rbtexan said:

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Leiter has electric stuff but is struggling with command. Nibbling too much maybe, adjusting to the professional strike zone. Nobody is worried about Leiter though.

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It's early, but I do wonder if given a do-over they would have started him at high A and ready to promote quickly

I may be COMPLETELY wrong about this, but I swear I heard somewhere that part of the agreement to get Leiter to sign was that he go straight to AA.

I like drafting starting pitching. Especially if the pitcher came through college, even more so at a place like Vandy

I like the move if we didn't think our options at #3 were worth the slot. It just sucks that there wasn't a better pick at #3, especially in a year where we are missing our 2nd and 3rd round picks.

The more I think about the pick, the more excited I get. What a ballsy move with incredible upside. The most MLB ready pitcher in the draft with the most top-end upside. Either way, it's definitely an exciting pick.

Brock Porter, who some consider the best pitching prospect in the draft is still available due to slot concerns. Wonder if the Rangers can offer him enough to get him? Just need him to drop to 109.

2 parter here
Whats going on with Leiters command???? He didnt seem to struggle in college... I get that he didnt always have to make MLB quality pitches in school but Im worried he is being "adjusted" too much.
Rocker..... any thoughts to Rangers have a closer role in mind for him? I doubt you take a guy at #3 and not hope he is a top of rotation guy but with his odd arm trouble history maybe closer is an option?????

Seriously doubt they drafted him at #3 with intentions of making him a closer. May be a closer is his floor, but Rocker is a top of the rotation guy today.

alvtimes said:

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2 parter here
Whats going on with Leiters command???? He didnt seem to struggle in college... I get that he didnt always have to make MLB quality pitches in school but Im worried he is being "adjusted" too much.
Rocker..... any thoughts to Rangers have a closer role in mind for him? I doubt you take a guy at #3 and not hope he is a top of rotation guy but with his odd arm trouble history maybe closer is an option?????

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I think Leiter's command issues have a lot to do with the adjustment from college to pro ball. Better hitters, who won't swing at the pitches he got college players to. Also, minor league umpires likely have a tighter strike zone than college umps, and he's not getting strikes with pitches he did at Vandy. He'll get it sorted out, but it'll take a bit. I bet we see significant improvement by season's end.

Rocker is a starter unless he proves incapable physically.

You have to believe that with Holliday and Jones solidified as 1-2/2-1, that the Rangers were able to dig deep into Rocker's expectations and where he is.

Rangers narrowed in on both he and Leiter for 2021. You have to believe the Rangers have his before/after medical information. I'd like to believe that Leiter and Kumar have a good relationship. Kumar is 6 months older, so age-wise, that's a plus. Kumar is 23 in Nov.

I'm mixed about the pick, but when they indicated that he was moving up the draft list and could be a Top 10 pick... taking him was a very Rangers thing to do.

I thought the Rangers would go safe, but they went Risk-Reward. Let's hope this isn't a Dillon Tate/Matuella draft.

I've drafted a few posts about 2023 and scrapped most of them.

I referenced here that the Rangers only stand to lose Martin Perez and Culberson for 2023. Everybody else for the most part is available. Matt Moore (31G, 1.73) is a RP, and I look at RP differently. Love to keep him, but he likely wants a starting role.

So, if you look at 2022 and say we need:
#1 SP (Gray #2, Dunning #4)
#3 SP
#5 SP

3B
OF (Rangers have opts on Brad Miller and Kole Calhoun)
RP (Need 2, IMO)

We have RP: Barlow (30G, 3.26), B Martin (35G, 2.61), Bush (35G, 3.41), Burke (30G, 1.15)

You don't want to draft a SS that you KNOW is behind Seager for the next decade. I did love hearing many of the top SSs reference Seager as their inspiration. With Semien and the number of 2B/LF players we have, that's a lock.

3B with Jung, Josh Smith, et al, you'd take an elite player there, but if Jung gets healthy, again, a long-term lock. Top two 3B to go where Jacob Berry (LSU) and Cam Collier (HS kinda). I think both would have been good options but both fall in the timeline of Jung/Smith. Are they that much better?

