If Kershaw wants to win the WS, he isn't going to sign with the Rangers. But his motivations may be different, so who knows. I think he stays with the Dodgers.

Safe at Home said:

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Anyone remember what they were doing this date one year ago?

Hint: it wasn't during the off season.


Game 5

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On a plane to Dubai having to watch gamecast

Safe at Home said:

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Anyone remember what they were doing this date one year ago?

Hint: it wasn't during the off season.


Game 5

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Oh man, that damn Game 5 was brutal. Thank god the payoff was a win.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/25113522/boston-red-sox-houston-astros-installed-2019-co-favorites

F it...If we're pipe dreaming about Kershaw I rather make a run at Harper.

Resign Chuck, let Marwin walk, then you can trade Tucker for Realmuto.

You think Farmer 1906 is going to take that well?

AgFan1999 said:

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You think Farmer 1906 is going to take that well?

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Ag_07 said:

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F it...If we're pipe dreaming about Kershaw I rather make a run at Harper.

Resign Chuck, let Marwin walk, then you can trade Tucker for Realmuto.

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I would do that yesterday. If I were independently wealthy, owned the club and wanted to win the WS.

I'm not, I don't, but I want to.

maca1028 said:

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Offseason topic...
Would you rather be a dodgers fan having to watch your team lose the WS 2 years in a row at home
or
A rangers fan

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I rather not watch another baseball game for the rest of my life* than become an effin' Dodgers fan.

*My favorite sport is baseball.

Deluxe said:

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iBrad said:

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Dodgers will go for three in a row next year.

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Early 90s Buffalo Bills

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Only two franchises have lost three consecutive World Series in a row, both occurred over 100 years ago, so we would be witnessing history:
Detroit Tigers 1907-09
New York Giants 1911-13

Huh. I thought it would have been more likely that the Astros would give a QO to Marwin and not Keuchel

Yep. Means they think it's more likely that Dallas chunks deuces and Marwin stays.

Not that it's gonna happen that Marwin stays but just it's more of a shoe in that Dallas walks.

What is the compensation if Dallas rejects the QO?

texpert68 said:

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What is the compensation if Dallas rejects the QO?

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I believe that you would get a pick between the 1st and 2nd round, please correct me if that is wrong.

jkag89 said:

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Deluxe said:

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iBrad said:

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Dodgers will go for three in a row next year.

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Early 90s Buffalo Bills

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Only two franchises have lost three consecutive World Series in a row, both occurred over 100 years ago, so we would be witnessing history:
Detroit Tigers 1907-09
New York Giants 1911-13

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Add to that, I don't think Marwin is worthy of a top 50 AAV. I know that AAV isn't always a measure of value, but I suspect the Astros are wary of having him accept it a la Rasmus a couple of years ago.

So if you take those two together and sign him to a multi year deal under the QO amount, I can see that as a strong possibility.

I could be wrong, but I just don't see Marwin worth $18M/year, even with the salary progression in the sport.


Interesting side note - the Nats appear to be on the hook for $75MM next year to just Strasburg and Scherzer alone. Wow

IMO it means Marwin is more likely gone.

It wouldn't the dumbest idea in the world for Marwin to accept 1yr/$18mm if offered. It's above his per year market value. He could accept, try to have a bounce back year offensively in 2019 and then sign his long term deal next winter. A risky move but could payoff.

It seems to me that we didn't want to risk him accepting. Who knows what the front office has planned this offseason but I have to think having Marwin on payroll for $18mm next year would hinder our flexibility to improve the squad elsewhere.

Could be wrong.

Yea. It's possible that the Rasmus situation had a small impact on the Marwin decision.

so where is Keuchel going to end up?

Boston or New York?

or will it depend on where Harper and Machado land first

I bet national league. Philly, st Louis or Atlanta

I've felt like Atlanta is the destination for a while now.

I could see where the NL is a better fit for his game. Fewer sluggers and more small ball.

Sun Trust Park in Atlanta is favorable to left-handed pitchers

I don't think he manages pressure and media well. NY and Boston will eat him alive.

They know Keuchel is gone. The QO gets us the draft pick.

I think the Marwin decision boils down to one thing: luhnow thinks he's likely to take the QO because it's well above his market value. We don't want to have a 1 year $18 mil deal on the table if 3 year $30 million offers (just guessing on numbers for an example, not predicting) are what's rolling in. He could take the offer, play for a bounce back year and then cash in next summer. If we think he can come close to his 2017 numbers, we want to extend him off his 2018 year and get a discount, not give him a chance to post 2017 numbers again in 2019 and then have to pay him. I think if Luhnow thought Marwin was worth anywhere near $18 million a year and he would get that on the open market, he's give him the QO like he is to Keuchel. It would be a no-brainer to get the draft compensation.

Lastly, I kinda hope we extend the QO to Morton. I think it will back some of the competition off in negotiations because he's not a long term fix. He's only going to play a few more years. Will a team want to sacrifice a top draft pick for that? A few will, but a lot won't IMO.

Thanks for the explanation. IIRC, Colby Rasmus was the first to ever accept the QO and it was for us.

Since we've been good to Charlie Morton in his career, I wonder if we could work out a side deal with him where we make him a QO, he declines it so we get the pick, then we sign him for less.

Yeah, MLB would frown at that to the tune of lost draft picks for the next few years.

I think Charlie is an ideal candidate for a QO.

The $17.9 is probably a bit more than his market value so it's a favor for him and it's one year so he can continue to leave retirement as an option at the end of the year.

If he leave we get the compensation so we're not left high and dry. I think it's a win-win in Charlie's case.

AgFan1999 said:

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Yeah, MLB would frown at that to the tune of lost draft picks for the next few years.

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Is it really that different than the Yankees trading Chapman to the Cubs for some top notch prospects then turning around and signing him as a FA.

I think that's BS and MLB needs a rule that if a player is traded mid-season his next contract can't be with the team that traded him.

Several of you have said that the QO is above Marwin's market value. I'm not necessarily contradicting, just passing on what I have read and heard.

Fangraphs has Marwin's market value at 4 years, $17.9M per

Marwin Calculated Market Value

That is based on "comparable" recent FAs and their contracts.

• Alex Gordon; four-years, $72 million
• Justin Upton; five-years, $106 million
• Dexter Fowler; five-years, $82.5 million
• Lorenzo Cain; five-years, $80 million

I didn't dig deep into their methodology. Age and recent production were the main factors but IDK how much Marwin's defensive versatility is being taken into account.

They have Dallas at 5 years, $103M ($20.6M per). Morton's is not listed - probably not too many comps.

They also have Gattis at 2 years, $15.5M (7.7) & Maldonado @ 1 year, $3.9M.