Great point about luxury tax land.

I always assumed we would never keep:

Altuve
Bregman
Correa
Springer

Because I am of the mindset that you don't go to luxury tax land, which is indicative of me being a life long Astros fan, luxury tax land just doesn't exist in our way of thinking. If Crane decides he wants long term, high level success then I believe we have the market to sustain that and go there. If he isn't willing to do that, then we have a 3 year window IMO.

FYI:
Luxury Tax thresholds:
2019 - $206MM
2020 - $208MM
2021 - $210MM
Luxury Tax penalties:
Year 1 - 20%
Year 2 - 30%
Year 3+ - 50%

Altuve hits us for $31MM annually through 2024 and Bregman, Correa, Springer would command $75MM annually IMO = $106MM for all 4 starting in 2022 range. Add 5 solid pitchers at $80MM (3 starters and 2 great bullpen guys) and there is only about $30MM for the rest of the team. That puts us with a bunch of role players or in luxury tax land.

dude that was like a whole quarter

Yep. We'll be pretty constrained financially in the coming years. So I think we'll be erroring on the side of short term free agent contracts and replacing departing free agents from within our prospect pool. In the short term, it will create some variability because you don't know which supporting cast players will pan out and which won't. And that will (rightfully) be frustrating to fans who see a great opportunity to win now and a front office that won't go all in. But over the long term, it's probably the best approach in terms of keeping our core in tact and giving ourselves plenty of chances to enter the playoff lottery.

WelchAg said:

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Now that we have a WS win, I don't want to go all in. Anything can happen in the playoffs and it is hard as hell to win a WS. I would choose sustained success over putting all our chips in for 2 years. Just my opinion.

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I'm with you

agsquirrel97 said:

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Pitching - after figuring out Cole was just one tweak away from being a dominant pitcher, I trust Luhnow and team will not overspend our future on an aging ace. We pick up one starter IMO opinion and use our farm and pen to fill the rest of the gap. I don't expect the starter to be a #1 or #2 guy, I expect we will find a #5 guy really cheap (or FA) who is tweaked into a solid #3 guy with Astros' help. This is our team's advantage as we are still ahead of the curve and can get better value than most here.

Catching - we won't spend much, we will get a guy that can frame a pitch and catcher spot will still be a black hole. I am not saying I agree with this, I just don't expect the Astros will spend for all star talent here.

DH - this is where we will spend in my opinion. If we are going to compete in AL, I expect our leadership to add a bat and it will cost us. Maybe it comes in the form of a top notch 1st baseman with Yuli going to DH but I believe a bat is Luhnow's priority.

SS and 3rd - my most intriguing question for offseason is will we swap Correa and Bregman to try and ease the load on Correa's big body by getting him out of the middle of the infield?

(My projected everyday lineup)
Springer
Bregman
Altuve
Thor's Hammer (off season signing)
healthy Correa (.280 with OPS .850)
Yuli
Reddick
Catcher
Kemp

Bench
Jake
Tucker
Stassi
Infielder reserve


IMO we have until 2021 until we can't afford the core of our team and we will strike while the iron is hot.

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Maybe I'm having a brain fart. But who is Thor's hammer?

LOL he is saying insert which ever big bat we sign in that place

All this Astros talk, I love it. But, damn, I miss watching them almost every night. Baseball's offseason isn't even here yet, and I'm ready for our guys to take the field again.

Spring Training can't get here soon enough!

Frok said:

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rak1693 said:

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I think Tucker will be fine next season. Give him some time in spring training and he'll be another year older. He's only 21 at the moment. He won't make the starting rotation but I think he'll make the Opening Day roster. And if Marwin is leaving, you'll probably need him.

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I hope we're not counting on Tucker. I saw nothing that made it look like he would be a contributing player any time soon.

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I wouldn't bank on him either but we'll need another OF. Someone else may step up in spring training but I don't know who that may be. All assuming Marwin leaves which is no guarantee. I hope Tucker pans out at least

50% off merchandise at Dillard's and BOGO at Dicks.

20% off at Academy.

Al just FYI.

I can get down with that.

However, I liked how we experimented with moving George out of the leadoff. I think Altuve (based on 18 play, not 17) would be more suited to lead off than George.

Farmer1906 said:

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Frok said:

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rak1693 said:

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I think Tucker will be fine next season. Give him some time in spring training and he'll be another year older. He's only 21 at the moment. He won't make the starting rotation but I think he'll make the Opening Day roster. And if Marwin is leaving, you'll probably need him.

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I hope we're not counting on Tucker. I saw nothing that made it look like he would be a contributing player any time soon.

