That starting 5 scares the crap out of me

Ag_07 said:

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That starting 5 scares the crap out of me

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I don't believe Cole and JV will regress that far. I'd bet their ERA's are in the high 2's to low 3's at worst.

There has to be an addition to the rotation in the form of an above average #3 starter. McHugh should be 4th in the rotation with James/Whitley/Peacock/TBD finishing things out in the 5th spot.

Completely agree.

And yeah I was talking about just those 5 being our opening day rotation.

I didn't pay too close attention to those numbers as I think most of them well end up being off with some by quite a bit (and that goes for the offense and pitching projections).

honestly i think that's the most important thing for the 2019 season.

Altuve & Correa getting back to their 2016 / 2017 form. If they do, the 'stros win 95 games fairly comfortably

https://www.mlb.com/news/most-improved-farm-systems-in-2018/c-302225978

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These 5 farm systems improved the most in '18

Here are the four other farm systems that improved the most over the course of 2018:

Astros

Of the five teams mentioned in this story, the Astros have the best farm system. They possess the top tandem of position and pitching prospects in outfielder Kyle Tucker and right-hander Forrest Whitley, though those two have been in the organization together for a few years already.

Astros' Top 30

Houston traded several intriguing farmhands in July for veteran reinforcements, but still saw its system stock surge thanks to the emergence of the likes of right-handers Josh James (who led the entire Minors in strikeout rate with 13.5 per nine innings), Corbin Martin, Bryan Abreu and Brandon Bielak. Outfielder Seth Beer became the system's second-best position prospect when he signed as a first-rounder in June, then hit .304/.389/.496 while reaching Class A Advanced in his pro debut.

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bearkatag15 said:

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https://www.mlb.com/news/most-improved-farm-systems-in-2018/c-302225978

Quote:

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These 5 farm systems improved the most in '18

Here are the four other farm systems that improved the most over the course of 2018:

Astros

Of the five teams mentioned in this story, the Astros have the best farm system. They possess the top tandem of position and pitching prospects in outfielder Kyle Tucker and right-hander Forrest Whitley, though those two have been in the organization together for a few years already.

Astros' Top 30

Houston traded several intriguing farmhands in July for veteran reinforcements, but still saw its system stock surge thanks to the emergence of the likes of right-handers Josh James (who led the entire Minors in strikeout rate with 13.5 per nine innings), Corbin Martin, Bryan Abreu and Brandon Bielak. Outfielder Seth Beer became the system's second-best position prospect when he signed as a first-rounder in June, then hit .304/.389/.496 while reaching Class A Advanced in his pro debut.

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Eggplant.emoji

Besides Whitley and Tucker, I'm excited to see Martin and Beer.

2016...McHugh missed most of 2017 with the shoulder injury.

It's not far fetched that Jose and Carlos reproduce their 2017 numbers moreso Altuve. I think 2017 is closer to his career numbers. I'm not worried about Jose.

Carlos is a bigger question mark. He needs to produce at MVP levels because in my opinion he's beyond the young guy with potential. He has a ring, he's got the experience, and it's time to turn potential into results. This is a big year for him to prove that he's that generational player we think he is.

bearkatag15 said:

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Passing on Cruz makes a lot more sense now

bearkatag15 said:

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Not to crap on Pedro's parade, but Keuchel is represented by Boras as well.

Edit: actually... Britton might be the client that could be a match given past interest.

Boras represents A LOT of players.

And with Keuchel still wanting a 5 year deal I'd say there's a better chance he was talking Harper than Keuchel.

Or he was going to meet a certain player at the gate..we should find out where Mark Berman is tonight...

bearkatag15 said:

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He's here to meet with his new client Tyler White

Yeah, let's sign Harper and really overload the outfield.

Just curious....which 1-2 punch in baseball would you take over JV-Cole?

We were spoiled last year with JV-Cole-Keuchel-LMJ, but few teams ever get that kind of rotation.

If we can get a bat in FA, I think we'll be in position to focus on the rotation via trade. And since we really only need a solid 3/4 type, we don't need to swing a Cole type deal to go into next year with a very solid starting 5.

iBrad said:

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Yeah, let's sign Harper and really overload the outfield.

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Brantley to 1B
Yuli DH
Harper RF
Tucker LF
Trade Reddick
Profit

(Actually I'm not sure if that would be a profit because it would be very expensive)

Morton is the one we're really going to miss. Keuchel and LMJ combined for a 22-17 record. They were very inconsistent and, as usual for Lance, injured. From a pure wins standpoint, I think we can replace them rather easily.

But, predicting wins and losses for pitchers is kind of pointless. Too many non-pitching variables at play. Verlander could regress across the board and still win more games if the offense shows up for him this season.

iBrad said:

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Morton is the one we're really going to miss. Keuchel and LMJ combined for a 22-17 record. They were very inconsistent and, as usual for Lance, injured. From a pure wins standpoint, I think we can replace them rather easily.

But, predicting wins and losses for pitchers is kind of pointless. Too many non-pitching variables at play. Verlander could regress across the board and still win more games if the offense shows up for him this season.

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Judging a pitcher of wins and losses is ridiculous.

