*****Official Houston Astros 2020-2021 Offseason Thread*****

400,624 Views | 4530 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by tjack16
tjack16
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Blue Jays are trying their best to be the discount 2017-2018 Astros
3B Paul 97
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Aggie Mikey Reynolds hit a first inning bomb in an Australian league game on AT&T SportsNet. Decent ball for anyone needing a baseball fix with this cold weather.
Harry Dunne
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Marvin said:

ESPN posted their list of top 100 prospects heading into 2021. It's paywalled, but if you're looking for an Astro you won't be missing anything... not a single one.

That's rough, but it was always going to be time to pay the piper, and if we hadn't been as aggressive trying to win a second title everyone would be complaining that we'd have three rings if only Luhnow hadn't sat on his hands.

It's hard to have perspective at the tail end of several 100 W seasons, but in the history of the franchise, this team is still probably in the top 10 all-time as far as preseason odds to make it to a World Series and hopefully we can replenish the MiLB cupboard while staying competitive.
Mathguy64
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Can you be on the prospect list of you have a full season of service time? Most of our pitching staff last season would have been MiLB players considered as prospects. They all logged time. Most for the whole season.
Harry Dunne
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Exactly.

We are stacked with proven-ish young MLB ballplayers, and I'd rather have that than a bunch of lottery ticket prospects.
tjack16
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Instead of top prospects we have guys like Bregman, Correa, Tucker, Alvarez, Valdez, Javier, Taylor, and Peredes who are all under 27

I'll take that any day.
Deluxe
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Agreed. It's a little bit reminiscent of our 1997-2005 run. We started with a fully stocked, highly rated farm. Then there was the big unit trade in 1998, then we called up our elite untouchable prospects (Elarton, Ward and Berkman), then we called up an influx of pitching prospects in 00-01 (Miller, Oswalt, Hernandez, Redding). After all those guys were in the show, our farm was basically dead last in baseball and we never replenished it. We could only patch work it so long before misery began in the late 00s.

I feel like our current cycle is running about 20 years ahead of that cycle. We sit here in 2021 with plenty of reason to believe we can contend in the foreseeable future but the farm needs to be restocked to ensure the run doesn't end in a full-on tear down. We also need some dry powder for future trades to supplement the big league club when we're in position to potentially win a world series. The good news is that our current regime seems to understand the importance of a well stocked farm much more than Drayton/Purpura and we're willing to invest in it.

I think Leon and either Nova/Pena should be top 100 prospects by the end of 2021. And even after we leaned on rookies like Taylor, Paredes, Javier, Urquidy, etc last year, we still have a nice influx of pitching prospects yet to be deployed like Whitley, Solomon, Solis, and even Abreu. Despite not having any current top 100 prospects, I think we're still in decent position. We just need our restocking initiative over the next couple years to go smoothly.
Farmer1906
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Here is a nice little summary across the rankings.

Farmer1906
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Between Leon, Pena, Whitley, Nova, Lee (not saying they all hit) we should have a strong crop coming up the next couple years to backfill gaps.

I really like our core of vets/leaders of Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, Correa (if we sign him) and the next batch that are already key players of Tucker, Alvarez, Valdez, Javier, Parades.

The only real positions of need we'll have are 1st, catcher, CF, RF (in 2 years), maybe SS (hopefully not), and more pitching (always need more pitching though)
EastCoastAgNc
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W
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and it helps that the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers are wandering in the wilderness.

and the A's don't resign any of their free agents.

one interesting possibility...if the new CBA shortens the path to free agency by a year or two...that will send players out of Oakland even sooner
Farmer1906
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Lance wants to be an Astro for life like Correa. I don't want to break the bank, but he makes some sense to keep with Greinke gone after this year and all the big money ideally going to Correa.

MaxPower
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Farmer1906 said:

Lance wants to be an Astro for life like Correa. I don't want to break the bank, but he makes some sense to keep with Greinke gone after this year and all the big money ideally going to Correa.


There aren't many comps for a starter who can't throw 140 innings and isn't dominant. He's basically a poor mans rich hill from 2016-2018. I'd speculate that's his max value (4 years, $54 million).
Farmer1906
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Just spitballing here.

