Ag_07 said:

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What was great about Yordan's bomb was that it was the bottom of the 6th yet everyone knew it was pretty much over for the Phils. It was a dagger in the 6th

Astros dugout knew it, Phils dugout knew it, fans knew it, announcers knew it.

They way our BP was locked in the Phils weren't coming back from that. Hell Schwarber knew it when he tried to bunt for a hit.

The call of 'This game has turned upside down' was absolutely perfect because it really did. It was over right there in the 6th inning.

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This is a great point. Once he hit that homerun we all felt it was just a matter of time, even though they still had 3 at bats.

Wabs said:

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I was at game 6 and I've never heard MMP as loud as it was after Yordan's HR. The place absolutely exploded. There was definitely a feeling that we'd had just sealed the deal on our 2nd WS.

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I concur. It was second only to Nebraska '10 at Kyle in my experiences. So loud it felt like MMP was moving.

Let's see what it's going to take to keep Breggy based on this new Devers signing.

On paper, they're fairly similar players.
OPS+ / Games Played
Last 4 years: 132 / 510 v 138 / 444
Last 2 years: 137 / 297 v 125 / 246
Last year: 141 / 141 v 133 / 155

Devers is 26 with 1 more year on control. He agreed to 17.5 for 2023 then a day later agreed to a 10/313.5 deal.

Let's assume someone will pay Bregman to age 37 just like Devers. But since Bregman will be 31, it'll be fewer prime years, so knockoff ~10% of the AAV and assume the market doesn't keep exploding.

If Bregman continues to play how he's been and stays fairly healthy, I think his deal is going to be around 7/200. If he were a FA this year, meaning he never signed the earlier extension, I think he would have sniffed 300 M. If he is less healthy or regresses to 20/21 then he might get something more similar to 7/175 (Semien). On the flip side, he is a Boras client. If he wants to maximize $ then maybe someone will pay him to age 40. Lower the AAV and tack on a few years 10/250.

Regardless of which path happens, I cannot see Crane forking over the money. This screams Springer all over again. I agree with the philosophy to not pay guys for what they've done, but what they will do. I can stomach 8-10 year mega deals for guys age 25, 26, 27, and maybe 28. Any older and it feels like a terrible investment.

I'm interested to see how Bregman handles his next contract. When he signed his first extension, it seemed like he effectively lowered his "ceiling" on career earnings in exchange for locking in $100 million before he turned 25. Reasonable trade-off IMO.

When he becomes a FA after 2024, will be looking for the max payday? With Bregman, I think it remains to be seen. My hunch is that he's more on the LMJ "bury me in the H" side of the spectrum than the JV/Correa "extract every last dollar" side.

A Semien-esque deal "feels" about right in terms of something that Bregman and Crane could mutually agree on. Unlike Correa and Springer, I think Bregman would consider taking a marginal discount to stay in Houston and cement his legacy as a "centerpiece" of our decade+ long dynasty.

When he and Altuve were the ones who "apologized" on behalf of the team for the sign stealing stuff, part of me felt like it was a message that they were the two Astros lifers on the roster (offensively anyway). IMO Crane will make a big effort to ensure both retire as Astros.

Could be very wrong on all that though.

Wabs said:

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I was at game 6 and I've never heard MMP as loud as it was after Yordan's HR. The place absolutely exploded. There was definitely a feeling that we'd had just sealed the deal on our 2nd WS.

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It was an interesting sequence to say the least.

I kept having 2019 WS g7 flashbacks. We took the early 1-0 lead, then it felt like whoever scored the next run had an extremely good chance. When Correa hit that RBI single to give us the 2-0 lead, with Greinke cruising and Cole ready to finish it off, I felt like we couldn't lose. That feeling flipped 180 degrees instantly when Kendrick's ball his the foul pole.

Fast forward to 2022 WS g6, with Framber and Wheeler cruising, it felt like a "whoever scores first probably wins" type of game. So when Schwarber went yard to give them a 1-0 lead, I was absolutely crushed. The thought of losing games 6 and 7 at home to lose the WS again was way too real.

