***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***

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W
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7:53p, 12/1/22
AG
speaking of the Red Sox...

Boston is an interesting case study...they went all-in to win the 2018 title...and they won it.

but they put themselves into payroll prison to do it...and wrecked much of their roster in the subsequent years.

paid too much for Sale, Eovaldi, Price, et al..., and had to make the disastrous Betts-for-Verdugo trade.

missed the playoffs last year and may be the worst team in the AL East as things stand right now

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astroaggie13
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In reply to W • 8:06p, 12/1/22
AG
W said:
thinking about the catching situation from Bagwell's standpoint...

part of being old school is that you have a strong belief in the batting average statistic.

so when he sees Machete at .186 for the season last year in 344 at-bats...

he's thinking upgrade...despite all the other things Machete does
Bagwell is BFFs with Brad Assmus. He knows what other things poor hitting catchers can bring to the table.
Gig em Stros
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BadAggie
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8:24p, 12/1/22
AG
Like the idea of Contreras as DH/C. Then sign some outfielder like Duvall to play LF in the games Yordan DHs.
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to W • 8:33p, 12/1/22
AG
W said:
thinking about the catching situation from Bagwell's standpoint...

part of being old school is that you have a strong belief in the batting average statistic.

so when he sees Machete at .186 for the season last year in 344 at-bats...

he's thinking upgrade...despite all the other things Machete does
He was teammates with Brad Ausmus. The ultimate no-hit, good-glove catcher. While the rest of the NL had guys like Mike Piazza, Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, and Javy Lopez, Ausmus was cranking out the ol' .327 slugging percentage in 10 seasons with the Astros.

His game-tying home run in Game 4 of the 2005 NLDS is living proof that Satan is real and is willing to make a deal with you.
Life is better with a beagle
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Farmer1906
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In reply to BadAggie • 8:48p, 12/1/22
AG
BadAggie said:
Like the idea of Contreras as DH/C. Then sign some outfielder like Duvall to play LF in the games Yordan DHs.


Or just stick Contreras in LF occasionally.
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EastCoastAgNc
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9:01p, 12/1/22
AG

Goodbye JV
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BadAggie
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 9:06p, 12/1/22
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:

Goodbye JV


Hate to see JV go but it's a business
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to BadAggie • 9:16p, 12/1/22
When you factor in his age and his postseason struggles, he's just not worth nearly as much as he's asking for.

I'd be pissed if we signed him to that deal.
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n_touch
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 9:19p, 12/1/22
EastCoastAgNc said:

Goodbye JV


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Ciboag96
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9:22p, 12/1/22
With Contreras and Abreu in the lineup, the team with the best record in the AL will have replaced a -0.3 and 0.3 WAR with a 4.2 and 3.9 WAR.

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BadAggie
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9:23p, 12/1/22
AG
Man, could do a lot for the rest of the team if you spent $40MM a year on other areas than starting pitching solely
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The Porkchop Express
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9:27p, 12/1/22
AG
I appreciate JV's ego but that's insane given his age. Even if you go with the rationale that his arm is technically 2 years younger than other guys his age given him missing almost all of 2020 and 2021, who the heck will give a guy a contract where you're paying a 43-year-old starting pitcher $43 million? Even Peyton Manning and Tom Brady got old, JV. And once you hit that wall, no amount of vaseline or Jobu's rum gets you back to good again.

Whatever team signs him needs to win 2 WS when he's there or that deal sucks.

Life is better with a beagle
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BadAggie
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9:31p, 12/1/22
AG
Odds are from my armchair expertise that JV will regress from here (which is rareified air, no doubt). That is, it would be surprising if he was able to maintain his performance level of this season in 2023.

Yeah it's comparing apples to oranges but Yuli fell off a cliff in 2022 from 2021. This tends to happen in sports, great players get older and eventually decline.

Maybe teams will be skeptical and see Scherzer's performance in 2022 as a cautionary tale.

But there's always one team out there. You have desperate teams in NY and LA who are feeling the heat to win. Someone will throw stupid money at JV I think.
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BadAggie
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9:36p, 12/1/22
AG
Free agent starters:

STARTING PITCHERS

Carlos Rodn (30 years old, 11.1 WAR)
Clayton Kershaw (35, 7.2)
Jacob deGrom (35, 7.1)
Nathan Eovaldi (33, 6.7)
Chris Bassitt (34, 6.3)
Tyler Anderson (33, 6.1) -- Signed 3-year deal with LAA (Nov. 16)
Justin Verlander (40, 6.1)
Kyle Gibson (34, 4.8)
Corey Kluber (37, 4.5)
Martn Prez (31, 4.5) -- Accepted QO from TEX (Nov. 15)
Sean Manaea (31, 4.4)

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2022-23-free-agents-by-position
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Mr.Bond
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9:37p, 12/1/22
AG
Need to LOCK him down before spring
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

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Mr.Bond
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 9:38p, 12/1/22
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:

Goodbye JV



Holy **** what a ****in joke..... honestly it makes me lose respect for jv a bit. And as stated with his WS struggles...... hard ****in pass, thanks for the memories
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

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BadAggie
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9:50p, 12/1/22
AG
Extend Tucker, sign Contreras, and hey keep some cap flexibility over the next couple years. Kinda funny to think losing the unanimous Cy Young winner with a sub 2.00 ERA might work out for the best
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Mr.Bond • 9:53p, 12/1/22
AG
Mr.Bond said:
Need to LOCK him down before spring


Not saying TED won't be improved next year, but to think his wOBA will be .463 without the shift is crazy.