OF - Draft went Green (1.5, HS), Cross (1.9, VaTech), DeLauter (1.16, College), Justin Crawford (1.17, HS).

I think there were too many question marks for Green and a HS isn't going to help for 3-4 years.

The more I look... the more Kumar made sense for a Rangers team that has a roster it has, the prospect it has, and the window they plan to compete.

It could also be that he's working on different arm slots, grips, pitches in general. We have no idea what type of training he's on. I'm sure if they see his confidence start to be an issue they'll put him back on track to build him up. Still not worried in the slightest.

I saw this and thought it was interesting. It honestly makes complete sense. Both Rocker and Porter are represented by Scott Boras. The Rangers probably took Rocker with the idea that they were going to be able to pick Porter in the 4th. If they leave this draft with both Rocker and Porter, I'm giving it an A+.

Sources confirm Rangers, Rocker have agreed to framework for deal at $5.2 million, significantly below slot. How it will impact the draft. I expect the Rangers to take Brock Porter in 4th round.https://t.co/WThM2BAuWo

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) July 18, 2022

😂😂 see you soon @KumarRocker https://t.co/BYAkqf5obp

— jack leiter (@jackleiter22) July 18, 2022

DallasAg 94 said:

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I've drafted a few posts about 2023 and scrapped most of them.

I referenced here that the Rangers only stand to lose Martin Perez and Culberson for 2023. Everybody else for the most part is available. Matt Moore (31G, 1.73) is a RP, and I look at RP differently. Love to keep him, but he likely wants a starting role.

So, if you look at 2022 and say we need:
#1 SP (Gray #2, Dunning #4)
#3 SP
#5 SP

3B
OF (Rangers have opts on Brad Miller and Kole Calhoun)
RP (Need 2, IMO)

We have RP: Barlow (30G, 3.26), B Martin (35G, 2.61), Bush (35G, 3.41), Burke (30G, 1.15)

You don't want to draft a SS that you KNOW is behind Seager for the next decade. I did love hearing many of the top SSs reference Seager as their inspiration. With Semien and the number of 2B/LF players we have, that's a lock.

3B with Jung, Josh Smith, et al, you'd take an elite player there, but if Jung gets healthy, again, a long-term lock. Top two 3B to go where Jacob Berry (LSU) and Cam Collier (HS kinda). I think both would have been good options but both fall in the timeline of Jung/Smith. Are they that much better?

OF - Draft went Green (1.5, HS), Cross (1.9, VaTech), DeLauter (1.16, College), Justin Crawford (1.17, HS).

I think there were too many question marks for Green and a HS isn't going to help for 3-4 years.

The more I look... the more Kumar made sense for a Rangers team that has a roster it has, the prospect it has, and the window they plan to compete.

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I believe the Rangers will re-sign Perez, so that would give
#1 SP - Perez
#2 SP - Gray
#3 SP - Dunning
#4 SP - ??
#5 SP - ??

Is it possible Rocker is far enough along that we could be a rotation piece in 2023? If so, that certainly helps off-season decision making. When does Leiter project to be a rotation piece, 2024? Late 2023?

Definitely need to fill a corner OF spot.

We have a plethora of wealth in the infield, minus 1B.

So offseason needs are

1 - SP
2 - RP x2
3 - OF
4 - 1B

I'm predicting a player that we like that we've seen get playing time this season will be traded in the off-season

Looks like the Rangers are calling it "arm fatigue" for Leiter

https://www.si.com/mlb/rangers/news/jack-leiter-arm-fatigue-skip-start-round-rock-express

Shouldn't be surprising. Let's hope he rebounds and continues to make progress.

Normally I'd expect Kumar to go to Spokane (NWL) but with it being scrapped, it'll be interesting to see where they send him. Looks like he is officially signed for $2.5M below slot. He'll get slightly less than the $6M he was slotted in 2021, but at $5.2M, I'm sure he (and Boras) is thrilled.

We get Porter with that extra money and I agree A+ draft.

Porter's arm is special and he's going to continue to grow into it. If we can get him to go along w Rocker, this is most definitely an A+ draft.