The bottom of the sixth transpired in such a cool way though. Maldy with the heady HBP. Altuve FC and effectively replaced him as a base runner. Then gets to third on Pena's single. Yordan comes up and all I was thinking was "please please please just hit a fly ball and tie this up". Felt like if we didn't convert that opportunity, g7 was inevitable.

When the ball came off Yordan's bat, I was instantly relieved. I didn't even consider in that split second that it might be a dinger. Just relief that we at least tied it back up with a sac fly (worst case). When Vierling kept going back and looked up, best feeling ever.

Deluxe said:

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I'm interested to see how Bregman handles his next contract. When he signed his first extension, it seemed like he effectively lowered his "ceiling" on career earnings in exchange for locking in $100 million before he turned 25. Reasonable trade-off IMO.

When he becomes a FA after 2024, will be looking for the max payday? With Bregman, I think it remains to be seen. My hunch is that he's more on the LMJ "bury me in the H" side of the spectrum than the JV/Correa "extract every last dollar" side.

A Semien-esque deal "feels" about right in terms of something that Bregman and Crane could mutually agree on. Unlike Correa and Springer, I think Bregman would consider taking a marginal discount to stay in Houston and cement his legacy as a "centerpiece" of our decade+ long dynasty.

When he and Altuve were the ones who "apologized" on behalf of the team for the sign stealing stuff, part of me felt like it was a message that they were the two Astros lifers on the roster (offensively anyway). IMO Crane will make a big effort to ensure both retire as Astros.

Could be very wrong on all that though.

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I have been saying this all along. He seems to be one that wants to the one of the next Biggio and Bagwell. He will never have to worry about money either way.

With that said Trade him.

Stranger things have happened. Just look at Jose Ramirez and his 7/141 deal. He probably left 150 M or more on the table.

If Bregman can actually get the 250 M 10-year mammoth deal, he'd have to be comfortable turning down 75 M to take a Semien kind of deal. AND Crane would have to be willing to do it.

One thing to consider, the tax "cap" will be in the 240s when he hits free agency. The top half of the league seems to be into spending more and more. In 2019, our 209 M tax payroll would put us 4th behind Boston, Chicago, & New York, just 35 M from the top. Now in 2023, 209 M is 12th in baseball and 82 M behind the Yankees (ignoring the ridiculous Mets). If Crane wants to continue to hover around the top 10, he might have to increase payroll and make some of these deals.

For me personally the greatest call, which I didn't hear live because I was at the game, but I've heard dozens of times rewatching the highlights:

"And Terrance Kiel got it, and the Aggies have got it"

That was the loudest sporting event I've ever been to and I doubt anything will ever compare

Farmer1906 said:

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Stranger things have happened. Just look at Jose Ramirez and his 7/141 deal. He probably left 150 M or more on the table.

If Bregman can actually get the 250 M 10-year mammoth deal, he'd have to be comfortable turning down 75 M to take a Semien kind of deal. AND Crane would have to be willing to do it.

One thing to consider, the tax "cap" will be in the 240s when he hits free agency. The top half of the league seems to be into spending more and more. In 2019, our 209 M tax payroll would put us 4th behind Boston, Chicago, & New York, just 35 M from the top. Now in 2023, 209 M is 12th in baseball and 82 M behind the Yankees (ignoring the ridiculous Mets). If Crane wants to continue to hover around the top 10, he might have to increase payroll and make some of these deals.

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IMO Crane will be fine with committing the AAV necessary to keep Bregman and increasing payroll in light of higher tax thresholds.

The issue will be more committing 7+ years to a guy who's 31 and has had some injury issues. The market is willing to do it but not sure if the Astros are. Crane rightly isn't going to make a habit of giving out those kind of deals but he might make an exception or two. Bregman could be that exception. Healthy 2023 and 2024 campaigns will go a long way in this regard.

"First and 15 deep sideline roooouuuuuutttteeee…."

Ag_07 said:

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Big Al 1992 said:

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That made it even more epic - if it had been a line drive barely over right field or a cheap Crawford Box special - still great - but to have such a mammoth, towering, majestic absolute bomb totally crushed Phils.