They were both quality pitchers. In the AL (starters with 100 IP) LMJ was 15th/13th in FIP & xFIP. Dallas was 20th/20th. Those the #2 types pitchers for most teams.

Wiggletrace said:

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bearkatag15 said:

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Not to crap on Pedro's parade, but Keuchel is represented by Boras as well.

Edit: actually... Britton might be the client that could be a match given past interest.

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Represents Marwin, Keuchel, Altuve, McCullers, Britton... list goes on and on

"Marwin staying with the Astros!?!?" would generate about .05% of the clicks, 1/2 of them from us dudes posting here!

bearkatag15 said:

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If these pitching numbers are correct then we are in trouble here too...

92 - 70 is the projected team record based on pitchers win/loss records.

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It's always fun to look at the preseason projections from last season to see how far off they are for most players. My main objection to this projection is that all of our relievers' ERAs are so poor. It seems like these projections are assuming regression to the mean rather than continued development and improvement. It's probably based on some standard aging curve but pitchers tend to improve here even at an age when most pitchers are declining. #Strom

92 wins sounds about right though for the roster as currently constructed. But I seriously doubt that we will let all of our free agents go without signing similar talent, don't you think?

As mentioned by others, Dallas and Lance were inconsistent and their 2018 production won't be that hard to replace. CFM will be missed. Either way, doubtful the starting rotation will be as strong as last year, but considering it was maybe the greatest rotation of this generation, that's to be expected.

The hitting shouldn't be as hard to improve and hopefully that will come from all the guys that had down years last year playing more like themselves.

Also "wins" can come from different sources, they don't have to come from direct replacements. A big misconception is that we have to replace guys we are losing with guys just like them. For example, I don't think it's going to be difficult to make up for Marwin and Gattis' production even though it might not come strictly from two other players.

TL;DR We may not be able to replace CFM and we may not be able to improve the 2018 pitching staff, but there are a few spots in the lineup that we should be able to improve both through acquisitions and just by returners showing up.

Morosi tweet:

Source: #Astros still interested in J.T. Realmuto, but #Marlins have yet to move off Forrest Whitley or Kyle Tucker as the centerpiece of a possible trade. Thus, there's been no traction in trade discussions. @MLBNetwork @MLB

Farmer1906 said:

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iBrad said:

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Morton is the one we're really going to miss. Keuchel and LMJ combined for a 22-17 record. They were very inconsistent and, as usual for Lance, injured. From a pure wins standpoint, I think we can replace them rather easily.

But, predicting wins and losses for pitchers is kind of pointless. Too many non-pitching variables at play. Verlander could regress across the board and still win more games if the offense shows up for him this season.

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Judging a pitcher of wins and losses is ridiculous.

They were both quality pitchers. In the AL (starters with 100 IP) LMJ was 15th/13th in FIP & xFIP. Dallas was 20th/20th. Those the #2 types pitchers for most teams.

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I wasn't judging them. There was angst over won/loss projections for 2019, so just pointing out that from a wins and losses perspective, those guys can be replaced.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/tradefa-rumblings-ms-encarnacion-haniger-rays-chisox-astros-rangers-yanks.html

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Trade/FA Rumblings: M's, Encarnacion, Haniger, Rays, ChiSox, Astros, Rangers, Yanks

December 28th, 2018 at 10:56pm CST By Connor Byrne

The Mariners have grown "increasingly confident" they'll be able to trade designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion before their spring training opens, Jon Morosi of MLB.com says (video link). Encarnacion's market has picked up in the wake of the Twins' agreement with Nelson Cruz, whose suitors are now turning to the former. The Rays, White Sox and Astros are each "involved" on both Encarnacion and Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, according to Morosi.

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Since 2012 EE has averaged 109 RBI and 38 HRs per year... and that spray chart is a wet dream for the Crawford boxes... he's expensive... very expensive, but we are in a win now mode so screw it. Go get the big hitter to round this lineup out.

EE would be a great fit. However, SEA will want to get a decent haul and at least more than they gave up for him and you'd be trading within the division.

I was hoping he would be the ones to land him from CLE.

EE would be like a super Nelson Cruz, would love to get him. Theres a lot more risk of drop going into the 40s than there is at 35

Basketball and Chain said:

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Just curious....which 1-2 punch in baseball would you take over JV-Cole?

We were spoiled last year with JV-Cole-Keuchel-LMJ, but few teams ever get that kind of rotation.

If we can get a bat in FA, I think we'll be in position to focus on the rotation via trade. And since we really only need a solid 3/4 type, we don't need to swing a Cole type deal to go into next year with a very solid starting 5.

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I'd take JV and Cole for sure..... my point in everything was saying some are automatically expecting all our players to continue to keep performing at the same level or to increase in performance. At some point a decrease in production will take place. We need insurance we some proven MLB players. Not just banking on our prospects to step right in because that is never a sure thing

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/12/29/baseball-top-free-agents-this-year-and-beyond/a538V444ifBDiTkVE3BNjI/story.html?p1=Team_LeadArticle

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4. Robbie Ray, LHP, Diamondbacks Ray may be the next Diamondback to be traded. There is word that teams are calling about his availability. The Phillies and Astros are very interested. Ray, 27, went 6-2 in 24 starts last season. He earned $3.95 million and is arbitration eligible for the second time.

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