If we use the 2.5m on Brock Porter (best Pitching prospect in the draft according to MLB.com) then great. However, he has fallen because of signability issues. If he was projected to go top 10 with an approximate $ window of value of $4.98 million. So if he wouldn't sign for $4.98 million, if we take him in the 4th round pick it has a value of $560k.

If we add the $2.5m to that window it only equals $3million. I then have to think our additional picks in the first round will have to be pretty big reaches to have them sign way below pick value in order to get more money in our top10 round cap. I believe if we draft players and don't sign them at all we don't get to "use" the money saved on the other draft picks. We have to actually sign draftees below the expected pick budget in order to be able to give that delta to someone else.

Is that correct?

Mr Gigem said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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I've drafted a few posts about 2023 and scrapped most of them.

I referenced here that the Rangers only stand to lose Martin Perez and Culberson for 2023. Everybody else for the most part is available. Matt Moore (31G, 1.73) is a RP, and I look at RP differently. Love to keep him, but he likely wants a starting role.

So, if you look at 2022 and say we need:
#1 SP (Gray #2, Dunning #4)
#3 SP
#5 SP

3B
OF (Rangers have opts on Brad Miller and Kole Calhoun)
RP (Need 2, IMO)

We have RP: Barlow (30G, 3.26), B Martin (35G, 2.61), Bush (35G, 3.41), Burke (30G, 1.15)

You don't want to draft a SS that you KNOW is behind Seager for the next decade. I did love hearing many of the top SSs reference Seager as their inspiration. With Semien and the number of 2B/LF players we have, that's a lock.

3B with Jung, Josh Smith, et al, you'd take an elite player there, but if Jung gets healthy, again, a long-term lock. Top two 3B to go where Jacob Berry (LSU) and Cam Collier (HS kinda). I think both would have been good options but both fall in the timeline of Jung/Smith. Are they that much better?

OF - Draft went Green (1.5, HS), Cross (1.9, VaTech), DeLauter (1.16, College), Justin Crawford (1.17, HS).

I think there were too many question marks for Green and a HS isn't going to help for 3-4 years.

The more I look... the more Kumar made sense for a Rangers team that has a roster it has, the prospect it has, and the window they plan to compete.

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I believe the Rangers will re-sign Perez, so that would give
#1 SP - Perez
#2 SP - Gray
#3 SP - Dunning
#4 SP - ??
#5 SP - ??

Is it possible Rocker is far enough along that we could be a rotation piece in 2023? If so, that certainly helps off-season decision making. When does Leiter project to be a rotation piece, 2024? Late 2023?

Definitely need to fill a corner OF spot.

We have a plethora of wealth in the infield, minus 1B.

So offseason needs are

1 - SP
2 - RP x2
3 - OF
4 - 1B

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I think many on here were hoping Leiter would make an appearance in 2022.

Based on pre-draft coverage on the MLB draft show, I think the idea that Rocker could be in a Bullpen for 2022 was posibility. Based on the arm fatigue of Leiter, I'd think both "could" see some GS in 2023, but I'd hesitate to say it would be anything meaningful for a playoff run.

Could Hearne, Otto, Howard, Matt Moore be options?! I'd think so.

We need at least one to emerge for 2023. Rangers could add a retreat/rebound hopeful.

I would agree on needs in the order you state.

The Rangers wouldn't have wasted the 3rd pick on Rocker if they didn't expect him to be a starter. You don't draft a relief pitcher in the first round.

Is there a scenario where he winds up in the bullpen, sure. But you can bet he's going to start until he proves that he can't.

With the size of these organizations, it's silly to think we did a "deep dive" on an arm like Rocker moreso than any other club.

We simply decided the risk was right for us.

Every mock draft I saw had Rocker going in the upper half of the 1st round. Most had him going being 8-14. It's no surprise that Rocker went in the 1st, only that he went at 3.

IMO, once Holliday & Jones were off the board it was an easy pick to make, because there are concerns with all the other players that were available. I don't view Rocker's being any more of a risk than Green striking out at a 20% rate.

Correct. If you don't sign a player, you lose that slot money.

Which is why the Rangers could draft players without any college eligibility left and they have no choice but to sign for what is offered. You also arrange with those players beforehand.