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How long in Triple A does he need to mash before you deem him worthy of another shot?

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Agree

He gets every opportunity to be the every day LFer unless spring training is a catastrophe

Many of y'all may have already read this on Tucker but I'll post it anyway just in case:

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2018/10/23/18011086/kyle-tucker-trade-bait-or-astros-next-superstar

His expected outcome stats were actually pretty promising from his brief time in the bigs. It's worth adding that in Bregman's first 42 PA, he was batting .053 and through Biggio's first 130 PA, he was batting .211. I'm not saying he'll be as successful as those two, but he needs more consistent playing time before we declare anything about him.

Seems like they shift on him every at bat. Don't know much about the metrics but do any of those numbers take that into account? Like he had a high hard hit percentage but does it matter if he hits into the **** every time?

I'll have to look up my post from the season thread, but look at Tucker against starters vs. relievers, and against pitch type. It was BAD. I hope he gets it together, but this season, those stats mean a lot more than hard contact percentage

how aggressive (or non-aggressive) the front office goes after Marwin...may provide insight as to what they think Tucker will do next year

My argument is not to keep him in AAA. My argument is to not assume Tucker will be an every day starter thus forgoing any free agent signings. I'm not convinced he is anything special yet. He came with a lot of hype. Hopefully he lives up to some of it.

I think you target 1B/DH and C for the free agent signings. That leaves room in the OF for Tucker if he pans out. I don't mind having Kemp as a back up option.

You guys who study this stuff - how about JD Davis? Think he'll be able to contribute next year? It didn't really seem like Tucker was overpowered in most of his ABs, but Davis was. I never really had any hope that he would get a hit, but he's also very young.

??

He's not that young. Davis is 25. Usually(not always) if you're going to be a big leaguer you've shown it by now. The guy that old that do become big leaguers usually haven't gotten the chance. (See Kemp)

yep, Davis is a slightly better version of A.J. Reed.

they both have big lumbering swings...with numerous holes

And yet Davis was the PCL player of the year and put up big numbers. The numbers don't really say he has a lumbering bat with a massive hole in his swing. I think he's just overwhelmed at the ML level. As was White until he got significant PT in mid season. It's really hard to show you are good 15 ABs at a time.

JD Davis may not be a MLB hitter. Or he may be for us or someone else. I'm not sure he's got a big enough and long enough sample size to know for sure. I know Tucker doesn't. 70 odd ABs in 2 sets isn't enough. He really needs a stretch of 150-200 ABs all in a row to even start to form an opinion. .

I'm surprised JD Davis is still on this team. I thought for sure he'd have been traded by now.

With Bregman at 3B Davis just doesn't have anywhere to go. He's not good enough to break through with us but I think he's shown enough potential in MiLB to be of value to someone else.

Think Colin Moran.

Tucker we actually have a spot for and just need him to develop. Davis is just flat out blocked.

Not quite. He's blocked in the field. Not as DH.

But I agree. I think his best bet is to be traded. Unfortunately his really bad showing so far at the ML level will drive his value down.

Speaking of Colin

.277 .340 .407 .747

Those aren't terrible numbers. Not great, but above average.

Not bad at all.

I think that was a great win-win trade

Ag_07 said:

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I'm surprised JD Davis is still on this team. I thought for sure he'd have been traded by now.

With Bregman at 3B Davis just doesn't have anywhere to go. He's not good enough to break through with us but I think he's shown enough potential in MiLB to be of value to someone else.

Think Colin Moran.

Tucker we actually have a spot for and just need him to develop. Davis is just flat out blocked.

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after his first crappy MLB stint you would be selling low. I think he is a perfect trade candidate but we probably wanted him to do well in the bigs before we sold

Very few guys rake at the AAA level the way Davis has and fail to pan out as at least serviceable players at the major league level. I think it's mental for him. There's too much ability there to be as bad as he's been. As such, I think he still had plenty of trade value.

When talking about Tucker, think about Bregman's start. He stunk it up and people were writing him off. MLB is hard. It's A LOT different than AAA. Sometimes it just takes a while to click. I'm not saying Tucker will definitely get things figured out and he'll be a superstar, but let's give it some time before we pass judgement

I'd like to find a leadoff hitter and move Springer into more of a run producing spot in the lineup. Springer is now 29 and I'd love to have a more traditional on-base type leadoff hitter that steals bases and occupies the pitcher's mind in front of Altuve, Bregman, Springer, and Correa. I think it could make the overall lineup better and Springer is not much of a threat to steal a base:

Springer (SB-SBA):

2016: 9-19
2017: 5-12
2018: 6-10