I do agree with you to an extent and maybe its just rose colored glasses so to speak, but the decline seems to coincide with Ryan leaving the organization and Houston's rise seems to have his hand print.

I'm not sure what else we could have done in those years to compete other than give away the farm. I will say, we don't seem to get many "hometown" discounts or players wanting to re-sign after they've played out their contract. I kind of liken that to us in the workforce that don't stick around at jobs for more than three or four years, but I wonder if JD doesn't have something to do with it.

I question some of his decisions but I don't necessarily think he needs to be fired. Banny on the other hand...

The Astros just paid Jose Altuve a contract extension worth $30.2m/year -- didn't seem like Nolan really worked any kind of hometown discount for Houston either.

The Banny/Brocail combo I've had enough of. I defended Bannister a bit for his boneheaded decisions back in 2015 and 2016 because you could excuse them if his motivation got the players producing like they were.

But it's grown tiresome.

free_mhayden said:

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The Astros just paid Jose Altuve a contract extension worth $30.2m/year -- didn't seem like Nolan really worked any kind of hometown discount for Houston either.

The Banny/Brocail combo I've had enough of. I defended Bannister a bit for his boneheaded decisions back in 2015 and 2016 because you could excuse them if his motivation got the players producing like they were.

But it's grown tiresome.

---

I still don't understand why brocail is still on the staff

Ryan was associated with the Rangers from August 5, 2010 through October 31, 2013.

2010: 1st in AL West; Lost WS <- No meaningful moves between Aug and WS.
2011: 1st in AL West; Lost WS
2012: 2nd in AL; Lost ALWC
2013: 2nd in AL West
2014: 5th in AL West
2015: 1st in AL West; Lost ALDS
2016: 1st in AL West; Lost ALDS
2017: 4th in AL West

If Nolan built the Rangers... he didn't build it to last.

Here is something to note:
Hamilton:
2010: 133 GP - .359, 32 HR
2011: 121 GP - .298, 25 HR
2012: 148 GP - .285, 43 HR
2013: 151 GP - .250, 21 HR
2014: 89 GP - .263, 10 HR
2015: 50 GP - .253, 8 HR

Much of the Rangers success was around Josh Hamilton. Nolan had nothing to do with that. I believe Nolan was also against Cliff Lee.

Nolan joined the Astros in February 2014.
2009 - 88 Losses
2010 - 86 Losses
2011 - 106 Losses
2012 - 107 Losses
2013 - 111 Losses
2014 - 92 Losses

The tanking of the Astros strategy to bring great talent into the Org was well underway before Nolan joined the Astros.

I'd love to hear the Top 5 moves by Nolan that he is credited with.

I'm not on the "Nolan was great and we suck because he's gone" wagon. His philosophy developed pretty much zippo pitching for organization. The key pieces to this team in successful years were acquired, by shrewd trade or FA - seemingly mostly JD's work. Dumping Tex for quality talent, Hamilton, Beltre, Lee, Yu.

However, I do see a few major issues with JD that helped lead us to this point, and I do think you have to strongly consider moving on:
1) the lack of draft pick comp for rentals has really hampered one of the weapons he used to build this team in the late aughts. The trade deadline in the "sell" years isn't what it used to be. Not that this team has been a frequent seller, but when one key area he previously showed adeptness in has been somewhat neutralized, you have to take a closer look at what else he's doing to build the team which leads to #2.
2) they have been absolutely sucking at drafting, especially in the top rounds. They've GOT to get more out of the draft
3) he's fallen in love with the motivational manager vs the tactically sharp teacher. Wash got pants'd in national league parks in the WS. And Banny is just the wrong guy for what this team is.

It's going to be funny to see how the sales are this summer for the "first chance to secure your seat in the new stadium" push. The product so far has been brutal to watch.

Fuzzy Dunlop said:

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Blindside05 said:

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etxag18 said:

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Fire JD

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My dad has been saying this since Nolan left..... he was of the belief that it was him who turned this franchise around. I don't necessarily agree with him but I am starting to get on the fire JD bandwagon

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I've been saying for while that Nolan was the only reason the Rangers did as well as they did for those years. Look what he has done at Houston. It is my understanding he is not easy to work with but I think the wins were worth it. I'm about done with this team just two weeks into the season. I'll continue to watch, I've watched for almost 40 years, but I have very little hope for the coming years.