Top picks for HS P:
1.15 (SDP) - $4.08M
1.20 (Atl) - $3.41M
1.23 (Tor) - $3.08M
1.26 (Schultz) - $2.79M

Normally, I would agree that a player question to sign for $5M won't sign for $3M, however, never bet against Boras.

Couple things. By Boras putting out there that there are sign-ability concerns, it could drive the pick higher. It might just be to leverage above slot money. It appears to not have succeeded in either of these.

So, Porter's options are to go to Clemson and pitch for a couple years and likely be a Top pick if his arm holds out. At which point a team signs him and has control over his arrival at the MLB level and then team control for 6 years (if that is still the case with the new CBA).

OR... Boras can now get his kid say $3M but dictates a more aggressive development where he starts at a more advanced minor league hoping to shave a year off minor leagues getting him to Arb faster and FA faster.

Look at Leiter. $7.9M signed last year. He'll likely be 23 before he hits The Bigs. If he stays, he'll be 29 before being a FA.

If Porter signs... he turned 19 this past June. He'll be draft eligible in 2024, making him 21. He is likely 29 when a FA. If he signs now, he's got 2 years in the Rangers org. at 21, he could very well be flirting with making it.

The net-cost to Porter may be $1-2M up front.

One last point with Pitchers. We still don't know how Covid is going to affect college pitchers in the draft. I think more teams are becoming weary of signing HS pitchers with Top picks. Too much gamble. Let them get their TJ surgery in college and see where they are.

Interesting that the rangers are the favorites to land Soto according to Heyman.

https://nypost.com/2022/07/17/yankees-mets-will-both-explore-trade-for-juan-soto/

rbtexan said:

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The Rangers wouldn't have wasted the 3rd pick on Rocker if they didn't expect him to be a starter. You don't draft a relief pitcher in the first round.

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Dillon Tate?

rbtexan said:

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Every mock draft I saw had Rocker going in the upper half of the 1st round. Most had him going being 8-14. It's no surprise that Rocker went in the 1st, only that he went at 3.

IMO, once Holliday & Jones were off the board it was an easy pick to make, because there are concerns with all the other players that were available. I don't view Rocker's being any more of a risk than Green striking out at a 20% rate.

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Yeah I'm not really chiming in on whether I think the risk is worth it or not.

Simply that this isn't the pre-internet age where some team might not have "known what we know" regarding a guy like Rocker. Every team knew his stuff, every team knew his health risks. Texas just decided the fit was right for them at that pick.

DallasAg 94 said:

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rbtexan said:

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The Rangers wouldn't have wasted the 3rd pick on Rocker if they didn't expect him to be a starter. You don't draft a relief pitcher in the first round.

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Dillon Tate?

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He was drafted as a starter. Don't be obtuse.

third round is almost over, so we should know soon who we are picking in the fourth.

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker

rbtexan said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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rbtexan said:

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The Rangers wouldn't have wasted the 3rd pick on Rocker if they didn't expect him to be a starter. You don't draft a relief pitcher in the first round.

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Dillon Tate?

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He was drafted as a starter. Don't be obtuse.

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More accurately, he was drafted TO BE a starter with the belief his floor was a Closer.

He was a RP until his final year.
https://www.mlb.com/news/pitcher-dillon-tate-drafted-fourth-by-rangers/c-129379368

Quote:

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They took him as a starter even though there are some who suggested he might be better off in the bullpen. Tate was a reliever for the Gauchos as a sophomore before moving into the rotation this season. He was also a reliever on the national team last summer.

"He started all year and we believe that is what he is," Rangers scouting director Kip ***g said. "We're very confident he'll be a starter. Great makeup ... we've got a power pitcher who is going to be a starter."

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It is a double-edged sword. If the Rangers are the only ones that saw him as a SP, it speaks to their scouting that he is in fact a RP. He was undrafted out of HS and was a RP for two years in an otherwise little known school.

He was a project at best as a SP who didn't have a consistent repeatable delivery to be an every 5th day SP.

KT 90 said:

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third round is almost over, so we should know soon who we are picking in the fourth.

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker

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Brock Porter

Brock Porter! Boom!

Solid pick