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And off their best BP arm.

They knew that they had to get out of that with at least a tie and they fired all their bullets.

IIRC Smoltz even said "The Phils have to be thinking at worst we have to get out of here giving up only one' then next pitch chaos ensued.

It was just so perfect the way it all set up.

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Smoltz, a HOFer who played in a zillion playoff games, being absolutely stunned by how far the ball went is the best.

The Porkchop Express said:

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I still have to posture that the crowd has never been louder than when Bregman plated the game-winning RBi in Game 5 of the 2017 WS. I've watched it enough and even just listened to it with my eyes closed. We still weren't entirely sure we could win the World Series even as we rallied over and over again in that game. The noise is explosive as Fisher rounds third, but when he scores and the crowd realizes the Dodgers can't come back, it goes to deafening.

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This was the loudest I've ever heard in a stadium. The crowd was deafening. I went to Game 5 by myself, and my seat happened to be next to another Aggie. I mentioned to him that Hinch should pinch run Fisher, and he did. Everyone was so invested in that game. It had so many emotional pulls -- being down early to Kershaw, then tying it, and then the back and forth. The walk-off was cathartic.

agproducer said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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I still have to posture that the crowd has never been louder than when Bregman plated the game-winning RBi in Game 5 of the 2017 WS. I've watched it enough and even just listened to it with my eyes closed. We still weren't entirely sure we could win the World Series even as we rallied over and over again in that game. The noise is explosive as Fisher rounds third, but when he scores and the crowd realizes the Dodgers can't come back, it goes to deafening.

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This was the loudest I've ever heard in a stadium. The crowd was deafening. I went to Game 5 by myself, and my seat happened to be next to another Aggie. I mentioned to him that Hinch should pinch run Fisher, and he did. Everyone was so invested in that game. It had so many emotional pulls -- being down early to Kershaw, then tying it, and then the back and forth. The walk-off was cathartic.

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While Bregman did his job there, I always saw that play and though that the throw from LF by Andre Ethier was tremendously weak. He's out there as defensive replacement and frankly made a crappy throw. He fielded it cleanly but didn't put anything on the throw. If he makes a strong throw, Fisher is out easily.

Yep. In the stands, we knew once they put Ethier in there, that there was a good opportunity to run on him.

https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/astros-framber-valdez-cristian-javier-17690773.php

Chronicle writer attempts to project extension values for Framber and Javier. Would you do either of these?

• Framber - 6/$120mm (tacks on three additional years to his remaining three years of club control)
• Javier - 4/$75mm (tacks on one additional year to his remaining three years of club control)

Keep in mind Fisher had elite speed. I want to say he was ~ 30 f/s on this particular play.

He's almost 1/3 of the way down when the ball is being released.


He beats the ball by a mile. Even a perfect throw may not have been good enough.

Deluxe said:

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https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/astros-framber-valdez-cristian-javier-17690773.php

Chronicle writer attempts to project extension values for Framber and Javier. Would you do either of these?

• Framber - 6/$120mm (tacks on three additional years to his remaining three years of club control)
• Javier - 4/$75mm (tacks on one additional year to his remaining three years of club control)

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Yes.

Deluxe said:

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https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/astros-framber-valdez-cristian-javier-17690773.php

Chronicle writer attempts to project extension values for Framber and Javier. Would you do either of these?

• Framber - 6/$120mm (tacks on three additional years to his remaining three years of club control)
• Javier - 4/$75mm (tacks on one additional year to his remaining three years of club control)

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Deluxe said:

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https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/astros-framber-valdez-cristian-javier-17690773.php

Chronicle writer attempts to project extension values for Framber and Javier. Would you do either of these?

• Framber - 6/$120mm (tacks on three additional years to his remaining three years of club control)
• Javier - 4/$75mm (tacks on one additional year to his remaining three years of club control)

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This guy is using some seriously flawed logic. He's using free-agent deals for an extension buying out 3 years of control.