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Nolan hasn't done jack **** in Houston. He's a figurehead.

free_mhayden said:

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If you spend money you don't need multi-year rebuilds.

Nobody is saying this team will be ready for prime-time next year because the young guys all took huge steps forward.

People are saying this team will be ready for prime-time next year because they have a new stadium they need to sell seats for and will have roughly $100 million to spend in free agency if they so choose.

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I just don't see it.

I had drafted a full analysis and then got too discouraged and dumped it.

COTs has us at $72M committed next year, and that assumes a $6M buyout of Hamels and no Perez. It does not include Serfs and Arbs, AFAIK. I think that generally runs to about $20M give or take. Mazara is an Arb... Gallo a Serf.

It assumes Andrus stays at $15M.

So at a net of about $14M you get to keep Hamels. Perez is a net of about $6.75M

The Luxury Tax threshold this past year was $197M.

So, you are likely correct... they will have upto about $100M to spend, if they are willing to bump up to the Luxury Tax and keep the 3 players above as is.

Numbers for Harper float around $35-40+M.
Kershaw is already at $35M if he remains a Dodger.

The other side of the Ohtani coin is... Andrus wants more money, we trade Hamels and Beltre can't remember how to throw to 1st Base. He has missed on like half a dozen throws.

Best case (as we've hashed many times):
Field
Gallo to 3rd
Profar @ SS
Odor @ 2B
Guzman @ 1B
Chirinos @ C
Calhoun to LF
DD @ CF
Mazara @ RF
Choo @ DH
4th OF: Rua, Robinson
-----------
Rotation
Minor
Perez - Club option
Moore - Club option
Fister - Club option
YoMen
-----------
Relievers
Bush
Leclerc
Barnette
Kela


So... what you are saying is ... we have $80M to get 4-5 key guys, including Andrus.

IF they got Harper and Kershaw at $75M and add more $10M to keep Andrus ($25M) is that enough to be ready for prime-time? I don't think so. It certainly doesn't set you up for 2020.

JD has excelled at trading for guys with 1+ additional years on their contract. That is very expensive, in terms of prospects.

You yourself have been very critical on Texas' ability to sign FAs without money-whipping them.

I hope Andrus and Beltre can perform well and JD trades them early on for a good return. If we can get a few prospects, remove payroll, and set ourselves up to promote within for the remainder of the year, then that should be viewed as a positive step.

We can then shop in the winter for Kershaw and whoever else might fill out our roster.

Edit: I am also realistic that our roster may not be attractive to other free agents. Since Dallas is home for Kershaw, we have that going for us.

I think you are confusing fielding a playoff contender team with fielding a WS team.

Yes free agent moves dont immediately make us a title favorite, but they can absolutely make us a contender.

DallasAg 94 said:

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free_mhayden said:

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If you spend money you don't need multi-year rebuilds.

Nobody is saying this team will be ready for prime-time next year because the young guys all took huge steps forward.

People are saying this team will be ready for prime-time next year because they have a new stadium they need to sell seats for and will have roughly $100 million to spend in free agency if they so choose.

---

I just don't see it.

I had drafted a full analysis and then got too discouraged and dumped it.

COTs has us at $72M committed next year, and that assumes a $6M buyout of Hamels and no Perez. It does not include Serfs and Arbs, AFAIK. I think that generally runs to about $20M give or take. Mazara is an Arb... Gallo a Serf.

It assumes Andrus stays at $15M.

So at a net of about $14M you get to keep Hamels. Perez is a net of about $6.75M

The Luxury Tax threshold this past year was $197M.

So, you are likely correct... they will have upto about $100M to spend, if they are willing to bump up to the Luxury Tax and keep the 3 players above as is.

Numbers for Harper float around $35-40+M.
Kershaw is already at $35M if he remains a Dodger.

