If we play 162 games and starters average 5 inning per game we will need 810 innings.

Lets just assume some health for our guys with some minor inning restrictions and a few minor DL stints. Here are some guesses at IP for our starters.
Greinke - 195 (he's bee over 200 5 of the last 6 years not counting 2020)
McCullers - 130 (assuming some issue, but 130 would be a career best)
Urquidy - 130 (he did 141 + postseason in 19. Think this should be safe conservative #)
Javier - 130 (he was 110, 113 in 18 and 19. This would be the next step)

That means we need 225 innings thrown as starters for Garcia, James, Pruitt, Whitley, JV (?), Ivey, Bielak.

If there is one more serious injury then we're completely ****ed IMO.

Assuming the Framber rumors turn out to be true, I'm with you on your Odorizzi plan now. As much as I think one of Garcia/Abreu/Whitley could fill in nicely, it's probably an unnecessary risk for a team that has the offensive firepower to be a WS contender again. If we can get Odorizzi for a 1 + player option type of deal, I'm game.

My guess is that we're going to see how the young guys perform before looking externally but I won't be surprised either way now.

Farmer1906 said:

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I wonder what it will take to sign Odorizzi. He's a serviceable enough guy who can eat up 100+ innings in the back end of our rotation. If you give him a 2-year deal then it'll help negate the losses of Greinke & McCullers (from a pure inning needed). He's got that Rays connection that Click loves too.

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I'm not saying I have ESP. But can you say that I don't?

So my parents drove all the way to Florida last weekend only to find out from the local news that the ONLY game they had gotten tickets for was changed. When my dad checked his account, he had a refund of their tickets in it. No communication from the Astros that the game had been moved.

Spring Training is a complete cluster this year.

how many years would Odorizzi want?

Spotrac says the Astros are only $14 MM from the luxury tax for 2021

It's certainly possible to sign him, but we would be severely restricted after that.

Are we one Jake O from being a playoff team? From winning the World Series?

Obviously hard to say right now, but I don't think we are winning a World Series unless some of the Whitley types step up anyway. I think I'd prefer to roll with what we've got and save that money for a deadline move.

W said:

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how many years would Odorizzi want?

Spotrac says the Astros are only $14 MM from the luxury tax for 2021

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Fangraphs crowdsource was 3 years 39 M, spotrac market value shows 2 year 28 M. I don't think either is too far off.

Harry Dunne said:

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It's certainly possible to sign him, but we would be severely restricted after that.

Are we one Jake O from being a playoff team? From winning the World Series?

Obviously hard to say right now, but I don't think we are winning a World Series unless some of the Whitley types step up anyway. I think I'd prefer to roll with what we've got and save that money for a deadline move.

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In 2017 we built up a giant lead in the division due to a hot start and then no one could catch us in a weak year. Even then we had Fiers step up and carry some of the mid-season load for pitching.

It would limit us this season, but enough comes off the books after 2021 that he's not going to stop us from signing Correa, McCullers, or both.

Jake was a 4.3 WAR pitcher in 2019. He's projected 2.0 WAR in 2021. He's a career sub 4 ERA starter who will get you 150+ a year. He's got a fairly good 4 seamer that spins. Maybe Stromly fixes him up a little. He'd be a reliable vet in the rotation to eat innings. He won't break the bank and helps cushion the blow of Framber this year and Greinke/Lance next year.

Edit: I am not in love with him or anything, but he's a legit big league starter. It's probably the best option or at least the most obvious one. Just like 2017, we all knew the pitching wasn't going to be enough. DK harped on it at the deadline and he was right. I don't want to waste this offense. This could be our year.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/houston-has-a-rotation-problem/

FAngraphs weighs in on our rotation now.

I broke my left ring finger on vacation the summer I graduated high school and it took almost 6 months to fully "heal". I went a rope swing on vacation and somehow the finger got caught or something and caused a spiral fracture. Was told to get surgery but that would have disqualified me for my ROTC scholarship. Just let it heal naturally and spent the majority of first semester fish year with a metal finger covering. Could hardly make a fist for a long time but had enough range of motion to play an instrument

My guess is that there is ligament and/or soft tissue injuries associated with the broken finger.

Well, this hasn't been a great week...

Yep. Fiers & Peacock. Peacock still available BTW.