1. There will still be defensive alignments to take advantage of spray charts and tendencies.

2. The way to measure the impact would be to look at balls that were hit Into the shift and into where defenders will potentially be. If he hit a high rate of HRs when the shift wasn't on, that doesn't mean he'll co ti he that HR rate when shifts aren't on next year. Correlation doesn't always equal Causation.
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Ag_07
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9:57p, 12/1/22
AG
Guess we know why Crane hasn't spoken to him lately.

That's insane
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halfastros81
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In reply to BadAggie • 10:00p, 12/1/22
AG
Great pitcher but at this age those kind of salary demands are a potential team killer imo. With the bat the Astros just added and the pitching we have including Hunter Brown In The rotation I just can't see the case for it. You have to control payroll to compete over the long haul and it would be difficult to keep the core paying one guy that much . It's not in the Astros DNA imo

Will hate having to face him . Hurts less if he goes To the NL.

I think there are probably only 2 teams that could do anything remotely approaching that…. Yankers and Dodgers.
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Ag_07
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10:06p, 12/1/22
AG
I'm also assuming he ends up a Dodger because they're the only team that can afford $43mm per year.

Seriously how many teams can?
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halfastros81
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In reply to Ag_07 • 10:12p, 12/1/22
AG
I think the answer is 2 teams but I also don't think it's a smart move even if you could afford it because it screws you on flexibility . If he goes down with injury or loses effectiveness you are totally hosed for years.

I wouldn't do it for half that.
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agproducer
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10:19p, 12/1/22
AG
Thank you, JV. You have your rings. We appreciate all you've done.

Go chase that paper.

I ain't mad at ya.
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FrioAg 00
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10:22p, 12/1/22
AG
I ain't mad. He can go get paid if that's what he wants, and I honestly don't think it moves the needle much on our WS odds for next year.

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BadAggie
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10:27p, 12/1/22
AG

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Farmer1906
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 10:27p, 12/1/22
AG
See ya

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BadAggie
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10:30p, 12/1/22
AG
Fair or not Hunter Brown may be called upon to replace JV
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Farmer1906
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In reply to BadAggie • 10:33p, 12/1/22
AG
BadAggie said:
Fair or not Hunter Brown may be called upon to replace JV


But not really. There is a chance he's not even in the rotation to start the year if we sign another arm like Kluber. We have Framber, McCullers, Javier, Garcia, & Urquidy.
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BadAggie
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10:37p, 12/1/22
AG
Forty million dollars could get you Contreras, a decent outfielder to cover LF when Yordan DHs, and perhaps a solid starting pitcher. And then some cash left over for Rule 5, international, or whatever.

I guess I'd feel differently if Game 1 of the WS went differently. Or Game 1 of the ALDS before Servais pitched to Yordan.
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BadAggie
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10:46p, 12/1/22
AG
To be fair JV took care of business in game 1 of the ALCS and game 5 of the WS.

Still, Crane let Springer and Correa walk when the price was too high. Don't think it will be different with JV
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The Porkchop Express
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10:47p, 12/1/22
AG
For 40 million you could get Correa back and have him play center field and pitch 50 innings.
Life is better with a beagle
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BadAggie
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10:59p, 12/1/22
AG
Astros still reportedly interested in Conforto:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mariners-astros-among-teams-with-interest-in-michael-conforto.html
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BadAggie
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In reply to BadAggie • 11:01p, 12/1/22
AG
"Brantley is coming off shoulder surgery of his own his procedure coming in August. McTaggart suggests the club isn't closing the door on retaining Brantley for a fifth season, but there's a bit more uncertainty on the five-time All-Star's status since he underwent his surgery more recently than Conforto has."
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BadAggie
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11:03p, 12/1/22
AG
" Yesterday, the Astros introduced their new signee Jos Abreu and owner Jim Crane took some questions from the media. "We have to look at the catching, maybe another outfielder, and you can never have enough pitching," Crane said, per Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/astros-to-meet-with-willson-contreras.html
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BadAggie
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In reply to BadAggie • 11:07p, 12/1/22
AG
" Crane has subsequently dispatched general manager James Click and now seems to be running the baseball operations for the club, with a new general manager unlikely to be hired until the new year. Though Crane didn't like the deadline deal, Contreras is now a free agent, making it more straightforward to attain him at this point. He did receive and reject a qualifying offer, however, meaning the Astros would forfeit their second highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K of their international bonus pool if they did end up signing him.

In terms of the money, the Astros still have plenty to work with, even with their recent aggression. Their signings of Abreu and Rafael Montero bring their payroll to $183MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $198MM. In his remarks yesterday, relayed by Rome, Crane said "we certainly have the ability to go at or over" the luxury tax. This year's lowest CBT threshold will be $233MM, giving the Astros about $35MM of wiggle room remaining between them and the line. MLBTR predicted Contreras to get a contract of $84MM over four years, which would be an annual average value of $21MM."
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