I'd like to take this time to bring up a graphic from MLB network from a couple years back. It suggested the Astros trade for Machado. The trade had the Astros sending Alex Bergman, Derek Fisher, Francis Martes and Forrest Whitley.

Wonder who Jeter wants from the Dodgers for Realmuto?

Guessing something like this: Seager, Buehler, Bellinger and the Dodgers' top 2 prospects

Craig Mush!

At least pretend to make an effort with those percentages.

shano0603 said:

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I'd like to take this time to bring up a graphic from MLB network from a couple years back. It suggested the Astros trade for Machado. The trade had the Astros sending Alex Bergman, Derek Fisher, Francis Martes and Forrest Whitley.

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That reminds when the Marlins asked for Correa & Springer for Stanton.

bearkatag15 said:

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I've been a Keuchel basher, but if the price is right...

Ag_07 said:

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I'd love to have Dallas back. Just not at the number or length him and Boras want.

What wold be a reasonable deal? Something like a 2 year deal $32MM guaranteed (18/14) with a player or club option for year 3?

Full disclosure...I'm watching Astros playback, am a few bourbons in, and just set down Astroball so at this moment I feel like I'm a fully qualified MLB GM.

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If you want Keuchel short term, I think it's more like this

1yr - $25M
2yr - $48M

I think those are the types of numbers he would need to go short term

Of course, I base this on nothing except nothing

That feels right. Maybe 3 year 67 M. It's still less than Jake got.

it could only be a max 3-year deal so Keuchel is off the books by the time Correa hits free agency.

but it might mean that either JV or Cole is let walk after the 2019 season

I don't exactly know why but I think Dallas values the guaranteed years over the total money.

But I think Luhnow rather pay a lot for a year two rather than being locked in long term.

That's why I think the player option could be used to lessen the money and sweeten the deal.

It's possible that I'm in the minority here but I don't really want Kuechel back unless it's like a one year deal (two tops) where he's extra motivated to have a great season or two and then try free agency again.

At this point, I think he's better than just an "innings eater" but he's not elite either. He was the 51st ranked WAR pitcher last year and that was in a contract year where he should have been extra motivated. So I'm not willing to pay a premium price on a long term deal for his production. Sounds like no other team is either.

I also think if he signed a longer deal for a discounted price to stay with the Astros, he'd be pretty whiny (and he already whines enough about bad luck and seeing-eye singles haha).

For the same price as Keuchel, I'd rather go into the season with what we got, give Whitley his shot in June/July and then use the savings from not paying Keuchel to add a big bat/arm (whichever we ultimately need more) at the deadline.

Deluxe said:

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It's possible that I'm in the minority here but I don't really want Kuechel back unless it's like a one year deal (two tops) where he's extra motivated to have a great season or two and then try free agency again.

At this point, I think he's better than just an "innings eater" but he's not elite either. He was the 51st ranked WAR pitcher last year and that was in a contract year where he should have been extra motivated. So I'm not willing to pay a premium price on a long term deal for his production. Sounds like no other team is either.

I also think if he signed a longer deal for a discounted price to stay with the Astros, he'd be pretty whiny (and he already whines enough about bad luck and seeing-eye singles haha).

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Yeah I think Dallas is difficult to determine how effective he will be going forward. It always seems like he has a bad start to the game and then settles in. Thus I think he's still a good innings-eater serviceable pitcher. However he is no longer a guy I want to start in a big playoff game.

Just ignore the thread I started on this, why don't you?

I agree with the posts above. Dallas can still be effective, but would definitely be defying the odds by improving over the next 4-5 years. MLBTR predicts a 4-year $82M contract. In order for that to be a fair value to both sides, his next 4 years would have to be an exact average of his last 3 years. So if you give him what he is expected to get, you're gambling on a pitcher with an 89 mph fastball staying healthy and not getting worse between ages 31-34. That's just not a good bet for a club.

I think the guy valuing the long-term deal the most is probably the very savvy Boras, who understands that if his client takes a 1 or 2-year deal and declines over that time, he's not going to have a ton of leverage entering his age 33 season on a well-defined downward performance trend. I know projections are garbage, but most projections show him having a similar year this year to last year...so what would be considered "fair" value for that would be low $20Ms for one year.

IMO the biggest thing in his favor is that he has a ton of postseason experience and has been very good when it counts. Take away that terrible 2015 game 5 relief appearance against the Royals and he has a 2.79 ERA over 9 postseason starts. I think that should count for a lot.

bearkatag15 said:

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Wait..... Majestic is gone?!?

the Yahoo Sports tweet also says footwear, which looks to not be true based on the official announcement.