Yeah I'd love to have him (Odorizzi) obviously, but if it's a one or the other situation I'd rather save the money for someone who could make even more impact in the playoffs at the deadline

The other being a trade option with a held tier contract? I don't hate it but it's just an unknown plus it costs prospects. Right now I don't want to give up any plus position player prospects.

Hopefully that's just a covid scared and not a long term injury issue.

Farmer1906 said:

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Hopefully that's just a covid scared and not a long term injury issue.

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Probably just close contact with someone who got it. Saw another tweet that quoted Dusty as saying it would be "a few days".

Playing devils advocate....at what point do we consider possibly taking a young arm close to the cusp but not there yet and try and flip them for a trusty veteran. Not necessarily saying Forrest, Garcia, Urquidy but maybe the tier right below that...?

Just a thought experiment for discussion

It's worth considering, but without knowing more detail it's a shot in the dark.

Tyler Ivey is older and behind a few guys. What would he fetch? Anything worth a damn? IDK. Are we taking on bad money when we do it? Our cap room below the luxury line ain't much.

Looking at the rest of the options in FA and it is slim.
Hamels is a hell no. He's done done.
Porcello is bad, but he could give you innings. I'd rather run a bunch of minor leagues out.
Cahill wouldn't be the worst option possibly. If Strom got him it ditch his sinker for his 4 seamer and continue to increase his curve and change up he might surprise. We've seen Storm do magic before.

Considerations in my thought process, and yes I had to look up names to create this thought process:

Looking for a servicable journeyman type like Wade Miley, a name most wouldnt think about but can eat innings reliably.

Abreu?
Ivey?
Solis?
Torres?
Scrubb?
Bielak?
N. Rodriguez?

mwm said:

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I say sign Fiers. Then, some of the players have a "blanket party" at his expense then cut him the next day as "physically unable to perform".

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I like your thinking...

May have missed it, but JBJ to Brewers for 2/$24.

Farmer1906 said:

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/houston-has-a-rotation-problem/

FAngraphs weighs in on our rotation now.

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What's with the big difference in Urquidy's ERA and FIP? Also, the article doesn't like Javier as a starter, citing only 2 pitches. I can't remember if he had a 3rd, but is there any word on him developing a reliable 3rd?

Cardinals throwing batting practice here in the 1st inning...5-0 Astros. On the 10th batter of the inning.

astros4545 said:

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Myles straw batting a solid .667

Ill live with Framber being out for the whole year if you tell me Straw bats .667 for the full season

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But who would we complain about then?

redline248 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/houston-has-a-rotation-problem/

FAngraphs weighs in on our rotation now.

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What's with the big difference in Urquidy's ERA and FIP? Also, the article doesn't like Javier as a starter, citing only 2 pitches. I can't remember if he had a 3rd, but is there any word on him developing a reliable 3rd?

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Ks were down
BBs were up

But we're looking at a 29 inning window after coming back from a long layoff.

Martes pitched today... forgot about him with the PED suspensions.

Random thought- someone posted earlier about what we have to trade for a starter if Valdez is out for the year. Remember that we traded Feliz, Musgrove, Moran and somebody for Cole. Luhnow isn't here anymore, but I trust Click until I don't. I wouldn't worry too much about minor league talent. Our window is still open, but it ain't moving upwards any longer.

Call me crazy but I'd take .220 BA from Straw if it meant a full season of Framber.

Framber is a stud. The offense will be fine with Straw putzing along in the 8 hole but the rotation will take quite the hit with Framber out.

Harder to mask the loss of a stud workhorse pitcher than it will be hiding a mediocre Straw in this lineup.

astros4545 said:

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Myles straw batting a solid .667

Ill live with Framber being out for the whole year if you tell me Straw bats .667 for the full season

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He was at 750 a couple of days ago. That boy needs to find a slumpbuster asap

Straw has a career 1.046 spring training OPS - Mr. March!

I'd settle for .250 and solid CF defense.

Farmer1906 said:

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redline248 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/houston-has-a-rotation-problem/

FAngraphs weighs in on our rotation now.

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What's with the big difference in Urquidy's ERA and FIP? Also, the article doesn't like Javier as a starter, citing only 2 pitches. I can't remember if he had a 3rd, but is there any word on him developing a reliable 3rd?

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Ks were down
BBs were up

But we're looking at a 29 inning window after coming back from a long layoff.

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Yeah, I'd say I'm expecting more from Urquidy than fan graphs.