Yovani Gallardo signed to a minor league deal. What year is it again?

Lucky #007 said:

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Yovani Gallardo signed to a minor league deal. What year is it again?

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If it were 2012, we'd have the best team in all baseball!

Dallas Ag94,

I think you're math is right behind saying he scores 46.6% of the time he "gets on base" but that doesn't mean what I think you think it means.

That 46.6% of the time would include any time he scored after swinging away and hitting a home run, double, etc.

It doesn't mean if he can just get on first base, he'll score 46.6% of the time.

If you just take out home runs, for example, that drops to 30%.

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If we assume he bats with 1 runner on base, then he'll effectively score 14% of the time with a HR. Since 7% scores his one run. An added base runner would give you two runs doubling the scores.

If we assume he bats with the bases loaded (3 runners), and he hits a HR 7% of the time... wouldn't that equate to runs scoring 28% of the time. Far less than the 46.6% by just getting on base?!

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That's a weird and I think inappropriate way to compare the impact of home runs versus something else. And again, the 46.6% isn't the right comparison point.

Ya, convoluted math like that is why we have metrics like wRC+. Gallo posted a 123 last year, meaning he was 23% better than league average at creating runs.

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Sample sizes are important. 34 ABs aren't statistically significant. The guy has absolutely raked for his entire minor league career and projects to a well above average hitter at the major league level. This is most likely a case of a guy who feels like he's wasting his time in the minors so he's not entirely focused.

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Or, he's just had an unlucky start.

If he thinks he's wasting time trying to learn how to field and run bases that's, well, hopefully that's not the case.

Ag2012 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Calhoun can be called up on May 3 and not reacg a full year of service time this year.

Everything I've ever seen says his going to the minors wasn't about service time. So we'll see, but I think it'll depend more on whether he's making progress as an outfielder.

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Aside from not being able to field in the OF, it might be his: 8 GP, 34 AB, .206 BA, .229 OBP, 10 SO and 1 HR.

Dude fits right in with Odor and Gallo.

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Sample sizes are important. 34 ABs aren't statistically significant. The guy has absolutely raked for his entire minor league career and projects to a well above average hitter at the major league level. This is most likely a case of a guy who feels like he's wasting his time in the minors so he's not entirely focused.

He is not at all in the Gallo/Odor mold. He hits well to all fields, he's much more ground ball and line drive oriented than either of the other two and his K% in his current slump is better than any that Gallo has posted since High-A ball.

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Yeah I totally agree about Calhoun. He's put up number in the minor leagues that would indicate he's nothing like Odor and especially not like Gallo.

TXAggie2011 said:

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Ag2012 said:

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Ya, convoluted math like that is why we have metrics like wRC+. Gallo posted a 123 last year, meaning he was 23% better than league average at creating runs.

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I wouldn't say wRC+ isn't convoluted math

But I'm also not sure it answers whether or not he'd better off hitting/bunting against the shift or not.

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Nah, I'm just saying the convoluted math has already been done for us. As for how to hit against the shift I'm not sure that there is a truly objective way to look at it. You'd have to make a lot of assumptions about how effectively he could hit/bunt to the opposite field. My point is that in his first season as a MLB regular he was well above average. Why mess with success?

Also, FWIW Gallo is hitting more to the opposite field than to his pull side for the first time in his career (again, small sample sizes). He's at 25.6% pull, 34.9% center, 39.5% oppo on the year. He definitely seems to be trying to break the shift.

Ag2012 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Calhoun can be called up on May 3 and not reacg a full year of service time this year.

Everything I've ever seen says his going to the minors wasn't about service time. So we'll see, but I think it'll depend more on whether he's making progress as an outfielder.

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Aside from not being able to field in the OF, it might be his: 8 GP, 34 AB, .206 BA, .229 OBP, 10 SO and 1 HR.

Dude fits right in with Odor and Gallo.

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Sample sizes are important. 34 ABs aren't statistically significant. The guy has absolutely raked for his entire minor league career and projects to a well above average hitter at the major league level. This is most likely a case of a guy who feels like he's wasting his time in the minors so he's not entirely focused.

He is not at all in the Gallo/Odor mold. He hits well to all fields, he's much more ground ball and line drive oriented than either of the other two and his K% in his current slump is better than any that Gallo has posted since High-A ball.

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Yeah well... that was until the Rangers got ahold of him...

Actually, the comment comparing him to Odor and Gallo was mostly tongue-n-cheek. Mostly.

As long as Joey is sporting a sub 650 OPS there should be zero debate on whether trying for the "free" bunt single is worth more to the team.

Ag2012 said:

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Ya, convoluted math like that is why we have metrics like wRC+. Gallo posted a 123 last year, meaning he was 23% better than league average at creating runs.

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If the question is... how does Gallo compare to the league... then stats like wRC+ is helpful. If the question is... should Gallo swing for a HR when a shift is in, or should he just slap the ball... not sure how that helps me. If you have a stat that is useful... I'm interested.

Lucky #007 said:

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Yovani Gallardo signed to a minor league deal. What year is it again?

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Ugh... hopefully we just need some filler for Round Rock. This is getting ridiculous if he ends up in Arlington this season.

Please spare me Gallardo pitching for the Rangers. I don't want to have to watch a worse nibbler on the strike zone than Perez.

