He won us a couple games. Any game where he went to get Keuchel and Keuchel told him to sit his ass back on the bench can be attributed to Hinch. He would have absolutely pulled him for Qualls those times had his player not had bigger balls than him.

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He won us a couple games. Any game where he went to get Keuchel and Keuchel told him to sit his ass back on the bench can be attributed to Hinch. He would have absolutely pulled him for Qualls those times had his player not had bigger balls than him.

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This happens all the time, though. There's no way to guarantee that Hinch was walking to the mound with the intention of pulling the pitcher every single time. Sometimes you gotta trust your pitcher and leave him in when he says he feels good, and sometimes you gotta yank him even if the pitcher wants to continue. And judging by the players views on Hinch, it sounds like he does a pretty good job of this.

I'm certainly not the biggest fan of the guy, as I think he could have done a better job at times. But some of the things that you are bashing him for seem a bit unfair IMO. It was his first year with this club, and only his second full year of managing, so he has room to grow, and I think he will

@awexler: Luhnow said the bullpen was a strength, with a backslide late in the season. They recognize the importance of a strong bullpen in postseason

So my first thought is no way a manager is worth the equivalent of +10 WAR. Turns out you can figure a WAR measure for a manager and someone did it back in 2012 for managers up to that point. Based on their work, you can use both a comparison of the EX Pythag record vs real record and a sum of players WAR record versus real record and any difference is then attributed to the manager.

Our pythag record was pretty salty at 94-68 and we finished at 86-76. That would suggest Hinch is around a -8 WAR. The players cummulative WAR was harder to figure because I couldn't find everones but the top 10 WARS end up as +35. Off of a base or 52-110 (where WAR is set) that puts the record of those 10 guys at 87-75. Problem was I couldn't find everybody's WAR and some would end up adding to it and some could take away. My guess is the team WAR ends up being close to a record of 88 or 90 wins and it puts Hinch at somewhere between -2 WAR and -4 WAR.

So yeah, he was below average.

I would like to see the Astros make a run at Alex Gordon. 350 OB% and some of the best defense in the league. Alex in left, Gomez in center and Springer in right would save a LOT of runs and Gordon could plug into third base as needed as well. He was a pretty good defensive third baseman, although he is a great defensive left fielder. Offer him Sandoval's deal and see how much higher you have to go. I would go 6/100 on him all day long.

I would turn first over to Reed. Dude is ready even if he struggles a bit.

Third is a problem with no real options.

Castro is just so good defensively that he makes up for the horrible bat.

Gattis is fine as a DH so long as he bats 6th or 7th and not 4th.

So then you could run out...

Altuve
Gordon
Correa
Springer
Gomez
Gattis
Reed
Valbuena
Castro

That is a stout lineup offensively and defensively. Have Lowrie, Marwin, Stassi, Tucker and/or Rasmus (depends on price) on the bench and that is a strong bench. Gotta get rid of the Korean. He hits a little but he is simply not a MLB catcher defensively and he clogs the base paths so bad.

Pitching you have 3 bad a$$e$ in Keuchel, McCullers, and McHugh. Mccullers got robbed of so many wins by the bullpen and offense. Neither helped him any last year. Fiers is fine as a 4th or 5th guy and I would bring up Appel to battle VVelasquez for the final spot. I know Appel hasn't done it enough, but he is mature enough and he just needs to see if he can do it or not. Bullpen is a disaster of course, need someone who can get over 90 mph on the freaking gun. How I wish the Reds would have given us Chapman, although then we wouldn't have Fiers and Gomez. We have to get a decent lefty.

As for the other free agents and options out there, I just don't think you want to invest that much into Heyward or Chris Davis. Both are going to bring HUGE money. Davis is a basepath killer. Love Heyward on this team, but he is going to get 180 million.

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So my first thought is no way a manager is worth the equivalent of +10 WAR. Turns out you can figure a WAR measure for a manager and someone did it back in 2012 for managers up to that point. Based on their work, you can use both a comparison of the EX Pythag record vs real record and a sum of players WAR record versus real record and any difference is then attributed to the manager.

Our pythag record was pretty salty at 94-68 and we finished at 86-76. That would suggest Hinch is around a -8 WAR.

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Part of the difference (and probably the majority) is luck and not necessarily the manager unless you just want to pin luck as the purview of the manager. The A's for example had a terrible record in one run games and a ton of blowout wins leading to a big Pythag difference, was it really a managerial issue or was it some combo of clutchness vs luck and not necessarily the manager?

Basically this method says that Bob Melvin got better after the A's traded away all their good players because their pythag record came down when they stopped trying.

