Fuzzy Dunlop said:
This is why I feel like analytics is overused in baseball. Some of the metrics are pretty good indicators of performance. However, some are complete BS. Had the "rival executive" cited Santana's career 2nd half performance vs. His current performance, I might would take heed. But, just to say he's having a career season now and will regress is speculative at best based on the given information.
Another thing is expected average, blah, blah, blah. Maybe he is in a better system for him. Maybe the hitting coach has connected with him better than others in his career. Maybe he has a better sense of camaraderie with his teammates. it could be anything. I think Texas management saw something in him at Spring Training and knew they could work with him.
He regressed a little in May but has come on strong in June. I'll eat my words if he comes crashing down this season but until then I hope he keeps doing what he is doing.
I'm not unique in expecting his early success to return to more reasonable numbers to what he has done historically... what nobody knows, is how far they would come down, and how would he respond.
I'll admit, I expected his numbers to drop... and then, at best...flatten out or continue a slow diminishing path.
What I've seen is he has worked hard, and seems to be just ahead of what he needs to correct and get back on track. Could be a number of intangibles, like you've mentioned. Woody and Andrus both seem to really like him, and Woody has that manager style where he let's you know he thinks you are better than you see yourself, tells you he expects a higher bar for your performance... and then you just find yourself better.
My boys have had private lessons for their instruments. The teacher always starts off with telling them, "Allow yourself to be better than you think you can be, and quicker than you might expect to get there."
My 1st asked him how much the teacher thought he should practice. The guy said, " How good do you want to be? If you want to be 3hrs/wk good... then practice 3hrs/wk. If you want to be the best you can be, practice until you can't make a mistake."
Kind of a sidebar, but his philosophy is that most people practice until they feel they can get it right. His philosophy is practice until you can't get it wrong.
I think Santana may not be a HoF or an All-Star, but could be a very good every day player.