The other side of the Ohtani coin is... Andrus wants more money, we trade Hamels and Beltre can't remember how to throw to 1st Base. He has missed on like half a dozen throws.

Best case (as we've hashed many times):
Field
Gallo to 3rd
Profar @ SS
Odor @ 2B
Guzman @ 1B
Chirinos @ C
Calhoun to LF
DD @ CF
Mazara @ RF
Choo @ DH
4th OF: Rua, Robinson
-----------
Rotation
Minor
Perez - Club option
Moore - Club option
Fister - Club option
YoMen
-----------
Relievers
Bush
Leclerc
Barnette
Kela


So... what you are saying is ... we have $80M to get 4-5 key guys, including Andrus.

IF they got Harper and Kershaw at $75M and add more $10M to keep Andrus ($25M) is that enough to be ready for prime-time? I don't think so. It certainly doesn't set you up for 2020.

JD has excelled at trading for guys with 1+ additional years on their contract. That is very expensive, in terms of prospects.

You yourself have been very critical on Texas' ability to sign FAs without money-whipping them.

---

What about this:

Kershaw - 35M
Keuchel - 25M
Grandal - 10M
Andrus - +10M

Doesn't address the outfield, but that immediately makes Texas an 85+ win team in 2019.

I'm not going to hold the trades he made against JD. In general, I'm not going to fault any organization for pulling the trigger on moves that they think are the missin/final pieces for a WS run. The Hamels and Lucroy trades were at the time pretty much universally thought of as good trades/moves. They didn't work out and we're paying the consequences of losing the talent we gave up to get those guys now. It sucks, but that's what happens when these things blow up. I'm not going to support the team any less.

It's been a while since I read it, but supposedly there are only a handful of teams that might be willing to "bid" on Elvis. A lot of teams are already set at SS moving forward (at least the ones willing to pay). So I think we have a good shot at keeping him. Plus, if Beltre retires after this season, he'd probably takeover the figurehead spot for the organization I would assume.

Ag2012 said:

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aggietony2010 said:

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AggieDPT said:

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Fister to the DL to make room for Barnette. This just means we get more Colon though.

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Not many posts with "fister" and "colon" are safe for work.

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Just wait til 'Cum makes his way into the rotation too.

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TXAggie2011 said:

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GMs don't get paid the big bucks because they can trade 6 MLB players/prospects for a pitcher on a terrible team with a huge contract. Anyone can do that. That's not hard. They get paid the big bucks because they get trades right and they figure out how to fix things when the trades don't work out so well.

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Well I guess my point is that for at least the Hamels and Lucroy trade, I didn't really see anyone at all saying that they were bad trades or the Rangers shouldn't have done them.

But yeah I think it's a fair point to say that a GM should be able to navigate bad trades, but we sorta shot all our bullets trying to get that last piece for a WS run, which I don't really fault JD for doing.

jtstanley4621 said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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GMs don't get paid the big bucks because they can trade 6 MLB players/prospects for a pitcher on a terrible team with a huge contract. Anyone can do that. That's not hard. They get paid the big bucks because they get trades right and they figure out how to fix things when the trades don't work out so well.

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Well I guess my point is that for at least the Hamels and Lucroy trade, I didn't really see anyone at all saying that they were bad trades or the Rangers shouldn't have done them.

But yeah I think it's a fair point to say that a GM should be able to navigate bad trades, but we sorta shot all our bullets trying to get that last piece for a WS run, which I don't really fault JD for doing.

---

I agree. Nobody had an issue with JD for those trades at the time, and he would've gotten run out of town if he hadn't done something to upgrade the team to give them a better shot. Lucroy got hot and hit some HR's down the stretch after he was acquired. It was the next season that he started to fall apart.

No, GM's don't get judged on their ability to trade prospects for high-salary arms down the stretch.

Jon Daniels has been here since 2006. In 4 years without tanking he took a 70-ish win team to a 90-ish win team over the last 7-8 years along 4 division titles and 2 WS appearances.

That's what he gets judged on and why it's silly to think that his overall job here has not been good or that he is even remotely on the hot seat.