If Framber makes 30 M in 3 years of arbitration, then we'd be paying him 3/90. That seems very rich when most other guys are getting are making much less. Musgrove 20 AAV, Darvish 21 M, Castillo 21.6 M, Gausman 22 M, Ray 23 M, Corbin 23.3 M, Wheeler 23.6 M, Stroman 23.6 M, Rodon 27 M. But there are guys topping that as well. Scherzer 43.3 M, Verlander 43.3 M, deGrom 37 M, Cole 36 M, Bauer 34 M.

I made a post a few days back on this.

Quote:

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Player / Years / Total $ / AAV / Age Signed / Years Under Control at Time of Signing
Sandy Alcantara / 5 / 56 M / 11.2 M / 25 / 3
Luis Castillo / 5 / 108 M / 21.6 M / 29 / 1
Jose Berrios / 7 / 131 M / 18.7 M / 27 / 1 - woof!
Lance McCullers / 5 / 85 M / 17 M / 26 / 1 (didn't kick in until after 21 so basically 6/91.5 M)
Joe Musgrove / 5 / 100 M / 20 M / 29 / 0.5 (midseason deal, really 0)

I think you could buy out their 3 years of arbitration, then give him 20 M per for 3 seasons. It could come to something like 6/80 (13.3 M). It's more than Sandy by far and keeps the AAV competitive with the guys who got deals later on.

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I think I underestimated his arbitration total, but 20-25 M per in extension years probably makes more sense.

6/98 M is probably a more realistic kind of deal that makes sense for both sides.

The logic gets even worse for Javier. Assume he makes 30 M as well in arbitration. We'd be giving him a 1/45 M deal. A higher AAV for that year than deGrom, Scherzer, or Verlander.

I think whatever makes sense for Framber, probably makes sense for Javier too as far as evaluation. The only difference is age. Javier may want 1-2 years so he can still hit the open market at a young age. Framber may be willing to take a little less for more year since he's older.

Deluxe said:

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Wabs said:

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I was at game 6 and I've never heard MMP as loud as it was after Yordan's HR. The place absolutely exploded. There was definitely a feeling that we'd had just sealed the deal on our 2nd WS.

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It was an interesting sequence to say the least.

I kept having 2019 WS g7 flashbacks. We took the early 1-0 lead, then it felt like whoever scored the next run had an extremely good chance. When Correa hit that RBI single to give us the 2-0 lead, with Greinke cruising and Cole ready to finish it off, I felt like we couldn't lose. That feeling flipped 180 degrees instantly when Kendrick's ball his the foul pole.

Fast forward to 2022 WS g6, with Framber and Wheeler cruising, it felt like a "whoever scores first probably wins" type of game. So when Schwarber went yard to give them a 1-0 lead, I was absolutely crushed. The thought of losing games 6 and 7 at home to lose the WS again was way too real.

The bottom of the sixth transpired in such a cool way though. Maldy with the heady HBP. Altuve FC and effectively replaced him as a base runner. Then gets to third on Pena's single. Yordan comes up and all I was thinking was "please please please just hit a fly ball and tie this up". Felt like if we didn't convert that opportunity, g7 was inevitable.

When the ball came off Yordan's bat, I was instantly relieved. I didn't even consider in that split second that it might be a dinger. Just relief that we at least tied it back up with a sac fly (worst case). When Vierling kept going back and looked up, best feeling ever.

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I had no worries after how they responded in Philly after Game 3. This team had been swept once all season and never played poorly for any long stretches despite the huge targets on their backs and having a big lead in the standings. Just a bunch of locked in stone cold killers with extra motivation to finish the job.

I don't know if MLB ranked it in their best games of 2022 (though it should have been top 5), but the Saturday night contest in Baltimore convinced me no one was beating the Astros. That was a huge series for the Orioles, and they had dominated us up to that point in the season. Then the good guys flipped the switch that night in a crazy slugfest game and won despite getting behind several times. By the time the Astros won again the following day, they had basically eliminated the hottest team in baseball.

cc10106 said:

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I had no worries after how they responded in Philly after Game 3. This team had been swept once all season and never played poorly for any long stretches despite the huge targets on their backs and having a big lead in the standings. Just a bunch of locked in stone cold killers with extra motivation to finish the job.