TXAggie2011 said:

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Dallas Ag94,

I think you're math is right behind saying he scores 46.6% of the time he "gets on base" but that doesn't mean what I think you think it means.

That 46.6% of the time would include any time he scored after swinging away and hitting a home run, double, etc.

It doesn't mean if he can just get on first base, he'll score 46.6% of the time.

If you just take out home runs, for example, that drops to 30%.

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If we assume he bats with 1 runner on base, then he'll effectively score 14% of the time with a HR. Since 7% scores his one run. An added base runner would give you two runs doubling the scores.

If we assume he bats with the bases loaded (3 runners), and he hits a HR 7% of the time... wouldn't that equate to runs scoring 28% of the time. Far less than the 46.6% by just getting on base?!

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That's a weird and I think inappropriate way to compare the impact of home runs versus something else. And again, the 46.6% isn't the right comparison point.

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Thanks.

You are correct, I meant to remove HRs from the 46.6%. That number should be 24.8% if I did the numbers correctly: ((H-HR+BB+HBP)/(PA-HR)).

The point would still stand that he would need to hit a HR with bases loaded, in order to produce the same number of Runs.

Where I think the numbers are more dramatic has to do with where he is hitting.

If he is hitting 5th or 6th and the guy behind him is less productive rather than if he were hitting 2nd or 3rd, with two to three productive guys behind him.

To me the question is around scoring the most runs. RBIs are fickle... I think they said 80% of the HRs by the Rangers this year have been solo shots?! And that will be the case... if nobody hits to get on base.

Situational baseball, IMO, is still the way to go.

2nd &\or 3rd less than two outs. Score the damn runs.

Ag2012 said:

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Also, FWIW Gallo is hitting more to the opposite field than to his pull side for the first time in his career (again, small sample sizes). He's at 25.6% pull, 34.9% center, 39.5% oppo on the year. He definitely seems to be trying to break the shift.

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I would agree with that. He does seem to be trying to go the other way more.

jtstanley4621 said:

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Please spare me Gallardo pitching for the Rangers. I don't want to have to watch a worse nibbler on the strike zone than Perez.

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We already have one nibbler...

Now in fairness, I think if they go 4.0 IP with Gallardo, we could find value. I think the Rangers had him pegged at 87-88 PC until the wheels started to come off. I think the reason they didn't resign him was not because they couldn't get effective starts out of him, but that he usually started to lose effectiveness before he qualified for the W.

In 2015:
4.36 (1st Inning - 33GS)
2.73 (2nd)
2.73 (3rd)
2.18 (4th - 33 GS)
4.97 (5th - 33 GS)
3.12 (6th - 24 GS)
7.71 (7th - 7 GS)

I'm guessing if you took the 5th inning of the 24 GS that he got to the 6th, his 5th was pretty good. The 9 GS that he didn't get to the 5th would have had disastrous 6ths.

I forget the precise reasoning, but I think they indicated his rpms started to drop dramatically by the 90th pitch and that was the trigger to pull him.

Not sure how 2016 & 2017 played out in terms of scouting\rpms\IP\PC, but you'd like to hope the Rangers have some insight.

Profar Showcase - 2 K's and 1 E

It's depressing just looking at the line up we are throwing out there tonight.

bigcat22 said:

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It's depressing just looking at the line up we are throwing out there tonight.

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Move Gallo to 3B, Calhoun to DH, Deshields back to CF and Robinson to LF and this may be a lineup we see a lot of in the second half.

Glad to see the new kids already understand Rangers baseball...... 2nd & 3rd, 1 out..... 2 straight strikeouts looking to end the inning

Robinson is a ****ing disaster. There was no play to be made. I have no idea why he's in the organizatin, much less playing CF.

Laughable

WTF was that

He's a disaster out there. In just a short amount of time, he's made numerous sloppy plays in an attempt to make a play that had no chance

The Lucroy trade will haunt this team for years

AAA lineup is brutal

Dang... Drew Robinson was 0 for 4, 4 k's. And an error.

And we struck out 17 times. Wow.

KT 90 said:

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Dang... Drew Robinson was 0 for 4, 4 k's. And an error.

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Not just any old error either. An error that literally lost the game.

This team is putrid. Might be 8,000 at games during the summer.

And if we want to talk about JD, Robinson is the epitome of why, while I don't think he should be fired, his seat should at least be getting a little warm. Robinson was a 4th round pick, has been in professional baseball for 7 years, and he's actually one of the "better" players they have to show from the draft for the past decade.

Currently on pace to lose... 118.8 games.

Bummer.

We won't lose more than 115. Book it.

gigem1223 said:

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The Lucroy trade will haunt this team for years

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And yet, it was met with thunderous applause from all of us.

Hindsight is 20/20.

toucan82 said:

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We won't lose more than 115. Book it.

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What you have on your side is that as other teams fall from contention, they'll likely trade assets, thus making some of the crappy game late in the season more competitive.

In fairness and objectivity towards Robinson, at 25, in his 60 GP for the Rangers he has played:

2B: 7
3B: 20
SS: 3
LF: 13
CF: 15
DH: 2
PH: 4

He has been a utility IF and a utility OF. He has played sparingly... and moving around from IF to OF... the ball plays differently off dirt and turf/grass. He was lazy on the play, but I think he was rushing to get the ball home in case there was a play.