irish pete ag06 said:

---

Marwin will obviously turn it down and the Astros should receive some nice draft compensation for those 2.

Then again... it may be a bit risky offering Marwin a QO. He may accept it also.

---

Marwin is batting a smooth .225 right now. going to be very interesting how his offseason unwinds if that doesnt change.

I don't see Astros offering Marwin 17.5mm. They will offer Keuchel, but no way he take it. Morton might though. Its more than double anything he has ever made.

gigemJTH12 said:

---

irish pete ag06 said:

---

Marwin will obviously turn it down and the Astros should receive some nice draft compensation for those 2.

Then again... it may be a bit risky offering Marwin a QO. He may accept it also.

---

Marwin is batting a smooth .225 right now. going to be very interesting how his offseason unwinds if that doesnt change.

---

Yep. Same with Dallas.

If both those guys continue with their mediocre seasons maybe they decide to cash in on the QO while they're value is low while they use the one year to rebuild that value.

I think being Boras clients is a wildcard in both situations. Not sure how he approaches the QO scenario.

Deluxe said:

---

irish pete ag06 said:

---

Here's another off-day topic:

Playoffs start tomorrow (using today's standings) and we are the 2 seed with home field advantage against the Indians.

Who's your rotation after Verlander?

---

I've thought about this too. Verlander, Cole and Morton seem like the obvious 1-3. Not sure if Kuechel has any "legacy" rights over Morton to get the game 3 start, but there's no doubt who I'd trust more in that spot right now.

Also agree that Keuchel should get the game 4 start and LMJ to the pen. LMJ has proven he can work out of the pen. LMJ's stuff seems more conducive to a high-leverage bullpen role than Keuchel's too. LMJ can be straight up nasty, whereas Keuchel just sort of methodically beats the bottom of the zone and keeps hitters off balance with his deception and mix of pitches (when he's sharp anyway).

---

i think you nailed it

Ag_07 said:

---

gigemJTH12 said:

---

irish pete ag06 said:

---

Marwin will obviously turn it down and the Astros should receive some nice draft compensation for those 2.

Then again... it may be a bit risky offering Marwin a QO. He may accept it also.

---

Marwin is batting a smooth .225 right now. going to be very interesting how his offseason unwinds if that doesnt change.

---

Yep. Same with Dallas.

If both those guys continue with their mediocre seasons maybe they decide to cash in on the QO while they're value is low while they use the one year to rebuild that value.

I think being Boras clients is a wildcard in both situations. Not sure how he approaches the QO scenario.

---

I feel with near 100% certainty Boras would tell them to turn it down.

He'll feel like he can get them more than $18-19 million total.

Regarding McCann, keep in mind that we're only paying $11.5M of his current salary, so it's highly unlikely we'd pick up the $15M team option. Whether we part ways or seek a lesser one-year type of deal will be dependent on how the rest of his season goes.

Morton will be 35 next year with a history of injuries, so a big pay day isn't coming his way. He's made over $40M in his career, so a one-year qualifying offering in the $19M range would likely be all the payday he needs to hang it up after 2019.

On the catcher topic, I was thinking about the idea of Salvy Perez. He's a fan favorite in KC but the Royals are going no where anytime soon. His deal runs through 2021 at ~$12 million per year. Lots of postseason experience (2015 WS MVP).

Could trade for him at the deadline this year and maybe kill two birds with one stone (ie solve our 2018 DH issue, then he naturally slides into McCann's role in 2019).

If Marwin doesn't see some improvement through the remainder of the year, last year looks a more like an outlier for his career than something he could do consistently. What kind of contract do we think he'll be able to get on the open market? His versatility makes him really valuable, however he isn't a generational player or anything like that. I think he'll be an interesting FA to watch.

would be nice to see Seattle or the Angels take out the Bosox in a one game playoff.

yea, that's what i mean. as it stands right now, i would bet dollars to donuts that the Bosox wind up in in the WC and the 2nd comes from the West. have Ohtani go out there for one game and shut them down, and then we get to to play a Central team hovering around .500.

I think we'll offer Keuchel the qualifying offer, he'll turn it down, and we'll get draft pick compensation.

I don't think we'll offer Marwin because I don't think his current play warrants it. I think this is his last year in an Astros uniform. Too many cheaper options to fill the utility role next year if they aren't included in deals (Davis, Kemp, White).

by the way, has anyone talked about the mysterious illness Derek Fisher has? apparently, he has some gastrointestinal issue and has had trouble eating and has lost weight.

i hope its not something serious.

https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Derek-Fisher-suffering-from-digestive-12929639.php

iBrad said:

---

I think we'll offer Keuchel the qualifying offer, he'll turn it down, and we'll get draft pick compensation.

I don't think we'll offer Marwin because I don't think his current play warrants it. I think this is his last year in an Astros uniform. Too many cheaper options to fill the utility role next year if they aren't included in deals (Davis, Kemp, White).

---

Agreed. Assuming his standard offensive production is an average between his outstanding 2017 and blah 2018, Marwin will be worth more to some other team as an everyday middle infielder.

