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 5:59p, 1/11/23
Farmer1906 said:
Did the way Correa's FA was handled open pandora's box of owner collusion?

Come to an agreement.
Balk after the physical
Cut the player's value significantly


I can't imagine they would even think about any sort of collusion. They wouldn't be that stupid with the current anti-trust exemption status they have. It cannot be overstated how much of a colossal mistake that would be if owners did collude.
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Beat40
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In reply to n_touch • 6:04p, 1/11/23
n_touch said:
MAROON said:
that's what Courts are for, I guess.

Still not sure that he doesn't have a claim against the Mets.
There was talk that Cohen messed up by commenting on it before it was done. I wonder if that will play out into something.


Carlos would have to prove the Mets intentionally gave him an offer in order to claim something related to the physical for the purpose of hurting his reputation to drive his value down. Don't see how Carlos could possibly provide evidence of that.

Do I think that's what the Mets did? I think it's like 50/50 that's what they did. But as I said before, I'm probably biased based on how I know Cohen ran his first hedge fund company. They certainly could be on the up and up.
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Beat40
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In reply to Ag_07 • 6:05p, 1/11/23
Ag_07 said:
Tatis isn't even gonna play 1/4 of the season.


And maybe not Trout.
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