Beat40 said:
DallasAg 94 said:
There are several in which Odor is in range.
HR: 89 vs 89 (Odor vs Altuve)
3B: 23 v 25
SO: 485 v 503
HBP: 34 v 42
Despite a difference of almost 4 years.
Through age 23 season:
Odor: 546 GP, 88 HR, 39 SB, .247 BA, .287 OBP, .444 SLG, 23 Triples, 89 Doubles.
Altuve: 356 GP, 14 HR, 75 SB, .285 BA .323 OBP, .377 SLG, 7 Triples, 75 Doubles.
So I AM an Astros fan. At the end of the day, a good player is a good player, which I can respect no matter what team he plays for.
It's just interesting that you decide to use full career statistics when saying "despite a difference of almost 4 years." I get the point of it, but as someone else has said, the SOs are counter to your argument and I'm not really sure HBP should factor into who has a higher ceiling.
I can readily agree that Odor will probably have more HR than Altuve in his career.
But your through the age of 23 stats - Odor has a full year's more ABs than Altuve does during that time period, which has an impact on the counting statistics like doubles. If you took the same amount of ABs, Altuve would have more doubles and still have less HRs, triples, and SLG. He will still have a higher BA and OBP.
I think the better metric is on a per 162 game stat line for that time period.
Altuve had already made an All-Star team before turning 23.
You also didn't put total hits in your stats, which is 499 for Odor before 23 and 405 for Altuve before 23. One could argue that if Altuve had the same # of ABs as Odor before 23, he most likely would have had more hits than Odor.
After 23 Odor is trending downward while Altuve launched upward after his 23 year old season.
I think if Odor can figure things out, he will be a really good player with great pop and be a valuable asset. I will be interested to see how the next 5 years go for Odor.
I would agree with you that he's too young to give up on, and has show some really, really nice flashes, but I cannot agree with you that he has a higher ceiling than Altuve.
A reasonable Astros fan.
I toyed withe the idea of including Offensive ceiling, but in order to do what I wanted, I omitted that word. The troll is I believe overall, Altuve is a better 2B, when you consider O and D. Even his role and value to the team.
If you notice in almost all of my comments, then stem in offensive statistical accumulation. Odor is serviceable defensively. Much like Kinsler he has some incredible plays most 2B don't make, and yet, you will watch the ball go right through their legs. Altuve is much more consistant and a better performer.
From on offensive standpoint... yes, Altuve will likely have a significantly higher BA... OBP. SBs, if he ever gets back to stealing bases. A role/stat he really doesn't need to provide, when he has people hitting behind him.
Odor's SB get diminished when he has extra-base hits. A HR vs a single + 3 SB.
Because Odor has success at such an early age, most of what he has already done is additive to players who are just entering MLB. If prime age is 27-32, that is 6 +/- years where you would normally expect performance to be better than other years. As it is...Odor is currently T-65 ALL TIME in HRs for a 2B and he hasn't even entered prime years. That also doesn't take into account 2B that played other positions than 2B. Biggio, for example is 4th with 291 HRs, however only 226 of those HRs were as a 2B.
You make the point that Odor having more ABs by 23. That is kinda the point I'm making. We could argue whether Altuve could have or would have produced. But, Altuve was still in the minors. Either because he wasn't considered good enough, or the Astros screwed him out of service time. You can decide who is to blame. I don't really care.
The SO and HBP were tongue-in-cheek. I thought they'd be fun to include, because I think they were close, but not that relevant. Total Bases, plenty of relevant stats. I just thought it was funny, even though the SO are a huge negative. They are still close and I found that funny and worth including.
If Odor figures things out... then he is going to put up very gawdy offensive numbers, which was my main central point. Any reasonable person will concede that. If he plays just 10 more years at 2B, until 34, and he puts up 25 HRs/yr... he'll pass Jeff Kent for most HRs by a player at 2B - 377. 351 of those HRs were while playing 2B. If he puts up 80 R and 80 RBIs for 10 years, he'll likely be Top 50 and Top 20 respectively.
He may suck the rest of the way and be out of baseball before the end of 2018. But, there is reason to be optimistic.
And I don't take myself too seriously and enjoy a good baseball discussion even if there is player/team bias.