Sonny Gray from 2017-19 went 163, 117, 175 with ERAs of 3.55, 4.90, & 2.87. He got 3 year 31 M with a club option for 1 more year at 12 M.

That may be a fair deal for Lance.
Ag_07
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Fk it...If he wants to be here that bad give him a 10 year contract at the league minimum and tell him 'Lets roll!!'.
Farmer1906
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Another guy who may not be the worst comp is Evoldi. He cashed in with Boston after the killer postseason. He got 4 year 68 M. That was a pretty big overpay.

Maybe 11-14 per year over 3-4 years.

3 year 33 M to 4 year 56 M
MaxPower
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Farmer1906 said:

Another guy who may not be the worst comp is Evoldi. He cashed in with Boston after the killer postseason. He got 4 year 68 M. That was a pretty big overpay.

Maybe 11-14 per year over 3-4 years.

3 year 33 M to 4 year 56 M
The main difference is he's younger than all those guys so I see him getting 4 years.
Farmer1906
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He'll be 28, same as Eovaldi was when he got his deal. Gray was 30. He got undervalued. We should have signed him.
BMX Bandit
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Skeeters new league:

Triple-A West

East Division
Albuquerque Isotopes (Rockies)
El Paso Chihuahuas (Padres)
Oklahoma City Dodgers (Dodgers)
Round Rock Express (Rangers)
Sugar Land Skeeters (Astros)

West Division
Las Vegas Aviators (A's)
Reno Aces (D-backs)
Sacramento River (Giants)
Salt Lake Bees (Angels)
Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners)
MaxPower
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Farmer1906 said:

He'll be 28, same as Eovaldi was when he got his deal. Gray was 30. He got undervalued. We should have signed him.
Ryu got 4, $80. That might be the high end of his earning potential. He'd need a 180 inning campaign with a mid 3's ERA minimum to sniff that.
Farmer1906
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Too rich for my blood for sure. He's got way too many flaws.
Farmer1906
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Let's never do this.

This being bringing back a former star who's now a very below average starter yet still paying a chunk of change due to his name.
tjack16
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It seems the Cubs are content with their 2016 title and don't really care about going all in for another. They had a shot to be the top team in the NL from 2016-2020 with their young stars and payroll.
Farmer1906
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Yup. The central has not been good. It shouldn't have been hard.
Deluxe
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Farmer1906 said:

Lance wants to be an Astro for life like Correa. I don't want to break the bank, but he makes some sense to keep with Greinke gone after this year and all the big money ideally going to Correa.
It's interesting with Lance because there's a pretty wide range of potential outcomes for his next contract. IMO the worse year he has this year, the more likely he is to be back. If he has a really nice, injury-free season, he'll probably earn some offers we won't be able to match.

If you told me right now LMJ is going to have a top 5 AL Cy Young caliber season this year but he's going to walk at the end of the year, I'd take it. I think JV stays next year and takes his spot in the rotation.
Farmer1906
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Or we get the Correa & McCullers deal done in spring training. Then go on to win back to back to back WS titles.
redline248
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Farmer1906 said:

Or we get the Correa & McCullers deal done in spring training. Then go on to win back to back to back WS titles.
Let's do that
Deluxe
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Farmer1906 said:

Or we get the Correa & McCullers deal done in spring training. Then go on to win back to back to back WS titles.

The Correa part and the titles part seem possible. LMJ agreeing to an extension before the season does not.
EastCoastAgNc
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Farmer1906
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Not with that attitude.
Farmer1906
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This also snagged McHugh.

Deluxe
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Farmer1906 said:

Not with that attitude.

Don't worry, we're still best friends
Deluxe
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A couple solid signings for Tampa right there. Hope we're able to add another cheap vet arm or two.
MaxPower
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I'd love Rosenthal. Wouldn't be shocked if he goes for 2 in the 16-18 range. That's prolly out of our range but certainly gives buyers remorse on Baez.
agdaddy04
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Colin for that salary seems like a bargain
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