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I hear you but I felt similarly about the 2019 team given how we played all year and how we responded in WAS after losing the first two games at MMP. Obviously we were better than the Phillies and no hitting them in g4 after their g3 surge was a total tea-bagging, but nothing is guaranteed in baseball. It made me appreciate it even more when we crossed the finish line though.

07ag said:

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this was also epically loud in the stadium, though, with the elation of watching the hr my memory is just silence for the first few seconds

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I was there for this one. Ranked right up there with the 1987 game vs longhorns in terms of how loud the crowd was. And Joe Buck had the perfect call in the TV side: "Altuve. Has just sent the Astros. To the world series!!""

Farmer1906 said:

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I think whatever makes sense for Framber, probably makes sense for Javier too as far as evaluation. The only difference is age. Javier may want 1-2 years so he can still hit the open market at a young age. Framber may be willing to take a little less for more year since he's older.

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I should have read the article more closely before I posted that. His logic is kind of embarrassing haha.

Despite having the same amount of team control has Javier, Framber is actually going into his second year of arb because he was a super 2. Framber is projected ~$8mm in 2023 per Spotrac. If he pitches at an ace caliber level the next two years, that will increase to maybe ~$12mm in 2024 and ~$18mm in 2025. So his next three year total by my rough math is $38mm.

Framber is 29. Given his age, I agree that he's more incentivized than Javier to want to tack on more years. But he's going to be closing in on $10mm in 2023, so the perk of getting more now isn't quite as strong. From the Astros POV, I'd look for a two year tack on at AAV ~$16mm/year. Effectively 5/$80mm starting in 2023. So he makes $8mm more in 2023 and $4mm more in 2024 than he otherwise would, and we get a discount on the backend. I'd give him a sixth year in exchange for a $14-15mm AAV instead of $16mm.

Javier is entering year 1 of arbitration and projected to make ~$3mm in 2023. Forecasting his future beyond that is difficult because he could be a solid 2-3 starter who's capable of getting hot, but he could also be the best pitcher in baseball. Variance is still wide. If he pitches at low-tier ace caliber, I could see him getting ~$10mm in 2024 and $18mm in 2025... putting his next three year total at $31mm.

Javier is 25 and may want to just ride it out until free agency. If he bets on himself and wins, he could win very very bigly. But given how little he's made so far as a professional, I could see him wanting to secure his future soon. Agree that when you do all the puts and takes, he probably justifies the same deal as Framber. From the Astros pov, I'd be willing to tack on a 6th year. Javier might not want to though unless the AAV got bumped to the $17-18mm range.

The way the Astros and most(?) other teams I have seen give extensions if you basically set the arbitration years somewhat close to what those #s would be then add on years at a high number.

Here is Yordan


Here is Bregman


I think its safe to say any extensions will keep to this "rule". It is more about how many add-on years and how much the AAV is for those years.

Framber is a curious case. He can basically say, I'm never seeing FA when I'm at the top of my game. Pay me for the rest of my prime and sweeten the deal a little with a signing bonus or divide my arb money evenly like Bregman. Or he say, no way. now how. Hitting the market at 32 is my one shot to get paid bigly. I wouldn't blame him either way. If he's comfortable here and Crane is willing, I would extend him 3 years without batting an eye. I think age 32, 33, and 34 Framber is still going to be very good.

I agree with what you said about Javier's variance. He may be a Cy Young winner or he may end up a 2/3 type and be as valuable as the Chris Bassits of the world. I think the more likely scenario for him if he gets an extension is just 1, maybe 2 add-on years. That way he can lock in money now and hit the market in his prime.

I really hope we find a way to get at least 1 done. Both would be ideal. Outside of Brown, I don't love our pitching prospects. I probably said the same in 2020 when we have no idea who Garvia or Javier were and we were not sold on Framber & Urquidy yet. I think it's more likely the cupboard is empty than we strike gold with 4 hidden gems again.