I doubt there have been many teams outside the Top 5 team payrolls the last 7-8 years that have had more overall success than the Rangers.

Folks will be excited when you make big trades they think might get them to the Holyland that year, but needless to say trading for a $100 million pitcher and even a guy with an additional year brings on risk that as a GM you have to be able to recognize and handle.

I'm not really trying to blame him for making big trades, I'm just saying that's the easy part and it's the rest of it that is really how you should judge whether you've got the GM you want or not.

Not arguing or trying to contradict anything said, just a comment.

free_mhayden said:

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I think you are confusing fielding a playoff contender team with fielding a WS team.

Yes free agent moves dont immediately make us a title favorite, but they can absolutely make us a contender.

---

You didn't offer any solutions, just conjecture.

We likely lose Hamels, Andrus and Beltre for 2019. We first have to replace them, just to be even with this crappy team. We will be competing with LAD, NYY & Wash for Kershaw , Harper and even Keuchel. And Houston will be in the "we need to add a SP" if Keuchel goes anywhere.

Yes... there is a bunch of high-end FAs that are going to be available, but there are also teams those players are currently playing for, which will either chase that talent, or the talent behind them.

If Kershaw leaves LAD... then LAD has $35M looking for a replacement.
If Harper makes it to FA... Wash has money to chase.
Houston?!

Our first need, before being a playoff contender is to replace our own potential losses. Gallo at 3B may replace the offensive production from a HR/Runs/RBI perspective, but defensively he is a downgrade. Team leadership diminishes. And now, you have to "replace" Gallo and the role he has on the current team.

_lefraud_ said:

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What about this:

Kershaw - 35M
Keuchel - 25M
Grandal - 10M
Andrus - +10M

Doesn't address the outfield, but that immediately makes Texas an 85+ win team in 2019.

---

So Kershaw (30)...walks away from his remaining 2yr @$35M per, in order to sign the same amount with Texas?! I'm not sure that he wants to play for the Rangers that bad, but he might. He'll likely be seeking a 5-6 yr deal. Probably $40M per?

+$10M sounds about like what Andrus/Boras would position.

I don't know about Grandal.
Keuchel is 30.

I think your plan is certainly in the right direction. Will Kershaw & Keuchel both require 6 year deals?!

Kershaw, Keuchel, Minor, Perez, YoMen.

KT 90 said:

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It's been a while since I read it, but supposedly there are only a handful of teams that might be willing to "bid" on Elvis. A lot of teams are already set at SS moving forward (at least the ones willing to pay). So I think we have a good shot at keeping him. Plus, if Beltre retires after this season, he'd probably takeover the figurehead spot for the organization I would assume.

---

I'll have to see if I can find that information. Boras only needs 1 additional team.

You aren't seriously thinking that we will be a player in the Kershaw sweepstakes are you? Even if he is from Dallas, he is going to want to go to a legitimate WS contender. We might get used to help bid up his contract, but I just don't see him coming to someone on a rebuild.

Keuchel? He seems to have regressed somewhat the past couple of seasons. I'd be leery of throwing big money at him if he requires a 5+ year commitment, which I am sure he is looking for.

I think we'll go after some of the mid-level free agents. We aren't getting Harper either. Same as Kershaw, he is going to want to go to somebody that is a contender, although he is younger and might be more willing to latch on to a rebuild project as long as he is getting paid crazy money.... which he is, just a matter of who is going to pay it.

Machado is a free agent too? I can see us making a run at him. The Rangers have always had a pretty good latin influence on the team, could take over for Beltre at 3B and play alongside Elvis as SS.

DallasAg 94 said:

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KT 90 said:

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It's been a while since I read it, but supposedly there are only a handful of teams that might be willing to "bid" on Elvis. A lot of teams are already set at SS moving forward (at least the ones willing to pay). So I think we have a good shot at keeping him. Plus, if Beltre retires after this season, he'd probably takeover the figurehead spot for the organization I would assume.

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I'll have to see if I can find that information. Boras only needs 1 additional team.

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Main point they were trying to get across was that most of the big market teams were fairly set at SS. I know Boras will work his magic as best he can though (that's what he is there for).

