Buck Compton said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Snell extended for 5/50

That seems like a steal for Tampa

Oh yeah...Keuchel still wants $100M contract

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There's gotta be some huge escalators there, or else it starts with this year and only buys one free agency year. Snell seems to be selling himself short here.

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I believe I saw it only bought one FA year. Seems like a pretty good deal for both sides.

Ag_07 said:

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Snell extended for 5/50

That seems like a steal for Tampa

Oh yeah...Keuchel still wants $100M contract

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Not that this makes Keuchel's demands any more realistic, but it's not a fair comparison. Like Milkman mentioned above, it's only a 1 year extension beyond where he would have been under team control. He was set to make $573k this year and then would have been in arbitration from 2020-2022. All this does is guarantee the money he likely would have made in arbitration, and in exchange he gives the Rays a large discount in 2023, assuming he's still healthy and pitching well. It's really just a hedge by both sides.

Snell's new salary in his final year of what would have been arbitration (2022) is $12.5M. Cole in his last year @ $13.5M is a good example for perspective. His final year (or what would have been his first year of FA), he "only" makes $16M, but he's also got the guarantee that he ends up with enough money to take care of him for life if disaster strikes...and if he stays healthy and dominant he is still due a fat payday at age 30 entering free agency.

Is starting pitching really worth gigantic contracts now? It seems like they are used less and less. You are paying big money for a guy who pitches 5-7 innings every 5 games. I guess it is still huge in the playoffs. But when I look back at the last three champions it was the high-powered offenses that won. They had decent starting pitching and bullpens but they weren't dominant.

Keuchel and Snell are not comparable pitchers, but just for fun:

Snell had his breakout season a year earlier (than free agency) than Dallas did...but let's say that the Astros had signed Dallas to a deal similar to this in 2014...What Dallas ended up getting in arbitration is nearly identical to the salaries Snell will be guaranteed, and then we'd be going into this season paying Dallas $16M, which is obviously less than what he's looking for, but IMO would be fair and may be close to what he ends up getting.

So I guess you could say that Keuchel's career so far is the O/U for whether the Rays or Snell are getting good value out of this.

Farmer1906 said:

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For anyone not listening to McHugh's pod on here, I would greatly recommend it. His most recent one with Jeff Passan is awesome.

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Agreed. Great discussion.

https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/amp/Astros-Forrest-Whitley-debut-Minute-Maid-Park-13706135.php

The 2020 pitching staff will be throwing the exhibition games.

Wiggletrace said:

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Extension talks have happened with Cole & JV.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/astros-rumors-extensions-justin-verlander-gerrit-cole.html

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Wonder what the Market price would be for JV? In wouldn't mind seeing a 2 yr deal for him. Could we do that at $38-$42M total?

Also, we do have a lot of young guys in the pipe. It would be good for us to keep a vet like JV or Cole from them to learn from.

I'd say 2 years 48 for Verlander. I'm thinking Cole waits until after the season to make a decision.

Didn't someone say Cole was a big homebody who wants to go back to SoCal?

Mr.Bond said:

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Didn't someone say Cole was a big homebody who wants to go back to SoCal?

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In his appearance on McCugh's podcast, he says very plainly that he and his family love SoCal for several reasons. I'd place a decent wager that the Padres will make a big run for him, but both LA teams will likely be in the mix as well.

I'd be shocked if we were able to resign Cole. I think he'll sign with the Yankees or one of the LA teams.

Here is a good baseline of what Cole could try to demand

we make the best offer, we'll get him. I don't think we're ready to pay him what the market will demand.

Doubt Yankees. Padres or Angels are thevlead in location. We lead in the team dynamics and best chance to win now.

Cole grew up a Yankees fan. I definitely think SoCal is the most likely landing spot, but to grow up cheering for the Yankees and understanding all the mystique around that organization, I think getting the chance to play for them will get serious consideration from him.

The Red Sox payroll is ridiculous.

Price - 32 per until 2022
Evoldi - 17 per until 2022
Sale - 30 per until 2024

That's 79 M locked up between 3 starters for the next 4 years. In that time they're going to have to pay Betts, Bogerts, Martinez (assume he ops out). That's their core. They're going to hit 300 M to pay them all and fill out the rest of the roster.

I think it's more likely that JV stays for a 2 or 3-year deal than the Astros sign Cole to a 6 or 7-year deal (that he will probably require)

and regarding the Angels their payroll situation is a mess thru the 2020 season.

Trout, Pujols, Upton, Simmons, and Cozart will make around $125 MM combined. And of course none of them are pitchers.

Pujols is finally off the books after the 2021 season.

I guess LAAA could go big for Cole...and just bite the bullet for 2 seasons of massive payroll

Yikes... so basically wants $100M for 3 years.

bearkatag15 said:

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I'm ok with that. We need veteran pitching presence for the guys coming up starting next year. I don't think there's any chance Cole re-signs.

so we're talking $33 MM per season for 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Correa is a free agent after the 2021 season.

maybe the Astros could handle 1 season (2022) of $200 MM+ payroll

(not sure where this would leave Springer for the next 3 years)

bearkatag15 said:

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Yikes... so basically wants $100M for 3 years.

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I'd be much more willing to give that to Cole than JV, but Cole will want more than 3 years.

bearkatag15 said:

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Seems like a trade move

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The importance of locking down Cole and JV cannot be understated. With those 2 guys in your rotation you ALWAYS have a chance in the playoffs.

Get it done Luhnow.

He gone...and if you read the article, he also sounds kinda unhappy with the organization. Hopefully that doesn't become a dividing factor in the clubhouse.

dmtoney said:

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He gone...

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We better just trade him now so we don't let him walk at the end of the year for nothing.