I somehow totally left Evan Gattis off my Free Agent list earlier.

Furlock Bones said:

---

by the way, has anyone talked about the mysterious illness Derek Fisher has? apparently, he has some gastrointestinal issue and has had trouble eating and has lost weight.

i hope its not something serious.

https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Derek-Fisher-suffering-from-digestive-12929639.php

---

I can't imagine trying to play a game as hard as professional baseball while dealing with a chronic sounding GI issue. That would zap you of your energy and make you feel awful.

gigemJTH12 said:

---

irish pete ag06 said:

---

Furlock Bones said:

---

would be nice to see Seattle or the Angels take out the Bosox in a one game playoff.

---

The Angels do it and ESPN still has Trout and Ohtahni to slobber over. If it's the Mariners that would be so glorious.

---

wouldnt that be a ***** to win over 100 games and have to face Paxton in a 1 game playoff?

---

This is a prime example of why winning the division is important and why I laugh at anyone who says that winning the division isn't the goal.

Because yes...That would suck big time.

gigemJTH12 said:

---

this convo has me looking at the league standings...

at the moment after NYY and Boston, the AL looks like this

Houston
Seattle
Angels
Oakland

---

It's also odd to me that we've already played 5 more games than the Yankees

who was saying that?

What do we think is a viable record over these next two stretches? What would you consider a victory?

(2) vs SF
(4) @ Cleveland
(3) @ NYY
(4) vs Boston

Thats a pretty tough 13 game stretch. I think if we're 7-6 thats a win. Then we get rewarded with:

(2) vs Seattle (although one will be vs Paxton)
(4) @ Texas
(3) @ Oakland
(3) @ KC
(3) vs Tampa
(3) vs KC
(3) vs Toronto
(4) @ Tampa
(2) @ Texas
(4) vs CWS
(4) vs Oakland
(3) vs Detroit

Thats 38 games where the best team we see is Seattle. Could really have a stranglehold on the Division by July 15

BMX Bandit said:

---

who was saying that?

---

i heard more than a few radio and tv personalities saying the Angels would be improved but outside of that the division would be terrible again.

The Milkman said:

---

What do we think is a viable record over these next two stretches? What would you consider a victory?

(2) vs SF
(4) @ Cleveland
(3) @ NYY
(4) vs Boston

Thats a pretty tough 13 game stretch. I think if we're 7-6 thats a win. Then we get rewarded with:

(2) vs Seattle (although one will be vs Paxton)
(4) @ Texas
(3) @ Oakland
(3) @ KC
(3) vs Tampa
(3) vs KC
(3) vs Toronto
(4) @ Tampa
(2) @ Texas
(4) vs CWS
(4) vs Oakland
(3) vs Detroit

Thats 38 games where the best team we see is Seattle. Could really have a stranglehold on the Division by July 15

---

Easily our toughest stretch of the year (excluding SF at home). I wouldn't even be all that upset with 6-7 given that we'd be playing 11 straight against division leaders/current playoff teams with 7 of those on the road.

That next 38-game stretch though is glorious

Am I crazy for thinking that stretch isn't that tough?

SF is right at .500 and after this weekend CLE is one game under.

Yeah CLE scares you a bit with that starting rotation but we just took 2/3 from them at home. Now we face them on the road were we're clearly a better offensive team.

The NYY and BOS series are gonna be tough but that's only 7 games out of that stretch that scare me.

Next year will definitely look a little different. I expect Morton back, and unless Keuchel just really wants to stay an Astro, I expect all others gone.

Verlander
Cole
MCCullers
Morton
Peacock / FA / Someone currently in minors

RP: Sipp gone, Riley Farrell in

Marwins utility role will go to Kemp if he's not traded. Fisher is likely the 4th outfielder with Ted Tucker starting in RF. Jd Davis will be our DH. Catcher depends on Garrett Stubbs development. Platoon of him and Stassi might be suitable. If not, I see a FA or trade there.

This all assumes not big FA acquisitions or trades.

C: Stassi / Stubbs
1B: Gurriel / Davis
2B: Altuve / Kemp
SS: Correa / Bregman
3B: Bregman / Davis / Kemp
LF: Reddick / Fisher / Kemp
CF: Springer / Fisher / Kemp
RF: Tucker / Springer / Reddick
DH: Davis / Gurriel / OF not starting

I think realistically we can win both vs SF, 2/4 in Cleveland, 1/3 in NY, and hopefully 2/4 vs Boston at home. Thats where I got to 7 and I think thats a really great result through that stretch.

Yeah 7 is safe but I'm thinking realistically 8

2-0 v SF
3-1 @ CLE
1-3 @ NYY
2-2 v BOS

Maybe the road offense does it's thing and we take one extra from NY to get to 9 wins and maybe the road offense shows up in MMP and you win the BOS series to get to 10.

So safe I'd be happy with...7
Realistically what I'm expecting...8
Top end optimistic everything goes our way ecstatic...9/10

I just don't think it's the gauntlet stretch that was originally thought it was going to be.