Yeah there is obviously more too it. I looked at 1 run games all season. The reason the Rangers won and the reason the Angels came so close in my opinion was their records in 1 run games and ours. That metric is normally about 50%-50% for W/L and variance there is one measure of luck (or bullpen ability) we ran about even until the last 6 weeks and then tanked. The Angels were waaaay over (like 16 games over .500).

In the end I think Hinch had a - WAR Probably not 8-10 but maybe 3-4.

Well.... You ARE the math guy

been out in the sticks...it was a great season for the Astros.

from a depth in the playoffs standpoint this year (2015) is tied with 1981 for the 5th best season in club history (behind 2005, 2004, 1986, 1980).

one thing I'm hoping for in 2016...George Springer to take the next step so to speak and hit for a higher batting average. Make the jump to a .290 or .300 hitter. He improved from .235 to .276 this year.

and one mild concern...I remember back in 1997 when the Biggio-Bagwell group broke through to the playoffs for the first time. No one thought it would take 7 more years (2004) before the Astros would finally win a playoff series.

I hope that doesn't happen with the Correa-Springer-Altuve group

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Is that real?

Am I still drunk?!

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I think the answer to both of your questions is yes

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Third is a problem with no real options.



Gattis is fine as a DH so long as he bats 6th or 7th and not 4th.

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Gattis is a DH and all he does is hit. Valbeauna is at least an acceptable defender. Valbeauna wRC+ 105 > Gattis 99. Under 100 is below league average. If 3rd is a problem then DH is a much bigger problem.

I think Lowrie/Valbuena is an acceptable option at 3rd to be OK with that spot and hope for one of the two to play well. If you stand pat at 3B, you definitely need to upgrade 2 out of 3 offensive holes at 1B, C, and DH though.

Damn, already having withdrawals. I'm going to miss watching this team the next few months.

Ya, I'm pretty much straight Aggie football. I can't even begin to think about basketball. This is going t be a long transition to get out of baseball focus.

Yes, huge in to Aggie football, so we've got that but it's not a daily sport like baseball. Will be at the game Saturday, hoping for a big win.

I've wondered all season (and have no clue to the answer) how much of Hinch's decision making is what he believes versus what upper management wants. Luhnow and Megdal have built this operation off of a formula and I find it hard to believe they then hire a traditional manager to go with his gut. We know they are huge believers in statistics and predictive analysis and they hired a manager that will go with what they want. My question is how much freedom does Hinch have? Is the lineup 100% his call each night? Lefty-righty decisions? Has anyone heard anything regarding this?

Just took the clutch city sign out of my yard.

I'd have to go back and watch (which I probably won't) but I really feel like Hinch was different in April. It felt like he made guy decisions rather than the Luhnow way, or what we witnessed last year with Porter. Then as the year progressed be started making the same moves Porter would do last year, and just go with the "matchup". I'd be very curious to find out what all goes on behind closed doors but I know I never will.

Does Biggio have a future with the organization? Just curious what you guys think.

Just dropping in to say that I've enjoyed reading y'alls insight this season. I'm disappointed we couldn't close it out, but given the early expectations, I'll gladly take a trip to the playoffs that included knocking the Yankees out of it.

See y'all next season!

based on all the experience he had coaching a small private high school?

remember this is the same franchise that brought Dierker out of the broadsast booth to manage for 5 years...and by and large it worked

you guys would eat Big alive every time one of his moves didn't work out.

Just checking in for the day and I am happy to learn that we have mathematically determined that Hinch does in fact blow.

Try arguing with MATH, Ag07!!!!!!!!!

Not sure if this has been posted already, but some of the KC radio guys had a little fun with how our PA announcer, Bob Ford, was announcing the Royals over the weekend. I noticed he sounded a bit more intense on Sunday while at the game.

Astros PA Announcer Bob Ford is awesome!

So aj takes the astros to the playoffs for the first time in 10 years and has a winning record 3 years removed from 110 loses and we should fire him? I am not a fan of the guy but to be callin for his head is pretty out there. Let's see what happens next year. If they digress then I could see an argument for that.

Welp... I guess it goes to show having two aces isn't always enough.... We were just as successful as the dodgers, with about 1/4th of the payroll.

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I was lucky enough to be there with my dad. It was awesome.

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I was there too! Had a blast minus all the Pedro fans.

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I was lucky enough to be there with my dad. It was awesome.

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I was there too! Had a blast minus all the Pedro fans.

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lol



Where you there? The Dominicans didn't show that much common courtesy. They would continually walked in front of or behind my photographs and I got crop dusted a few times. Very poor behavior inside the HOF.


As for the ceromony, barked at a few of them for carrying on a very loud conversation when Biggio started his speech. They abruptly shut the **** up. Must have been intimidated by my cowboy hat.

haha sounds about right. Unfortunately I was not, but am jealous you got to go!

If you went to our ALDS game 3 or 4, go find yourself!