Deluxe said:

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Guessing Keuchel prefers the Fangraph WAR calc to all the other calcs

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If it comes down to FIP vs ERA, which does a better job of showing how a pitcher has performed?

wtf is Bregman wearing??

JV is outclassing them

Farmer1906 said:

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Deluxe said:

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Guessing Keuchel prefers the Fangraph WAR calc to all the other calcs

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If it comes down to FIP vs ERA, which does a better job of showing how a pitcher has performed?

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Depends on a lot of factors. Like a previous poster pointed out, sometimes ERA could be a preferred metric for a ground ball pitcher like Keuchel. My comment was referring to the odd disconnect between his fWAR and bWAR.

With all that said, I have very very little interest in debating which stats are best.

Aggie buddy of mine is there tonight and overheard a story from Lance about the 24 curveball game. He said he hyper extended his knee in warmups and it hurt too much to throw his fastball so he could only throw the hook. It actually makes sense rather than some elaborate trickery.

Farmer1906 said:

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Deluxe said:

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Guessing Keuchel prefers the Fangraph WAR calc to all the other calcs

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If it comes down to FIP vs ERA, which does a better job of showing how a pitcher has performed?

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Im not sure what point you're trying to make, but FIP doesn't describe outcomes at all. It is, however, much better at predicting next year's ERA than this year's ERA is.

DVC2010 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Deluxe said:

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Guessing Keuchel prefers the Fangraph WAR calc to all the other calcs

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If it comes down to FIP vs ERA, which does a better job of showing how a pitcher has performed?

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Im not sure what point you're trying to make, but FIP doesn't describe outcomes at all. It is, however, much better at predicting next year's ERA than this year's ERA is.

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I think you're mixing up FIP & xFIP. xFIP is the one that normalizes home runs to better predict.

FIP is a strong metric and I think it improves WAR as a metric too, but there is not perfect metric (yet).

A good FIP combined with high soft contact and/or high ground ball contract = a damn good pitcher. The FIP covers HR, BB, HBP, & Ks and the others covers batted balls not over the fence.

MLB Starters in 2018
Dallas 21st in FIP, 1st GB%, & 5th in Soft Contact %.

Farmer1906 said:

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DVC2010 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Deluxe said:

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Guessing Keuchel prefers the Fangraph WAR calc to all the other calcs

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If it comes down to FIP vs ERA, which does a better job of showing how a pitcher has performed?

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Im not sure what point you're trying to make, but FIP doesn't describe outcomes at all. It is, however, much better at predicting next year's ERA than this year's ERA is.

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I think you're mixing up FIP & xFIP. xFIP is the one that normalizes home runs to better predict.

FIP is a strong metric and I think it improves WAR as a metric too, but there is not perfect metric (yet).

A good FIP combined with high soft contact and/or high ground ball contract = a damn good pitcher. The FIP covers HR, BB, HBP, & Ks and the others covers batted balls not over the fence.

MLB Starters in 2018
Dallas 21st in FIP, 1st GB%, & 5th in Soft Contact %.

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FIP and xFIP are both really rough metrics, but they are also much better predictors of future performance than ERA is.

FIP estimates ERA by normalizing BABIP to league average. xFIP also normalizes the HR/FB rate.

For a pitcher who gives up a lot of soft contact, you would expect FIP to underestimate performance; the soft contact results in fewer hits per balls in play than average. For someone who gives up lots of hard contact (and maybe gives up lots of home runs in a pitcher's park), you would expect xFIP to overestimate performance because the type of batted balls he's giving up should result in more home runs than average.

Both metrics attempt to calculate out the luck and randomness involved in swatting a tiny ball into a huge field of play, but as you said, they are pretty far from perfect because the pitcher does affect the batted ball profile in some ways.

I'm pretty sure we aren't actually arguing about anything here.

I agree that I'd love to see Dallas back. His problem is that hitters across the league have been adding more uppercut to their swings to combat exactly the kind of pitches that are Keychel's bread and butter. He's no less talented than he was a few years ago, but the game has moved past him a little bit.

Crane hinted about the possibility of bringing back Dallas and Marwin last night. I absolutely would take Marwin back in a heartbeat. Fingers crossed

Frok said:

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Crane hinted about the possibility of bringing back Dallas and Marwin last night. I absolutely would take Marwin back in a heartbeat. Fingers crossed

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What role would you expect him to play?

