Cobra39 said:

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My opinion is that somebody not as smart as others are making moves. My opinion is that the 3-year / $30 million they gave to Montero is way out of line. Even though he had a great year, he is a total luxury and is the 3rd or 4th guy that goes 1 inning max....I think he pitched about 70 innings last year. Unless somebody can say that spending that $10 million / $30 million will have absolutely zero effect on what you offer/pay folks in the future.....aka the pie is just getting bigger....or if you are planning on trading some of the pitchers that come in later than him......then I say it was a bad move. If Tucker's offer was not way out of line and he would have accepted it with some this Montero money in it, they should have done that.

Maybe the Astros have a bigger plan and aren't done...and maybe they are going to trade some guys...like Pressly....then maybe as a piece of the overall plan, it might make sense.

Cobra39

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While I think Montero was a rather significant overpay, if he performs to his 2022 numbers it will be worth it.

The key is that it's only a 3 year deal. The risk is limited. Similar to Jose Abreu, though that contract is more fair even if a bit pricey.

Montero is a risk, but a short term one. It's Crane's money, and if he keeps adding these pieces to put together a ridiculously talented team over the next few years without adding a true albatross contract, why not?

This World Series champ is #ALLIN for Team USA. pic.twitter.com/T1blFm0vH4

— MLB (@MLB) December 1, 2022

In related news: last night, Ryan Pressly was the celebrity bartender on Watch What Happens Live. That is a sentence I never thought I’d type. https://t.co/yc7YRbDjgm

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 1, 2022

AggiEE said:

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Cobra39 said:

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My opinion is that somebody not as smart as others are making moves. My opinion is that the 3-year / $30 million they gave to Montero is way out of line. Even though he had a great year, he is a total luxury and is the 3rd or 4th guy that goes 1 inning max....I think he pitched about 70 innings last year. Unless somebody can say that spending that $10 million / $30 million will have absolutely zero effect on what you offer/pay folks in the future.....aka the pie is just getting bigger....or if you are planning on trading some of the pitchers that come in later than him......then I say it was a bad move. If Tucker's offer was not way out of line and he would have accepted it with some this Montero money in it, they should have done that.

Maybe the Astros have a bigger plan and aren't done...and maybe they are going to trade some guys...like Pressly....then maybe as a piece of the overall plan, it might make sense.

Cobra39

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While I think Montero was a rather significant overpay, if he performs to his 2022 numbers it will be worth it.

The key is that it's only a 3 year deal. The risk is limited. Similar to Jose Abreu, though that contract is more fair even if a bit pricey.

Montero is a risk, but a short term one. It's Crane's money, and if he keeps adding these pieces to put together a ridiculously talented team over the next few years without adding a true albatross contract, why not?

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Montero is a reliever. 3 years is fairly long, especially for a non-closer. Per spotrac, there are only 16 relievers with an active contract for 3 or more years. His total contract value is currently ranked 8th for relievers. Pressly's extension is only for 2 years unless he vests. We're now second to only CHW in 2023 Payroll dollars & % of total payroll for relief pitchers. We're first in Avg Payroll per relief pitcher.

Jose Abreu's contract is one of the richest of all time for someone going into their age 36 season. If you limit it to position players, I think he ranks 3rd all-time behind Victor Martinez (4/68) & Barry Bonds (5/90).

They're not Bill O Brien bad, but they scream negotiated by someone that isn't a GM. Hopefully, we win another one in the next 2 years because in 3 years we may not be enjoying these signings.

Recap: I like both players. I am excited to have them. But we likely overpaid and introduced risk for 2024/2025 when ti comes time to make decisions on Stanek, Neris, Maton, Altuve, & Bregman.

Farmer1906 said:

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AggiEE said:

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Cobra39 said:

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My opinion is that somebody not as smart as others are making moves. My opinion is that the 3-year / $30 million they gave to Montero is way out of line. Even though he had a great year, he is a total luxury and is the 3rd or 4th guy that goes 1 inning max....I think he pitched about 70 innings last year. Unless somebody can say that spending that $10 million / $30 million will have absolutely zero effect on what you offer/pay folks in the future.....aka the pie is just getting bigger....or if you are planning on trading some of the pitchers that come in later than him......then I say it was a bad move. If Tucker's offer was not way out of line and he would have accepted it with some this Montero money in it, they should have done that.