KT 90 said:

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Machado is a free agent too? I can see us making a run at him. The Rangers have always had a pretty good latin influence on the team, could take over for Beltre at 3B and play alongside Elvis as SS.

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He'll be a Yankee next year

Blindside05 said:

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With that being said, I don't think he should be fired for what he has/hasn't accomplished in his time here however I do think he should be on the hot seat for the direction the franchise is going. Our prospect evaluations and drafting have been terrible and now we are suffering from it

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You can't really judge drafting, prospect evaluation and prospect development outside the context of players lost.

Take
Kyle Hendricks (28-RHP-Cubs).
Drafted 2011-8th Rd by the Rangers.

2015 (25): 32 GS, 3.95 ERA, 1.161 WHIP
2016 (26): 30 GS, 2.13 ERA, 0.979 WHIP
2017 (27): 24 GS, 3.03 ERA, 1.189 WHIP

From 2014-2018 he has a 2.97 ERA, 1.106 WHIP in 201 GS.

Jerad Eickoff (Philly)
2011-15Rd
2015 (24): 8GS, 2.65 ERA, 1.039 WHIP
2016 (25): 33 GS, 3.65 ERA, 1.160 WHIP
2017 (26): 24 GS, 4.71 ERA, 1.523

Nick Williams (Philly)
2012-2d Rd
2017 (23): 83 G, .288 BA, .338 OBP, 12 HR

Having Kyle Hendricks in the rotation would be a huge add. Nick Williams would likely be an upgrade in CF. Eickoff is on the DL, but even with what he has shown, it would be an improvement to Moore.

KT 90 said:

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You aren't seriously thinking that we will be a player in the Kershaw sweepstakes are you? Even if he is from Dallas, he is going to want to go to a legitimate WS contender. We might get used to help bid up his contract, but I just don't see him coming to someone on a rebuild.

Keuchel? He seems to have regressed somewhat the past couple of seasons. I'd be leery of throwing big money at him if he requires a 5+ year commitment, which I am sure he is looking for.

I think we'll go after some of the mid-level free agents. We aren't getting Harper either. Same as Kershaw, he is going to want to go to somebody that is a contender, although he is younger and might be more willing to latch on to a rebuild project as long as he is getting paid crazy money.... which he is, just a matter of who is going to pay it.

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I was just coming up with "realistic" names and prices. Go look at the list. Are the Rangers going to throw 15M at a 35 year old Marco Estrada? Or a 35 year old JA Happ? What about Lance Lynn or Drew Pomerantz, who the Rangers have passed on already?

My point is paying "mid level" Guys that are on the wrong side of 30 isn't more "realistic" than signing Kershaw. I'd rather have Kershaw tell me "no" at 35M+ than to give one of the guys above $15M...

KT 90 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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KT 90 said:

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It's been a while since I read it, but supposedly there are only a handful of teams that might be willing to "bid" on Elvis. A lot of teams are already set at SS moving forward (at least the ones willing to pay). So I think we have a good shot at keeping him. Plus, if Beltre retires after this season, he'd probably takeover the figurehead spot for the organization I would assume.

---

I'll have to see if I can find that information. Boras only needs 1 additional team.

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Main point they were trying to get across was that most of the big market teams were fairly set at SS. I know Boras will work his magic as best he can though (that's what he is there for).

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I see Andrus being treated like Darvish.

After the ASB, JD will make an offer with the understanding at some point this is the "best and final." And it will be explained that if he wants to test FA, it will be from another team. He'll either be the greatest Rangers player and inducted as a Ranger in the HoF, or will be traded for pieces.

Profar will likely be the replacement option.

I will never be upset at a GM who tries to make his team better at the trade deadline. As an example, the Stars were third in the western conference ,and had a big trade on the table for a a premier scorer, and did not pull the trigger. They preceded to be able to not score on the long road trip that ruined the season. I'm pissed at the GM ( Nill) for wasting a season. All that being said, I don't blame JD one bit for going for it by trading prospects for high profile veterans and never will.

I found 12 more A&M hats from last season