Way too many players with endorsements to wear New Balance, Adidas, etc. They would not be able to mandate Nike cleats.

By 51st you mean 19th.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

Lets think of way to spend $29 million for next year that can help the team...

CFTXAG10 said:

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The only way he's taking only 29 a year as If the deal is for 12 years.

$29mm in 2019
+
$45mm in 2020
=
Back to Back World champ

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-baseball-mlb-mia-lad-realmuto-idUSKCN1PJ1WF

Quote:

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Jon Heyman of Fancred reported top catching prospect Keibert Ruiz was expected to be part of the return for Realmuto.

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Rumor on Realmuto to Dodgers for Ruiz (top catching prospect) - Rated #39 on mlb.com's top prospect list

Seems obvious what Harper should do:

Sign 3 yr/$100mm deal with Astros
Win rings
Become free agent after new CBA at age 29
Sign 7 yr/$245mm in 2022 with highest bidder

Effectively make $345mm over 10 years and have 3 rings.

Guessing Keuchel prefers the Fangraph WAR calc to all the other calcs

Did you guys see this from:

https://climbingtalshill.com/2019/01/25/breaking-astros-current-2019-payroll/

Year-by-year 40-man Year End figures, 2013-18

• 2013: $29,270,160 (30)
• 2014: $54,689,189 (29)
• 2015: $82,395,216 (27)
• 2016: $124,363,133 (18)
• 2017: $140,475,350 (19)
• 2018: $187,386,304 (7)

Here is the breakdown of the current payroll commitments based on the 40-man roster-competitive balance tax-AAV from Cot's Baseball Contracts; please note that Cot's uses an estimate for arbitration-eligible players, club control, 40-man players-minors, and player benefits.

• Justin Verlander: $25,714,286
• Michael Brantley: $16,000,000
• Josh Reddick: $13,000,000
• George Springer: $12,000,000
• Yuli Gurriel: $9,500,000
• Jose Altuve: $23,357,143
• Joe Smith: $7,500,000
• Roberto Osuna: $6,500,000
• Collin McHugh: $5,800,000
• Hector Rondon: $4,250,000
• Will Harris: $4,225,000
• Lance McCullers Jr.: $4,100,000
• Brad Peacock: $3,110,000
• Ryan Pressly: $2,900,000
• Jake Marisnick: $2,212,500
• Payment from Detroit Tigers: -$8,000,000
• Arbitration-eligible players: $18,612,500 includes Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, and Chris Devenski
• Club-control: $3,450,000
• 40-man players-minors: $2,250,000
• Est. player benefits: $14,500,000

Projected 40-man CBT payroll: $176,731,429
Amount under threshold: $29,628,571

While I doubt that the Astros ever enter the top-three teams of payroll, it isn't unreasonable to expect the club to have a top-ten payroll going forward. I am not optimistic that Houston will sign all of their young core players (Cole, Springer, Correa, and Bregman) to long-term contracts, but I do believe they ought to retain at least two of them when the time comes. Based on the above figures, the Astros still have room to add another impact player or two without entering luxury tax territory in 2019.

Beyond the upcoming 2019 season, the Astros have quite a bit of flexibility in store. The only long-term contract currently on the books is Altuve, although I do expect another player or two to join him next offseason. It'll be interesting to see how the pay structure in baseball changes when the current CBA expires in December 2021. The Astros, like everyone else, will have to adjust if any noteworthy changes in the CBA take place.
*******************************************************************************************************

This make me think that we have such a limited time with this team. NOW is the time to make the deal for Realmuto and NOT resign any 1/2 ass pitcher to a long term deal, but I trust Luhnow and Crane.

Deluxe said:

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Guessing Keuchel prefers the Fangraph WAR calc to all the other calcs

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Probably not. fWAR is based on FIP. bWAR is based on ERA. Keuchel's ERA tends to outperform his FIP because he gets a lot of soft contact.

DVC2010 said:

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Deluxe said:

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Guessing Keuchel prefers the Fangraph WAR calc to all the other calcs

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Probably not. fWAR is based on FIP. bWAR is based on ERA. Keuchel's ERA tends to outperform his FIP because he gets a lot of soft contact.

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I don't disagree with you at a theoretical level, but Keuchel was 19th ranked pitcher in fWAR and 55th ranked pitcher in bWAR... hence my comment.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-value-pitching.shtml