Maybe the Astros have a bigger plan and aren't done...and maybe they are going to trade some guys...like Pressly....then maybe as a piece of the overall plan, it might make sense.

Cobra39

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While I think Montero was a rather significant overpay, if he performs to his 2022 numbers it will be worth it.

The key is that it's only a 3 year deal. The risk is limited. Similar to Jose Abreu, though that contract is more fair even if a bit pricey.

Montero is a risk, but a short term one. It's Crane's money, and if he keeps adding these pieces to put together a ridiculously talented team over the next few years without adding a true albatross contract, why not?

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Montero is a reliever. 3 years is fairly long, especially for a non-closer. Per spotrac, there are only 16 relievers with an active contract for 3 or more years. His total contract value is currently ranked 8th for relievers. Pressly's extension is only for 2 years unless he vests. We're now second to only CHW in 2023 Payroll dollars & % of total payroll for relief pitchers. We're first in Avg Payroll per relief pitcher.

Jose Abreu's contract is one of the richest of all time for someone going into their age 36 season. If you limit it to position players, I think he ranks 3rd all-time behind Victor Martinez (4/68) & Barry Bonds (5/90).

They're not Bill O Brien bad, but they scream negotiated by someone that isn't a GM. Hopefully, we win another one in the next 2 years because in 3 years we may not be enjoying these signings.

Recap: I like both players. I am excited to have them. But we likely overpaid and introduced risk for 2024/2025 when ti comes time to make decisions on Stanek, Neris, Maton, Altuve, & Bregman.

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They're still low in terms of years and collectively they aren't going to make or break the team into 2024/2025 if Crane is willing to go into the luxury tax, which he has indicated.

If we hadn't extended these offers they'd get that money elsewhere and we'd be left with no 1B and down a reliever. There ain't much available on the market

It looks like Crane is willing to pay a bit more to lock in the team in the near term and improve it. You can't ask for a better situation than that.

Id rather overpay Abreu than trade Urquidy with years of solid SP control for a rental. There are times to be stingy and times to be greedy, and don't make the big mistakes.

Rumor about Contreras:

Quote:

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" a lot of misconceptions out there about Contreras

First, several weeks ago I said the Astros plan would be to have have him play multiple spots. I don't know where this Twitter guy heard he wouldn't catch. Unless something has changed in the last 10 days, Contreras would still catch and would be the catcher when Maldy would not be catching. The goal was around 100-110 starts for Maldonado. That means 50-55 games where Contreras would start as a catcher. He would DH when Alvarez plays the field (80-85 games) and he would play some LF and possibly first if Abreu is out or DHing.
The Astros (and Contreras) believe that he wears down catching 120 games a year and it impacts his hitting. He also has discussed playing better and focusing on a winning team.
So from the Astros perspective he fits very well and his bat will improve with better protection and not having catch as often.
Maldonado would also work with him on game planning and pitch selection.
As for his defense, he is not considered a bad defensive catcher around the league. He has very good raw tools and they make up for the occasional mental lapses he has. So he won't hurt the defense.

Where Contreras has drawn criticism is managing a pitching staff and preparing for games. They believe the preparation for him will be less demanding catching less often and the Astros coaching staff and Maldonado will help a lot with that.
The Astros are looking for value and versatility and he potentially provides that. So far Contreras hasn't had an offer around the amount he is worth. The Astros have made an informal offer and we wi see.
A lot of this stuff in the media about the Astros is mostly accurate but details are missing and context.

If the Astros can get him at a solid value I would support the move.

Also, I know some of Contreras basic analytical numbers seem good but not great, but my understanding is some of the more advanced and precise numbers show he is an even better hitter than advertised.