Farmer1906 said:

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FIP is a strong metric and I think it improves WAR as a metric too, but there is not perfect metric (yet)..

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I think when you use the word "metric" three times in one sentence it's time to start a separate thread to argue about stats.

I'm with you on Keuchel though. I think he is under-appreciated because he has declined some & doesn't have the Ks & consistent dominance of Verlander or Cole but he's still a solid starter & more importantly a damn good pitcher in the playoffs. I don't need any advanced metrics to figure that out. I'd love to have him for another year or two.

But I want no part of him at age 35 on a big contract unless he learns how to throw a knuckleball.

Thinking about making my first Astros road trip this season (besides Arlington). My choices are LAA or St Louis.

Anybody been to either of these parks and have any reviews?

tjholley16 said:

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Thinking about making my first Astros road trip this season (besides Arlington). My choices are LAA or St Louis.

Anybody been to either of these parks and have any reviews?

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A group of us do a baseball trip every year. St. Louis is, by far, one of the most boring cities we've been
to, but I agree, it's a great stadium and really good fans.

I just don't see where Marwin fits anymore. We have Brantley in the OF & Tucker will be fighting for PT come May/June. We traded for Diaz to fill the IF utility role. For the money Marwin should command, it doesn't make sense to bring him in to compete for 4th OF, utility IF, & maybe DH.

Agreed

Crane has learned how to play the P.R. game.

there is obviously no room for Marwin

Quote:

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Jeff Luhnow, in response to a fan's question about Marwin Gonzalez: "I'm one of his biggest fans, I'll just leave it at that."

Alex Bregman (elbow) said he is not hitting yet but acknowledged he is being "held back" by the training staff, who've said from the beginning they want to take the recovery slow. In the interim, Bregman said he is watching video of every pitch he saw last season.

Myles Straw is telling fans a story of his locker placement in the big league clubhouse. He's between Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. During the playoffs, Straw would have to wait in his towel when he finished showering because the crowds of media blocked his locker entrance

Justin Verlander, who is a free agent after this season, said the topic of a contract extension with the Astros "has not even been breached." "I don't know what their organizational plans are. It's something I wouldn't be opposed to."

Verlander on #MLB free agency: "The biggest detriment to our game right now is the non-competitiveness of two-thirds of the league. I think that's why you're seeing free agents not get signed."

Verlander said players will "need to make adjustments on our side" if this trend continues in #MLB free agency.

Verlander said he would "definitely advocate" for the #Astros to bring back Marwin and Keuchel, if they received what they're worth in FA.

Verlander on Marwin and Keuchel: "I would love those guys to come back but I want them to get a good deal. ... If the Astros want to bring them back, not only for what they've done for this organization but how talented they are, I think they should do that."

Bregman said he was also thinking the Astros would sweep the Red Sox in the 2018 ALCS after Astros went up 1-0 at Fenway.

Bregman said #Astros are looking forward to continuing what they did in 2017: Winning a World Series.

Verlander: "I'm working on a legacy that I want to leave in the game. I definitely want to win another one (Cy Young). To have the year that I did, to have the body of work that I did, that's what's most important, when you look at the end goal."

Verlander on finishing a close second in 2018 AL Cy Young voting: "I'm happy with the body of work. It's, I guess, it's a little bit of -- I don't know how to say it. A little bit kick in the butt, kick in the ass, to be so close, so many times."

Correa said he hopes #Astros are able to bring Marwin and Keuchel back

Altuve said he's surprised that Marwin Gonzalez is still unsigned. Thought after end of last season he would sign very quickly.

"What is your position about trading top prospects to get a starter here?" Jeff Luhnow: "I did it twice already. And I'm prepared to do it again."

Jeff Luhnow: "A healthy Correa, a healthy Bregman, a healthy Altuve, we win the division. No question about it."

Jeff Luhnow said the Astros have been "runner-up or third" in a few trades that have already been made. "We've tried and we'll continue to try."

Jeff Luhnow said there is a "decent likelihood" the Astros make another move prior to spring training. Talks are not limited to starting pitching. Luhnow said the Astros are still exploring the reliever market and some position players.

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I love Bregman on the cover. To me, that would be the coolest thing ever as an athlete - even better than Wheaties or Sports Illustrated.

Harper could be off the board

I hate random twitter accounts trying to beat everyone to news.