Great point about luxury tax land.
I always assumed we would never keep:
Altuve
Bregman
Correa
Springer
Because I am of the mindset that you don't go to luxury tax land, which is indicative of me being a life long Astros fan, luxury tax land just doesn't exist in our way of thinking. If Crane decides he wants long term, high level success then I believe we have the market to sustain that and go there. If he isn't willing to do that, then we have a 3 year window IMO.
FYI:
Luxury Tax thresholds:
2019 - $206MM
2020 - $208MM
2021 - $210MM
Luxury Tax penalties:
Year 1 - 20%
Year 2 - 30%
Year 3+ - 50%
Altuve hits us for $31MM annually through 2024 and Bregman, Correa, Springer would command $75MM annually IMO = $106MM for all 4 starting in 2022 range. Add 5 solid pitchers at $80MM (3 starters and 2 great bullpen guys) and there is only about $30MM for the rest of the team. That puts us with a bunch of role players or in luxury tax land.
I always assumed we would never keep:
Altuve
Bregman
Correa
Springer
Because I am of the mindset that you don't go to luxury tax land, which is indicative of me being a life long Astros fan, luxury tax land just doesn't exist in our way of thinking. If Crane decides he wants long term, high level success then I believe we have the market to sustain that and go there. If he isn't willing to do that, then we have a 3 year window IMO.
FYI:
Luxury Tax thresholds:
2019 - $206MM
2020 - $208MM
2021 - $210MM
Luxury Tax penalties:
Year 1 - 20%
Year 2 - 30%
Year 3+ - 50%
Altuve hits us for $31MM annually through 2024 and Bregman, Correa, Springer would command $75MM annually IMO = $106MM for all 4 starting in 2022 range. Add 5 solid pitchers at $80MM (3 starters and 2 great bullpen guys) and there is only about $30MM for the rest of the team. That puts us with a bunch of role players or in luxury tax land.