The Astros want to meet him in person (something Click didn't care about) and the Astros will judge him in person, FWIW someone from the pitching hive mind (Murphy maybe?) will meet with him. As for Bagwell, I trust his ability to identify the work ethic and character of a ball player. It is something he has good instincts for.

Also I am fine with them just signing an outfielder instead, they are looking at all angles to increase their chances of improving the team. Contreras makes more sense than it seems at first - but so does just getting an outfielder and back up catcher."

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Like it was discussed earlier in this thread, if we signed Contreras and it looked something like this :

50 starts at catcher
40 starts at LF
30 starts at DH
10 starts at 1B
(130 total)

That would make a ton of sense. Then the playoffs roll around, and you have the ability to tinker with lineups and maybe have him catch more than he did in the regular season, if it makes sense for the team.

Well no shlt...Who wouldn't wanna send Bielak and Maton over Urquidy and Leon?

Farmer1906 said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

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Even if we sign Contreras, we still need some left handed hitting. All the signings are right handers. Wonder how we make someone fit like that.

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Urquidy, Chas, Leon, & Whitley for Reynolds?

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As long as we've got a plan to backfill Urquidy, I'd consider that. The Pirates aren't going to deal Reynolds unless they're getting a really nice haul. That would probably suffice.

I'd say let's spend the $40mm we would otherwise give JV on Brantley, Contreras and Reynolds. Then roll into the 2023 playoffs with:

1. Altuve 2B
2. Bregman 3B
3. Alvarez DH
4. Abreu 1B
5. Tucker RF
6. Pena SS
7. Reynolds CF
8. Contreras C
9. Brantley LF

Deluxe said:

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1. Altuve 2B
2. Bregman 3B
3. Alvarez DH
4. Abreu 1B
5. Tucker RF
6. Pena SS
7. Reynolds CF
8. Contreras C
9. Brantley LF

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Deluxe said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

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Even if we sign Contreras, we still need some left handed hitting. All the signings are right handers. Wonder how we make someone fit like that.

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Urquidy, Chas, Leon, & Whitley for Reynolds?

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As long as we've got a plan to backfill Urquidy, I'd consider that. The Pirates aren't going to deal Reynolds unless they're getting a really nice haul. That would probably suffice.

I'd say let's spend the $40mm we would otherwise give JV on Brantley, Contreras and Reynolds. Then roll into the 2023 playoffs with:

1. Altuve 2B
2. Bregman 3B
3. Alvarez DH
4. Abreu 1B
5. Tucker RF
6. Pena SS
7. Reynolds CF
8. Contreras C
9. Brantley LF

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If we got something similar to our 2022 pitching, we're winning 116 games.

I just realized that from September through the playoffs, Javier allowed 2 ER and struck out 53 in 41 innings.

Framber has ascended to true ace status but he might not be the best pitcher on the staff if Javier can build off his 2022 stretch run performance.

Deluxe said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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EastCoastAgNc said:

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Even if we sign Contreras, we still need some left handed hitting. All the signings are right handers. Wonder how we make someone fit like that.

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Urquidy, Chas, Leon, & Whitley for Reynolds?

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As long as we've got a plan to backfill Urquidy, I'd consider that. The Pirates aren't going to deal Reynolds unless they're getting a really nice haul. That would probably suffice.

I'd say let's spend the $40mm we would otherwise give JV on Brantley, Contreras and Reynolds. Then roll into the 2023 playoffs with:

1. Altuve 2B
2. Bregman 3B
3. Alvarez DH
4. Abreu 1B
5. Tucker RF
6. Pena SS
7. Reynolds CF
8. Contreras C
9. Brantley LF

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Ouch

The Boston #RedSox offered the same contract for Eflin, but he lives in nearby Orlando, so #Rays had home-field advantage https://t.co/rZnxMFWWpB

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 2, 2022

I've went from lukewarm on Contreras to being all in and now going to be very disappointed if it doesn't happen.

Farmer1906 said:

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I've went from lukewarm on Contreras to being all in and now going to be very disappointed if it doesn't happen.

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Once you see the potential playoff lineup of death, you can't unsee it.